Daily archive

2025-05-24

The stored Gary board for Sat, May 24. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB1:06 PM EST

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Look, Giolito's ERA is uglier than a mud fence at 7.08 and his WHIP isn't doing him any favors, but the Sox lineup has real punch—Bregman and Sogard are both hitting near .300 and Duran has 59 knocks. Baltimore's top bats are lagging in average and their power isn't scaring anyone outside of Mullins. I'm banking on Boston's stronger sticks at home to bail out their starter, and if you've got the guts, you ride with the Sox here.

Boston Red Sox ML

CONF

70%

MLB2:11 PM EST

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

Look, if you're not taking Kansas City here, you either love pain or hate money. Wacha's 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP blow Zebby Matthews' 12.00 ERA and 2.67 WHIP right outta the water, and KC's got two hitters over .300—Garcia and Witt Jr.—who look ready to feast. Minnesota's top bats are cold by comparison, and Matthews looks like a deer in headlights. Royals moneyline is the only play if you got the guts to ride with me.

Kansas City Royals ML

CONF

93%

MLB2:16 PM EST

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

Listen, I like what I see from Liberatore—sub-3 ERA and a WHIP just a hair over one, pitching at home. On top of that, the Cards have two bats north of .320 in Herrera and Donovan, and Herrera’s hitting nearly .400 with some pop. Kelly’s solid too, but I’ll take the home arm with a bit more firepower in the lineup. If you’ve got the guts to back a gritty home starter and some hot bats, ride with me on the Cards ML.

St. Louis Cardinals ML

CONF

65%

MLB4:06 PM EST

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Look, Keller's 1-6 record and 1.31 WHIP don't exactly scream 'lockdown ace,' and the Pirates' top hitters are about as threatening as a wet noodle—nobody slugging, nobody driving in runs. Milwaukee's got a more dangerous bat in Turang and Chourio, plus Priester's numbers are only slightly worse but at least he's not racking up losses like parking tickets. Brewers' lineup has more punch and less baggage, so unless you're allergic to money, you ride with Milwaukee here.

Milwaukee Brewers ML

CONF

68%

MLB4:06 PM EST

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

Let’s not overthink this, kid. Kyle Harrison’s got the edge on the mound with a 3.38 ERA and a rock-solid 0.94 WHIP—he’s keeping runners off base, plain and simple. The Giants’ top bats—Ramos (.293, 9 HR), Lee (.282, 31 RBI)—have been more productive and have more pop than what the Nats are rolling out. Sure, Irvin’s been decent, but with San Fran’s lineup and the sharper arm on the hill, the smart money rides with the Giants to handle business. Got the guts to follow the numbers, or you just here for the show?

San Francisco Giants ML

CONF

70%

MLB4:11 PM EST

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Look, Holmes for Atlanta's sporting a 4.01 ERA and he hasn't exactly dominated—meanwhile, King for San Diego is dealing with a crisp 2.59 ERA and a tight 1.02 WHIP, which tells me he's been in command all season. Padres' top bats like Tatis Jr. and Merrill are both hitting over .285 with pop, while the Braves lineup is solid but not scaring anyone outside of Baldwin. Give me the steadier arm and the hotter sticks—Padres ML. You got the guts to ride with old Gary, or you gonna keep betting with your heart instead of your head?

San Diego Padres ML

CONF

76%

Player props

MLB

Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt Jr. has crossed the plate 29 times in 60 games, averaging nearly 0.5 runs per game. He faces a starter with a 12.00 ERA and a .385 BAA, greatly increasing his chances of reaching base and scoring. Given his strong on-base skills and speed, the odds are favorable for a player of his caliber in this matchup.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+108

MLB

Heliot Ramos

Ramos is hitting .293 with 26 RBI and a strong .850 OPS, showing recent consistency and clutch hitting. He faces Jake Irvin, who allows a .229 BAA and has a middling strikeout rate, making him vulnerable to contact hitters like Ramos. With 9 home runs and plenty of opportunities in the middle of the order, Ramos has an excellent shot to drive in a run. The +150 odds offer strong value on a player with solid recent production and matchup upside.

OVER 0.5 RBI+150

MLB

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is batting .250 with 55 hits, 7 HR, and 27 RBI on the season, showing consistent extra-base power. Facing Quinn Priester (4.66 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), Chourio has a favorable matchup against a pitcher who allows plenty of baserunners. With a .698 OPS and 28 runs scored, Chourio is a strong candidate to collect multiple bases, especially given his recent hot streak at the plate. The even-money odds provide a strong expected value for this over.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

MLB

Kyle Tucker

Tucker has 12 HR in 199 AB (HR every 16.6 AB) and a .926 OPS, making him one of the Cubs’ most consistent power threats. Facing Andrew Abbott, who has allowed just a .190 BAA but shows some fly ball vulnerability, Tucker’s combination of high walk rate and elite contact makes him a strong candidate to go deep. His recent form and league-leading power numbers support this value at +325.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+325

MLB

Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia is hitting .315 on the season with 57 hits, ranking #10 in MLB for batting average. Facing Zebby Matthews, who owns a 12.00 ERA and a .385 BAA, gives Garcia a premium matchup against a struggling starter. Garcia has been a consistent top-of-the-order bat and is in great form, making the plus-money odds a strong value.

OVER 1.5 Hits+335

MLB

Jackson Merrill

Merrill is hitting .337 with 32 hits in 95 at-bats and an OPS of .899, reflecting elite contact and power numbers. He’s riding a hot streak and faces Grant Holmes, whose 4.01 ERA and 1.18 WHIP suggest he's hittable. Given Merrill's consistency and matchup edge, the +180 line offers significant value for multi-hit upside.

OVER 1.5 Hits+180

MLB

Josh Jung

Jung leads the Rangers with 7 HR and has a .288 average with an .812 OPS, showing strong power and overall consistency. He faces Bryse Wilson, who has a 6.00 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, and allows a .331 BAA, making him a highly favorable matchup for right-handed power hitters. Jung's underlying metrics and recent form suggest a true HR probability near 16%. At +510, the payout far exceeds the risk, creating a strong value edge.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+510

MLB

Freddy Fermin

Fermin is batting .237 but consistently finds ways to reach base and has a contact-oriented approach. He faces a pitcher allowing a .385 BAA, making a single hit highly likely. The negative odds reflect his strong probability, but his matchup justifies a high confidence pick.

OVER 0.5 Hits-137

MLB

Brice Turang

Turang has scored 35 runs in 52 hits and owns a .277 average, making him one of the most reliable table-setters in the Brewers lineup. With a solid on-base profile and the Pirates sending out Priester (1.47 WHIP), Turang should see plenty of scoring opportunities. The near even-money odds boost the value for a player who has crossed the plate frequently this season.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-103

MLB

Christian Yelich

Yelich leads the Brewers with 30 RBI and 9 home runs, and despite a .199 average, he consistently produces in run-scoring opportunities. Priester's high WHIP and tendency to allow hits put Yelich in position to drive in runs, especially with runners like Chourio and Turang getting on base ahead of him. At +155, this prop offers excellent value on a player with strong RBI potential in a plus matchup.

OVER 0.5 RBI+155

MLB

Luis Arraez

Arraez is batting .299 with 52 hits and 19 runs scored. With his elite on-base skills and a strong lineup behind him, he’s well positioned to score. At +108, this is a plus-money bet where Arraez's contact rate and run-scoring potential give a solid statistical edge.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+108

MLB

Adolis García

García has 6 HR in 180 AB (.033 HR/AB) and faces a pitcher with a .331 BAA and 6.00 ERA, both indicators of home run susceptibility. His power profile, especially against right-handed pitching, is strong and his true HR probability is close to 13%, higher than the +430 implied odds. This combination of matchup and power makes him a top value pick.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB

Will Benson

Benson draws a favorable RBI prop at +205. Despite a modest average, his power and tendency to bat in run-producing spots raise his RBI chances, especially if he connects for extra bases. The Cubs’ offense has been productive, and Benson’s pop gives this prop positive expected value.

OVER 0.5 RBI+205