NBA · Fri, Jan 16 · 7:10 PM

New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Pacers· -108

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Indiana Pacers New Orleans Pelicans Record 9-32 → 10-33 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries B. Mathurin (O), O. Toppin (O) H. Jones (O), D. Murray (O) Gary's Take Zion Williamson’s interior gravity remains the most difficult puzzle for this Indiana frontcourt to solve, especially with the Pacers missing their most mobile rim protector in Isaiah Jackson. In the first meeting this season, New Orleans dominated the paint in a 19-point victory, and that structural mismatch is even more pronounced tonight. Zion is shooting 57.9% from the field and coming off an efficient 25-point performance. Indiana’s current starting center, Jay Huff, lacks the lateral quickness to contain Zion’s downhill drives, which should lead to high-efficiency looks and foul trouble for a Pacers unit that is already dangerously thin. The timing of this matchup favors New Orleans due to the fresh loss of Bennedict Mathurin, who provided nearly 18 points per game for Indiana. Without him, the Pacers lack a consistent perimeter creator to take pressure off Pascal Siakam. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are riding the hot hand of Trey Murphy III, who just dropped 34 points and is averaging 22.2 PPG. The emergence of rookie center Derik Queen as a high-post passing hub has unlocked Murphy’s perimeter game, forcing Indiana’s defense to pick their poison between Zion’s rim pressure and Murphy’s 38.9% three-point shooting. While the Pelicans have struggled on the road, their scoring depth is significantly more robust than Indiana’s right now. The Pelicans' bench outscores Indiana’s reserves 45.8 to 39.3, providing a critical safety net for their rookie-led backcourt. Indiana’s offensive rebounding will keep them competitive, but their 10.8% turnover rate is a liability against a Pelicans team that is starting to find offensive synergy. I expect the Pelicans to control the interior and use their superior individual shot-making to keep this within a possession or win outright. Take the New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -108.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL)

Indiana Pacers New Orleans Pelicans Record 9-32 → 10-33 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries B. Mathurin (O), O. Toppin (O) H. Jones (O), D. Murray (O)

Gary's Take Zion Williamson’s interior gravity remains the most difficult puzzle for this Indiana frontcourt to solve, especially with the Pacers missing their most mobile rim protector in Isaiah Jackson. In the first meeting this season, New Orleans dominated the paint in a 19-point victory, and that structural mismatch is even more pronounced tonight. Zion is shooting 57.9% from the field and coming off an efficient 25-point performance. Indiana’s current starting center, Jay Huff, lacks the lateral quickness to contain Zion’s downhill drives, which should lead to high-efficiency looks and foul trouble for a Pacers unit that is already dangerously thin.

The timing of this matchup favors New Orleans due to the fresh loss of Bennedict Mathurin, who provided nearly 18 points per game for Indiana. Without him, the Pacers lack a consistent perimeter creator to take pressure off Pascal Siakam. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are riding the hot hand of Trey Murphy III, who just dropped 34 points and is averaging 22.2 PPG. The emergence of rookie center Derik Queen as a high-post passing hub has unlocked Murphy’s perimeter game, forcing Indiana’s defense to pick their poison between Zion’s rim pressure and Murphy’s 38.9% three-point shooting.

While the Pelicans have struggled on the road, their scoring depth is significantly more robust than Indiana’s right now. The Pelicans' bench outscores Indiana’s reserves 45.8 to 39.3, providing a critical safety net for their rookie-led backcourt. Indiana’s offensive rebounding will keep them competitive, but their 10.8% turnover rate is a liability against a Pelicans team that is starting to find offensive synergy. I expect the Pelicans to control the interior and use their superior individual shot-making to keep this within a possession or win outright. Take the New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -108.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -108
Published odds: -108
Result: Awaiting grade
Final score: Not available

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL)

Injuries noted

New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray (Out); Jose Alvarado (Out); Herbert Jones (Out); Hunter Dickinson (Out)

Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (OFS); Bennedict Mathurin (Out); Obi Toppin (Out); Isaiah Jackson (Out); Taelon Peter (Out); Ethan Thompson (Out)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored January 16, 2026 at 3:44 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
YVES MISSIPOINTS OVER 5.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -116
7:10 PM ET
This is a prime example of a 'derivative laziness' edge where the books haven't adjusted a bench player's line to his new starting volume. Yves Missi played a season-high 34 minutes in his last outing, recording 12 points and 12 rebounds. His scoring doesn't require plays to be run for him; he lives on offensive put-backs and lobs, where his 16.9% offensive rebound rate—one of the highest in the league—will dominate an Indiana frontcourt that has struggled with size since trading Myles Turner. At a line of just 5.5, Missi only needs three baskets to hit. In a high-pace game with a 238 total, the number of 'scraps' at the rim should be more than enough for him to clear this low hurdle. The risk is rookie foul trouble, but the minute floor shift is too significant to ignore.
Yves Missi
Points over 5.5
-116 · 7:10 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
This is a prime example of a 'derivative laziness' edge where the books haven't adjusted a bench player's line to his new starting volume. Yves Missi played a season-high 34 minutes in his last outing, recording 12 points and 12 rebounds.
His scoring doesn't require plays to be run for him; he lives on offensive put-backs and lobs, where his 16.9% offensive rebound rate—one of the highest in the league—will dominate an Indiana frontcourt that has struggled with size since trading Myles Turner. At a line of just 5.5, Missi only needs three baskets to hit.
In a high-pace game with a 238 total, the number of 'scraps' at the rim should be more than enough for him to clear this low hurdle. The risk is rookie foul trouble, but the minute floor shift is too significant to ignore.
GARY'S PICK
ZION WILLIAMSONPOINTS UNDER 23.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -102
7:10 PM ET
While the matchup against Indiana's weak interior looks enticing, the structural reality of the Pelicans' current offense favors the Under. New Orleans has shifted Zion into a 'Point Zion' role, where he acts as the primary distributor to feed the hot hand of Trey Murphy III (31.7 PPG in Jan). This has effectively capped Zion's scoring, as seen in his season average of 22.4, which sits below this 23.5 line. Casual bettors will see 'No rim protection' for Indy and hammer the Over, but the game logic suggests Zion will prioritize facilitation in Indiana's fast-paced, high-possession environment. Fading a star while his role has shifted toward facilitating is a classic sharp angle, especially when a teammate is on a historic scoring heater. The risk is Zion deciding to take over late, but his current usage doesn't support a 24-point floor.
Zion Williamson
Points under 23.5
-102 · 7:10 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
While the matchup against Indiana's weak interior looks enticing, the structural reality of the Pelicans' current offense favors the Under. New Orleans has shifted Zion into a 'Point Zion' role, where he acts as the primary distributor to feed the hot hand of Trey Murphy III (31.7 PPG in Jan).
This has effectively capped Zion's scoring, as seen in his season average of 22.4, which sits below this 23.5 line. Casual bettors will see 'No rim protection' for Indy and hammer the Over, but the game logic suggests Zion will prioritize facilitation in Indiana's fast-paced, high-possession environment.
Fading a star while his role has shifted toward facilitating is a classic sharp angle, especially when a teammate is on a historic scoring heater. The risk is Zion deciding to take over late, but his current usage doesn't support a 24-point floor.

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