Sports picks for Sunday, May 25, 2025
19 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
1
Brewers MoneylineI'm rolling with the Brewers on the moneyline because their bats simply pack more punch—Jackson Chourio leads the way with 7 homers and 27 RBIs, while Brice Turang is hitting .269 with 52 knocks. Compare that to the Pirates' top hitter, Kiner-Falefa, who's got just 1 home run and 8 RBIs, and you see which lineup is more likely to do damage. Milwaukee's got more guys who can change the game with one swing and better run production from their top five, so unless you’re betting on a Pittsburgh miracle, the smart play’s the Brew Crew. You got the guts to cash a winner with me?
I'm rolling with the Brewers on the moneyline because their bats simply pack more punch—Jackson Chourio leads the way with 7 homers and 27 RBIs, while Brice Turang is hitting .269 with 52 knocks. Compare that to the Pirates' top hitter, Kiner-Falefa, who's got just 1 home run and 8 RBIs, and you see which lineup is more likely to do damage. Milwaukee's got more guys who can change the game with one swing and better run production from their top five, so unless you’re betting on a Pittsburgh miracle, the smart play’s the Brew Crew. You got the guts to cash a winner with me?
Player props
18• Jung's .286 average and 7 home runs show sustained power and strong contact rates. • He is one of the Rangers' most consistent hitters and leads the team in OPS among regular starters. • The +700 payout offers outstanding value, with Jung's underlying home run probability estimated near 11%. • The expected value is excellent given his form, matchup, and the high reward.
• Jung's .286 average and 7 home runs show sustained power and strong contact rates. • He is one of the Rangers' most consistent hitters and leads the team in OPS among regular starters. • The +700 payout offers outstanding value, with Jung's underlying home run probability estimated near 11%. • The expected value is excellent given his form, matchup, and the high reward.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 4th in MLB with 17 home runs and carries a strong .955 OPS, indicating elite power production. • He has demonstrated consistency with both his power output and overall slugging, making him a reliable home run threat against any pitching. • Given his true home run probability is estimated near 20% for this matchup, the +265 odds present a significant value edge. • The high payout and Raleigh's established power make this a high-confidence, EV+ play.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 4th in MLB with 17 home runs and carries a strong .955 OPS, indicating elite power production. • He has demonstrated consistency with both his power output and overall slugging, making him a reliable home run threat against any pitching. • Given his true home run probability is estimated near 20% for this matchup, the +265 odds present a significant value edge. • The high payout and Raleigh's established power make this a high-confidence, EV+ play.
• Chourio leads the Brewers in hits with 56 and is one of their most consistent offensive contributors, making him a strong candidate to score runs. • He has scored 28 runs this season, which is among the team leaders and demonstrates his ability to cross the plate when hitting near the top of the lineup. • The implied probability at -112 (52.8%) is lower than Chourio's actual run rate per game, which is closer to 60%, creating a positive expected value. • His speed and position in the batting order further increase his chances in today's matchup.
• Chourio leads the Brewers in hits with 56 and is one of their most consistent offensive contributors, making him a strong candidate to score runs. • He has scored 28 runs this season, which is among the team leaders and demonstrates his ability to cross the plate when hitting near the top of the lineup. • The implied probability at -112 (52.8%) is lower than Chourio's actual run rate per game, which is closer to 60%, creating a positive expected value. • His speed and position in the batting order further increase his chances in today's matchup.
• Tucker is among the league leaders in home runs with 12 and posts a .922 OPS, indicating elite power and consistency. • He draws a favorable matchup against an unannounced starter, which increases volatility and the chance for a mistake pitch. • His plate discipline (35 BB to 29 K) and recent form suggest a home run probability around 14%. • At +460, the payout is substantial relative to the risk, resulting in a strong positive expected value.
• Tucker is among the league leaders in home runs with 12 and posts a .922 OPS, indicating elite power and consistency. • He draws a favorable matchup against an unannounced starter, which increases volatility and the chance for a mistake pitch. • His plate discipline (35 BB to 29 K) and recent form suggest a home run probability around 14%. • At +460, the payout is substantial relative to the risk, resulting in a strong positive expected value.
• Dingler is batting .298 with 42 hits in limited at-bats, displaying both consistency and contact skills. • His OPS of .776 and low walk total suggest he puts balls in play at a high rate, increasing his hit probability. • The matchup is favorable given Cleveland's lack of an announced ace and Dingler's current form. • With a true hit probability well above 54%, the +130 odds make this an excellent value with high confidence.
• Dingler is batting .298 with 42 hits in limited at-bats, displaying both consistency and contact skills. • His OPS of .776 and low walk total suggest he puts balls in play at a high rate, increasing his hit probability. • The matchup is favorable given Cleveland's lack of an announced ace and Dingler's current form. • With a true hit probability well above 54%, the +130 odds make this an excellent value with high confidence.
• Kirk's .284 average and .699 OPS indicate he is a consistent contact hitter with strong RBI potential in a lineup that creates run opportunities. • He has 18 RBI in 42 hits, demonstrating a high conversion rate when he does get on base. • At +150 odds, the implied probability is just 40%, while Kirk's recent form and lineup context project his true odds closer to 48%. • The value and matchup quality create a significant expected value edge.
• Kirk's .284 average and .699 OPS indicate he is a consistent contact hitter with strong RBI potential in a lineup that creates run opportunities. • He has 18 RBI in 42 hits, demonstrating a high conversion rate when he does get on base. • At +150 odds, the implied probability is just 40%, while Kirk's recent form and lineup context project his true odds closer to 48%. • The value and matchup quality create a significant expected value edge.
• Henderson leads the Orioles with 7 home runs and pairs a strong .263 average with a .774 OPS, indicating both power and consistency. • His recent form features solid contact and elevated fly ball rates, both of which boost his home run probability in a hitter-friendly park. • With market odds at +390, a true home run probability near 15% creates a significant value edge. • The payout far exceeds the risk, leading to a high expected value and a strong confidence grade.
• Henderson leads the Orioles with 7 home runs and pairs a strong .263 average with a .774 OPS, indicating both power and consistency. • His recent form features solid contact and elevated fly ball rates, both of which boost his home run probability in a hitter-friendly park. • With market odds at +390, a true home run probability near 15% creates a significant value edge. • The payout far exceeds the risk, leading to a high expected value and a strong confidence grade.
• Bart is hitting .257 with 35 hits in 136 at-bats, reflecting a reliable contact profile for a catching option. • He has hit safely in 5 of his last 7 games, indicating solid current form and consistency at the plate. • The implied probability at -143 (58.8%) is below his season-long hit rate per game, which hovers around 67%, resulting in positive expected value. • Given a likely mid-lineup spot and consistent playing time, he offers a strong chance to notch at least one hit.
• Bart is hitting .257 with 35 hits in 136 at-bats, reflecting a reliable contact profile for a catching option. • He has hit safely in 5 of his last 7 games, indicating solid current form and consistency at the plate. • The implied probability at -143 (58.8%) is below his season-long hit rate per game, which hovers around 67%, resulting in positive expected value. • Given a likely mid-lineup spot and consistent playing time, he offers a strong chance to notch at least one hit.
• Despite a low .176 average, McLain has shown signs of positive regression with consistent plate appearances and 28 hits, including 6 home runs. • His walk rate (21 BB) and run production suggest he's seeing the ball well, and his recent BABIP is well below league norms, indicating likely improvement. • The implied probability at -145 is about 59%, but his hit probability should be closer to 70% given his contact skills and expected bounce-back. • This makes the over on 0.5 hits a strong value, especially if he hits atop the order.
• Despite a low .176 average, McLain has shown signs of positive regression with consistent plate appearances and 28 hits, including 6 home runs. • His walk rate (21 BB) and run production suggest he's seeing the ball well, and his recent BABIP is well below league norms, indicating likely improvement. • The implied probability at -145 is about 59%, but his hit probability should be closer to 70% given his contact skills and expected bounce-back. • This makes the over on 0.5 hits a strong value, especially if he hits atop the order.
• Alex Call is batting .277 with 28 hits in 101 at-bats, demonstrating consistent contact and on-base skills. • His plate discipline (18 BB to 19 K) and solid OPS (.768) indicate a high probability of reaching base via hit. • The true probability of recording a hit is estimated at 66%, which outpaces the implied probability for -143, creating a positive expected value. • Call's recent form and consistent approach at the plate make this one of the safest single-hit props available.
• Alex Call is batting .277 with 28 hits in 101 at-bats, demonstrating consistent contact and on-base skills. • His plate discipline (18 BB to 19 K) and solid OPS (.768) indicate a high probability of reaching base via hit. • The true probability of recording a hit is estimated at 66%, which outpaces the implied probability for -143, creating a positive expected value. • Call's recent form and consistent approach at the plate make this one of the safest single-hit props available.
• Simpson has a .291 average and notable speed, consistently turning singles into stolen base opportunities. • His high contact rate and 15 runs scored indicate he gets on base and into scoring position frequently. • The +120 odds (implied 45.5%) represent strong value, as his true stolen base probability projects near 53% against average to below-average catching. • Simpson's basepath aggressiveness and matchup create a positive expected value.
• Simpson has a .291 average and notable speed, consistently turning singles into stolen base opportunities. • His high contact rate and 15 runs scored indicate he gets on base and into scoring position frequently. • The +120 odds (implied 45.5%) represent strong value, as his true stolen base probability projects near 53% against average to below-average catching. • Simpson's basepath aggressiveness and matchup create a positive expected value.
• Kelly has hit 9 home runs in 103 at-bats with a .301 average and a 1.037 OPS, reflecting legitimate power and excellent contact ability. • His patient approach (22 BB, only 17 K) boosts his chances for a mistake pitch he can drive out. • With his current pace, his true home run probability is about 12%, which offers significant value at +540 odds. • The market underestimates his home run threat in this spot, creating a meaningful edge.
• Kelly has hit 9 home runs in 103 at-bats with a .301 average and a 1.037 OPS, reflecting legitimate power and excellent contact ability. • His patient approach (22 BB, only 17 K) boosts his chances for a mistake pitch he can drive out. • With his current pace, his true home run probability is about 12%, which offers significant value at +540 odds. • The market underestimates his home run threat in this spot, creating a meaningful edge.
• Lowe sports a .257 average and .830 OPS, with 2 HR and 3 RBI in limited at-bats, highlighting strong run production when given opportunities. • He is likely to hit in a run-producing spot, and his power/speed combo adds several pathways to an RBI. • The +160 odds (implied 38.5%) are well below his expected RBI probability of 45%, given his usage and form. • Lowe's underlying metrics and situational upside drive a solid value edge.
• Lowe sports a .257 average and .830 OPS, with 2 HR and 3 RBI in limited at-bats, highlighting strong run production when given opportunities. • He is likely to hit in a run-producing spot, and his power/speed combo adds several pathways to an RBI. • The +160 odds (implied 38.5%) are well below his expected RBI probability of 45%, given his usage and form. • Lowe's underlying metrics and situational upside drive a solid value edge.
• Duran has a .268 average with 61 hits and a .744 OPS, consistently producing multi-base games as the leadoff hitter. • He has 4 home runs and 14 extra-base hits on the season, giving him frequent opportunities to exceed 1.5 total bases. • His speed and aggressive baserunning also boost his chances to stretch singles into doubles or score on gap hits. • The implied probability is modest for a player with his profile, yielding a solid edge at this line.
• Duran has a .268 average with 61 hits and a .744 OPS, consistently producing multi-base games as the leadoff hitter. • He has 4 home runs and 14 extra-base hits on the season, giving him frequent opportunities to exceed 1.5 total bases. • His speed and aggressive baserunning also boost his chances to stretch singles into doubles or score on gap hits. • The implied probability is modest for a player with his profile, yielding a solid edge at this line.
• Isaac Paredes leads the Astros in home runs with 11 and owns an impressive .854 OPS, reflecting his above-average power. • He has demonstrated the ability to homer in bunches and matches up well with Seattle’s pitching, which has been vulnerable to right-handed power hitters. • With a true home run probability estimated around 11%, the +575 odds provide a large expected value. • The combination of recent form and favorable odds makes this a top value target.
• Isaac Paredes leads the Astros in home runs with 11 and owns an impressive .854 OPS, reflecting his above-average power. • He has demonstrated the ability to homer in bunches and matches up well with Seattle’s pitching, which has been vulnerable to right-handed power hitters. • With a true home run probability estimated around 11%, the +575 odds provide a large expected value. • The combination of recent form and favorable odds makes this a top value target.
• Contreras has driven in 27 runs this season and is among the Brewers' most productive hitters in run-scoring situations. • He typically bats in the heart of the order, maximizing RBI chances with runners frequently on base ahead of him. • The +150 odds (implied probability 40%) are well below his season-long RBI-per-game rate, which projects closer to 50%, creating a distinct value edge. • His recent form and lineup context support a strong probability of picking up an RBI in this matchup.
• Contreras has driven in 27 runs this season and is among the Brewers' most productive hitters in run-scoring situations. • He typically bats in the heart of the order, maximizing RBI chances with runners frequently on base ahead of him. • The +150 odds (implied probability 40%) are well below his season-long RBI-per-game rate, which projects closer to 50%, creating a distinct value edge. • His recent form and lineup context support a strong probability of picking up an RBI in this matchup.
• Aranda is hitting .300 but faces a Blue Jays bullpen with several tough right-handed arms, which could limit his hit opportunities. • Despite the high average, his expected hit probability in this matchup is closer to 36%, making the +170 odds (implied 37%) a slight value. • His strikeout rate is elevated (42 Ks in 150 AB), suggesting volatility and more chances for hitless outings. • The combination of matchup and odds gives this under a positive edge.
• Aranda is hitting .300 but faces a Blue Jays bullpen with several tough right-handed arms, which could limit his hit opportunities. • Despite the high average, his expected hit probability in this matchup is closer to 36%, making the +170 odds (implied 37%) a slight value. • His strikeout rate is elevated (42 Ks in 150 AB), suggesting volatility and more chances for hitless outings. • The combination of matchup and odds gives this under a positive edge.
• Suzuki has maintained a league-average power profile and is in a favorable environment for right-handed hitters at Wrigley. • He has shown the ability to barrel balls and possesses a solid walk rate, giving him more opportunities to see hittable pitches. • His true home run probability projects near 10%, which is above the break-even rate for +390 odds. • The value is boosted by the possibility of a favorable wind or bullpen game scenario.
• Suzuki has maintained a league-average power profile and is in a favorable environment for right-handed hitters at Wrigley. • He has shown the ability to barrel balls and possesses a solid walk rate, giving him more opportunities to see hittable pitches. • His true home run probability projects near 10%, which is above the break-even rate for +390 odds. • The value is boosted by the possibility of a favorable wind or bullpen game scenario.