Daily archive

2025-12-27

The stored Gary board for Sat, Dec 27. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

TALE OF THE TAPE Orlando Denver Record 17-14 22-8 ← Off Rating 112.9 123.8 ← Def Rating 110.8 ← 115.1 Net Rating +2.1 +8.7 ← Key Injuries Wagner/Suggs Gordon/Braun Gary's Take This is a scheduling hammer dropping on a depleted roster. The Orlando Magic are in a brutal spot tonight—playing the second leg of a back-to-back with a battered lineup against a Denver Nuggets team that has been resting since Christmas Eve. In the NBA, rest discrepancies like this usually translate to a significant performance dip for the tired team, especially when they are chasing the ball against a passing savant like Nikola Jokic. The statistical chasm between these offenses is hard to ignore. Denver enters with a blistering 123.8 offensive rating, nearly 11 points per 100 possessions better than Orlando. While the Magic have built their identity on defense this season, that unit is compromised without Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. You simply cannot replace that level of perimeter containment and two-way impact with bench minutes, particularly against a Nuggets squad that executes half-court offense better than anyone. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray should have their way with an Orlando frontcourt that lacks the depth to throw different looks at them for 48 minutes. Paolo Banchero is being asked to do everything offensively right now, but efficient scoring becomes a tall task when the defense can load up on you without fear of secondary creators. Denver has been road warriors all season with a 12-3 record away from home, proving their execution travels. Expect the Nuggets to push the pace early and test Orlando's legs. The efficiency gap, combined with the rest advantage and injury disparity, suggests this line is short. Denver Nuggets -4.0 is the play.

Denver Nuggets -4-110

CONF

85%

NBA

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

TALE OF THE TAPE Atlanta New York Record 15-17 21-9 ← Off Rating 113.0 120.9 ← Def Rating 114.7 112.7 ← Net Rating -1.7 +8.2 ← Key Injuries Porzingis (OUT) Hart (OUT) Gary's Take This matchup presents one of the cleanest situational edges on the board. The Atlanta Hawks are spiraling in the wrong direction, entering on a five-game losing streak and playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a home loss to Miami. Fatigue is a real factor here, especially for a defense that already ranks in the bottom third of the league. Conversely, the New York Knicks arrive with two full days of rest since their Christmas Day victory, giving fresh legs to a rotation that thrives on intensity. The statistical mismatch in the paint is where this game will be decided. New York boasts an elite offensive rebounding rate of nearly 30%, and with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the interior, they should feast on second-chance points against an undersized Atlanta frontcourt missing Kristaps Porzingis. While Josh Hart is out, the Knicks' offensive efficiency remains elite (120.9 rating), powered by Jalen Brunson's ability to control the pace and find mismatches. Atlanta simply doesn't have the defensive personnel to stay in front of New York's perimeter creators while simultaneously boxing out their bigs. Trae Young is still finding his rhythm post-injury, and expecting him to carry a tired team against a rested, disciplined Tom Thibodeau-style defense (now under Mike Brown but retaining the personnel) is a tall order. The efficiency gap here is massive—nearly 10 points per 100 possessions—and the rest discrepancy only widens that chasm. I expect the Knicks to pull away in the second half as Atlanta's legs go heavy. Lay the points with the better, fresher team.

Knicks -6-106

CONF

82%

NBA

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets

TALE OF THE TAPE Houston Cleveland Record 18-10 ← 17-15 Off Rating 118.9 ← 115.8 Def Rating 111.5 ← 113.5 Net Rating +7.4 ← +2.4 Key Injuries Sengun (Q) Strus (OUT) Gary's Take There is a specific statistical mismatch in this game that is simply too large to ignore: rebounding. The Houston Rockets aren't just winning the glass; they are demolishing teams with a league-leading 37.3% offensive rebounding rate. Contrast that with a Cleveland Cavaliers squad that secures just 23.6% of available offensive boards, and you have the mechanism for a blowout. Even if Alperen Sengun (questionable) sits, the presence of Steven Adams and Jabari Smith Jr. ensures Houston generates extra possessions all night long. Possession volume is King, but efficiency is Queen, and Houston holds the crown there too. The Rockets boast a +7.4 net rating compared to Cleveland's +2.4, a gap that widens significantly when Houston plays at the Toyota Center (8-2 home record). Kevin Durant provides the closing ability that Houston needs in half-court sets, while Cleveland's offense, despite Donovan Mitchell's brilliance, often stalls on the road where they hold a losing record (6-7). Finally, look at the shooting variance. Houston is knocking down 41.1% of their threes compared to Cleveland's 35.0%. When you combine better shooting accuracy with significantly more shot attempts due to offensive rebounds, the math becomes insurmountable for the visitors. Cleveland might keep pace early with transition buckets, but Houston's physicality and second-chance points will wear them down by the fourth quarter. Houston Rockets -4.5 -106.

Houston Rockets -4-106

CONF

78%

NBA

Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

TALE OF THE TAPE Sacramento Dallas Record 7-23 12-20 ← Off Rating 108.4 ← 106.4 Def Rating 118.9 110.3 → Net Rating -10.5 -3.9 ← Key Injuries Sabonis (OUT) Davis (Ques) Murray (OUT) Irving (OUT) LaVine (OUT) Gary's Take Sometimes you have to fade a team that simply has nothing left to give, and right now, that team is the Sacramento Kings. While Dallas has its own issues navigating the post-Luka era and injuries to Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II, Sacramento's situation is catastrophic. Missing Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and Zach LaVine means the Kings are without their primary playmaker, best defender, and top perimeter scorer all at once. The numbers illustrate just how broken Sacramento is defensively without their frontcourt anchors. They are allowing a staggering 118.9 points per 100 possessions, a defensive rating that essentially guarantees open looks for opponents. Even if Anthony Davis (listed questionable) is limited or sits, the interior mismatch favors Dallas. Sacramento lacks any legitimate rim protection, meaning Daniel Gafford and rookie Cooper Flagg should feast in the paint and on the boards. Dallas holds a massive edge in overall team quality, evidenced by a Net Rating gap of nearly 7 points. While the Kings rely on aging veterans like DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook to salvage possessions, they simply don't have the cohesive structure to defend for 48 minutes. Dallas has been competitive despite their record, whereas Sacramento is getting run off the floor with a double-digit negative net rating. Lay the short number with the team that still plays defense.

Dallas Mavericks -3-110

CONF

75%

NCAAF

LSU Tigers @ Houston Cougars

TALE OF THE TAPE Houston LSU Record 9-3 ← 7-5 Offense YPG 391.0 ← 332.7 Defense YPG 348.1 → 319.6 Scoring (TDs) 38 ← 26 Key Absences None Delane, Haulcy Brown, Anderson Gary's Take This matchup is the definition of a bowl season trap: the public sees the "LSU" logo and assumes talent superiority, ignoring the fact that the actual team taking the field is a shell of its regular-season self. We have a massive motivation and stability mismatch that the line simply hasn't accounted for. LSU enters NRG Stadium—which is effectively a true home game for Houston—in complete disarray. Head coach Brian Kelly has been fired, leaving an interim staff that is essentially cleaning out their offices as we speak. More critically, the roster attrition is severe. The Tigers are without their top two playmakers on offense (WRs Barion Brown and Aaron Anderson) and their two best defenders (CB Mansoor Delane and S A.J. Haulcy). Those defensive absences are catastrophic against a Houston offense that averages nearly 400 yards per game. On the other sideline, Willie Fritz has Houston playing for a 10-win season with a stable roster and full motivation. Conner Weigman leads an offense that has arguably been more potent than LSU's even before the opt-outs, outgaining the Tigers by nearly 60 yards per game this season. While LSU's season-long defensive numbers look slightly better on paper, those stats were built by players who aren't playing today. We have a motivated, stable team playing at home against a depleted, coachless squad looking ahead to next year. Fade the brand name and back the team that actually wants to be here. Houston covers this short number.

Houston Cougars -1.5-110

CONF

78%

NCAAF

Virginia Cavaliers @ Missouri Tigers

TALE OF THE TAPE Missouri Virginia Record 8-4 10-3 ← Total Offense 429.3 ← 426.3 Total Defense 274.8 ← 313.3 QB Experience Freshman 6th Year ← Key Injuries Pribula/Trotter (OUT) Taylor (GTD) Gary's Take This line is a classic case of "SEC bias" ignoring the roster reality on the field. While Missouri's season-long stats look superior on paper, the team suiting up for the Gator Bowl is a shell of the squad that compiled them. With starting quarterback Beau Pribula and top targets Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson in the portal, Missouri turns the offense over to true freshman Matt Zollers, who has limited collegiate experience. Compounding this, the Tigers lost offensive coordinator Kirby Moore and are relying on a "collaborative" play-calling effort that often spells disaster in bowl games. Virginia, conversely, enters with massive stability and motivation advantages. They are chasing an 11th win—a feat never accomplished in school history—and are led by 6th-year senior quarterback Chandler Morris. The experience gap between Morris (2,802 passing yards, 16 TDs) and a freshman making his third start is enormous, especially against a Missouri defense missing its heart and soul, linebacker Josiah Trotter. While Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy is a legitimate threat who could control the clock, Virginia's defense knows he is the *only* option. If the Cavaliers load the box and force Zollers to beat them through the air with backup receivers, this game flips fast. Bowl games often come down to who wants to be there and who has the quarterback to execute. Virginia checks both boxes emphaticallly against a depleted opponent in transition. The wrong team is favored. Virginia Cavaliers +4.0 -110.

Virginia Cavaliers +4.0-110

CONF

75%

NCAAF

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ BYU Cougars

TALE OF THE TAPE BYU Cougars Georgia Tech Recent Form 3-2 ← 2-3 Pass Offense (YPG) 213.2 → 263.3 Rush Offense (YPG) 184.4 → 203.0 Total Defense (YPG) 355.8 ← 397.0 Key Injuries RBs (OUT) WRs (OUT) Gary's Take Bowl games often come down to who is left standing, and while both teams have significant opt-outs, the structural damage to the BYU Cougars' offense is far more critical. BYU enters this game without its top two running backs, LJ Martin and Sione Moa, leaving the backfield to players who have barely seen the field all season. That puts an immense burden on true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who is talented but playing on a healing ankle against a Power 4 defense. Conversely, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets retain their most important piece: quarterback Haynes King. While losing top receiver Eric Singleton Jr. hurts the explosive passing game, King's dual-threat ability is the engine that drives this offense. Georgia Tech averages over 200 rushing yards per game, and even without their offensive coordinator, the identity of this team remains physically imposing on the ground with Jamal Haynes. Expect Georgia Tech to control the clock and keep the pressure off their struggling defense by exploiting BYU's inability to run the ball. When you can get more than a field goal with the better, more experienced quarterback in a chaotic bowl environment, you take it every time. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3.5 -105.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3.5-105

CONF

72%

Player props

NBA · Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Egor Demin

Egor Demin has seen a significant surge in usage and production following the trade of Dennis Schröder and current injuries to the Nets' top scorers. He is currently averaging 14.0 points over his last five games, including performances of 20, 16, 14, and 17 points.

OVER 8.5 Points-125

· L5 points: 20, 16, 14, 17, 3
· Season avg: 9.4 PPG
· Nets missing top scorers Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

Ryan Rollins

Ryan Rollins has become a focal point of the Milwaukee offense following the team's roster overhaul and the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Rollins is averaging 17.1 PPG on the season, which provides a significant 2.6-point cushion over this 14.5-point line.

OVER 14.5 Points-118

· Season avg: 17.1 PPG
· L4 points: 15, 23, 16, 19
· Usage Boost: Damian Lillard waived and Giannis Antetokounmpo OUT

NBA · Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is in a prime position to shatter this line with Sacramento missing its top two offensive engines in Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis. While his season average of 19.0 PPG is below the line, his recent form tells a different story, as he has averaged 25.8 PPG over his last five games.

OVER 21.5 Points-106

· L5 scoring: 37, 27, 15, 33, 17
· Season avg: 19.0 PPG
· L5 average: 25.8 PPG (calculated from fetch_player_game_logs)

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic enters this matchup averaging 11.0 assists per game on the season, providing a statistical edge against the 10.5 prop line. His recent form is even more elite, having recorded 15, 14, 13, 5, and 13 assists over his last five games, clearing this line in four of those five contests.

OVER 10.5 Assists+103

· Season avg: 11.0 APG
· L5 assists: 15, 14, 13, 5, 13
· Last meeting vs ORL (Dec 19): 13 assists

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Devin Booker

Devin Booker is the primary engine of the Phoenix offense, especially with Jalen Green and Grayson Allen sidelined. He demonstrated his scoring dominance against this same Pelicans defense just one night ago, dropping 30 points in 36 minutes of action.

OVER 26.5 Points-114

· L5 scoring: 30, 21, 38, 25, 27 (avg 28.2)
· Season average: 25.6 PPG
· Scored 30 points in 36 minutes against New Orleans on Dec 26

NBA · New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu's 17.5-point line is significantly inflated compared to both his season average of 15.6 PPG and his recent form. Over his last five games, Okongwu is averaging just 12.8 PPG, falling under this line in four of those five contests.

UNDER 17.5 Points-121

· Season avg: 15.6 PPG
· L5 points: 12, 10, 23, 7, 12
· L5 average: 12.8 PPG

NBA · Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo is in a prime position to exceed his assist line with veteran Mike Conley listed as questionable for the second night of a back-to-back . DiVincenzo has already taken on more playmaking responsibility, recording exactly 8 assists in each of his last two games.

OVER 4.5 Assists-101

· L5 assists: 8, 8, 4, 1, 4
· Season avg: 4.0 APG
· Mike Conley (37) is questionable on 2nd night of B2B

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic is in an elite spot to dominate the boards tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is the worst rebounding unit in the NBA. The Bucks rank last in the league in rebounds per game (40.3), and they will be without their best glass-cleaner, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

OVER 8.5 Rebounds+100

· Season avg: 9.1 RPG
· L5 rebounds: 7, 10, 5, 15, 9
· Matchup: Milwaukee ranks last in NBA in rebounds per game

NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is currently the 4th leading scorer in the NBA, averaging 30.7 points per game. This season average provides a substantial 2.2-point cushion over the 28.5-point prop line.

OVER 28.5 Points-105

· Season avg: 30.7 PPG
· L5 pts: 34, 27, 30, 32, 17
· NBA rank: 4th in scoring

NBA · Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware has become the focal point of the Heat's interior presence, especially with Bam Adebayo's status uncertain due to a back/calf injury that caused him to miss the last game . Ware currently leads the team in rebounding with an average of 10.7 per game.

OVER 10.5 Rebounds-126

· Season avg: 10.7 RPG
· Last 5 form: Double-digit rebounds in 4 of last 5 games
· Team role: Leading team in rebounding

NBA · Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama enters this matchup with a significant statistical cushion, as his season average of 11.8 rebounds per game is more than three full boards above the 8.5 line. Despite a recent minute restriction that limits him to roughly 20-26 minutes, he has remained highly productive on the glass, averaging 9.6 rebounds over his last five games and exceeding the 8.5 mark in three of his last four outings.

OVER 8.5 Rebounds-132

· Season average: 11.8 RPG
· Last 5 rebounds: 11, 5, 12, 12, 8 (Avg: 9.6)
· Utah Jazz allow a league-high 127.5 PPG and are missing center Walker Kessler

NBA · Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle has established himself as a consistent playmaker for the Spurs, matching his 7.0 APG season average exactly over his last five games. He has successfully cleared the 6.5 assist threshold in four of those five outings, showing high reliability in his role.

OVER 6.5 Assists-142

· Season average: 7.0 APG
· Last 5 assists: 7, 3, 11, 7, 7 (Avg: 7.0)
· Has cleared 6.5 assists in 4 of his last 5 games

NBA · Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

Cooper Flagg

Rookie Cooper Flagg has seen a significant role expansion due to the absence of Kyrie Irving and the questionable status of Anthony Davis. Flagg is currently averaging 24.4 PPG over his last 10 games, demonstrating a clear upward trend from his 19.4 PPG season average.

OVER 23.5 Points-130

· L5 scoring: 27, 33, 16, 24, 23
· Season avg: 19.4 PPG
· L10 avg: 24.4 PPG

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

Anthony Black

Anthony Black has transitioned into a primary scoring role for the Magic with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs sidelined. While his season average of 14.4 PPG is below the line, his recent performance tells a different story; he has averaged 17.5 PPG over his last six starts and has scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games.

OVER 17.5 Points-107

· Season avg: 14.4 PPG
· Recent form: 17.5 PPG over last 6 starts
· L5 scoring: 24, 22, 20, 22 points

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson

Despite playing in a bench role with a minutes restriction (21-25 minutes), Zion Williamson has remained remarkably efficient, leading the Pelicans in scoring in four consecutive games. He is averaging 21.0 PPG in December and has cleared this 18.5-point threshold in four of his last five outings, including a 20-point performance against Phoenix yesterday. His season average of 21.7 PPG provides a healthy cushion over this line, and he thrives against a Suns team that may be missing starting center Mark Williams due to back-to-back rest. Zion's ability to generate high-percentage looks in limited minutes makes this a strong over candidate against a Phoenix defense that allowed him 20 points in just 28 minutes in their previous meeting.

OVER 18.5 Points-125

· L6 scoring: 18, 9, 29, 24, 26, 20 (avg 21.0)
· Season average: 21.7 PPG
· Scored 20 points against Phoenix on Dec 26

NBA · New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled with consistency recently, averaging 18.2 PPG over his last five games, which is well below his season average of 21.9 and this 22.5 prop line. He has failed to exceed 22.5 points in four of his last five games, including a disappointing 11-point performance on Christmas Day.

UNDER 22.5 Points-108

· Season avg: 21.9 PPG
· L5 points: 11, 40, 2, 22, 16
· L5 average: 18.2 PPG

NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson has stepped into a primary offensive role for the Rockets following Fred VanVleet's season-ending ACL injury. Over his last five games, Thompson is averaging 20.4 points per game, significantly outperforming this 17.5-point line.

OVER 17.5 Points-102

· L5 pts: 26, 19, 18, 16
· L5 avg: 20.4 PPG
· Usage: Primary ball-handler with Fred VanVleet OUT (ACL)

NBA · Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Norman Powell

Norman Powell is currently the leading scorer for the Miami Heat, averaging 23.8 points per game on the season . With Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier both ruled out for this matchup, Powell's offensive responsibilities will be significantly expanded as the primary ball-handler and shot-creator . This creates a substantial usage boost that is not yet fully reflected in his season averages.

OVER 23.5 Points-115

· Season avg: 23.8 PPG
· Roster status: Heat scoring leader with Herro and Rozier ruled OUT
· Matchup: Pacers allow 118.4 PPG on the road

NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is facing an elite Houston Texans defense that ranks #5 overall and limits opponents to just 16.3 points per game. Over his last five games, Herbert has struggled to reach this line, averaging only 176.2 passing yards per game, which creates a massive 36.3-yard edge for the under.

UNDER 212.5 Pass Yds-111

· L5 passing yards: 300, 210, 139, 151, 81
· L5 avg: 176.2 pass yds vs line 212.5
· HOU pass defense: #5, allows only 16.3 ppg

NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has been the primary target for Baltimore, exceeding 52.5 yards in four of his last five games. His recent yardage totals include 84, 68, 124, and 58 yards, proving he can produce despite variance in quarterback play.

OVER 52.5 Reception Yds-115

· L5 receiving yards: 84, 68, 124, 6, 58
· L5 avg: 68.0 yards vs line 52.5
· Green Bay pass D: #10, allows 211.3 yds/g

NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud faces a difficult environment today with both of his starting offensive tackles, Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery, ruled out. This will likely force Stroud into a quick-passing game script to avoid the Chargers' pass rush, limiting deep shots and overall yardage.

UNDER 220.5 Pass Yds-111

· L5 passing yards: 187, 260, 203, 276, 79
· L5 avg: 201.0 pass yds vs line 220.5
· Starting tackles Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery are OUT

NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Nico Collins

Nico Collins is the primary engine of the Texans' passing attack, maintaining a high 23.4% target share. Despite the expected struggles of the offensive line, Collins is the safety valve and primary playmaker Stroud will target on quick throws.

OVER 64.5 Reception Yds-112

· L5 receiving yards: 59, 85, 121, 98, 55
· L5 avg: 83.6 rec yds vs line 64.5
· Season target share: 23.4%

NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is the cornerstone of the Ravens' offense, especially with Lamar Jackson sidelined. Henry has averaged 89.2 rushing yards over his last five games, surpassing the 73.5-yard line three times with totals of 128, 100, and 94.

OVER 73.5 Rush Yds-112

· L5 rushing yards: 128, 100, 94, 60, 64
· L5 avg: 89.2 yards vs line 73.5
· Green Bay rush D: #10, allows 117.0 yds/g

NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Malik Willis

Malik Willis is a mobile quarterback whom the Packers have used extremely conservatively in the passing game. In Week 16, Willis played nearly the entire game following Jordan Love’s injury but only recorded 11 pass attempts.

UNDER 24.5 Pass Attempts-130

· Week 16 (12/20/25) vs CHI: 11 pass attempts in 3+ quarters
· Week 18 (2024) vs CHI: 13 pass attempts
· Weather: 37°F with 40% drizzle

NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey's recent production has been well below the 42.5-yard line, averaging only 25.4 yards over his last five games. He has failed to reach 42.5 yards in every single one of those five games, with a high of only 43 yards (barely over if the line was lower).

UNDER 42.5 Reception Yds-115

· L5 receiving yards: 43, 20, 12, 39, 13
· L5 avg: 25.4 rec yds vs line 42.5
· HOU pass defense ranking: #5

NFL · Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Khalil Mack

Khalil Mack is presented with a perfect matchup as he faces a Houston offensive line missing both starting tackles. The Texans are forced to start backups against Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu, a scenario that heavily favors the Chargers' pass rush. C.J.

OVER 0.25 Sacks-114

· L5 sacks total: 1.5
· HOU O-line status: Starting tackles Brown and Ersery are OUT
· C.J. Stroud L5 sacks taken: 8

NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs is the primary beneficiary of the Packers' shift to a run-heavy approach with Malik Willis at quarterback. Jacobs has exceeded this 50.5-yard line in three of his last five games, recording 73, 86, and 83 yards in those contests.

OVER 50.5 Rush Yds-112

· L5 rushing yards: 36, 73, 86, 83, 40
· L5 avg: 63.6 yards vs line 50.5
· Ravens rush D: #13, allows 108.9 yds/g

NFL · Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Malik Willis

Malik Willis's rushing ability is a core component of the Packers' offensive strategy with him as the starter. Last week against Chicago, Willis gained 44 rushing yards on 10 carries, demonstrating his willingness to scramble and his involvement in designed runs.

OVER 30.5 Rush Yds-114

· Week 16 vs CHI: 44 rush yds on 10 carries
· L3 avg: 21.0 rush yds
· Ravens rush D: #13

Graded results

Games

W
Baltimore Ravens +3 +100
NFL · 41-24
L
Chargers -1.5 -110
NFL · 20-16
L
Denver Nuggets -4 -110
NBA · 126-127
L
Knicks -6 -106
NBA · 128-125
W
Houston Rockets -4 -106
NBA · 100-117
L
Dallas Mavericks -3 -110
NBA · 107-113
W
Houston Cougars -1.5 -110
NCAAF · 35-38
W
Virginia Cavaliers +4.0 -110
NCAAF · 13-7
L
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3.5 -105
NCAAF · 21-25

Props

L
Amen Thompson · over
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets · Actual 13
W
Anthony Black · over
Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic · Actual 38
L
C.J. Stroud · under
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers · Actual 244
L
Cooper Flagg · over
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings · Actual 23
L
DeMar DeRozan · over
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings · Actual 9
W
Derrick Henry · over
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers · Actual 216
L
Devin Booker · over
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 20
L
Donovan Mitchell · over
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets · Actual 0
W
Donte DiVincenzo · over
Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves · Actual 6
L
Egor Demin · over
Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves · Actual 7
L
Josh Jacobs · over
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers · Actual 3
L
Justin Herbert · under
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers · Actual 236
L
Karl-Anthony Towns · under
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 36
L
Kel'el Ware · over
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat · Actual 7
L
Khalil Mack · over
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers · Actual 0
W
Ladd McConkey · under
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers · Actual 31
W
Malik Willis · under
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers · Actual 21
W
Malik Willis · over
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers · Actual 60
L
Nico Collins · over
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers · Actual 57
W
Nikola Jokic · over
Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic · Actual 12
L
Nikola Vucevic · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls · Actual 7
L
Norman Powell · over
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat · Actual 23
L
Onyeka Okongwu · under
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 31
W
Ryan Rollins · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls · Actual 20
W
Stephon Castle · over
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs · Actual 7
L
Victor Wembanyama · over
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs · Actual 7
L
Zay Flowers · over
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers · Actual 30
W
Zion Williamson · over
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 22