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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m laying the run and a half because Skenes is built to smother this matchup—174 strikeouts in 154 innings tells you hitters don’t square him up when he’s dictating counts. Colorado’s middle order swings through too many pitches, with Jordan Beck at 131 strikeouts and Hunter Goodman at 121, so once Skenes gets ahead the rallies die on the vine. He keeps traffic scarce with a 0.96 WHIP and a .198 opponent average, which means any loud contact is usually stranded while Pittsburgh plays for a crooked inning. Sure, the Pirates lack big thump—Isiah Kiner-Falefa has just 1 homer—but Andrew McCutchen’s 53 walks and Bryan Reynolds’ 63 RBI show they can manufacture enough support for Skenes to win by two or more.