NBA · Sun, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks

O/U 224.5 · SPREAD New York Knicks -7.5 · Madison Square Garden

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Magic· -102

Two 0–2 teams meet at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, both coming off Friday losses and a day of rest. The difference is that Orlando arrives without Paolo Banchero, and the question is whether 7.5 fully covers what the Magic are without their best player. I don't think it does. Banchero was ruled out on Saturday's first report, so the number already knows. But look at the one game where Orlando's offense worked. Banchero played 41 minutes against Atlanta for 35 points on 10-of-12 with 10 assists, and the Magic still lost by 7 while allowing 132. Now Tristan da Silva, 5-of-11 and 2-of-9 so far, moves into the starting five. The extra minutes go to Jase Richardson, Jevon Carter, Goga Bitadze, Jamal Cain and Nikola Vucevic, and Cain hasn't scored in either game. With Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda also out, there's nothing behind Franz Wagner and da Silva at forward. Jalen Suggs and Wagner also inherit a ball-handling load that produced 20 and 16 turnovers even with Banchero. The bigger problems aren't shooting luck. Minnesota outrebounded Orlando 61–43 with 22 offensive boards. The Magic committed 28 and 26 fouls, and Desmond Bane and Wagner both fouled out Friday. That plays into New York's hands. The Knicks grabbed 14 and 12 offensive rebounds in their two games, and at Boston Josh Hart pulled down 12 boards while Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby had 10 each. New York's 0–2 doesn't worry me. The Knicks lost by 6 to a 76ers team now 3–0 and by 4 at Boston on a 36-point Jayson Tatum night. Jose Alvarado being out barely registers. Miles McBride is already ahead in the rotation and scored 20 in 30 minutes at Boston. The risks are real. The Knicks have scored only 100 and 103. Mikal Bridges is 0-of-8 and 2-of-8 and sat during the closing stretch at Boston. Wendell Carter Jr. has been efficient for Orlando, and Anthony Black didn't play in either game but isn't on tonight's injury report. Two games is a tiny sample. Still, a short-handed Orlando team that's losing the glass and fouling is more likely to lose by 8 or more than to stay within 7, and -102 is a fair price to back that.

I don't think it does. Banchero was ruled out on Saturday's first report, so the number already knows. But look at the one game where Orlando's offense worked. Banchero played 41 minutes against Atlanta for 35 points on 10-of-12 with 10 assists, and the Magic still lost by 7 while allowing 132. Now Tristan da Silva, 5-of-11 and 2-of-9 so far, moves into the starting five. The extra minutes go to Jase Richardson, Jevon Carter, Goga Bitadze, Jamal Cain and Nikola Vucevic, and Cain hasn't scored in either game. With Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda also out, there's nothing behind Franz Wagner and da Silva at forward. Jalen Suggs and Wagner also inherit a ball-handling load that produced 20 and 16 turnovers even with Banchero.

The bigger problems aren't shooting luck. Minnesota outrebounded Orlando 61–43 with 22 offensive boards. The Magic committed 28 and 26 fouls, and Desmond Bane and Wagner both fouled out Friday. That plays into New York's hands. The Knicks grabbed 14 and 12 offensive rebounds in their two games, and at Boston Josh Hart pulled down 12 boards while Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby had 10 each.

New York's 0–2 doesn't worry me. The Knicks lost by 6 to a 76ers team now 3–0 and by 4 at Boston on a 36-point Jayson Tatum night. Jose Alvarado being out barely registers. Miles McBride is already ahead in the rotation and scored 20 in 30 minutes at Boston.

The risks are real. The Knicks have scored only 100 and 103. Mikal Bridges is 0-of-8 and 2-of-8 and sat during the closing stretch at Boston. Wendell Carter Jr. has been efficient for Orlando, and Anthony Black didn't play in either game but isn't on tonight's injury report. Two games is a tiny sample.

Still, a short-handed Orlando team that's losing the glass and fouling is more likely to lose by 8 or more than to stay within 7, and -102 is a fair price to back that.

The pick & result

Published pick: New York Knicks -7.5 -102
Published odds: -102
Result: Lost
Final score: 111-102

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Still, a short-handed Orlando team that's losing the glass and fouling is more likely to lose by 8 or more than to stay within 7, and -102 is a fair price to back that.

Injuries noted

Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Low Grade High Ankle Sprain; Jonathan Isaac (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management; Izaiyah Nelson (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Injury Recovery; Noah Penda (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Partially Torn Hamstring

New York Knicks: Jose Alvarado (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

ORL and NYK split last season 2-2
2-2
Orlando and New York split four games last season. The series gives no edge either way, so lean on tonight's injury news, with Orlando missing several players and Black questionable.

REPLACEMENT

Noah Penda is OUT for ORL
OUT
Penda is out with a partially torn hamstring. A depth note for Orlando's wing group.
Izaiyah Nelson is OUT for ORL
OUT
Nelson is out recovering from a left ankle injury. A depth note for Orlando.
Jonathan Isaac is OUT for ORL
OUT
Isaac is out with a left knee issue. Orlando loses a defender off the bench.
Anthony Black is Questionable for ORL
Questionable
Black is questionable with a right ankle sprain. If he sits, Orlando's guard minutes get thinner against Brunson. Check his status close to tip.

SITUATIONAL

Both sides on 2 days rest
2d both
Both teams have had 2 days off. No rest edge either way.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: rebet, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, fanduel, fanatics, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JOSH HARTREBOUNDS OVER 7.5
NBANew York Knicks· -102
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 8
I expect Orlando to miss a lot of shots tonight. The Magic went 8-of-39 from three against Minnesota and 13-of-40 against Atlanta, and that was with Paolo Banchero, the one player who has scored efficiently at volume. He's out. Tristan da Silva moves into the starting five, and the minutes behind him go to Jase Richardson, Jevon Carter and Jamal Cain. That means plenty of long misses coming off the rim, and those are the rebounds Josh Hart chases down better than anyone on the floor. Hart has started at the four and played 30 and 36 minutes. He grabbed 12 boards at Boston and 7 against Philadelphia. He also has less competition on his own side. Andre Drummond went from 24 minutes in the opener to 7 at Boston, so more of the glass belongs to the starters. Orlando won't take many of its own misses back either. Minnesota beat the Magic on the boards 61 to 43. A blowout beats this. I have New York covering the 7.5, and if the Knicks pull away early, Hart could spend the fourth quarter on the bench. Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, who had 10 rebounds each at Boston, can also take the long boards Hart usually collects. At -102, I'll take the over on 7.5.
Josh Hart
Rebounds over 7.5
-102 · CASHED · ACTUAL 8
New York Knicks
I expect Orlando to miss a lot of shots tonight. The Magic went 8-of-39 from three against Minnesota and 13-of-40 against Atlanta, and that was with Paolo Banchero, the one player who has scored efficiently at volume. He's out. Tristan da Silva moves into the starting five, and the minutes behind him go to Jase Richardson, Jevon Carter and Jamal Cain. That means plenty of long misses coming off the rim, and those are the rebounds Josh Hart chases down better than anyone on the floor.
Hart has started at the four and played 30 and 36 minutes. He grabbed 12 boards at Boston and 7 against Philadelphia. He also has less competition on his own side. Andre Drummond went from 24 minutes in the opener to 7 at Boston, so more of the glass belongs to the starters. Orlando won't take many of its own misses back either. Minnesota beat the Magic on the boards 61 to 43.
A blowout beats this. I have New York covering the 7.5, and if the Knicks pull away early, Hart could spend the fourth quarter on the bench. Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, who had 10 rebounds each at Boston, can also take the long boards Hart usually collects. At -102, I'll take the over on 7.5.
GARY'S PICK
WENDELL CARTER JR.POINTS OVER 11.5
NBAOrlando Magic· -113
LOST · ACTUAL 9
With Paolo Banchero out, Orlando has to find its scoring somewhere, and Wendell Carter Jr. has been the Magic's most reliable source. He scored 22 on 8-of-10 against Atlanta and 20 on 8-of-9 against Minnesota in 31 and 29 minutes. He has also been willing to shoot threes, going 4-of-7 across the two games. That matters tonight because Karl-Anthony Towns will guard him for most of his minutes, and Carter can pull Towns away from the basket. The rest of Orlando's shot makers are cold. Desmond Bane is 7-of-26 and da Silva is 7-of-20. With Banchero's 23 shots across two games gone, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner will carry the ball, and a center who finishes at the rim and spaces to the arc is the easiest outlet in a stalled halfcourt offense. Carter only needs his normal touches, and probably gets more, to clear 11.5. Three things can beat it. His shooting is running hotter than it can stay, and some of those looks came from Banchero, who had 10 assists against Atlanta. Goga Bitadze and Nikola Vucevic can take center minutes, and Orlando has committed 28 and 26 fouls, so foul trouble could cut his night short. If New York runs away with the game, his fourth quarter shrinks too. At -113, I'll take the over on 11.5.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Points over 11.5
-113 · LOST · ACTUAL 9
Orlando Magic
With Paolo Banchero out, Orlando has to find its scoring somewhere, and Wendell Carter Jr. has been the Magic's most reliable source. He scored 22 on 8-of-10 against Atlanta and 20 on 8-of-9 against Minnesota in 31 and 29 minutes. He has also been willing to shoot threes, going 4-of-7 across the two games. That matters tonight because Karl-Anthony Towns will guard him for most of his minutes, and Carter can pull Towns away from the basket.
The rest of Orlando's shot makers are cold. Desmond Bane is 7-of-26 and da Silva is 7-of-20. With Banchero's 23 shots across two games gone, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner will carry the ball, and a center who finishes at the rim and spaces to the arc is the easiest outlet in a stalled halfcourt offense. Carter only needs his normal touches, and probably gets more, to clear 11.5.
Three things can beat it. His shooting is running hotter than it can stay, and some of those looks came from Banchero, who had 10 assists against Atlanta. Goga Bitadze and Nikola Vucevic can take center minutes, and Orlando has committed 28 and 26 fouls, so foul trouble could cut his night short. If New York runs away with the game, his fourth quarter shrinks too. At -113, I'll take the over on 11.5.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NBA game this day The NBA record Today's NBA picks Every sport this day