Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center
Phoenix Suns -5.5-114
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 115-108
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
New Orleans Phoenix Record 8-23 16-13 ← Off Rating 110.7 113.0 ← Def Rating 117.2 113.5 ← Net Rating -6.4 -0.5 ← Key Injuries Jones (OUT) Green (OUT)
Gary's Take Don't let the New Orleans Pelicans' recent hot streak fool you—this is a classic "sell high" spot on a bad team facing a structural mismatch. While New Orleans has strung together a few wins, the underlying metrics tell a completely different story. The gap between these teams is massive, with Phoenix boasting a Net Rating nearly six points better per 100 possessions. The market is overreacting to a small sample size of Pelicans success while ignoring the season-long reality of their 25th-ranked defense.
The absence of Herbert Jones is the nail in the coffin for New Orleans in this matchup. Jones is the defensive glue for the Pelicans, and without him, they have absolutely no answer for Devin Booker. Phoenix's offense, efficient even without Jalen Green, should feast on a Pelicans unit allowing a defensive rating of 117.2. You simply cannot hide poor perimeter defenders against a scorer of Booker's caliber, and New Orleans lacks the personnel to slow him down.
Furthermore, the regression numbers are screaming for a correction. Phoenix has been mathematically "unlucky" relative to their point differential (expected 18 wins vs. actual 16), while New Orleans has overperformed their expected win total. We have a superior team, motivated by playoff positioning, facing a lottery squad missing their best defender. The efficiency gap here suggests a double-digit margin.
Lay the points with the better team. Phoenix Suns -5.5.
Injuries noted
Phoenix Suns: Grayson Allen (Out) — Dec 25: Allen (knee) will not play during Friday's game against the Pelicans.; Jalen Green (Out) — Dec 22: Green (hamstring) continues to make good progress in his recovery and will be re-evaluated in 2-to-3 weeks, Kellan Olson of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Koby Brea (Questionable) — Dec 10: Brea recorded 29 points (10-18 FG, 5-11 3Pt, 4-5 FT), nine rebounds, three assists and one turnover across 39 minutes of Sunday's 123-105 G League loss to the Stockton Kings.
New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Poole (Day-To-Day) — Dec 26: Poole (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for Friday's game against the Suns.; Herbert Jones (Out) — Dec 25: Jones (ankle) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Suns.; Dejounte Murray (Out) — Sep 25: ESPN's Shams Charania reported Wednesday that Murray (Achilles) could return right after New Years, according to Pelicans Film Room.
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored December 26, 2025 at 4:56 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Devin BookerUNDER 7.5 Assists Assists-138
WActual 5
Devin Booker's assist line of 7.5 is significantly higher than both his season and recent performance data suggest it should be. While he did have an 11-assist game recently, he has failed to reach 8 assists in four of his last five games, averaging just 5.6 APG during that span.
His season average of 6.6 APG is also nearly a full assist below the 7.5 line, providing a solid baseline for an under bet. With Phoenix missing secondary scorers like Grayson Allen, Booker may be forced to look for his own shot more frequently, potentially reducing his playmaking opportunities.
Historical context shows Booker has massive scoring potential in New Orleans, which often leads to him being more of a finisher than a facilitator. Both teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back further supports a lower-assist environment due to potential fatigue and reduced offensive sharpness.
Saddiq BeyOVER 14.5 Points Points-110
LActual 9
Saddiq Bey is positioned for a high-usage night with the Pelicans missing key offensive contributors Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones, while Jordan Poole remains questionable. Over his last five games, Bey has stepped up significantly, averaging 17.4 PPG, which is nearly three points higher than tonight's 14.5 line.
He has cleared this scoring threshold in three of his last five outings, showing explosive potential with games of 19, 18, and 29 points. His minutes are secure, averaging nearly 30 per game recently, and the game total is set at a high 241.5, suggesting plenty of scoring opportunities.
Given the depleted New Orleans roster and his recent scoring surge, Bey is a strong candidate to hit the over. The statistical cushion provided by his recent 17.4 PPG average makes this 14.5 line excellent value.
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