Sports picks for Friday, January 16, 2026

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Providence Friars Creighton Bluejays Record 8-9 → 11-7 Conf Record 1-5 → 5-2 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries [object Object] (O) None Gary's Take Austin Swartz's perimeter explosion—coming off 33 points and eight triples—provides the exact mechanism for Creighton to dismantle a Providence defense that is statistically the most vulnerable in the Big East. The Friars currently rank 315th in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow a league-worst 37.8% from three-point range. While the Bluejays are in a grueling schedule spot, playing their fifth game in twelve days, their offensive identity is perfectly calibrated to exploit the Friars' inability to rotate to shooters in Kim English's high-pace system. The uncertainty surrounding Jason Edwards, Providence's leading scorer who is a game-time decision with a foot injury, further tilts this matchup toward the more stable Bluejays core. Without Edwards' 17.2 PPG to drive their transition attack, the Friars must rely on a freshman-heavy roster to execute in the half-court against Greg McDermott’s drop-coverage defense. Creighton leads the Big East in effective field goal percentage during conference play, and their senior leadership, featuring Josh Dix and Jasen Green, provides the stability needed to weather the hostile environment at The AMP. Providence is currently 0-3 at home in conference play and has struggled to find defensive rhythm, allowing the highest 3PT percentage in the league. Even if Oswin Erhunmwunse provides interior efficiency, the math problem created by Creighton’s high-volume three-point attack is one Providence hasn't shown the capacity to solve. Expect Swartz and Ty Davis to find open looks early and often, negating the fatigue factor through elite offensive execution. I am betting on the superior efficiency and tactical continuity of the Bluejays to win this outright. Take the Creighton Bluejays ML -118.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Kansas Jayhawks Baylor Bears Record 12-5 ← 11-5 Conf Record 2-2 ← 1-3 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Bill Self's defensive structure at Allen Fieldhouse is currently the gold standard in the Big 12, leading the conference in both field goal percentage defense (38.3%) and three-point defense (28.2%). While Baylor brings a top-20 scoring offense to Lawrence, the absence of Dan Skillings Jr. creates a catastrophic void in their rotation. Skillings was Baylor's primary defensive eraser and second-leading rebounder; without him, the Bears are forced into a thin seven-man rotation that must now account for Darryn Peterson's 21.8 PPG scoring gravity. Peterson has been virtually unguardable in transition, and Baylor’s 160th-ranked defensive rating suggests they lack the discipline to stay attached to him for forty minutes. Inside the paint, Flory Bidunga provides a second layer of security that Baylor cannot match. Bidunga’s 2.5 blocks per game anchor an interior defense that allows Kansas to play aggressively on the perimeter, knowing they have elite rim protection behind them. Baylor’s Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou are explosive, but they are facing a Jayhawks squad that just dismantled No. 2 Iowa State by 21 points. In that matchup, Kansas proved their baseline efficiency is significantly higher than their 2-2 conference record suggests. Baylor’s defensive lapses, coupled with the fatigue of a shortened bench in a hostile environment, point toward a late-game surge by the Jayhawks. I expect Kansas to dominate the glass and force enough contested jumpers to win this by double digits. Take the Kansas Jayhawks -7.5 -108.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) DePaul Blue Demons Marquette Golden Eagles Record 10-7 ← 6-12 Conf Record 2-4 ← 1-6 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries None None Gary's Take DePaul’s defensive identity under Chris Holtmann is starting to take hold at the perfect time. The Blue Demons currently lead the Big East in two-point field goal defense, holding conference opponents to a stifling 42% inside the arc. This creates a massive structural problem for Marquette, a team that has struggled with efficiency all season and currently sits at the bottom of the league in field goal percentage. NJ Benson is coming off a record-tying 16-rebound performance and anchors a DePaul interior that should dominate the glass against a Marquette frontcourt that may be missing starting center Ben Gold. Marquette’s road struggles are the other half of this equation. The Golden Eagles have dropped five consecutive road contests and are coming off a demoralizing 24-point loss to St. John’s. While Shaka Smart’s high-pressure system generates plenty of steals (9.2 per game), DePaul’s methodical pace—ranking 324th nationally—is designed to minimize those transition opportunities and force Marquette into the half-court grind they desperately want to avoid. In a half-court battle, DePaul’s superior length and interior presence give them a clear advantage. Ultimately, I’m betting on the team that protects its home floor and is currently playing its best basketball of the season. DePaul is 8-3 at Wintrust Arena and enters tonight on back-to-back conference wins, while Marquette looks like a team searching for answers offensively. CJ Gunn and Brandon Maclin have provided enough secondary scoring to complement Benson’s interior work, and against a Marquette defense that just gave up 92 points, they should find enough clean looks to cover this small number. DePaul wins a physical, low-possession game by 5-7 points. Take the Blue Demons to cover the short spread at home.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Indiana Pacers New Orleans Pelicans Record 9-32 → 10-33 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries B. Mathurin (O), O. Toppin (O) H. Jones (O), D. Murray (O) Gary's Take Zion Williamson’s interior gravity remains the most difficult puzzle for this Indiana frontcourt to solve, especially with the Pacers missing their most mobile rim protector in Isaiah Jackson. In the first meeting this season, New Orleans dominated the paint in a 19-point victory, and that structural mismatch is even more pronounced tonight. Zion is shooting 57.9% from the field and coming off an efficient 25-point performance. Indiana’s current starting center, Jay Huff, lacks the lateral quickness to contain Zion’s downhill drives, which should lead to high-efficiency looks and foul trouble for a Pacers unit that is already dangerously thin. The timing of this matchup favors New Orleans due to the fresh loss of Bennedict Mathurin, who provided nearly 18 points per game for Indiana. Without him, the Pacers lack a consistent perimeter creator to take pressure off Pascal Siakam. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are riding the hot hand of Trey Murphy III, who just dropped 34 points and is averaging 22.2 PPG. The emergence of rookie center Derik Queen as a high-post passing hub has unlocked Murphy’s perimeter game, forcing Indiana’s defense to pick their poison between Zion’s rim pressure and Murphy’s 38.9% three-point shooting. While the Pelicans have struggled on the road, their scoring depth is significantly more robust than Indiana’s right now. The Pelicans' bench outscores Indiana’s reserves 45.8 to 39.3, providing a critical safety net for their rookie-led backcourt. Indiana’s offensive rebounding will keep them competitive, but their 10.8% turnover rate is a liability against a Pelicans team that is starting to find offensive synergy. I expect the Pelicans to control the interior and use their superior individual shot-making to keep this within a possession or win outright. Take the New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 -108.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Brooklyn Nets Chicago Bulls Record 11-27 → 19-21 Off Rating N/A ←→ N/A Def Rating N/A ←→ N/A Net Rating N/A ←→ N/A Key Injuries [object Object] (O), [object Object] (O) [object Object] (O), [object Object] (O) Gary's Take Nikola Vucevic is playing some of the most inspired basketball of his season right now, and that creates a massive structural problem for a Brooklyn team that looks lost on the interior. Vucevic is fresh off a 35-point masterclass against Utah, and he leads a Bulls unit that ranks near the top of the NBA in paint scoring. Compare that to the Nets, who rank dead last in the league in interior production, and you see the clear path to victory for Chicago. Brooklyn relies almost exclusively on perimeter volume, but the Bulls' ability to generate high-percentage looks at the rim provides a much more stable scoring floor. Brooklyn's current five-game losing streak isn't just a result of bad luck; it is a reflection of a stagnant offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency. Michael Porter Jr. is an elite shooter, but even his career-high scoring hasn't been enough to compensate for a Nets bench that is missing key defensive versatility. The Bulls play at one of the fastest paces in the league, and I expect Tre Jones and Coby White to push the tempo and exploit a Brooklyn transition defense that is missing its primary wing stoppers. Even without Josh Giddey, the Bulls have stabilized their rotation and remain competitive in the play-in race. They possess the superior Net Rating in this matchup and have shown much better recent form than a Nets squad that has lost eight of its last nine. In a game where the spread is essentially a pick'em, I'm backing the team that can score the easy buckets inside. I see Vucevic controlling the glass and Chicago's pace wearing down a demoralized Nets squad. I am taking the Chicago Bulls ML +105.

TALE OF THE TAPE (VERIFIED FROM BDL) Houston Rockets Minnesota Timberwolves Record 23-15 → 27-14 Net Rating +5.5 ←→ +6.1 Effective FG% 53.7% ←→ 58.5% Key Injuries Eason/DFS (O) A. Edwards (O) Gary's Take Rudy Gobert's return to the Minnesota frontcourt creates a specific schematic problem for a Houston offense that has become increasingly reliant on Alperen Sengun's interior playmaking. While Gobert was serving his one-game suspension, the Timberwolves proved they could maintain elite defensive discipline, dismantling Milwaukee by 33 points. Now, with the league's premier rim protector back to shadow Sengun, the Rockets are forced into a perimeter game that has been their undoing lately. Houston has struggled significantly with their shot selection and execution, hitting just 24 percent from deep over their last six contests, and they now face a Minnesota unit that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. The situational context here is where the real edge lies. Houston is playing their second game in 24 hours after a physical loss to the Thunder, while Minnesota arrives with three full days of rest. This rest disparity is often undervalued in small spreads, but for a Rockets team missing its primary defensive wings in Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith, fatigue will manifest in late-rotation collapses. Without those stoppers, the Rockets lack the personnel to contain Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, who have both seen usage spikes in the absence of Anthony Edwards. Statistically, the gap in shot quality is staggering. Minnesota’s 58.5 percent effective field goal percentage is a massive jump over Houston’s 53.7 percent, and that five-point efficiency buffer is hard to overcome for a tired team. Even without Edwards, the Wolves have found a rhythm with the ball in Randle’s hands, allowing them to reach 99 consecutive games of scoring 100 or more points. Houston’s home record is impressive, but their 0-6 mark against the spread in recent weeks reveals a team that the market is overvaluing based on early-season momentum. I expect the fresher, more efficient Timberwolves to control the glass and the pace, making the 4.5 points a luxury in a game they are likely to win outright. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 -105.

The market is anchored to season-long stats that don't reflect Washington's current roster depletion. The Kings are trending upwards, whereas the Wizards are trending downwards due to key roster changes. The Wizards' Net Rating (-11.0) is not reflective of their current playing level.