Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Celtics -8-106
CONF 80%
WCashedFinal 140-122
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Indiana Boston Record 6-24 18-11 → Off Rating 107.2 119.1 → Def Rating 113.3 113.2 → Net Rating -6.1 +5.9 → Key Injuries Haliburton (OUT) Tatum (OUT)
Gary's Take Even with both teams missing their franchise faces in Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum, this matchup is a complete mismatch. The Boston Celtics have successfully reinvented themselves around Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, maintaining an elite offensive rating that ranks third in the league. Indiana, conversely, has collapsed without their primary playmaker, plummeting to the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.
The math here is simple and brutal. Boston scores nearly 12 more points per 100 possessions than Indiana. While Pascal Siakam is doing his best to keep the Pacers afloat, he lacks the supporting cast to trade baskets with a Celtics team that has five players averaging double figures, led by Brown's 29.4 points per night. Indiana's 0-5 skid highlights a roster that simply cannot generate easy offense, whereas Boston's system generates open looks regardless of who is on the floor.
We saw this movie four days ago when Boston controlled the game in a 103-95 win. With that game tape now digested, expect Joe Mazzulla's squad to be even more efficient in attacking Indiana's mediocre defense. The efficiency gap is too wide for home court advantage to bridge. Boston wins this going away.
Injuries noted
Boston Celtics: Chris Boucher (Out) — Dec 25: Boucher is out for Friday's game against the Pacers due to personal reasons.; Jayson Tatum (Out) — Oct 9: The Celtics have not ruled Tatum (Achilles) out for the 2025-26 season, ESPN's Shams Charania reported on the Pat McAfee Show on Thursday.
Indiana Pacers: Isaiah Jackson (Out) — Dec 25: Jackson (concussion) is out for Friday's matchup against the Celtics, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Dec 19: Sheppard (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Pelicans.; Aaron Nesmith (Out) — Nov 15: Nesmith (knee) is expected to be out for around four weeks, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Obi Toppin (Out) — Oct 31: Toppin will undergo surgery to place a screw in his right foot Monday, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Jul 7: Haliburton will miss the entire 2025-26 season while recovering from surgery on his right Achilles tendon, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored December 26, 2025 at 4:56 PM ET.
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- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Source names were not retained with this call.
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Props on this game
2Jaylen BrownOVER 29.5 Points Points-124
WActual 30
Jaylen Brown is in a prime position to excel against a weary Indiana team playing the second leg of a back-to-back with travel. Brown has a history of dominating this matchup, underscored by his 31-point performance against them just five days ago.
The Pacers' defense is already struggling, ranking 22nd in the league, and they will be without their best perimeter defender, Aaron Nesmith. With Boston well-rested and playing at home, Brown's usage and efficiency should remain high.
His season average of 29.4 PPG is right on the line, but the favorable matchup and personnel absences for Indiana provide a significant boost for the over. Expect Brown to exploit the lack of defensive resistance and clear this points threshold.
Pascal SiakamUNDER 22.5 Points Points-117
WActual 11
Despite being the primary scoring option for a shorthanded Pacers squad, Pascal Siakam faces an uphill battle against an elite Celtics defense. Siakam is averaging 20.1 PPG since joining Indiana, which is notably lower than the 22.5 line set for this contest.
The Pacers are playing their second game in 24 hours and had to travel to Boston, a scenario that typically leads to decreased offensive efficiency. Boston's 7th-ranked defense will likely focus its attention on Siakam with multiple key Pacers rotation players ruled out.
Without secondary playmakers like Nembhard to facilitate, Siakam's quality of looks will decrease against a well-rested Boston frontcourt. The 2.4-point cushion between his average and the line makes the under a high-probability play.
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