Saturday night in Death Valley, and the market has Clemson favored at home over a 5-2 Virginia Tech team that's better than its record. I see these teams as close to even, with the Hokies holding the edge that matters most, so +120 on them to win outright is a price worth taking. The quarterback edge belongs to the Hokies. Ethan Grunkemeyer went 31-of-39 for 314 at Maryland, 30-of-41 for 434 against a Pitt defense allowing 19.2 a game, and 15-of-22 for 250 against Georgia Tech. Tait Reynolds has been steady but not dangerous. Clemson's offense keeps stalling on third down, going 2-of-14 against Georgia Southern and 5-of-13 against North Carolina. Against FBS teams Clemson has scored 10, 22, 28, 24 and 13, often leaning on Hauser's leg and points the offense didn't score. Clemson's defense is the best unit on the field, but its good games came against offenses ranked 86th, 99th and 110th in scoring. LSU and Miami ran right through it. Virginia Tech's offense is a clear step up from anything Clemson has stopped. Clemson's secondary is also thin, with Corian Gipson out on top of Polo Anderson and Shavar Young Jr., and it faces the better passer. The Pitt loss undersells the Hokies. They lost 33-35 while throwing for 434 and holding Pitt to 104 rushing and 191 passing, and four giveaways did them in. The offensive line is banged up, but it played Georgia Tech without Nathaniel Wright and Montavious Cunningham and still produced 159 rushing and 250 passing. There are real risks. Virginia Tech's pass defense leaked against Maryland, Cal and Georgia Tech, and Thomas Williams is out. Hauser has hit from 59, while Love missed kicks in both of the Hokies' close losses. In a game this tight, kicking can decide who wins, and the Hokies have to win outright here. I make that close to a coin flip, and at +120 a coin flip is worth backing. Ignore the Tom Allen–James Franklin reunion and the Cal comparison, since Cal started a different quarterback in each game. This is a lean, not a hammer. If Grunkemeyer doesn't start, I'm off it.
Saturday night in Death Valley, and the market has Clemson favored at home over a 5-2 Virginia Tech team that's better than its record. I see these teams as close to even, with the Hokies holding the edge that matters most, so +120 on them to win outright is a price worth taking.
The quarterback edge belongs to the Hokies. Ethan Grunkemeyer went 31-of-39 for 314 at Maryland, 30-of-41 for 434 against a Pitt defense allowing 19.2 a game, and 15-of-22 for 250 against Georgia Tech. Tait Reynolds has been steady but not dangerous. Clemson's offense keeps stalling on third down, going 2-of-14 against Georgia Southern and 5-of-13 against North Carolina. Against FBS teams Clemson has scored 10, 22, 28, 24 and 13, often leaning on Hauser's leg and points the offense didn't score.
Clemson's defense is the best unit on the field, but its good games came against offenses ranked 86th, 99th and 110th in scoring. LSU and Miami ran right through it. Virginia Tech's offense is a clear step up from anything Clemson has stopped. Clemson's secondary is also thin, with Corian Gipson out on top of Polo Anderson and Shavar Young Jr., and it faces the better passer.
The Pitt loss undersells the Hokies. They lost 33-35 while throwing for 434 and holding Pitt to 104 rushing and 191 passing, and four giveaways did them in. The offensive line is banged up, but it played Georgia Tech without Nathaniel Wright and Montavious Cunningham and still produced 159 rushing and 250 passing.
There are real risks. Virginia Tech's pass defense leaked against Maryland, Cal and Georgia Tech, and Thomas Williams is out. Hauser has hit from 59, while Love missed kicks in both of the Hokies' close losses. In a game this tight, kicking can decide who wins, and the Hokies have to win outright here. I make that close to a coin flip, and at +120 a coin flip is worth backing.
Ignore the Tom Allen–James Franklin reunion and the Cal comparison, since Cal started a different quarterback in each game.
This is a lean, not a hammer. If Grunkemeyer doesn't start, I'm off it.
Virginia Tech Moneyline