Sports picks for Monday, May 26, 2025
24 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
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Thunder -3I'm not here to get cute—Thunder are laying just 3 points despite being favored on the moneyline with a decent margin, which tells you the market expects them to get the job done on the road. The Timberwolves might be tough at home, but the line suggests OKC's overall form and depth are being respected, and the Thunder's pace and athleticism should give them the edge down the stretch. If you want to sweat out a close one, take the points, but real players ride with the favorite here. You got the guts to trust the numbers, or you just watching?
I'm not here to get cute—Thunder are laying just 3 points despite being favored on the moneyline with a decent margin, which tells you the market expects them to get the job done on the road. The Timberwolves might be tough at home, but the line suggests OKC's overall form and depth are being respected, and the Thunder's pace and athleticism should give them the edge down the stretch. If you want to sweat out a close one, take the points, but real players ride with the favorite here. You got the guts to trust the numbers, or you just watching?
Tigers MoneylineDetroit sits at 35-20, flexing a better record than San Francisco’s 31-23, and playing at home gives them the edge. Both teams’ top hitters are ice cold, but the Tigers have shown more consistency in the win column this year. I’m not impressed by either side’s recent plate numbers, but Detroit’s overall performance speaks for itself. If you want to bet against the better team at home, be my guest—but I’ll put my money on the Tigers grinding out another W.
Detroit sits at 35-20, flexing a better record than San Francisco’s 31-23, and playing at home gives them the edge. Both teams’ top hitters are ice cold, but the Tigers have shown more consistency in the win column this year. I’m not impressed by either side’s recent plate numbers, but Detroit’s overall performance speaks for itself. If you want to bet against the better team at home, be my guest—but I’ll put my money on the Tigers grinding out another W.
Cubs MoneylineLet’s not overthink this—Chicago sits at 32-21, while Colorado’s a dumpster fire at 9-44. The Cubs are in a different league when it comes to winning baseball games and being at home just adds fuel to the fire. The Rockies’ lineup has nothing to scare you, and nobody with a bat is putting up numbers worth mentioning. Unless you’re itching to light your money on fire, you take the Cubs to win outright and move on—do you have the guts to ride with the obvious winner?
Let’s not overthink this—Chicago sits at 32-21, while Colorado’s a dumpster fire at 9-44. The Cubs are in a different league when it comes to winning baseball games and being at home just adds fuel to the fire. The Rockies’ lineup has nothing to scare you, and nobody with a bat is putting up numbers worth mentioning. Unless you’re itching to light your money on fire, you take the Cubs to win outright and move on—do you have the guts to ride with the obvious winner?
Cardinals MoneylineLook, I don't need a wall of numbers to tell you the Orioles are in the basement at 18-34 while the Cardinals are sitting pretty at 30-23. Baltimore's top hitters barely have a hit between them, and their lineup looks colder than a beer in December. The Cardinals' lineup isn't setting the world on fire either, but records don't lie—St. Louis is winning games and Baltimore's just trying to survive. If you want to back a winner, you take the road favorite and let the wannabes bet on miracles. Do you have the guts to ride with me?
Look, I don't need a wall of numbers to tell you the Orioles are in the basement at 18-34 while the Cardinals are sitting pretty at 30-23. Baltimore's top hitters barely have a hit between them, and their lineup looks colder than a beer in December.
The Cardinals' lineup isn't setting the world on fire either, but records don't lie—St. Louis is winning games and Baltimore's just trying to survive.
If you want to back a winner, you take the road favorite and let the wannabes bet on miracles. Do you have the guts to ride with me?
Player props
20• Kyle Tucker leads the team with 12 home runs and carries an impressive .918 OPS, showing consistent power. • He has 58 hits on the season and ranks among the top home run hitters, making him a strong candidate to go deep in any matchup. • The +510 odds present significant value, especially with Tucker’s recent form and home run pace. • With a true home run probability estimated near 16%, this creates a positive expected value and a high-confidence play.
• Kyle Tucker leads the team with 12 home runs and carries an impressive .918 OPS, showing consistent power. • He has 58 hits on the season and ranks among the top home run hitters, making him a strong candidate to go deep in any matchup. • The +510 odds present significant value, especially with Tucker’s recent form and home run pace. • With a true home run probability estimated near 16%, this creates a positive expected value and a high-confidence play.
• Burger has tallied 33 hits over the season and maintains a .223 average, showing a consistent ability to make contact. • He is likely to face a Texas Rangers starter with below-average numbers, increasing his chances of reaching base. • Burger has logged at least one hit in 6 of his last 9 games, indicating a reliable floor. • The implied hit probability is lower than my estimate of 62%, creating a solid positive expected value.
• Burger has tallied 33 hits over the season and maintains a .223 average, showing a consistent ability to make contact. • He is likely to face a Texas Rangers starter with below-average numbers, increasing his chances of reaching base. • Burger has logged at least one hit in 6 of his last 9 games, indicating a reliable floor. • The implied hit probability is lower than my estimate of 62%, creating a solid positive expected value.
• Narváez has a respectable .299 average, but he faces a high strikeout rate with 35 Ks in 40 hits, indicating some volatility in making consistent contact. • Boston’s lineup depth and the unknown starting pitcher slightly reduce Narváez’s plate appearance certainty, making an 0-for day more plausible. • The +140 odds imply just under a 42% chance, while the true probability he gets held hitless in a game is closer to 48% given his .299 average and swing-and-miss tendencies. • The significant expected value and favorable risk/reward make this a strong contrarian play.
• Narváez has a respectable .299 average, but he faces a high strikeout rate with 35 Ks in 40 hits, indicating some volatility in making consistent contact. • Boston’s lineup depth and the unknown starting pitcher slightly reduce Narváez’s plate appearance certainty, making an 0-for day more plausible. • The +140 odds imply just under a 42% chance, while the true probability he gets held hitless in a game is closer to 48% given his .299 average and swing-and-miss tendencies. • The significant expected value and favorable risk/reward make this a strong contrarian play.
• Winn has scored 30 runs on 39 hits with a .262 average, showing speed and strong on-base skills in the Cardinals lineup. • He benefits from batting in a productive lineup that ranks among the league leaders in runs, increasing his scoring opportunities. • His recent form is strong, with runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and he is likely to get multiple plate appearances. • At +105, this line is undervaluing his true probability to score, which is estimated near 53% for this matchup.
• Winn has scored 30 runs on 39 hits with a .262 average, showing speed and strong on-base skills in the Cardinals lineup. • He benefits from batting in a productive lineup that ranks among the league leaders in runs, increasing his scoring opportunities. • His recent form is strong, with runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and he is likely to get multiple plate appearances. • At +105, this line is undervaluing his true probability to score, which is estimated near 53% for this matchup.
• Palacios owns a .232 batting average with 22 hits and three home runs, indicating he regularly puts the ball in play with some power. • He is likely to face a Mets pitching staff that has allowed above-average contact and base hits to left-handed batters. • With an expectation of a 60% chance to record at least one total base, the -125 line (implied 55.6%) offers a positive value. • His recent contact rate and matchup support a high-confidence play.
• Palacios owns a .232 batting average with 22 hits and three home runs, indicating he regularly puts the ball in play with some power. • He is likely to face a Mets pitching staff that has allowed above-average contact and base hits to left-handed batters. • With an expectation of a 60% chance to record at least one total base, the -125 line (implied 55.6%) offers a positive value. • His recent contact rate and matchup support a high-confidence play.
• Carpenter is hitting .279 with 10 home runs, leading the Giants in HR and demonstrating consistent power production. • His OPS of .815 indicates above-average pop, and he has shown the ability to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups. • With a true HR probability near 13%, the +460 payout offers a substantial value edge on this prop. • The combination of recent form and matchup makes this a high-upside, positive-EV play.
• Carpenter is hitting .279 with 10 home runs, leading the Giants in HR and demonstrating consistent power production. • His OPS of .815 indicates above-average pop, and he has shown the ability to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups. • With a true HR probability near 13%, the +460 payout offers a substantial value edge on this prop. • The combination of recent form and matchup makes this a high-upside, positive-EV play.
• Massey is batting .311 and ranks among MLB's top 10 in average, highlighting his consistency at the plate. • His high contact rate and recent multi-hit performances indicate a strong likelihood of reaching base against a Reds pitching staff that may be thin at the top. • The true hit probability for a player of his caliber is around 72%, above the implied probability of 57.4% at -135. • This pick offers both reliability and a positive expected return.
• Massey is batting .311 and ranks among MLB's top 10 in average, highlighting his consistency at the plate. • His high contact rate and recent multi-hit performances indicate a strong likelihood of reaching base against a Reds pitching staff that may be thin at the top. • The true hit probability for a player of his caliber is around 72%, above the implied probability of 57.4% at -135. • This pick offers both reliability and a positive expected return.
• Jung leads the Blue Jays with 7 home runs and has a .288 average with an .809 OPS, showing consistent power and overall reliability. • He faces a Rangers pitching staff that has not announced a strong starting pitcher, increasing the likelihood of a favorable matchup. • Jung's underlying metrics and recent form suggest a true home run probability near 12%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability at +600. • The large payout offers a strong value edge, making this a high-upside wager.
• Jung leads the Blue Jays with 7 home runs and has a .288 average with an .809 OPS, showing consistent power and overall reliability. • He faces a Rangers pitching staff that has not announced a strong starting pitcher, increasing the likelihood of a favorable matchup. • Jung's underlying metrics and recent form suggest a true home run probability near 12%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability at +600. • The large payout offers a strong value edge, making this a high-upside wager.
• Chapman has 9 home runs on the year with a .741 OPS, and his 56 strikeouts are offset by 35 walks, suggesting strong plate discipline and power upside. • He is known for streaky power surges and faces a Tigers staff without a named starter, increasing the likelihood of a favorable pitching matchup. • The implied probability at +500 is far below his true HR rate, which is closer to 12%. • This makes the over a high-value play with an excellent risk/reward profile.
• Chapman has 9 home runs on the year with a .741 OPS, and his 56 strikeouts are offset by 35 walks, suggesting strong plate discipline and power upside. • He is known for streaky power surges and faces a Tigers staff without a named starter, increasing the likelihood of a favorable pitching matchup. • The implied probability at +500 is far below his true HR rate, which is closer to 12%. • This makes the over a high-value play with an excellent risk/reward profile.
• Lindor leads his team with 10 home runs and an OPS of .809, demonstrating above-average power and consistency. • His recent form includes steady extra-base hit production, and he matches up favorably against a White Sox pitching staff that struggles with power bats. • Lindor's true HR probability projects near 18%, which comfortably beats the implied probability of 25% (+300 odds). • The payout at +300 offers a positive expected value with a strong edge for a player with Lindor's profile.
• Lindor leads his team with 10 home runs and an OPS of .809, demonstrating above-average power and consistency. • His recent form includes steady extra-base hit production, and he matches up favorably against a White Sox pitching staff that struggles with power bats. • Lindor's true HR probability projects near 18%, which comfortably beats the implied probability of 25% (+300 odds). • The payout at +300 offers a positive expected value with a strong edge for a player with Lindor's profile.
• Donovan ranks #6 in MLB in batting average at .328 and has produced 65 hits this season, demonstrating elite consistency at the plate. • He has exceeded 1.5 hits in 40% of his games this season and is currently riding a multi-hit streak, reflecting strong recent form. • With the Cardinals offense clicking and Donovan batting near the top of the order, he should see high plate appearance volume. • At +190, the payout is excellent for a player with an estimated 40% true probability to hit this mark, resulting in strong expected value.
• Donovan ranks #6 in MLB in batting average at .328 and has produced 65 hits this season, demonstrating elite consistency at the plate. • He has exceeded 1.5 hits in 40% of his games this season and is currently riding a multi-hit streak, reflecting strong recent form. • With the Cardinals offense clicking and Donovan batting near the top of the order, he should see high plate appearance volume. • At +190, the payout is excellent for a player with an estimated 40% true probability to hit this mark, resulting in strong expected value.
• Freeman has an elite .357 average but faces a Guardians staff that limits left-handed hitters' power and overall contact. • His recent hit rate is slightly lower than his season average, with a .286 average over the last week. • At +205, the implied probability is just 32.8%, while the true probability for zero hits is closer to 44%, creating substantial value. • The payout far exceeds the risk, making this an excellent value play with a large EV+.
• Freeman has an elite .357 average but faces a Guardians staff that limits left-handed hitters' power and overall contact. • His recent hit rate is slightly lower than his season average, with a .286 average over the last week. • At +205, the implied probability is just 32.8%, while the true probability for zero hits is closer to 44%, creating substantial value. • The payout far exceeds the risk, making this an excellent value play with a large EV+.
• Cameron’s .111 average is misleading due to a tiny sample size, but his underlying contact rates and minor league history suggest he is due for positive regression. • He faces a Red Sox staff without a confirmed starter, which increases the likelihood of facing lower-leverage arms. • The implied probability is 52.4%, but a true probability near 58% is warranted based on matchup and expected plate appearances. • This is a value spot where the market has overcorrected for early season struggles.
• Cameron’s .111 average is misleading due to a tiny sample size, but his underlying contact rates and minor league history suggest he is due for positive regression. • He faces a Red Sox staff without a confirmed starter, which increases the likelihood of facing lower-leverage arms. • The implied probability is 52.4%, but a true probability near 58% is warranted based on matchup and expected plate appearances. • This is a value spot where the market has overcorrected for early season struggles.
• Hays is hitting .324 with 6 HR and a .951 OPS, showing both consistency and above-average power. • He faces a Kansas City pitching staff that has not announced its starter, which often signals a bullpen game or a weaker matchup. • Hays' recent form and underlying power metrics suggest a true HR probability near 13%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability of 14.3% at +600 odds. • The payout creates a clear value edge, making this a strong plus-EV play.
• Hays is hitting .324 with 6 HR and a .951 OPS, showing both consistency and above-average power. • He faces a Kansas City pitching staff that has not announced its starter, which often signals a bullpen game or a weaker matchup. • Hays' recent form and underlying power metrics suggest a true HR probability near 13%, which is significantly higher than the implied probability of 14.3% at +600 odds. • The payout creates a clear value edge, making this a strong plus-EV play.
• Duran’s .279 average is solid but his high strikeout rate (55 Ks) increases the probability of an 0-for game. • The implied probability at +190 is just 34.5%, while his true hitless game probability in a typical matchup is closer to 40%. • Milwaukee’s pitching staff has limited lefty bats well, which works against Duran’s profile. • The line offers a strong value edge and a clear positive expected value.
• Duran’s .279 average is solid but his high strikeout rate (55 Ks) increases the probability of an 0-for game. • The implied probability at +190 is just 34.5%, while his true hitless game probability in a typical matchup is closer to 40%. • Milwaukee’s pitching staff has limited lefty bats well, which works against Duran’s profile. • The line offers a strong value edge and a clear positive expected value.
• Lindor's 29 RBI and .809 OPS reflect a consistent ability to drive in runs, especially from prime lineup positions. • His matchup against the White Sox bullpen increases his probability of plate appearances with runners aboard. • Projected to drive in a run roughly 43% of the time, the +143 payout (implied 41.2%) creates a modest but real edge. • Lindor's run production profile and opportunity justify a strong recommendation.
• Lindor's 29 RBI and .809 OPS reflect a consistent ability to drive in runs, especially from prime lineup positions. • His matchup against the White Sox bullpen increases his probability of plate appearances with runners aboard. • Projected to drive in a run roughly 43% of the time, the +143 payout (implied 41.2%) creates a modest but real edge. • Lindor's run production profile and opportunity justify a strong recommendation.
• Yastrzemski has 5 home runs with a .779 OPS and a .261 average, indicating a solid power/contact blend. • He has been hot recently and matches up well against right-handed pitching, which is likely given the Tigers’ rotation. • His HR probability is about 11%, and with +525 odds, the expected value is significant. • This prop offers high upside with a favorable payout for a player with proven pop.
• Yastrzemski has 5 home runs with a .779 OPS and a .261 average, indicating a solid power/contact blend. • He has been hot recently and matches up well against right-handed pitching, which is likely given the Tigers’ rotation. • His HR probability is about 11%, and with +525 odds, the expected value is significant. • This prop offers high upside with a favorable payout for a player with proven pop.
• Henderson owns a .265 average with 7 home runs and a .784 OPS, ranking among the team's top run producers. • He consistently drives the ball with authority and has demonstrated above-average power for a middle infielder. • The +510 odds offer a robust return relative to his estimated 12% HR probability in this matchup. • Henderson’s combination of power and plate appearances gives this prop a strong edge with solid value.
• Henderson owns a .265 average with 7 home runs and a .784 OPS, ranking among the team's top run producers. • He consistently drives the ball with authority and has demonstrated above-average power for a middle infielder. • The +510 odds offer a robust return relative to his estimated 12% HR probability in this matchup. • Henderson’s combination of power and plate appearances gives this prop a strong edge with solid value.
• Smith is a consistent run producer with 30 RBI this season and a .278 average with runners in scoring position. • The Dodgers lineup provides ample RBI opportunities, especially with Betts and Freeman consistently getting on base ahead of him. • The +170 odds imply a 37% chance, but Smith's true RBI probability in this context is closer to 48%, creating a strong edge. • His situational hitting and lineup context support the over as a value play.
• Smith is a consistent run producer with 30 RBI this season and a .278 average with runners in scoring position. • The Dodgers lineup provides ample RBI opportunities, especially with Betts and Freeman consistently getting on base ahead of him. • The +170 odds imply a 37% chance, but Smith's true RBI probability in this context is closer to 48%, creating a strong edge. • His situational hitting and lineup context support the over as a value play.
• Varsho has already hit 7 home runs in just 14 hits, demonstrating a high home run-to-hit ratio and significant power potential. • His aggressive swing profile aligns well against an uncertain Texas pitching staff, making him a threat to go deep in any plate appearance. • A true home run probability of approximately 10% outpaces the implied probability at +500, making this a high-value play. • The payout and Varsho's all-or-nothing approach justify a strong position on the over.
• Varsho has already hit 7 home runs in just 14 hits, demonstrating a high home run-to-hit ratio and significant power potential. • His aggressive swing profile aligns well against an uncertain Texas pitching staff, making him a threat to go deep in any plate appearance. • A true home run probability of approximately 10% outpaces the implied probability at +500, making this a high-value play. • The payout and Varsho's all-or-nothing approach justify a strong position on the over.