NBA · Sun, Jan 11 · 6:10 PM

New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers

Moda Center

Gary's pick

Portland Trail Blazers +5.5-112

Result

LLostFinal 123-114

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

New York Knicks Portland Trail Blazers Record 24-14 ← 19-20 Net Rating +5.4 ← -1.4 eFG% 56.7% ← 53.6% Bench PPG 17.8 → 38.0 Road/Home Record 7-10 → 10-9 Key Injuries Josh Hart (Q) Jerami Grant (OUT)

Gary's Take The market is still pricing the New York Knicks based on their early-season dominance, but the reality on the ground has shifted significantly. The Knicks are currently flailing, having lost five of their last six games, and the common denominator is the absence of Josh Hart. Without Hart’s connective tissue, New York’s rebounding and transition defense have cratered. While Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns provide elite offensive efficiency, they are struggling to close games against disciplined units, and a 7-10 road record suggests they aren't the same juggernaut outside of Madison Square Garden.

Portland, meanwhile, is the hottest team in the league that nobody is talking about. They enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak, largely due to the emergence of Deni Avdija as a legitimate point-forward threat. Avdija’s ability to create for Shaedon Sharpe while Donovan Clingan anchors the interior gives the Blazers a balanced attack that matches up well with New York's current limitations. Clingan’s presence is particularly vital here, as he has the size and mobility to challenge Towns on the perimeter and protect the rim when Brunson drives.

The most glaring edge in this matchup is the bench production. Portland’s second unit is nearly doubling the output of the Knicks' bench, which has become one of the thinnest groups in the league following recent rotation shifts. Even if the Knicks' starters build an early lead, the Blazers have the depth to claw back during the middle quarters. With New York sliding and Portland unbeaten in their current homestand, laying points with a struggling road favorite is a recipe for a bad beat. I expect a high-variance game that comes down to the final possessions, making the home underdog the clear value play. Take the Portland Trail Blazers to keep this within the number and potentially win it outright.

Injuries noted

New York Knicks: Josh Hart (Questionable) — Hart hasn't played since Dec. 25 due to a sprained right ankle. Even though his presence Sunday is uncertain, the fact that he's been upgraded to questionable means he's trending in the right direction. The absence of Hart has opened up more playing time for Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson, but both would be in line to see fewer minutes if Hart returns to the hardwood.; Landry Shamet (Out) — Shamet hasn't played since Nov. 22 due to a right shoulder sprain and remains without a timetable for a return. He progressed to on-court activities in late December, though he should be considered doubtful for future contests until the Knicks provide an update on his recovery.; Guerschon Yabusele (Questionable) — Yabusele is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game due to a right quadriceps contusion. The 30-year-old forward has logged double-digit minutes in just two of his last five appearances, so his absence wouldn't cause any significant waves in the rotation.

Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday (Probable) — Holiday hasn't played since Nov. 14 due to a right calf strain but is trending in the right direction after receiving a questionable tag. If the veteran point guard is cleared to play, it wouldn't be surprising to see him operate under a minutes restriction. Still, his presence would leave fewer minutes available for the likes of Caleb Love and Rayan Rupert.; Jerami Grant (Out) — Grant hasn't played since Dec. 18 due to a nagging Achilles injury, and it seems he doesn't have a clear date for his return to the hardwood. Caleb Love should continue to see steady minutes with Grant out, and the veteran will aim to be ready for Tuesday's matchup against the Warriors.; Matisse Thybulle (Out) — The Trail Blazers aren't yet able to bring a return timetable into focus for Thybulle. That said, it sounds like the forward could be multiple weeks away from being cleared to return to game action.; Scoot Henderson (Out) — Henderson has begun non-contact, on-court basketball activities and has advanced to the next stage of his rehab. The Trail Blazers are bringing him along slowly, and there's no guarantee he returns right after the re-evaluation.; Blake Wesley (Out) — A fifth metatarsal fracture is a notoriously tough injury to recover from, and there's a high chance of experiencing a setback if brought back too soon, so it wouldn't be shocking to see his absence extend beyond this 12-week window. At minimum, he'll be out through the end of December, so he can safely remain on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues.; Damian Lillard (Out For Season) — Lillard underwent surgery on a torn Achilles tendon in his left foot over the summer after suffering the injury during the first round of the NBA playoffs with the Bucks against the Pacers. The veteran guard was then waived by Milwaukee on July 1, making him an unrestricted free agent. The future Hall of Famer then decided to return to the Blazers on a three-year contract worth $42 million with a player option for the 2027-28 season. He also has a no-trade clause in his deal.; Kris Murray (Out) — Murray will miss a third straight game since he's dealing with a lumbar strain, but his absence won't cause a lot of issues in most fantasy formats. His next chance to play will come against the Warriors on Tuesday.; Robert Williams III (Probable) — Williams left during the second quarter of the Trail Blazers' 111-105 win over the Rockets on Friday after sustaining a right knee injury. If he's not cleared to play Sunday, then Yang Hansen would be in line for a more prominent role off the bench behind starting center Donovan Clingan.

About this analysis

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Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Board stored January 11, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET.
Odds record
The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Source names were not retained with this call.
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