Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
O/U 240.5 · SPREAD Denver Nuggets -5.5 · Smoothie King Center
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 104-91
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The 0-3 Pelicans come home to Smoothie King Center tonight still stinging from Saturday in Denver, where they let a 19-point fourth-quarter lead slip away. Now they get the Nuggets again, on their own floor, with the rest on their side.
The market is laying 4.5 on Denver's reputation, but the last meeting argues otherwise. New Orleans played that game on the second night of a back-to-back and still led 108-89 after three. Regulation ended 126-126, and Denver won by 6 only in overtime. Tonight the Pelicans are at home on three days off. The Nuggets arrive on one day off after Monday's home loss to Golden State. Flip the venue and the rest, and a team that played Denver even shouldn't be catching this many points.
Denver's defense is leaking. The Nuggets allowed 126 in regulation to New Orleans and 134 to Golden State. In the first meeting, the Pelicans scored 70 in the paint and 23 on the break, with Zion Williamson going 7-11. Tonight's frontcourt matchup is the same, since Yves Missi missed that game too.
Denver is also thin. Cameron Johnson is doubtful, and Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones and Alpha Diallo are out, which keeps Bryce Hopkins starting after a 2-point, 19-minute night against New Orleans. In that game, Nikola Jokic logged 44 minutes, Jamal Murray 43 and Christian Braun 40. Aaron Gordon is 4-19 over the last two and was ejected Monday. Murray's 42 points on 8-16 from three bailed Denver out Saturday. In the other two games, Murray is 3-7 from deep, and the Nuggets are shooting about 31% from three on the season.
The risk is real. New Orleans has led after three quarters in all three games and lost every fourth quarter. The Pelicans foul a lot, sending Denver to the line 39 times last time, and Jokic went for 35, 15 and 10. That fragility is exactly why I want the points, not the moneyline. Even with three late collapses, New Orleans lost by 3, by 1 and by 6 in overtime. A 4.5-point cushion covers two of those, and the third was tied after regulation.
Rested home dog, depleted road favorite that just gave up 126 in regulation to this same team. I'll take the points.
Injuries noted
Denver Nuggets: Alpha Diallo (Out) — Personal Reasons; Cameron Johnson (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain; Spencer Jones (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management; Julian Strawther (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Sprain
New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
DEN won last season's series 3-0
3-0Denver Nuggets won last season's series 3-0, by 15.7 a game across 3 meetings. Tonight is their first meeting this season.
REPLACEMENT
Spencer Jones is OUT for DEN
OUTSpencer Jones is out for Denver with a hamstring issue being managed on both legs. He is one of four Denver players out tonight, which thins the bench around Nikola Jokic.
Julian Strawther is OUT for DEN
OUTJulian Strawther is out for Denver with a left knee sprain. He is one of four Denver players out tonight, which shortens the bench around Nikola Jokic.
Cameron Johnson is OUT for DEN
OUTCameron Johnson is out for Denver with a right ankle sprain. He is the most notable of Denver's four absences tonight, and his minutes have to come from somewhere, which could mean more scoring burden for Nikola Jokic.
Alpha Diallo is OUT for DEN
OUTAlpha Diallo is out for Denver for personal reasons. He is a depth piece on a night Denver is already missing several rotation players.
Yves Missi is OUT for NOP
OUTYves Missi is out against Denver with a left knee bone bruise first reported Oct 24. New Orleans has had a few days to plan for this. Look at who picks up his minutes, since that is the role most likely to change in this matchup.
Malik Dia is OUT for NOP
OUTMalik Dia is on a two-way contract and in the G League. This has little impact on New Orleans tonight.
Jaron Pierre Jr. is OUT for NOP
OUTJaron Pierre Jr. is with the G League on a two-way deal. This has little impact on New Orleans against Denver.
SITUATIONAL
NOP on 4d, DEN on 2d
4d vs 2dNew Orleans has 4 days of rest and Denver has 2. Two days is a real gap, but neither team is on a back-to-back. The rest edge is small and goes to the home team.
STREAK
NOP has lost 3 straight
L3New Orleans is 0-3, but the three losses came by an average of 3.3 points. That makes them close games and not blowouts. Close losses over three games often even out, so the record looks worse than the scores do. Denison faces a Denver team without Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 28, 2026 at 4:44 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, draftkings, ballybet, betparx, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics, betway.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKAARON GORDONPOINTS UNDER 14.5
Gordon has scored 7 points in each of his last two games, on 4 of 19 shooting combined. The 7 against New Orleans came in 37 minutes of a 141-point overtime game, about as friendly a scoring setting as he will see, and he still couldn't get there. His role is shrinking around him. Brazile played the entire overtime in that game, from late in the third quarter on, and Jokic is calling him the X factor.
Hopkins has the starting wing spot while Cameron Johnson sits, and DeRozan comes off the bench as the second-unit scorer. Jokic and Jamal Murray run everything, and Murray put 42 on this same Pelicans team four days ago. Gordon was also ejected Monday on back-to-back technicals, which tells me his game is running hot right now. New Orleans has Herb Jones and Trey Murphy as long wings to put on him, and Mosley has said publicly he wants more minutes for Jones.
Even at full minutes, Gordon is the fourth or fifth option in this offense. I'll take the under at close to even money.
- GARY'S PICKDERIK QUEENPOINTS OVER 10.5
With Missi out on the bone bruise, the center minutes in New Orleans belong to Queen and a DeAndre Jordan who is long past being a 30-minute player. In the first meeting Queen came off the bench for 17 points and 8 rebounds in 25 minutes. That matchup should look the same tonight.
Behind Jokic, Denver's frontcourt depth is Bagley, Holmes and Nnaji, and that group had no answer for him. The Pelicans scored 70 in the paint that night, and Denver has since given up 134 to Golden State, so this defense is leaking points everywhere. New Orleans is rested at home after three days off.
Tomorrow's game against Sacramento gives Mosley a reason to spread minutes rather than ride Zion and Jordan, and that favors Queen. He has 10, 12 and 17 in three games while his role has grown, and this is the best matchup he has had. I like him to clear this number.
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