NBA · Sat, Dec 27 · 8:10 PM

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks

State Farm Arena

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Hawks· -106

TALE OF THE TAPE Atlanta New York Record 15-17 21-9 ← Off Rating 113.0 120.9 ← Def Rating 114.7 112.7 ← Net Rating -1.7 +8.2 ← Key Injuries Porzingis (OUT) Hart (OUT) Gary's Take This matchup presents one of the cleanest situational edges on the board. The Atlanta Hawks are spiraling in the wrong direction, entering on a five-game losing streak and playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a home loss to Miami. Fatigue is a real factor here, especially for a defense that already ranks in the bottom third of the league. Conversely, the New York Knicks arrive with two full days of rest since their Christmas Day victory, giving fresh legs to a rotation that thrives on intensity. The statistical mismatch in the paint is where this game will be decided. New York boasts an elite offensive rebounding rate of nearly 30%, and with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the interior, they should feast on second-chance points against an undersized Atlanta frontcourt missing Kristaps Porzingis. While Josh Hart is out, the Knicks' offensive efficiency remains elite (120.9 rating), powered by Jalen Brunson's ability to control the pace and find mismatches. Atlanta simply doesn't have the defensive personnel to stay in front of New York's perimeter creators while simultaneously boxing out their bigs. Trae Young is still finding his rhythm post-injury, and expecting him to carry a tired team against a rested, disciplined Tom Thibodeau-style defense (now under Mike Brown but retaining the personnel) is a tall order. The efficiency gap here is massive—nearly 10 points per 100 possessions—and the rest discrepancy only widens that chasm. I expect the Knicks to pull away in the second half as Atlanta's legs go heavy. Lay the points with the better, fresher team.

The pick & result

Published pick: Knicks -6 -106
Published odds: -106
Result: Lost
Final score: 128-125

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

Atlanta New York Record 15-17 21-9 ← Off Rating 113.0 120.9 ← Def Rating 114.7 112.7 ← Net Rating -1.7 +8.2 ← Key Injuries Porzingis (OUT) Hart (OUT)

Gary's Take This matchup presents one of the cleanest situational edges on the board. The Atlanta Hawks are spiraling in the wrong direction, entering on a five-game losing streak and playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a home loss to Miami. Fatigue is a real factor here, especially for a defense that already ranks in the bottom third of the league. Conversely, the New York Knicks arrive with two full days of rest since their Christmas Day victory, giving fresh legs to a rotation that thrives on intensity.

The statistical mismatch in the paint is where this game will be decided. New York boasts an elite offensive rebounding rate of nearly 30%, and with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the interior, they should feast on second-chance points against an undersized Atlanta frontcourt missing Kristaps Porzingis. While Josh Hart is out, the Knicks' offensive efficiency remains elite (120.9 rating), powered by Jalen Brunson's ability to control the pace and find mismatches. Atlanta simply doesn't have the defensive personnel to stay in front of New York's perimeter creators while simultaneously boxing out their bigs.

Trae Young is still finding his rhythm post-injury, and expecting him to carry a tired team against a rested, disciplined Tom Thibodeau-style defense (now under Mike Brown but retaining the personnel) is a tall order. The efficiency gap here is massive—nearly 10 points per 100 possessions—and the rest discrepancy only widens that chasm. I expect the Knicks to pull away in the second half as Atlanta's legs go heavy. Lay the points with the better, fresher team.

Injuries noted

New York Knicks: Josh Hart (Out) — Dec 26: Hart (ankle) will not play Saturday against the Hawks.; Miles McBride (Questionable) — Dec 26: McBride (ankle) is questionable for Saturday's game against the Hawks.; Landry Shamet (Out) — Dec 24: Shamet (shoulder) is out for Thursday's game against the Cavaliers.

Atlanta Hawks: N'Faly Dante (Out) — Dec 23: Dante will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.; Eli John Ndiaye (Out) — Dec 21: Ndiaye has been diagnosed with a torn left labrum and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.; Kristaps Porzingis (Out) — Dec 14: Porzingis will miss at least the next two weeks of action as he undergoes further testing for the illness he's dealing with, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored December 27, 2025 at 9:20 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ONYEKA OKONGWUPOINTS UNDER 17.5
NBAAtlanta Hawks· -121
LOST · ACTUAL 31
Onyeka Okongwu's 17.5-point line is significantly inflated compared to both his season average of 15.6 PPG and his recent form. Over his last five games, Okongwu is averaging just 12.8 PPG, falling under this line in four of those five contests. Even with heavy recent usage, averaging 35.6 minutes per game, he has failed to consistently reach high scoring totals, with outputs of 12, 10, 7, and 12 points in his recent sample. The Hawks are playing the second night of a back-to-back, which often leads to reduced efficiency and fatigue-related scoring dips. Facing a Knicks team that plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA (98.49), Okongwu will likely see fewer offensive possessions than usual. Given that he is producing 4.7 points below this line recently, the Under provides a massive statistical cushion.
Onyeka Okongwu
Points under 17.5
-121 · LOST · ACTUAL 31
Atlanta Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu's 17.5-point line is significantly inflated compared to both his season average of 15.6 PPG and his recent form. Over his last five games, Okongwu is averaging just 12.8 PPG, falling under this line in four of those five contests.
Even with heavy recent usage, averaging 35.6 minutes per game, he has failed to consistently reach high scoring totals, with outputs of 12, 10, 7, and 12 points in his recent sample. The Hawks are playing the second night of a back-to-back, which often leads to reduced efficiency and fatigue-related scoring dips.
Facing a Knicks team that plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA (98.49), Okongwu will likely see fewer offensive possessions than usual. Given that he is producing 4.7 points below this line recently, the Under provides a massive statistical cushion.
GARY'S PICK
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNSPOINTS UNDER 22.5
NBANew York Knicks· -108
LOST · ACTUAL 36
Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled with consistency recently, averaging 18.2 PPG over his last five games, which is well below his season average of 21.9 and this 22.5 prop line. He has failed to exceed 22.5 points in four of his last five games, including a disappointing 11-point performance on Christmas Day. Tonight's matchup is particularly difficult, as he faces Clint Capela, a defender who has historically dominated their head-to-head matchups with a 20-5 career winning record. The Knicks' offensive system under Mike Brown remains one of the slowest in the league (29th in pace), limiting the total number of possessions and shot attempts available. With Towns trending downward and facing a specific defensive nemesis, he is likely to stay under this total once again. The 4.3-point gap between his recent average and the prop line makes this a high-value under opportunity.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Points under 22.5
-108 · LOST · ACTUAL 36
New York Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled with consistency recently, averaging 18.2 PPG over his last five games, which is well below his season average of 21.9 and this 22.5 prop line. He has failed to exceed 22.5 points in four of his last five games, including a disappointing 11-point performance on Christmas Day.
Tonight's matchup is particularly difficult, as he faces Clint Capela, a defender who has historically dominated their head-to-head matchups with a 20-5 career winning record. The Knicks' offensive system under Mike Brown remains one of the slowest in the league (29th in pace), limiting the total number of possessions and shot attempts available.
With Towns trending downward and facing a specific defensive nemesis, he is likely to stay under this total once again. The 4.3-point gap between his recent average and the prop line makes this a high-value under opportunity.

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