Sports picks for Tuesday, May 27, 2025
40 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
5
Pacers -3I'm backing the Pacers to cover at home because this team has shown a knack for controlling the pace on their own floor, especially against squads like the Knicks who rely on grit and half-court execution. In a matchup where the environment plays a role, Indiana’s offensive fluidity should give New York fits, particularly late when the pressure ratchets up. The spread is short enough that I believe Indiana’s ability to get out and run, plus their comfort in big home games, gives them the edge to win by more than one possession. If you’ve got the guts to ride with me, I say we take the points and let Indiana’s home-court advantage do the heavy lifting.
I'm backing the Pacers to cover at home because this team has shown a knack for controlling the pace on their own floor, especially against squads like the Knicks who rely on grit and half-court execution. In a matchup where the environment plays a role, Indiana’s offensive fluidity should give New York fits, particularly late when the pressure ratchets up. The spread is short enough that I believe Indiana’s ability to get out and run, plus their comfort in big home games, gives them the edge to win by more than one possession. If you’ve got the guts to ride with me, I say we take the points and let Indiana’s home-court advantage do the heavy lifting.
Cardinals MoneylineI’ve seen enough baseball to know when a pitching edge isn't enough to overcome a lopsided lineup, and that's what you’ve got here. Sugano’s got the tidy ERA and WHIP, sure, but Baltimore’s bats are ice-cold—nobody in their top five is even sniffing .270 and the supposed pop from Mullins and Rutschman has been streaky at best. Meanwhile, St. Louis rolls in with Herrera and Donovan torching the ball, and even with Pallante's higher ERA, the Cardinals’ offense is built to cash in against weak lineups like Baltimore’s. The value on the moneyline is justified—if you’ve got the guts, you ride with the better bats and take St. Louis straight up.
I’ve seen enough baseball to know when a pitching edge isn't enough to overcome a lopsided lineup, and that's what you’ve got here. Sugano’s got the tidy ERA and WHIP, sure, but Baltimore’s bats are ice-cold—nobody in their top five is even sniffing .270 and the supposed pop from Mullins and Rutschman has been streaky at best.
Meanwhile, St. Louis rolls in with Herrera and Donovan torching the ball, and even with Pallante's higher ERA, the Cardinals’ offense is built to cash in against weak lineups like Baltimore’s.
The value on the moneyline is justified—if you’ve got the guts, you ride with the better bats and take St. Louis straight up.
Giants MoneylineI’ve been around long enough to know when a pitching edge matters, and Logan Webb’s consistency—posting a 2.67 ERA and piling up 74 strikeouts—gives the Giants a clear upper hand, especially against a Tigers lineup with holes past Dingler and Torres. Flaherty’s ERA north of 4 and his flyball tendencies play right into the Giants’ approach, with Lee and Ramos both able to capitalize on mistakes. Detroit’s record looks shiny, but this is the kind of matchup where their lack of power bats gets exposed by a workhorse like Webb. If you’ve got the guts, you ride with the team that’s built for grinding out road wins behind a true ace.
I’ve been around long enough to know when a pitching edge matters, and Logan Webb’s consistency—posting a 2.67 ERA and piling up 74 strikeouts—gives the Giants a clear upper hand, especially against a Tigers lineup with holes past Dingler and Torres. Flaherty’s ERA north of 4 and his flyball tendencies play right into the Giants’ approach, with Lee and Ramos both able to capitalize on mistakes. Detroit’s record looks shiny, but this is the kind of matchup where their lack of power bats gets exposed by a workhorse like Webb. If you’ve got the guts, you ride with the team that’s built for grinding out road wins behind a true ace.
Phillies MoneylineI'm not overthinking it—Philadelphia's got the edge here, and it's not just because of their 34-19 record. Suárez is throwing like a man who knows how to command his game, keeping hitters to a .237 average and showing poise with a 1.19 WHIP. Meanwhile, Strider might have the name, but right now he's serving up a .314 average and battling a 5.79 ERA, which Philly's disciplined lineup led by Harper and Sosa is primed to exploit. The Phillies have the steadier hand and the hotter bats—take the home side and let's see if you've got the stomach to cash with the sharper squad.
I'm not overthinking it—Philadelphia's got the edge here, and it's not just because of their 34-19 record. Suárez is throwing like a man who knows how to command his game, keeping hitters to a .237 average and showing poise with a 1.19 WHIP. Meanwhile, Strider might have the name, but right now he's serving up a .314 average and battling a 5.79 ERA, which Philly's disciplined lineup led by Harper and Sosa is primed to exploit. The Phillies have the steadier hand and the hotter bats—take the home side and let's see if you've got the stomach to cash with the sharper squad.
Mets -1.5Look, if you’ve seen the way the Mets have handled business this season—especially at home—you know they don’t mess around with overmatched squads like the White Sox. Megill’s got a tidy 3.56 ERA and is tough on righties, and the Sox lineup just doesn’t have the pop or plate discipline to punish him, with only Meidroth sniffing respectability. Cannon’s been hittable, and this Mets core has enough veteran savvy and power to make him pay, particularly with Lindor heating up. The Mets are built to bury teams like this, and I don’t see them letting off the gas here—if you’ve got the guts, lay the run and a half for a payday.
Look, if you’ve seen the way the Mets have handled business this season—especially at home—you know they don’t mess around with overmatched squads like the White Sox. Megill’s got a tidy 3.56 ERA and is tough on righties, and the Sox lineup just doesn’t have the pop or plate discipline to punish him, with only Meidroth sniffing respectability. Cannon’s been hittable, and this Mets core has enough veteran savvy and power to make him pay, particularly with Lindor heating up. The Mets are built to bury teams like this, and I don’t see them letting off the gas here—if you’ve got the guts, lay the run and a half for a payday.
Player props
20• Ohtani leads MLB with 19 home runs, demonstrating elite power and consistency as the Dodgers' offensive anchor. • His hard contact rate and fly ball metrics put his true HR probability for any game near 28%, especially against an unannounced Guardians starter. • With odds of +225, the payout far exceeds the risk, resulting in a sizable positive expected value. • Ohtani's propensity for multi-hit and multi-HR games further increases the upside potential for this prop.
• Ohtani leads MLB with 19 home runs, demonstrating elite power and consistency as the Dodgers' offensive anchor. • His hard contact rate and fly ball metrics put his true HR probability for any game near 28%, especially against an unannounced Guardians starter. • With odds of +225, the payout far exceeds the risk, resulting in a sizable positive expected value. • Ohtani's propensity for multi-hit and multi-HR games further increases the upside potential for this prop.
• Herrera is hitting .370 with 25 RBI in just 27 hits and a 1.100 OPS, indicating elite run production efficiency. • He has driven in runs in over 45% of games started, showing a high floor even at a modest plate appearance volume. • The +165 odds offer a significant value overlay for a player in outstanding form with demonstrated clutch hitting. • His aggressive approach and tendency to hit with runners in scoring position make this a high-confidence EV+ play.
• Herrera is hitting .370 with 25 RBI in just 27 hits and a 1.100 OPS, indicating elite run production efficiency. • He has driven in runs in over 45% of games started, showing a high floor even at a modest plate appearance volume. • The +165 odds offer a significant value overlay for a player in outstanding form with demonstrated clutch hitting. • His aggressive approach and tendency to hit with runners in scoring position make this a high-confidence EV+ play.
• Riley has an average of .272 but faces significant strikeout risk with 65 Ks in 58 hits, indicating volatility in his ability to record a hit. • His matchup does not present any clear advantage, and his recent form shows more games without hits than with multiple hits. • The +205 line provides an excellent payout for a situation where Riley's true hit probability is likely just below 50%. • The expected value and high return make this a strong value play.
• Riley has an average of .272 but faces significant strikeout risk with 65 Ks in 58 hits, indicating volatility in his ability to record a hit. • His matchup does not present any clear advantage, and his recent form shows more games without hits than with multiple hits. • The +205 line provides an excellent payout for a situation where Riley's true hit probability is likely just below 50%. • The expected value and high return make this a strong value play.
• Dingler is batting .295 with 44 hits in 149 at-bats, giving him a hit rate above 29% per game. • He has demonstrated consistent contact ability and is currently in strong form with 4 home runs and a .761 OPS. • The implied probability of 44.1% at +127 is well below his true hit probability, which is closer to 71%, yielding a substantial edge. • His recent consistency and favorable odds make this one of the highest value props on the slate.
• Dingler is batting .295 with 44 hits in 149 at-bats, giving him a hit rate above 29% per game. • He has demonstrated consistent contact ability and is currently in strong form with 4 home runs and a .761 OPS. • The implied probability of 44.1% at +127 is well below his true hit probability, which is closer to 71%, yielding a substantial edge. • His recent consistency and favorable odds make this one of the highest value props on the slate.
• Schwarber ranks third in MLB with 18 home runs, demonstrating elite power and a strong track record for clearing this line. • His recent form and home run pace indicate a true game-to-game probability near 25%, significantly higher than the implied odds. • The +290 line offers substantial value for a player with top-tier power and consistent home run threats each game. • This is a high-confidence, high-value prop for one of the league’s top sluggers.
• Schwarber ranks third in MLB with 18 home runs, demonstrating elite power and a strong track record for clearing this line. • His recent form and home run pace indicate a true game-to-game probability near 25%, significantly higher than the implied odds. • The +290 line offers substantial value for a player with top-tier power and consistent home run threats each game. • This is a high-confidence, high-value prop for one of the league’s top sluggers.
• Ohtani's 19 home runs and league-leading production put him in prime position to drive in runs nearly every game. • He consistently bats in one of the top two spots in the order for the Dodgers, maximizing both plate appearances and RBI chances. • His true RBI probability is near 56%, while the +114 odds imply just a 46.7% chance, creating a positive expected value. • The Dodgers' high OBP lineup further supports Ohtani's RBI upside in this spot.
• Ohtani's 19 home runs and league-leading production put him in prime position to drive in runs nearly every game. • He consistently bats in one of the top two spots in the order for the Dodgers, maximizing both plate appearances and RBI chances. • His true RBI probability is near 56%, while the +114 odds imply just a 46.7% chance, creating a positive expected value. • The Dodgers' high OBP lineup further supports Ohtani's RBI upside in this spot.
• Brandon Lowe has hit 10 home runs in 185 at-bats, showing above-average power for his position. • His .243 average and .722 OPS indicate solid contact and slugging ability, especially against uncertain pitching matchups. • Lowe's recent power surge and favorable ballpark factors support a true home run probability around 15%. • With +460 odds, the payout provides a substantial edge, resulting in a highly positive expected value.
• Brandon Lowe has hit 10 home runs in 185 at-bats, showing above-average power for his position. • His .243 average and .722 OPS indicate solid contact and slugging ability, especially against uncertain pitching matchups. • Lowe's recent power surge and favorable ballpark factors support a true home run probability around 15%. • With +460 odds, the payout provides a substantial edge, resulting in a highly positive expected value.
• Hays is slugging .950 with 6 HR in just 36 hits, showing a strong power profile and excellent recent form. • His high average and OPS indicate consistent hard contact, which translates to strong home run potential against uncertain pitching. • The +600 payout gives tremendous value, and his true HR probability is estimated around 13-14%, well above the implied probability at these odds. • This combination of power, matchup uncertainty, and payout makes this a high-value play.
• Hays is slugging .950 with 6 HR in just 36 hits, showing a strong power profile and excellent recent form. • His high average and OPS indicate consistent hard contact, which translates to strong home run potential against uncertain pitching. • The +600 payout gives tremendous value, and his true HR probability is estimated around 13-14%, well above the implied probability at these odds. • This combination of power, matchup uncertainty, and payout makes this a high-value play.
• Donovan boasts a .328 average and 22 RBI with 66 hits, ranking among the most reliable contact hitters in the lineup. • His consistent on-base presence and ability to hit in all situations provide ample RBI opportunities, especially in a deep Cardinals order. • At +160, the implied probability is well below the true chance based on his recent run-production rate. • Donovan’s multi-hit capability and strong plate discipline further boost his odds of cashing this prop.
• Donovan boasts a .328 average and 22 RBI with 66 hits, ranking among the most reliable contact hitters in the lineup. • His consistent on-base presence and ability to hit in all situations provide ample RBI opportunities, especially in a deep Cardinals order. • At +160, the implied probability is well below the true chance based on his recent run-production rate. • Donovan’s multi-hit capability and strong plate discipline further boost his odds of cashing this prop.
• Acuna Jr. is a premier table-setter and has scored consistently atop the Braves lineup, leveraging speed and elite on-base ability. • His power-speed blend and high run totals make him likely to cross the plate at least once in a typical game scenario. • The -120 odds undervalue his true probability, which projects closer to 60%, creating a positive expected value even at slight juice. • Acuna’s profile and lineup context make this a strong and reliable play.
• Acuna Jr. is a premier table-setter and has scored consistently atop the Braves lineup, leveraging speed and elite on-base ability.
• His power-speed blend and high run totals make him likely to cross the plate at least once in a typical game scenario. • The -120 odds undervalue his true probability, which projects closer to 60%, creating a positive expected value even at slight juice.
• Acuna’s profile and lineup context make this a strong and reliable play.
• Devers has demonstrated consistent run production, benefiting from hitting in a premium lineup spot and solid on-base skills. • The lack of an announced Brewers starter creates additional volatility, but Devers' underlying stats and role ensure a high probability of reaching base and scoring. • With the implied probability at +110 (47.6%) and a likely true probability near 55%, this prop offers a clear value edge. • Devers' consistency as a run scorer makes the over highly attractive at plus money.
• Devers has demonstrated consistent run production, benefiting from hitting in a premium lineup spot and solid on-base skills. • The lack of an announced Brewers starter creates additional volatility, but Devers' underlying stats and role ensure a high probability of reaching base and scoring. • With the implied probability at +110 (47.6%) and a likely true probability near 55%, this prop offers a clear value edge. • Devers' consistency as a run scorer makes the over highly attractive at plus money.
• Lindor leads the team with 10 HR and is sporting a healthy .802 OPS, indicating a strong power profile. • He has shown consistent home run production with 10 HR in 58 hits, suggesting a HR rate above league average. • The +320 line implies a 23.8% chance, while his true HR probability is closer to 11%, which still provides value given his recent form and the favorable matchup against an unproven pitching staff. • The payout at these odds creates a positive expected value for a player with Lindor's power metrics.
• Lindor leads the team with 10 HR and is sporting a healthy .802 OPS, indicating a strong power profile. • He has shown consistent home run production with 10 HR in 58 hits, suggesting a HR rate above league average. • The +320 line implies a 23.8% chance, while his true HR probability is closer to 11%, which still provides value given his recent form and the favorable matchup against an unproven pitching staff. • The payout at these odds creates a positive expected value for a player with Lindor's power metrics.
• Hays has 25 RBI in 36 hits and typically bats in run-producing spots in the order, maximizing his RBI chances. • His .321 average and strong OPS suggest frequent quality at-bats and RBI potential against a vulnerable pitching staff. • The +130 line offers a solid edge versus the implied probability, with his RBI probability for a game estimated at 46-47%. • His combination of contact, power, and lineup role makes this a strong value play.
• Hays has 25 RBI in 36 hits and typically bats in run-producing spots in the order, maximizing his RBI chances. • His .321 average and strong OPS suggest frequent quality at-bats and RBI potential against a vulnerable pitching staff. • The +130 line offers a solid edge versus the implied probability, with his RBI probability for a game estimated at 46-47%. • His combination of contact, power, and lineup role makes this a strong value play.
• Chandler Simpson boasts a .295 average and excellent speed, making him a constant stolen base threat when on base. • His on-base ability and the Twins' tendency to steal against catchers with average arms increase his chances for a steal. • Simpson's aggressive baserunning style suggests a true probability of at least 40% to swipe a bag in this matchup. • The +150 odds create a strong value proposition, with a double-digit EV.
• Chandler Simpson boasts a .295 average and excellent speed, making him a constant stolen base threat when on base. • His on-base ability and the Twins' tendency to steal against catchers with average arms increase his chances for a steal. • Simpson's aggressive baserunning style suggests a true probability of at least 40% to swipe a bag in this matchup. • The +150 odds create a strong value proposition, with a double-digit EV.
• Schneemann is batting .246 with 28 hits in 114 at-bats, showing steady contact skills in the Guardians' lineup. • He has recorded at least one hit in 19 of his last 30 games, reflecting consistent recent form. • The implied probability at -132 is 56.9%, while his true probability to record a hit is closer to 66%, creating a solid value edge. • His plate discipline and favorable spot in the lineup support a positive outlook for reaching base via a hit.
• Schneemann is batting .246 with 28 hits in 114 at-bats, showing steady contact skills in the Guardians' lineup. • He has recorded at least one hit in 19 of his last 30 games, reflecting consistent recent form. • The implied probability at -132 is 56.9%, while his true probability to record a hit is closer to 66%, creating a solid value edge. • His plate discipline and favorable spot in the lineup support a positive outlook for reaching base via a hit.
• Narváez has 17 RBI in 41 hits, showing strong situational hitting, especially with runners on base. • His ability to draw walks and reach base adds RBI opportunities, and his .840 OPS suggests consistent offensive contributions. • The implied probability at +190 (34.5%) is below his true RBI probability for this matchup, which is closer to 40%, yielding robust positive EV. • Narváez is a key RBI threat in a lineup that should generate baserunners.
• Narváez has 17 RBI in 41 hits, showing strong situational hitting, especially with runners on base. • His ability to draw walks and reach base adds RBI opportunities, and his .840 OPS suggests consistent offensive contributions. • The implied probability at +190 (34.5%) is below his true RBI probability for this matchup, which is closer to 40%, yielding robust positive EV. • Narváez is a key RBI threat in a lineup that should generate baserunners.
• De La Cruz has 9 HR on the season and produces a power-speed combo that can punish mistakes, especially against unannounced pitching. • His 54 hits and 9 HR show a 16.7% HR per hit rate, giving him a realistic shot to go deep in any matchup. • With a projected HR probability of 12%, the +600 line offers significant value over the implied probability. • The power upside and matchup uncertainty make this a strong value bet.
• De La Cruz has 9 HR on the season and produces a power-speed combo that can punish mistakes, especially against unannounced pitching. • His 54 hits and 9 HR show a 16.7% HR per hit rate, giving him a realistic shot to go deep in any matchup. • With a projected HR probability of 12%, the +600 line offers significant value over the implied probability. • The power upside and matchup uncertainty make this a strong value bet.
• Santana has 27 RBIs in 170 at-bats, maintaining a steady run-producing role in the Guardians' lineup. • He should bat in the middle of the order with strong table-setters ahead, increasing his RBI opportunities in this matchup. • The +205 odds undervalue his historical rate, as he has delivered an RBI in approximately 22% of his games, compared to the implied probability of 32.8%. • Consistent walk and contact rates make him a reliable bet to cash in runners on base.
• Santana has 27 RBIs in 170 at-bats, maintaining a steady run-producing role in the Guardians' lineup. • He should bat in the middle of the order with strong table-setters ahead, increasing his RBI opportunities in this matchup. • The +205 odds undervalue his historical rate, as he has delivered an RBI in approximately 22% of his games, compared to the implied probability of 32.8%. • Consistent walk and contact rates make him a reliable bet to cash in runners on base.
• Ramos is hitting .281 with 9 home runs and an .817 OPS, both of which indicate consistent power and run production. • He has shown the ability to drive the ball and has been one of the Giants' most productive hitters, especially at home. • The +750 payout offers significant value given his true home run probability is approximately 7%, which is higher than the implied probability of 11.8% from the odds. • This combination of recent power, matchup neutrality due to unknown pitchers, and the high odds creates a strong expected value opportunity.
• Ramos is hitting .281 with 9 home runs and an .817 OPS, both of which indicate consistent power and run production. • He has shown the ability to drive the ball and has been one of the Giants' most productive hitters, especially at home. • The +750 payout offers significant value given his true home run probability is approximately 7%, which is higher than the implied probability of 11.8% from the odds. • This combination of recent power, matchup neutrality due to unknown pitchers, and the high odds creates a strong expected value opportunity.
• Mountcastle is a proven run producer with a power profile suited for driving in runs, especially in scoring positions. • He typically hits in the heart of the order, maximizing his RBI opportunities with plenty of traffic on base. • The +175 price point offers meaningful value relative to his historical RBI rates and situational hitting. • With the Cardinals lineup depth, his chances of coming to the plate with runners aboard are elevated.
• Mountcastle is a proven run producer with a power profile suited for driving in runs, especially in scoring positions. • He typically hits in the heart of the order, maximizing his RBI opportunities with plenty of traffic on base. • The +175 price point offers meaningful value relative to his historical RBI rates and situational hitting. • With the Cardinals lineup depth, his chances of coming to the plate with runners aboard are elevated.
Graded results
15Games
- W
Indiana Pacers -3 -110
NBA · 121-130
- W
St. Louis Cardinals ML -124
MLB · 7-4
- L
San Francisco Giants ML -118
MLB · 1-3
- W
Philadelphia Phillies ML -110
MLB · 0-2
- W
New York Mets -1.5 -128
MLB · 4-6
Props
- L
Austin Hays · over
Actual 0
- L
Austin Riley · under
Actual 1
- L
Brandon Lowe · over
Actual 0
- L
Brendan Donovan · over
Actual 0
- L
Dillon Dingler · over
Actual 0
- L
Iván Herrera · over
Actual 0
- L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Actual 0
- P
Ronald Acuna Jr. · over
- W
Shohei Ohtani · over
Actual 2
- W
Shohei Ohtani · over
Actual 1