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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM

Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils

O/U 49.5 · SPREAD Duke Blue Devils -7.5 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC

GARY'S PICK
Boston College +7.5
NCAAF@ Duke· -128

Boston College
+7.5

-128 · LOST · BC 2 · DUKE 47

Duke

The pick & result

Published pick
Boston College Eagles +7.5 -128
Published odds
-128
Result
Lost
Final score
2-47

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 47 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 12:31 PM
Close
Sat 11:33 AM
Move
SPREADDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-102)Duke Blue Devils -7 (-112)−½
TOTAL47.5 (-105)49.5 (-108)+2
MONEYLINEDuke Blue Devils -275Duke Blue Devils -275Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 12:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-102)47.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Oct 25 2:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)47.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 25 3:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-102)47.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Oct 25 4:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)49.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -285 · Boston College Eagles +230
Oct 25 5:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)49.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -300 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 25 6:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)49.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -295 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 25 7:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-105)49.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -325 · Boston College Eagles +260
Oct 25 8:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -300 · Boston College Eagles +250
Oct 25 9:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-102)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -295 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 26 6:00 AMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-105)48.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -295 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 26 8:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -300 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 26 9:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7.5 (-108)48.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -300 · Boston College Eagles +250
Oct 26 10:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-118)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -295 · Boston College Eagles +240
Oct 26 11:32 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-110)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Oct 26 12:32 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 26 2:33 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 26 3:33 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)47.5 (-118)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 26 5:33 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)47.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 26 7:03 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)47.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Oct 27 6:00 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)47.5 (-115)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 27 9:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)47.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 27 1:01 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)47.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 27 2:01 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)47.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 27 2:31 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)47.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 28 8:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)47.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 28 11:32 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)47.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Oct 28 12:48 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)47.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Oct 28 5:18 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 8:30 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 10:23 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 3:02 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 4:36 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 5:06 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-115)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225
Thu 10:37 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Fri 1:57 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Fri 8:30 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Fri 10:01 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Fri 6:41 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Fri 7:02 PMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Sat 8:00 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-110)48.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Sat 9:21 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Sat 9:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Sat 9:41 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +220
Sat 10:31 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +210
Sat 10:41 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-110)Duke Blue Devils -250 · Boston College Eagles +210
Sat 11:12 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)48.5 (-112)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +210
Sat 11:23 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-108)49.5 (-105)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +210
CLOSESat 11:33 AMDuke Blue Devils -7 (-112)49.5 (-108)Duke Blue Devils -275 · Boston College Eagles +225

The read

It's Halloween at noon in Durham, overcast and dry, and Duke is laying more than a touchdown a week after a trick-play score with 1:14 left got it past Virginia. Boston College arrives off a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, the same place Duke lost 28-25.

Duke should win this game. Winning by eight is another matter. Duke's margins against FBS teams are +14, +4, +28, -3, -4 and +3. That averages exactly seven, and the last three were all decided by four points or fewer. The offense has stalled. Against UNC it scored 20, and seven of those came on a fumble return by Andrew Pellicciotta, who's out today. At Virginia it scored 19, ran 18 times for 75 yards, went 2-of-10 on third down and held the ball for only 21:13. Across those two games Duke turned five red-zone trips into one touchdown.

The defense is short-handed. Pellicciotta, DT David Anderson and corners Kimari Robinson and Kolbe Harmon are out. Pellicciotta and Anderson also missed Virginia, which ran for 221 yards. That's the opening for Mason McKenzie, BC's leading rusher with 614 yards, 170 of them last week. Manny Diaz called him the most dynamic player Duke has faced, and Bill O'Brien's "I just kept calling run" approach keeps the clock moving. Fewer possessions favor the team getting points.

There's a real case for Duke. Center Matt Craycraft is back. Duke ran for at least 159 yards in all five games he started, and for 131 and 75 in the two he missed. BC's run defense gave up 258 at Cincinnati and 231 to Virginia Tech. BC also lost its two other road games by 19 and 9, and McKenzie has thrown seven interceptions.

Still, BC would have covered +7.5 in four of its six FBS games, and Duke hasn't beaten anyone by more than a touchdown since September. The -128 price is steep, but the half point is the bet, and I'll pay for it.

Injuries noted

Boston College Eagles: Isaiah Farris (out) — DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Justin Medlock (out) — LB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Evan Dickens (out) — RB #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Sedric Addison (out) — RB #26 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Zeke Moore (questionable) — TE #48 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Pape Abdoulaye Sy (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Reed Swanson (out) — WR #80 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

Duke Blue Devils: Jamien Little (out) — WR #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Kyon Loud (probable) — CB #1 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Kimari Robinson (out) — CB #5 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jayden Moore (probable) — WR #8 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Ché Ojarikre (probable) — S #9 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Jake Taylor (probable) — TE #15 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Qeanu Johnson (out) — WR #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Kolbe Harmon (out) — CB #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Elliott Schaper (out) — LB #31 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Andrew Pellicciotta (out) — S #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Cosme Salas (out) — K #39 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; David Anderson (out) — DT #44 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Kai Jacobowitz (out) — OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Reagan McCranie (out) — OL #74 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Roman Fina (out) — OL #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jeremiah Hasley (probable) — TE #85 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Mason McKenzie is BC's projected starter

    7.37 Y/A

    Mason McKenzie is BC's projected starting quarterback. Previews from Duke Wire/Yahoo (2026-10-28), CBS Sports (2026-10-28) and Duke Basketball Report/Yahoo (2026-10-29) all call McKenzie Boston College's starting quarterback. He is also BC's leading rusher, with 614 yards and 5 TD. He ran for 170 yards and 2 TD and passed for 101 yards and 1 TD in last week's win at Georgia Tech. None of the opened sources reports an injury or limited practice for him. I could not open a BC release or depth chart confirming him as the starter, so he is listed as projected, not confirmed. 2026 line: 1260 passing yards, 58.5% completions, 7.37 yards per attempt, 7-6 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Walker Eget is DUKE's projected starter

    7.31 Y/A

    Walker Eget is DUKE's projected starting quarterback. Eget is Duke's starter. He hurt his finger on a defender's helmet in the 19-16 win at Virginia on Friday, 2026-10-23, and missed most of the first half. Dan Mahan replaced him. Eget came back in the second half with the finger taped and finished with 211 passing yards and 1 TD. Diaz said it was not an injury per se and that nothing was structurally wrong; the problem was his grip on the ball. At his Monday press conference (2026-10-26), Diaz said Eget 'should be good to go' for Saturday. CBS (2026-10-28) says he is expected to play. None of the opened sources reports his practice participation this week, and he is not on the opened Duke availability lists. He is listed as projected because Duke has not explicitly announced him as the starter. 2026 line: 1440 passing yards, 61.9% completions, 7.31 yards per attempt, 8-3 TD-INT over 7 games.

TURNOVERS

  • BC: 1.86 takeaways per game to DUKE's 1

    0.86 TO

    Boston College forces nearly two turnovers a game across 7 games, while Duke forces one. Takeaways are streaky and tend to swing, so BC's rate may cool off. Duke's offense has to be careful with the ball at home against a defense that has been taking it away.

MISMATCH

  • DUKE: 236.4 pass yards a game to BC's 180

    236.4 VS 180

    The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: BC threw for 180 passing yards a game over 7 games; DUKE threw for 236.4 passing yards a game over 7 games this season. Last season BC was at 280.2 over 12 games and DUKE at 285.4 over 14 games.

REPLACEMENT

  • Isaiah Farris (DB) is out for BC

    OUT

    DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Justin Medlock (LB) is out for BC

    OUT

    LB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Evan Dickens (RB) is out for BC

    OUT

    RB #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Sedric Addison (RB) is out for BC

    OUT

    RB #26 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Pape Abdoulaye Sy (OL) is out for BC

    OUT

    OL #75 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Reed Swanson (WR) is out for BC

    OUT

    WR #80 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Jamien Little (WR) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    WR #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Kimari Robinson (CB) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    CB #5 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Qeanu Johnson (WR) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    WR #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Kolbe Harmon (CB) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    CB #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Elliott Schaper (LB) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    LB #31 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Andrew Pellicciotta (S) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    S #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Cosme Salas (PK) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    K #39 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • David Anderson (DT) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    DT #44 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Kai Jacobowitz (OL) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Reagan McCranie (OL) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    OL #74 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Roman Fina (OL) is out for DUKE

    OUT

    OL #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

SITUATIONAL

  • DUKE: 236.4 team passing yards per game to BC's 180

    56.4 YPG

    BC is at 180 team passing yards per game over 7 games; DUKE is at 236.4 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season BC was at 280.2 over 12 games and DUKE at 285.4 over 14 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • DUKE is 3-1 at home; BC is 1-2 on the road

    3-1

    Duke has won three of four at home, while Boston College is 1-2 on the road. Those samples are four and three games, small enough that a single upset would reshape them. The venue split tilts toward Duke, which supports the home side without settling the matchup on its own.

  • ACC game: BC 2-2, DUKE 2-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the ACC. BC is 2-2 against it, DUKE is 2-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, draftkings, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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