NBA · Mon, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM

Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder

O/U 221.5 · SPREAD Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 · Paycom Center

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Thunder· -115

Oklahoma City comes home 3-0 for the second night of a back-to-back, but tonight's roster isn't the one that won those games. Phoenix arrives rested at 1-1, and the question at 8.5 is whether this version of the Thunder wins by 9 or more. All three OKC wins, by 12, 12 and 7, came with the same starting five. Three of them are out tonight: Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, all first listed this afternoon. The back-to-back has been in this number since it opened. The absences are what matter. Those margins came from defense. Opponents scored 104, 84 and 101. The Clippers turned it over 26 times and Denver 22. The offense didn't build the leads: 96 against Denver, 108 against the Clippers, and 8-24, 11-43 and 14-31 from three. Wallace, Williams and Holmgren covered the ball, the wing and the rim. Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell remain, but the defense that built the cushion is thinner. The replacements are thin too. The projected lineup puts Kenrich Williams at power forward, and Williams has played 6-7 minutes a night. Behind Isaiah Hartenstein are rookie Aday Mara and Jaylin Williams, who left Sunday after five minutes. Even more of the offense runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has played 35-36 minutes every night. Mitchell and a streaky Jared McCain are the next options. The absences also take some sting out of Phoenix's biggest weakness. The Suns have been outrebounded in both games. OKC's 15 and 16 offensive rebounds the last two nights came with Holmgren next to Hartenstein. Phoenix is hard to read. The win over Golden State came against a Warriors team missing Curry, Butler, Green and more, so Devin Booker's 43 tells us little. The 41-point loss in Portland counts against them. Oso Ighodaro being out costs Phoenix little. The risks: Phoenix has turned it over 15 times in each game, and Gilgeous-Alexander at home can carry a double-digit win alone. Still, a short-handed OKC on the second night has a harder time building and holding a margin above 8.5. I lean Suns +8.5.

All three OKC wins, by 12, 12 and 7, came with the same starting five. Three of them are out tonight: Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, all first listed this afternoon. The back-to-back has been in this number since it opened. The absences are what matter.

Those margins came from defense. Opponents scored 104, 84 and 101. The Clippers turned it over 26 times and Denver 22. The offense didn't build the leads: 96 against Denver, 108 against the Clippers, and 8-24, 11-43 and 14-31 from three. Wallace, Williams and Holmgren covered the ball, the wing and the rim. Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell remain, but the defense that built the cushion is thinner.

The replacements are thin too. The projected lineup puts Kenrich Williams at power forward, and Williams has played 6-7 minutes a night. Behind Isaiah Hartenstein are rookie Aday Mara and Jaylin Williams, who left Sunday after five minutes. Even more of the offense runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has played 35-36 minutes every night. Mitchell and a streaky Jared McCain are the next options.

The absences also take some sting out of Phoenix's biggest weakness. The Suns have been outrebounded in both games. OKC's 15 and 16 offensive rebounds the last two nights came with Holmgren next to Hartenstein.

Phoenix is hard to read. The win over Golden State came against a Warriors team missing Curry, Butler, Green and more, so Devin Booker's 43 tells us little. The 41-point loss in Portland counts against them. Oso Ighodaro being out costs Phoenix little.

The risks: Phoenix has turned it over 15 times in each game, and Gilgeous-Alexander at home can carry a double-digit win alone. Still, a short-handed OKC on the second night has a harder time building and holding a margin above 8.5. I lean Suns +8.5.

The pick & result

Published pick: Phoenix Suns +8.5 -115
Published odds: -115
Result: Lost
Final score: 114-125

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Phoenix Suns: Oso Ighodaro (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Oblique Strain; Mark Williams (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Surgery

Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Patellar Tendinitis; Thomas Sorber (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery; Nikola Topic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Low back surgery; Cason Wallace (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Soreness; Jalen Williams (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Lower Leg Injury

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

OKC won last season's series 7-2
7-2
Oklahoma City handled Phoenix last season, taking 7 of 9 meetings and winning by 12.7 a game. Nine games is a real sample, so the gap between these rosters showed up again and again. Rosters turn over, though, and tonight OKC is on the second night of a back-to-back while Phoenix comes in rested. The series history makes OKC the stronger side, but the schedule gives Phoenix a better shot to keep this closer than those margins.

REPLACEMENT

Thomas Sorber is OUT for OKC
OUT
Thomas Sorber is out for OKC as he works back from offseason knee surgery. It is a known absence, but with OKC on a back-to-back, a thinner bench matters more tonight.
Nikola Topic is OUT for OKC
OUT
Nikola Topic is out for OKC with a back issue and has no clear return date. Paired with Thomas Sorber's absence, OKC's depth is a little thinner for the second night of a back-to-back.
Mark Williams is OUT for PHX
OUT
Mark Williams is out for Phoenix after left shoulder surgery. Phoenix is down its center at OKC, and the frontcourt minutes go elsewhere.

SITUATIONAL

OKC on a back-to-back, PHX rested
B2B vs 2d
Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back-to-back while Phoenix comes in with 2 days off. The Thunder at least get to play tired at home. A rest gap like this is one of the more reliable factors in the league, and it can shrink the expected margin, especially late in the game.

STREAK

OKC has won 3 straight
W3
Oklahoma City is 3-0 and has won by 10.3 a game, a solid early run. Three games is a short sample, but double-digit wins are a sign the team is playing well. Winning teams on a streak usually carry an inflated price, so judge how much of that margin is already in the line.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, rebet, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ISAIAH HARTENSTEINREBOUNDS OVER 9.5
NBAOklahoma City Thunder· -105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 13
With Chet Holmgren out, the Oklahoma City glass belongs to Isaiah Hartenstein. His minutes have climbed every night, from 17 to 23 to 27, and the last of those produced 12 rebounds. Tonight he is the only established big on the roster. Behind him are rookie Aday Mara, who has played 11 to 14 minutes, and Jaylin Williams, who left Sunday after five minutes and did not return. Unless something changes, Hartenstein should play the most minutes he has played all season. Phoenix gives up rebounds. The Suns have been outrebounded in both games. Golden State had 19 offensive rebounds against them and Portland had 16. Phoenix also misses a lot of shots: 54 at Portland, and 69 threes taken across two games with only 20 made. Long misses off the rim go to the player standing under it, and with Holmgren out that player is Hartenstein. Kenrich Williams playing power forward is a willing rebounder, but he will not take many boards from his center. Khaman Maluach is the matchup. He pulled down nine in 28 minutes against Golden State, and Booker has made defensive rebounding Phoenix's priority this week. That fight is mostly on Phoenix's end of the floor, though, and Hartenstein's rebounds come on the other end. What beats it: Oklahoma City managing his minutes on the second night of a back-to-back, foul trouble against a Phoenix team that scored 60 in the paint Saturday, or a hot Phoenix shooting night like the 50-for-86 against Golden State that leaves fewer misses. A lopsided game that sends him to the bench early would also cost him. I like the over at this price.
Isaiah Hartenstein
Rebounds over 9.5
-105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 13
Oklahoma City Thunder
With Chet Holmgren out, the Oklahoma City glass belongs to Isaiah Hartenstein. His minutes have climbed every night, from 17 to 23 to 27, and the last of those produced 12 rebounds. Tonight he is the only established big on the roster. Behind him are rookie Aday Mara, who has played 11 to 14 minutes, and Jaylin Williams, who left Sunday after five minutes and did not return. Unless something changes, Hartenstein should play the most minutes he has played all season.
Phoenix gives up rebounds. The Suns have been outrebounded in both games. Golden State had 19 offensive rebounds against them and Portland had 16. Phoenix also misses a lot of shots: 54 at Portland, and 69 threes taken across two games with only 20 made. Long misses off the rim go to the player standing under it, and with Holmgren out that player is Hartenstein. Kenrich Williams playing power forward is a willing rebounder, but he will not take many boards from his center.
Khaman Maluach is the matchup. He pulled down nine in 28 minutes against Golden State, and Booker has made defensive rebounding Phoenix's priority this week. That fight is mostly on Phoenix's end of the floor, though, and Hartenstein's rebounds come on the other end.
What beats it: Oklahoma City managing his minutes on the second night of a back-to-back, foul trouble against a Phoenix team that scored 60 in the paint Saturday, or a hot Phoenix shooting night like the 50-for-86 against Golden State that leaves fewer misses. A lopsided game that sends him to the bench early would also cost him. I like the over at this price.
GARY'S PICK
DEVIN BOOKERPOINTS OVER 22.5
NBAPhoenix Suns· -109
LOST · ACTUAL 3
22.5 is a low number for the player running Phoenix's offense, and tonight he faces a thinner Oklahoma City perimeter. Devin Booker scored 23 at Portland in 29 minutes, in a game Phoenix lost by 41 and he sat early. Saturday, in 36 minutes, he scored 43 on 17-for-25 shooting. He reached this line even on his worst night. Oklahoma City is missing two of the players it would send at him. Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams are both out, and they are the length and point-of-attack defense that built those three wins. Alex Caruso remains, and he will make Booker work, but Caruso has played 20 to 25 minutes a night. Whoever guards Booker when Caruso sits will be Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell or Kenrich Williams. Booker gets to his spots against all three. The setting helps. Phoenix had a day off, Oklahoma City played last night, and my read on the side is a game inside the number. A competitive fourth quarter keeps Booker on the floor at 35 minutes or more, and with Oso Ighodaro and Mark Williams out, Phoenix's other options do not take many shots from him. What beats it: Oklahoma City's pressure. The Clippers turned it over 26 times Sunday and Denver 22, and Phoenix has turned it over 15 times in both games. If Caruso and Mitchell turn his possessions into turnovers, or Oklahoma City sends extra defenders and Jalen Green, Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard knock down the open shots, Booker can finish around 20. A Portland-style blowout that ends his night early is the other risk. I am taking the over.
Devin Booker
Points over 22.5
-109 · LOST · ACTUAL 3
Phoenix Suns
22.5 is a low number for the player running Phoenix's offense, and tonight he faces a thinner Oklahoma City perimeter. Devin Booker scored 23 at Portland in 29 minutes, in a game Phoenix lost by 41 and he sat early. Saturday, in 36 minutes, he scored 43 on 17-for-25 shooting. He reached this line even on his worst night.
Oklahoma City is missing two of the players it would send at him. Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams are both out, and they are the length and point-of-attack defense that built those three wins. Alex Caruso remains, and he will make Booker work, but Caruso has played 20 to 25 minutes a night. Whoever guards Booker when Caruso sits will be Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell or Kenrich Williams. Booker gets to his spots against all three.
The setting helps. Phoenix had a day off, Oklahoma City played last night, and my read on the side is a game inside the number. A competitive fourth quarter keeps Booker on the floor at 35 minutes or more, and with Oso Ighodaro and Mark Williams out, Phoenix's other options do not take many shots from him.
What beats it: Oklahoma City's pressure. The Clippers turned it over 26 times Sunday and Denver 22, and Phoenix has turned it over 15 times in both games. If Caruso and Mitchell turn his possessions into turnovers, or Oklahoma City sends extra defenders and Jalen Green, Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard knock down the open shots, Booker can finish around 20. A Portland-style blowout that ends his night early is the other risk. I am taking the over.

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