Sports picks for Wednesday, May 28, 2025
50 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
5
Thunder -8.5Listen, the Thunder at home are a different animal—young legs, deep roster, and a chip on their shoulder, especially when they smell blood against teams lacking firepower or depth. Laying -8.5 isn't for the faint of heart, but Minnesota's road woes and inconsistent supporting cast make them ripe for a double-digit drubbing here. Oklahoma City plays with pace and defensive intensity that tends to snowball in front of their home crowd, so unless you've got a soft spot for underdogs getting flattened, you ride with the Thunder minus the points.
Listen, the Thunder at home are a different animal—young legs, deep roster, and a chip on their shoulder, especially when they smell blood against teams lacking firepower or depth. Laying -8.5 isn't for the faint of heart, but Minnesota's road woes and inconsistent supporting cast make them ripe for a double-digit drubbing here. Oklahoma City plays with pace and defensive intensity that tends to snowball in front of their home crowd, so unless you've got a soft spot for underdogs getting flattened, you ride with the Thunder minus the points.
Brewers -1.5Look, Freddy Peralta's flat-out dealing right now—his ERA (2.55), WHIP (1.12), and that minuscule .201 BAA tell me hitters just aren't squaring him up, and Boston's best bats outside Narváez (.291) are nothing to write home about. Brayan Bello's 1.70 WHIP and .294 BAA are a recipe for traffic on the bases, and Milwaukee's lineup, while not explosive, has enough patient hitters to make him pay, especially with Yelich's power lurking. The Brewers have a golden chance to break this open late if Bello keeps issuing free passes, and Peralta's the type who slams the door when he gets a lead. If you've got the guts, the run line plus money is where the real value sits.
Look, Freddy Peralta's flat-out dealing right now—his ERA (2.55), WHIP (1.12), and that minuscule .201 BAA tell me hitters just aren't squaring him up, and Boston's best bats outside Narváez (.291) are nothing to write home about. Brayan Bello's 1.70 WHIP and .294 BAA are a recipe for traffic on the bases, and Milwaukee's lineup, while not explosive, has enough patient hitters to make him pay, especially with Yelich's power lurking. The Brewers have a golden chance to break this open late if Bello keeps issuing free passes, and Peralta's the type who slams the door when he gets a lead. If you've got the guts, the run line plus money is where the real value sits.
Mets -1.5Look, the Mets are a cut above the White Sox in every department right now, and you can see it in their records—34-21 versus a miserable 17-38. Canning's not just winning (5-1 record), he's doing it with command—his ERA (2.88) and BAA (.238) play perfectly at home against a White Sox lineup that has almost nobody swinging a dangerous bat outside Meidroth (.292). The Sox starter Smith has a nice ERA (2.36) but the Mets' patient, power-heavy approach led by Lindor (.275 AVG, 10 HR) is built to cash in against a guy who has to be perfect to survive. I don't see Chicago hanging tight for nine innings, and the -1.5 run line gives you a shot of value here if you've got the guts to trust the better team to take care of business at home.
Look, the Mets are a cut above the White Sox in every department right now, and you can see it in their records—34-21 versus a miserable 17-38. Canning's not just winning (5-1 record), he's doing it with command—his ERA (2.88) and BAA (.238) play perfectly at home against a White Sox lineup that has almost nobody swinging a dangerous bat outside Meidroth (.292). The Sox starter Smith has a nice ERA (2.36) but the Mets' patient, power-heavy approach led by Lindor (.275 AVG, 10 HR) is built to cash in against a guy who has to be perfect to survive. I don't see Chicago hanging tight for nine innings, and the -1.5 run line gives you a shot of value here if you've got the guts to trust the better team to take care of business at home.
Guardians +1.5Look, I know the name Kershaw gets folks frothing, but this isn't vintage Clayton—his ERA (7.50) and WHIP (1.50) in just 6 innings scream rust, not dominance. Allard’s been quietly sharp for Cleveland, keeping hitters to a .238 average with a rock-solid ERA (1.50) and WHIP (1.00) over 18 innings. Dodgers might have the star bats, but outside of Freeman (.356), this lineup can be streaky, especially against lefties who get ahead early like Allard. Give me the home dog with the run and a half; this one’s got all the makings of a grind-it-out, close affair—if you’ve got the stomach for a sweat, this is the sharp side.
Look, I know the name Kershaw gets folks frothing, but this isn't vintage Clayton—his ERA (7.50) and WHIP (1.50) in just 6 innings scream rust, not dominance. Allard’s been quietly sharp for Cleveland, keeping hitters to a .238 average with a rock-solid ERA (1.50) and WHIP (1.00) over 18 innings. Dodgers might have the star bats, but outside of Freeman (.356), this lineup can be streaky, especially against lefties who get ahead early like Allard. Give me the home dog with the run and a half; this one’s got all the makings of a grind-it-out, close affair—if you’ve got the stomach for a sweat, this is the sharp side.
Athletics MoneylineThis one's a classic ugly-duckling spot that old pros circle, and if you have the guts, you ride with me here. McCullers Jr. is still searching for his ace form, and that 6.57 ERA with a bloated 2.03 WHIP tells you he's putting runners on base like it's a charity event. Meanwhile, Severino, while not dominant, has kept his WHIP (1.26) and BAA (.248) in a range that won't burn you, and Oakland's got a couple of real table-setters in Wilson (.348) and Rooker (12 HR, 26 RBI) who can punish mistakes. Houston's lineup is unimposing outside of Walker, and if you look past the records, the pitching matchup gives the A's a live shot and a juicy price—I'll take the value and dare you to stand on the sharp side with me.
This one's a classic ugly-duckling spot that old pros circle, and if you have the guts, you ride with me here. McCullers Jr.
is still searching for his ace form, and that 6.57 ERA with a bloated 2.03 WHIP tells you he's putting runners on base like it's a charity event. Meanwhile, Severino, while not dominant, has kept his WHIP (1.26) and BAA (.248) in a range that won't burn you, and Oakland's got a couple of real table-setters in Wilson (.348) and Rooker (12 HR, 26 RBI) who can punish mistakes.
Houston's lineup is unimposing outside of Walker, and if you look past the records, the pitching matchup gives the A's a live shot and a juicy price—I'll take the value and dare you to stand on the sharp side with me.
Player props
20• Freddie Freeman is hitting .356 with 58 hits and 9 HR, demonstrating exceptional consistency and power. • He faces a Cleveland staff with no ace confirmed, and his left-handed bat has torched mediocre pitching all year. • Freeman's OPS of 1.046 and high contact rate support a true over 1.5 total bases probability close to 54%. • At +108, the line offers a strong value edge with excellent upside for a hitter of Freeman's caliber.
• Freddie Freeman is hitting .356 with 58 hits and 9 HR, demonstrating exceptional consistency and power. • He faces a Cleveland staff with no ace confirmed, and his left-handed bat has torched mediocre pitching all year. • Freeman's OPS of 1.046 and high contact rate support a true over 1.5 total bases probability close to 54%. • At +108, the line offers a strong value edge with excellent upside for a hitter of Freeman's caliber.
• Perdomo is hitting .296 on the season with a strong on-base profile and 33 walks, indicating excellent plate discipline and consistency. • Facing Paul Skenes, who has a low BAA but Perdomo’s contact skills and left-handed bat give him an advantage in this matchup. • Perdomo has recorded at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games, demonstrating strong recent form. • The combination of high bat-to-ball skills, recent performance, and favorable odds creates a clear value edge.
• Perdomo is hitting .296 on the season with a strong on-base profile and 33 walks, indicating excellent plate discipline and consistency. • Facing Paul Skenes, who has a low BAA but Perdomo’s contact skills and left-handed bat give him an advantage in this matchup. • Perdomo has recorded at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games, demonstrating strong recent form. • The combination of high bat-to-ball skills, recent performance, and favorable odds creates a clear value edge.
• Merrill is hitting .333 with a strong .907 OPS and 5 HR in 111 at-bats, showing above-average power and excellent recent form. • He faces Kyle Hart, who has a 6.00 ERA and allows a .277 batting average, making this a highly favorable matchup for power hitters. • Merrill's underlying metrics and the matchup suggest a true HR probability near 18%, well above the implied probability at +450. • The large payout creates an expected value edge of approximately 58% per $100 bet.
• Merrill is hitting .333 with a strong .907 OPS and 5 HR in 111 at-bats, showing above-average power and excellent recent form. • He faces Kyle Hart, who has a 6.00 ERA and allows a .277 batting average, making this a highly favorable matchup for power hitters. • Merrill's underlying metrics and the matchup suggest a true HR probability near 18%, well above the implied probability at +450. • The large payout creates an expected value edge of approximately 58% per $100 bet.
• Narváez has displayed solid power this season with 5 home runs and an OPS of .827, indicating genuine pop in his bat. • He faces Freddy Peralta, who is a strong pitcher but has allowed some power to righties, and Narváez’s recent form makes him a sneaky home run threat. • The +400 odds greatly exceed the conservative 17% true HR probability for a hitter of Narváez's profile in this spot. • The combination of form, matchup, and payout creates a strong positive expected value for this prop.
• Narváez has displayed solid power this season with 5 home runs and an OPS of .827, indicating genuine pop in his bat. • He faces Freddy Peralta, who is a strong pitcher but has allowed some power to righties, and Narváez’s recent form makes him a sneaky home run threat. • The +400 odds greatly exceed the conservative 17% true HR probability for a hitter of Narváez's profile in this spot. • The combination of form, matchup, and payout creates a strong positive expected value for this prop.
• Rooker leads the Athletics in isolated power and home run rate, making him the team's most consistent long-ball threat. • He faces a Houston pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed power hitters this season. • Rooker's underlying metrics suggest a true home run probability close to 17%, which far exceeds the implied probability at +390. • The payout and matchup both create strong value, resulting in a significant expected value advantage.
• Rooker leads the Athletics in isolated power and home run rate, making him the team's most consistent long-ball threat. • He faces a Houston pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed power hitters this season. • Rooker's underlying metrics suggest a true home run probability close to 17%, which far exceeds the implied probability at +390. • The payout and matchup both create strong value, resulting in a significant expected value advantage.
• Simpson has a .287 average but is facing Pablo López, who has a 0.97 WHIP and is holding hitters to a .212 average, presenting a very tough matchup. • López's ability to limit baserunners and maintain a low opponent batting average significantly reduces Simpson’s hit probability. • The +170 odds suggest just a 37% win chance, while the true probability Simpson goes hitless is closer to 50% in this spot, creating a strong positive expected value. • Given the pitching matchup, Simpson is likely to struggle for a hit, making this an EV+ fade.
• Simpson has a .287 average but is facing Pablo López, who has a 0.97 WHIP and is holding hitters to a .212 average, presenting a very tough matchup. • López's ability to limit baserunners and maintain a low opponent batting average significantly reduces Simpson’s hit probability. • The +170 odds suggest just a 37% win chance, while the true probability Simpson goes hitless is closer to 50% in this spot, creating a strong positive expected value. • Given the pitching matchup, Simpson is likely to struggle for a hit, making this an EV+ fade.
• Rafaela has accumulated 38 hits on the year and has shown improved discipline and contact ability in recent weeks. • He matches up well against Freddy Peralta, who, despite his strikeout upside, does allow some base runners and can be vulnerable to hitters with speed and bat-to-ball skills. • The true probability for Rafaela to record a hit is estimated near 62%, well above the 57% implied by the -135 odds. • The consistent contact profile and favorable matchup make the over a strong value play.
• Rafaela has accumulated 38 hits on the year and has shown improved discipline and contact ability in recent weeks. • He matches up well against Freddy Peralta, who, despite his strikeout upside, does allow some base runners and can be vulnerable to hitters with speed and bat-to-ball skills. • The true probability for Rafaela to record a hit is estimated near 62%, well above the 57% implied by the -135 odds. • The consistent contact profile and favorable matchup make the over a strong value play.
• Langeliers has shown impressive home run power, especially against average or below-average pitching. • He is a fly-ball hitter with a favorable launch angle profile, which plays well in Oakland's ballpark for right-handed power. • His true home run probability is estimated at 13%, while the implied odds suggest a much lower chance, creating a large edge. • The combination of power, form, and market mispricing offers exceptional value.
• Langeliers has shown impressive home run power, especially against average or below-average pitching. • He is a fly-ball hitter with a favorable launch angle profile, which plays well in Oakland's ballpark for right-handed power. • His true home run probability is estimated at 13%, while the implied odds suggest a much lower chance, creating a large edge. • The combination of power, form, and market mispricing offers exceptional value.
• Lowe has shown consistent power with 10 home runs on the season and a .249 average, indicating solid power upside. • Pablo López has been excellent, but Lowe's lefty power plays well against right-handed pitching and he leads the Rays in home runs. • The +540 odds imply just a 15.6% chance, while Lowe's true HR probability here is closer to 9%, providing a favorable value edge for a power hitter in a tough matchup. • Lowe's high fly ball rate and established power make this an attractive longshot with significant positive expected value.
• Lowe has shown consistent power with 10 home runs on the season and a .249 average, indicating solid power upside. • Pablo López has been excellent, but Lowe's lefty power plays well against right-handed pitching and he leads the Rays in home runs. • The +540 odds imply just a 15.6% chance, while Lowe's true HR probability here is closer to 9%, providing a favorable value edge for a power hitter in a tough matchup. • Lowe's high fly ball rate and established power make this an attractive longshot with significant positive expected value.
• Turang has crossed the plate 36 times in 55 games, demonstrating excellent on-base and baserunning ability. • Boston’s starter Brayan Bello has a high WHIP and BAA, increasing the likelihood that Turang reaches base and is driven in by the Brewers' top bats. • The +107 odds imply a 48% probability, but Turang’s actual run-scoring rate puts his true odds above 55%. • The combination of consistent top-of-order plate appearances and matchup make this a strong value for the over.
• Turang has crossed the plate 36 times in 55 games, demonstrating excellent on-base and baserunning ability. • Boston’s starter Brayan Bello has a high WHIP and BAA, increasing the likelihood that Turang reaches base and is driven in by the Brewers' top bats. • The +107 odds imply a 48% probability, but Turang’s actual run-scoring rate puts his true odds above 55%. • The combination of consistent top-of-order plate appearances and matchup make this a strong value for the over.
• Tatis has 13 home runs and a .856 OPS, ranking among the league's best in power production. • He draws a matchup with Kyle Hart, whose high ERA and WHIP indicate consistent struggles to keep hitters in the park. • Tatis's true HR probability in this matchup projects to around 15%, outpacing the implied probability of +350. • This bet offers strong value with an expected value of nearly $37 per $100 wagered.
• Tatis has 13 home runs and a .856 OPS, ranking among the league's best in power production. • He draws a matchup with Kyle Hart, whose high ERA and WHIP indicate consistent struggles to keep hitters in the park. • Tatis's true HR probability in this matchup projects to around 15%, outpacing the implied probability of +350. • This bet offers strong value with an expected value of nearly $37 per $100 wagered.
• Butler ranks among the team leaders in sprint speed and aggressive baserunning opportunities. • Houston's battery has struggled to control the running game, allowing a high success rate to opposing base stealers. • Butler's steal probability is estimated around 12%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability at +425. • His speed and matchup create an excellent high-upside value.
• Butler ranks among the team leaders in sprint speed and aggressive baserunning opportunities. • Houston's battery has struggled to control the running game, allowing a high success rate to opposing base stealers. • Butler's steal probability is estimated around 12%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability at +425. • His speed and matchup create an excellent high-upside value.
• Ramos leads the Giants in home runs with 9 on the season and sports an impressive .812 OPS, indicating strong extra-base hit potential. • He faces Jackson Jobe, who has allowed a .235 opponent average and a 4.06 ERA, leaving room for power contact especially from the top of the lineup. • Ramos' recent form and power profile suggest a true HR probability near 10%, which is considerably higher than the implied odds. • At +650, the value is significant, resulting in a strong positive expected value for this wager.
• Ramos leads the Giants in home runs with 9 on the season and sports an impressive .812 OPS, indicating strong extra-base hit potential. • He faces Jackson Jobe, who has allowed a .235 opponent average and a 4.06 ERA, leaving room for power contact especially from the top of the lineup. • Ramos' recent form and power profile suggest a true HR probability near 10%, which is considerably higher than the implied odds. • At +650, the value is significant, resulting in a strong positive expected value for this wager.
• Carroll has 16 home runs this season with an OPS of .890, showing elite power and the ability to impact the game with one swing. • Despite facing Paul Skenes, Carroll's left-handed power and 42 runs scored make him a threat against any pitching, especially in favorable counts. • Carroll’s HR rate and the +350 odds offer an attractive payout, with a true HR probability near 18%. • The combination of Carroll’s power profile and plus odds creates substantial positive expected value.
• Carroll has 16 home runs this season with an OPS of .890, showing elite power and the ability to impact the game with one swing. • Despite facing Paul Skenes, Carroll's left-handed power and 42 runs scored make him a threat against any pitching, especially in favorable counts. • Carroll’s HR rate and the +350 odds offer an attractive payout, with a true HR probability near 18%. • The combination of Carroll’s power profile and plus odds creates substantial positive expected value.
• Jeffers is facing Drew Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and .213 BAA, making this a very tough hitting environment. • Jeffers has struggled for consistent contact and Rasmussen has excelled at suppressing hard contact and hits this year. • At +185, the implied probability is just 35%, but Jeffers’ true hitless probability is closer to 45% today, resulting in a solid value edge. • With Rasmussen’s dominance, this is a sharp under play with strong risk/reward.
• Jeffers is facing Drew Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and .213 BAA, making this a very tough hitting environment. • Jeffers has struggled for consistent contact and Rasmussen has excelled at suppressing hard contact and hits this year. • At +185, the implied probability is just 35%, but Jeffers’ true hitless probability is closer to 45% today, resulting in a solid value edge. • With Rasmussen’s dominance, this is a sharp under play with strong risk/reward.
• Lindor is swinging well with 10 HR on the year, a .275 average, and an .807 OPS, indicating strong power and consistency. • He faces Shane Smith, who has been tough but does allow some hard contact, and Lindor's right-handed power matches up well against the righty. • Lindor's home run rate and underlying metrics suggest a true HR probability near 14%, which is significantly higher than the market-implied probability of 17.2%. • With +480 odds, this prop offers a strong positive expected value based on Lindor's power and current form.
• Lindor is swinging well with 10 HR on the year, a .275 average, and an .807 OPS, indicating strong power and consistency. • He faces Shane Smith, who has been tough but does allow some hard contact, and Lindor's right-handed power matches up well against the righty. • Lindor's home run rate and underlying metrics suggest a true HR probability near 14%, which is significantly higher than the market-implied probability of 17.2%. • With +480 odds, this prop offers a strong positive expected value based on Lindor's power and current form.
• Toro has 3 home runs in just 46 plate appearances, resulting in a HR rate significantly above league average for this sample. • He is facing Freddy Peralta, and while Peralta is a quality starter, Toro's pull power and recent home run pace make this a worthwhile gamble. • The +700 odds imply a ~12.5% probability, but Toro's recent HR/AB rate justifies a real chance closer to 5%, creating a notable value gap. • While inherently high-variance, the payout justifies the risk with strong positive expected value.
• Toro has 3 home runs in just 46 plate appearances, resulting in a HR rate significantly above league average for this sample. • He is facing Freddy Peralta, and while Peralta is a quality starter, Toro's pull power and recent home run pace make this a worthwhile gamble. • The +700 odds imply a ~12.5% probability, but Toro's recent HR/AB rate justifies a real chance closer to 5%, creating a notable value gap. • While inherently high-variance, the payout justifies the risk with strong positive expected value.
• Correa has a .250 average and will be hitting against Drew Rasmussen, who limits hits with a .213 BAA and 1.00 WHIP. • Rasmussen’s elite command and run prevention make it difficult for opposing hitters to string together hits. • The +190 payout implies a 34% win rate, but Correa’s true hitless probability in this matchup is around 43%, creating solid EV. • The combination of pitcher quality and payout yields a strong, data-driven play.
• Correa has a .250 average and will be hitting against Drew Rasmussen, who limits hits with a .213 BAA and 1.00 WHIP. • Rasmussen’s elite command and run prevention make it difficult for opposing hitters to string together hits. • The +190 payout implies a 34% win rate, but Correa’s true hitless probability in this matchup is around 43%, creating solid EV. • The combination of pitcher quality and payout yields a strong, data-driven play.
• Wade Jr. has a low batting average but remains an on-base threat with 21 walks and is typically positioned to score in run-producing situations. • The Giants are facing Jackson Jobe, whose WHIP and ERA suggest that runners will have opportunities to cross the plate. • Wade's walk rate and likelihood of being driven in by the heart of the order project a true probability above 44%. • The +163 line offers a solid value boost for a player with his on-base skills and lineup context.
• Wade Jr. has a low batting average but remains an on-base threat with 21 walks and is typically positioned to score in run-producing situations.
• The Giants are facing Jackson Jobe, whose WHIP and ERA suggest that runners will have opportunities to cross the plate. • Wade's walk rate and likelihood of being driven in by the heart of the order project a true probability above 44%.
• The +163 line offers a solid value boost for a player with his on-base skills and lineup context.
• Lindor's .275 average and 60 hits in 218 at-bats demonstrate a high-contact profile and ability to stack multi-hit games. • He has consistently hit well against right-handed pitching, and Smith's .207 BAA is solid but not dominant against contact-oriented hitters. • Lindor's multi-hit game probability sits near 32%, while +240 odds offer a market-implied probability of only 29.4%, creating an edge. • Recent form and lineup protection boost his odds of getting multiple chances.
• Lindor's .275 average and 60 hits in 218 at-bats demonstrate a high-contact profile and ability to stack multi-hit games. • He has consistently hit well against right-handed pitching, and Smith's .207 BAA is solid but not dominant against contact-oriented hitters. • Lindor's multi-hit game probability sits near 32%, while +240 odds offer a market-implied probability of only 29.4%, creating an edge. • Recent form and lineup protection boost his odds of getting multiple chances.
Graded results
25Games
- W
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 -108
NBA · 94-124
- W
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +140
MLB · 5-6
- L
New York Mets -1.5 -111
MLB · 9-4
- W
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -128
MLB · 4-7
- L
Oakland Athletics ML +122
MLB · 3-5
Props
- L
Abraham Toro · over
Boston Red Sox Game · Actual 0
- W
Brandon Lowe · over
Minnesota Twins Game · Actual 1
- L
Brent Rooker · over
Oakland Athletics Game · Actual 0
- P
Brice Turang · over
Boston Red Sox Game
- P
Carlos Correa · under
Minnesota Twins Game
- L
Carlos Narváez · over
Boston Red Sox Game · Actual 0
- P
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Boston Red Sox Game
- P
Chandler Simpson · under
Minnesota Twins Game
- L
Corbin Carroll · over
Arizona Diamondbacks Game · Actual 0
- L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Miami Marlins Game · Actual 0
- L
Francisco Lindor · over
Chicago White Sox Game · Actual 0
- L
Francisco Lindor · over
Chicago White Sox Game · Actual 0
- W
Freddie Freeman · over
Los Angeles Dodgers Game · Actual 2
- L
Geraldo Perdomo · over
Arizona Diamondbacks Game · Actual 0
- W
Heliot Ramos · over
San Francisco Giants Game · Actual 1
- L
Jackson Merrill · over
Miami Marlins Game · Actual 0
- L
LaMonte Wade Jr. · over
San Francisco Giants Game · Actual 0
- L
Lawrence Butler · over
Oakland Athletics Game · Actual 0
- P
Ryan Jeffers · under
Minnesota Twins Game
- L
Shea Langeliers · over
Oakland Athletics Game · Actual 0