It's Halloween at noon in Durham, overcast and dry, and Duke is laying more than a touchdown a week after a trick-play score with 1:14 left got it past Virginia. Boston College arrives off a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, the same place Duke lost 28-25. Duke should win this game. Winning by eight is another matter. Duke's margins against FBS teams are +14, +4, +28, -3, -4 and +3. That averages exactly seven, and the last three were all decided by four points or fewer. The offense has stalled. Against UNC it scored 20, and seven of those came on a fumble return by Andrew Pellicciotta, who's out today. At Virginia it scored 19, ran 18 times for 75 yards, went 2-of-10 on third down and held the ball for only 21:13. Across those two games Duke turned five red-zone trips into one touchdown. The defense is short-handed. Pellicciotta, DT David Anderson and corners Kimari Robinson and Kolbe Harmon are out. Pellicciotta and Anderson also missed Virginia, which ran for 221 yards. That's the opening for Mason McKenzie, BC's leading rusher with 614 yards, 170 of them last week. Manny Diaz called him the most dynamic player Duke has faced, and Bill O'Brien's "I just kept calling run" approach keeps the clock moving. Fewer possessions favor the team getting points. There's a real case for Duke. Center Matt Craycraft is back. Duke ran for at least 159 yards in all five games he started, and for 131 and 75 in the two he missed. BC's run defense gave up 258 at Cincinnati and 231 to Virginia Tech. BC also lost its two other road games by 19 and 9, and McKenzie has thrown seven interceptions. Still, BC would have covered +7.5 in four of its six FBS games, and Duke hasn't beaten anyone by more than a touchdown since September. The -128 price is steep, but the half point is the bet, and I'll pay for it.
It's Halloween at noon in Durham, overcast and dry, and Duke is laying more than a touchdown a week after a trick-play score with 1:14 left got it past Virginia. Boston College arrives off a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, the same place Duke lost 28-25.
Duke should win this game. Winning by eight is another matter. Duke's margins against FBS teams are +14, +4, +28, -3, -4 and +3. That averages exactly seven, and the last three were all decided by four points or fewer. The offense has stalled. Against UNC it scored 20, and seven of those came on a fumble return by Andrew Pellicciotta, who's out today. At Virginia it scored 19, ran 18 times for 75 yards, went 2-of-10 on third down and held the ball for only 21:13. Across those two games Duke turned five red-zone trips into one touchdown.
The defense is short-handed. Pellicciotta, DT David Anderson and corners Kimari Robinson and Kolbe Harmon are out. Pellicciotta and Anderson also missed Virginia, which ran for 221 yards. That's the opening for Mason McKenzie, BC's leading rusher with 614 yards, 170 of them last week. Manny Diaz called him the most dynamic player Duke has faced, and Bill O'Brien's "I just kept calling run" approach keeps the clock moving. Fewer possessions favor the team getting points.
There's a real case for Duke. Center Matt Craycraft is back. Duke ran for at least 159 yards in all five games he started, and for 131 and 75 in the two he missed. BC's run defense gave up 258 at Cincinnati and 231 to Virginia Tech. BC also lost its two other road games by 19 and 9, and McKenzie has thrown seven interceptions.
Still, BC would have covered +7.5 in four of its six FBS games, and Duke hasn't beaten anyone by more than a touchdown since September. The -128 price is steep, but the half point is the bet, and I'll pay for it.
Boston College +7.5