Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies
O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 35-33
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 53 moves| Market | Opened Sep 27 4:03 PM | Close Oct 2 6:53 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Virginia Tech Hokies -5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-108) | −3 |
| TOTAL | 53.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-108) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Virginia Tech Hokies -210 | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 | +85 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 27 4:03 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -5 (-108) | 53.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -210 · Pittsburgh Panthers +170 |
| Sep 27 5:03 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -4.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -200 · Pittsburgh Panthers +160 |
| Sep 27 6:03 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -4.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -200 · Pittsburgh Panthers +160 |
| Sep 27 7:05 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -4 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -185 · Pittsburgh Panthers +150 |
| Sep 27 8:05 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -4 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -185 · Pittsburgh Panthers +150 |
| Sep 28 12:05 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -185 · Pittsburgh Panthers +150 |
| Sep 28 7:01 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -185 · Pittsburgh Panthers +150 |
| Sep 28 8:01 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -175 · Pittsburgh Panthers +145 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 53.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Sep 28 3:17 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -160 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Sep 28 4:17 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Sep 28 5:18 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-120) | 54.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +138 |
| Sep 28 6:18 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +138 |
| Sep 28 7:18 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-120) | 54.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 28 8:18 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 54.5 (-115) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +138 |
| Sep 29 11:03 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +138 |
| Sep 29 12:03 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-125) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -175 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 29 2:04 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 29 11:09 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-125) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 12:09 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -175 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 8:30 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 9:31 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 10:31 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 55.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 12:34 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-125) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 3:34 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-118) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 4:34 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 55.5 (-102) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 9:05 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Sep 30 10:05 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5 (-102) | 54.5 (-125) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +140 |
| Oct 1 5:00 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Oct 1 9:31 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-115) | 55.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Oct 1 10:01 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -165 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Oct 1 11:02 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -160 · Pittsburgh Panthers +135 |
| Oct 1 11:32 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-110) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -160 · Pittsburgh Panthers +130 |
| Oct 1 12:02 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -155 · Pittsburgh Panthers +130 |
| Oct 1 12:32 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -145 · Pittsburgh Panthers +120 |
| Oct 1 1:33 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-118) | Virginia Tech Hokies -145 · Pittsburgh Panthers +120 |
| Oct 1 4:34 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -145 · Pittsburgh Panthers +120 |
| Oct 1 5:04 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -140 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 1 6:35 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -140 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 1 8:06 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -140 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 2 12:07 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -145 · Pittsburgh Panthers +120 |
| Oct 2 12:37 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-112) | Virginia Tech Hokies -140 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 2 5:00 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -135 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 2 7:00 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -140 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 2 9:31 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies -135 · Pittsburgh Panthers +115 |
| Oct 2 5:21 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -130 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 5:42 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -130 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 5:52 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 6:02 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 6:12 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 6:22 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -130 · Pittsburgh Panthers +110 |
| Oct 2 6:33 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -1.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -120 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| Oct 2 6:43 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
| CLOSEOct 2 6:53 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies -2 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Virginia Tech Hokies -125 · Pittsburgh Panthers +105 |
The read
Friday night in Blacksburg, 76 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff. Two unbeaten ACC teams meet, and Pitt plays its first road game of the season in front of a Lane Stadium crowd. Virginia Tech has already won twice away from home this year.
I respect what Pitt has built. The Panthers rate higher on SP+ (14.7 to 12.3) and in FPI, and their defense has allowed only a 28.7% success rate. All of it came at home against a schedule ranked 119th in strength. Virginia Tech's resume is just as thin at 122nd, so the ratings don't settle this. The matchup at the line of scrimmage does, and it favors the Hokies.
The Virginia Tech front against Pitt's quarterback. This is the most dangerous unit on the field. The Hokies have 17 sacks and 44 tackles for loss through four games, a 40.3% stuff rate and front seven havoc of 0.22. Cortez Harris has 5 sacks and Aycen Stevens has 4.5. Mason Heintschel's season line is huge, but most of it came against the RedHawks and Bucknell. In the two games against better competition he threw no touchdown passes: 18 of 29 for 212 yards against UCF, and 10 of 23 for 123 yards with an interception against Syracuse. Now he brings that offense into a loud night environment for the first time this season. Pitt is also coming off 16 penalties for 165 yards against Bucknell. Against a front built on movement, slants and stunts, any communication breakdown gets punished.
The Hokies' line problem, and why it lands softly. The worry for Virginia Tech is real. Starting left tackle Justin Terry is out, Logan Howland moves to left tackle, and the interior gets reshuffled. The timing works in the Hokies' favor, though, because Pitt has the thinner and less disruptive front in this game. Ben Kauffman and Trevor Sommers are out, Zach Crothers is doubtful, and the Panthers have 8 sacks and a 0.179 havoc rate on the season. A rebuilt left side is far easier to survive against that group than the front Pitt has to block.
The rest of the Virginia Tech case. Ethan Grunkemeyer has not thrown an interception all season. Luke Reynolds (30 catches, 280 yards, 4 touchdowns) has been the centerpiece of the passing game, and Ayden Greene returns at receiver. Jeffrey Overton Jr. at 6.5 yards per carry gives the Hokies a back who can punish a Pitt defense that allows 1.379 explosiveness on successful plays. Virginia Tech finishes drives at 4.567 points per scoring opportunity. They hold a clear special teams edge in FPI efficiency, 82.036 to 70.164, and Que'Sean Brown can flip field position on punts.
What could go wrong. Pitt's defense gives up only 1.688 points per opportunity, and Virginia Tech has coughed it up 5 times, so the Hokies cannot afford loose ball security.
The price. At -2.5 for -105, I'm taking the cheaper side of the pair and only need the home team to win by a field goal.
The deciding factors are the better front seven, the home crowd, and an opponent making its first road trip.
Injuries noted
Pittsburgh Panthers: Malik Knight (out) — WR; condition unspecified.; Rodney Dunbar (out) — WR; condition unspecified.; Max Hunt (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Ben Kauffman (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Trevor Sommers (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Isaac Patterson (out) — DB; condition unspecified.; Zach Crothers (doubtful) — DL; condition unspecified.; Elijah Lagg (doubtful) — TE; condition unspecified.; Cruce Brookins (questionable) — Safety; condition unspecified.; Justin Cook (probable) — RB; condition unspecified.; Ja'Kyrian Turner (probable) — RB; condition unspecified.; Tony Kinsler (probable) — WR; undisclosed condition; October 1 update for Virginia Tech game.
Virginia Tech Hokies: Justin Terry (out) — Starting LT; injury, expected to miss multiple weeks.; Emmett Laws (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Takye Heath (doubtful) — WR; condition unspecified.; Shamarius Peterkin (doubtful) — WR; condition unspecified.; L.J. Booker (doubtful) — WR; condition unspecified.; Bill Davis (doubtful) — RB; condition unspecified.; Jojo Crim (doubtful) — CB; condition unspecified.; Lucas Austin (doubtful) — OL; condition unspecified.; Roseby Lubintus (doubtful) — OL; condition unspecified.; Montavious Cunningham (probable) — RG; practice injury.; Brody Meadows (probable) — Guard; injured against Boston College.; Luke Stuewe (probable) — WR; recovering from unspecified injury.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Ethan Grunkemeyer is VT's projected starter
7.44 Y/AEthan Grunkemeyer is VT's projected starting quarterback. October 2 game preview identifies Grunkemeyer as leading Virginia Tech's passing offense against Pitt; no explicit game-day starting announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 1012 passing yards, 74.3% completions, 7.44 yards per attempt, 8-0 TD-INT over 4 games.
Mason Heintschel is PITT's projected starter
9.16 Y/AMason Heintschel is PITT's projected starting quarterback. October 2 game preview discusses Heintschel as Pitt's quarterback for this matchup; September 29 official reporting discusses his preparations for Blacksburg. No explicit game-day starting announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 1191 passing yards, 67.7% completions, 9.16 yards per attempt, 13-1 TD-INT over 4 games.
TRENCHES
PITT: 55.3 rushing yards allowed per game to VT's 83.3
28 YPGPITT is at 55.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; VT is at 83.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 1.
PACE & SCRIPT
PITT: 8.5 points allowed per game to VT's 16
7.5 PPGPITT is at 8.5 points allowed per game over 4 games; VT is at 16 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PITT was at 24.8 over 13 games and VT at 30.2 over 12 games.
VT: 43.3 points per game to PITT's 39.3
4 PPGPITT is at 39.3 points per game over 4 games; VT is at 43.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PITT was at 33.7 over 13 games and VT at 21.4 over 12 games.
TURNOVERS
PITT: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to VT's 1.25
0.75 TOPitt is giving the ball away half a time per game through four games, down from 1.77 last season, while Virginia Tech is at 1.25 after 1.17 a year ago. Pitt's number is the one likely to climb, since turnover rates that low rarely last a full season. Virginia Tech looks like what it was last year, so the gap may narrow once Pitt's luck evens out.
MISMATCH
PITT: 347.3 pass yards a game to VT's 284.8
347.3 VS 284.8Both offenses are throwing well through 4 games, with Pitt at 347.3 yards a game and Virginia Tech at 284.8. The bigger story is the jump from last season: Pitt threw for 273.3 over 13 games, while Virginia Tech sat at 166.3 over 12 games, so the Hokies have changed more. Four games is a small sample and the schedule faced is unknown, so both numbers could settle back. If both hold, this sets up as a game where both teams throw, so passing yardage matters more than the run game.
REPLACEMENT
Max Hunt (TE) is out for PITT
OUTTE; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Rodney Dunbar (WR) is out for PITT
OUTWR; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Malik Knight (WR) is out for PITT
OUTWR; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Emmett Laws (DL) is out for VT
OUTDL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Justin Terry (OL) is out for VT
OUTStarting LT; injury, expected to miss multiple weeks. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Isaac Patterson (DB) is out for PITT
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Trevor Sommers (DL) is out for PITT
OUTDL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Ben Kauffman (DL) is out for PITT
OUTDL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Zach Crothers (DL) is doubtful for PITT
DOUBTFULDL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Elijah Lagg (TE) is doubtful for PITT
DOUBTFULTE; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Roseby Lubintus (OL) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULOL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Lucas Austin (OL) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULOL; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Jojo Crim (CB) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULCB; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Bill Davis (RB) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULRB; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
L.J. Booker (WR) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULWR; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Shamarius Peterkin (WR) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULWR; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Takye Heath (WR) is doubtful for VT
DOUBTFULWR; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Cruce Brookins (DB) is questionable for PITT
QUESTIONABLESafety; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Luke Stuewe (WR) is probable for VT
PROBABLEWR; recovering from unspecified injury. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Ja'Kyrian Turner (RB) is probable for PITT
PROBABLERB; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Justin Cook (RB) is probable for PITT
PROBABLERB; condition unspecified. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Tony Kinsler (WR) is probable for PITT
PROBABLEWR; undisclosed condition; October 1 update for Virginia Tech game. Pittsburgh News, Schedule, and Roster — Tony Kinsler: Upgraded to probable (2026-10-01)
Montavious Cunningham (OL) is probable for VT
PROBABLERG; practice injury. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
Brody Meadows (OL) is probable for VT
PROBABLEGuard; injured against Boston College. Virginia Tech Gets Encouraging Injury News on Multiple Starters Ahead of Pitt (2026-10-02)
SITUATIONAL
PITT: 347.3 team passing yards per game to VT's 284.8
62.5 YPGPITT is at 347.3 team passing yards per game over 4 games; VT is at 284.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PITT was at 273.3 over 13 games and VT at 166.3 over 12 games.
VT: 59 penalty yards per game to PITT's 84.8
25.8 YDSPITT is at 84.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; VT is at 59 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PITT was at 67 over 13 games and VT at 64.3 over 12 games.
TEAM RECORD
ACC game: PITT 1-0, VT 1-0 in conference
CONFERENCEPitt and Virginia Tech have each played one ACC game and won it, so this is a meeting of unbeaten conference teams through early October. One league game is a thin sample, and 1-0 says nothing about margin, opponent or how either team got there. The winner here takes sole control of a 2-0 start, which makes this a better spot to judge each team on its full season form than on the conference record alone.
AFTER GARY
VT -2.5 → -1.5
NOW +1Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -1.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 2, 2026 at 5:43 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKLUKE REYNOLDSANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
Luke Reynolds has scored in the same way Virginia Tech has won: steadily, without much fuss. Through four games he has 30 catches for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns. That is the most targets of anyone in this passing game, and his touchdown total matches the team's best running backs. At +112, I'm getting plus money on the player Ethan Grunkemeyer looks for when the field shrinks.
The game script supports this. Pitt's defense gives up only 1.688 points per scoring opportunity, so the Hokies will probably spend a lot of Friday night grinding through tight red-zone windows. Running in close is a split job. Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr. both have 4 rushing scores, and that split is why their prices sit at -160 and -125. I don't want to pay a premium on half a goal-line role. Reynolds has no one sharing his. When the Panthers crowd the box inside the 10, the short throw to the most reliable hands on the roster is the answer, and Grunkemeyer has not thrown an interception all season, so he will take that throw without hesitating.
The protection matchup helps too. Pitt arrives without Ben Kauffman and Trevor Sommers, Zach Crothers is doubtful, and the Panthers have only 8 sacks and a 0.179 havoc rate. Even with Justin Terry out and the left side reshuffled, Grunkemeyer should have time to go through his reads, and Reynolds is the first one. Ayden Greene coming back at receiver also keeps a safety from sitting on him.
The risk is that the touchdowns come on the ground, or that Virginia Tech settles for field goals against a defense that has been stingy at the goal line. I also know Pitt's 28.7% success rate allowed came against a soft schedule, and the Hokies' offense hasn't faced much better. Still, a player getting this kind of volume who has scored at this rate should be close to even money or shorter, so +112 is a fair price to back him.
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