NBA · Mon, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

O/U 238.5 · SPREAD Indiana Pacers -4.5 · Fiserv Forum

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Pacers· -112

Indiana walks into Fiserv Forum on the second night of a back-to-back, a night after a 136-109 romp in Brooklyn. The Pacers are laying 4.5 points to a Milwaukee team still chasing its first win under Taylor Jenkins. The records say Pacers, but the roster says the number is too big. At 4.5, absences decide covers, and Indiana is stacking them. Ivica Zubac is out with the ankle sprain that knocked Zubac out of Sunday's game in the first quarter. Jay Huff and Larry Nance Jr. filled in well, but that was against an 0-3 Nets team. Before Sunday, Huff had played 5 minutes against Dallas and sat out in New Orleans. Now that frontcourt sees Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware, fresh off 19 points and 13 rebounds in Philadelphia, where Milwaukee grabbed 17 offensive boards. Indiana had 4 on Sunday. The backcourt is thin too. T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are out, and Andrew Nembhard is questionable with neck stiffness. If Nembhard can't go, more of the ball falls to Quenton Jackson and Kelly Oubre Jr. More of the load also lands on Tyrese Haliburton in the first back-to-back of the season. Milwaukee's 0-3 is softer than it looks. The Bucks lost by 12, 7 and 11 to Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia, and they led the Bulls with 2:51 left. Indiana's two wins came against winless teams, and Dallas beat the Pacers by 16 in their own building. Sunday's 21-of-43 from three followed nights of 9-of-30 and 7-of-32. Nobody's due either way, but don't price in the hot one. What I'm not leaning on is the back-to-back itself, which was on the schedule when this line opened. The Brooklyn blowout also held Haliburton to 31 minutes and Pascal Siakam to 26, so Indiana's legs may be fresher than usual. The risk is real. Milwaukee has turned it over 16, 19 and 22 times and allowed 128, 132 and 127 points. If the giveaways keep coming, an Indiana team that piled up 34 assists Sunday can run away with it. That's why this is a lean, not a hammer. Bucks +4.5. I like it more if Nembhard sits.

The pick & result

Published pick: Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 -112
Published odds: -112
Result: Won
Final score: 102-110

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

At 4.5, absences decide covers, and Indiana is stacking them. Ivica Zubac is out with the ankle sprain that knocked Zubac out of Sunday's game in the first quarter. Jay Huff and Larry Nance Jr. filled in well, but that was against an 0-3 Nets team. Before Sunday, Huff had played 5 minutes against Dallas and sat out in New Orleans. Now that frontcourt sees Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware, fresh off 19 points and 13 rebounds in Philadelphia, where Milwaukee grabbed 17 offensive boards. Indiana had 4 on Sunday.

The backcourt is thin too. T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are out, and Andrew Nembhard is questionable with neck stiffness. If Nembhard can't go, more of the ball falls to Quenton Jackson and Kelly Oubre Jr. More of the load also lands on Tyrese Haliburton in the first back-to-back of the season.

Milwaukee's 0-3 is softer than it looks. The Bucks lost by 12, 7 and 11 to Washington, Chicago and Philadelphia, and they led the Bulls with 2:51 left. Indiana's two wins came against winless teams, and Dallas beat the Pacers by 16 in their own building. Sunday's 21-of-43 from three followed nights of 9-of-30 and 7-of-32. Nobody's due either way, but don't price in the hot one.

What I'm not leaning on is the back-to-back itself, which was on the schedule when this line opened. The Brooklyn blowout also held Haliburton to 31 minutes and Pascal Siakam to 26, so Indiana's legs may be fresher than usual.

The risk is real. Milwaukee has turned it over 16, 19 and 22 times and allowed 128, 132 and 127 points. If the giveaways keep coming, an Indiana team that piled up 34 assists Sunday can run away with it. That's why this is a lean, not a hammer.

Bucks +4.5. I like it more if Nembhard sits.

Injuries noted

Indiana Pacers: Johnny Furphy (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; T.J. McConnell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain; Andrew Nembhard (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Neck Stiffness / Soreness; Aaron Nesmith (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Tear; Ivica Zubac (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

MIL won last season's series 4-0
4-0
Milwaukee swept Indiana 4-0 last season, winning by 9 a game. Tonight is the first meeting this season. Four games is a small series, and a 9-point average is a clear edge without being a blowout pattern. Use it as background on the matchup and check this season's form before leaning on it.

REPLACEMENT

Johnny Furphy is OUT for IND
OUT
Johnny Furphy is out for Indiana with a torn right ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Indiana's rotation is already built around his absence.
T.J. McConnell is OUT for IND
OUT
T.J. McConnell is out for Indiana with a hamstring issue and has yet to make his season debut. Indiana is used to playing without him, but on a back-to-back, losing a bench guard hurts more.

SITUATIONAL

IND on a back-to-back, MIL rested
B2B vs 2d
Indiana is on the second night of a back-to-back while Milwaukee has had 2 days of rest. The road team playing tired is a familiar spot, and rest gaps like this tend to show up in second halves. The market usually prices some of it in, so the question is whether the number moved enough.

STREAK

MIL has lost 3 straight
L3
Milwaukee has lost its first 3 by an average of 10. Three games is a small sample. An 0-3 start tends to drag a team's price down, sometimes past what the roster deserves. Look at whether the losses came against strong opponents before reading too much into it.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, ballybet, betparx, betrivers, betmgm, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KYLE KUZMAREBOUNDS OVER 5.5
NBAMilwaukee Bucks· -113
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Kyle Kuzma has settled in as Milwaukee's working rebounder at power forward, pulling 6, 9 and 12 in order while the minutes climbed to 35 in Philadelphia. At 5.5, the book is asking for a quiet night from a player who hasn't had one on the glass yet. Indiana's frontcourt is the soft spot tonight. Zubac, the one Pacer who controls the boards, is out after rolling the ankle Sunday. Jay Huff starts at center and had 2 rebounds in 21 minutes at Brooklyn. Nance and Toppin bring energy, and neither is a true box-out center. The Pacers have already allowed 14, 11 and 10 offensive rebounds, and two of those games came with Zubac playing real minutes. Volume helps too. This Indiana team plays fast, Milwaukee misses plenty, and that means a lot of shots going up at both ends. Kuzma's spot at the four keeps him near the rim on both sides, and with Myles Turner going 0 for 4 in 20 minutes Saturday, Jenkins has leaned harder on Kuzma and Kel'el Ware up front. What beats it: Ware and Jaquez, who is grabbing 8.7 a game, taking the same boards; Kuzma drifting out to spot up on the perimeter; a hot Indiana shooting night that leaves fewer misses to chase; or foul trouble cutting the minutes. At -113 I'm comfortable with the over.
Kyle Kuzma
Rebounds over 5.5
-113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Milwaukee Bucks
Kyle Kuzma has settled in as Milwaukee's working rebounder at power forward, pulling 6, 9 and 12 in order while the minutes climbed to 35 in Philadelphia. At 5.5, the book is asking for a quiet night from a player who hasn't had one on the glass yet.
Indiana's frontcourt is the soft spot tonight. Zubac, the one Pacer who controls the boards, is out after rolling the ankle Sunday. Jay Huff starts at center and had 2 rebounds in 21 minutes at Brooklyn. Nance and Toppin bring energy, and neither is a true box-out center. The Pacers have already allowed 14, 11 and 10 offensive rebounds, and two of those games came with Zubac playing real minutes.
Volume helps too. This Indiana team plays fast, Milwaukee misses plenty, and that means a lot of shots going up at both ends. Kuzma's spot at the four keeps him near the rim on both sides, and with Myles Turner going 0 for 4 in 20 minutes Saturday, Jenkins has leaned harder on Kuzma and Kel'el Ware up front.
What beats it: Ware and Jaquez, who is grabbing 8.7 a game, taking the same boards; Kuzma drifting out to spot up on the perimeter; a hot Indiana shooting night that leaves fewer misses to chase; or foul trouble cutting the minutes. At -113 I'm comfortable with the over.

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