Sports picks for Sunday, January 11, 2026

Opening drive equity: The Bills often script early touches for James Cook to establish the run. With 14 total touchdowns this season and Ty Johnson out, Cook is the most likely candidate to finish an opening drive. RB1s historically account for 28% of first touchdowns, and Cook's 0.82 TD/game rate makes him the statistical favorite here. Key factors: • High early-game usage in Buffalo's offensive script. • Bills' offense is highly efficient on opening possessions. • Jacksonville's defense may be caught off guard by Buffalo's balanced attack. Risk: Josh Allen (700 odds) is equally likely to run one in himself. Confidence: 25% | First TD equity: present

Odds value: +260 in a game with a 51.5 total. Kincaid has 5 touchdowns in 12 games (0.42/g) and is a primary target for Josh Allen when plays break down. The Jaguars have struggled against athletic tight ends, and Kincaid's 14.6 yards per reception suggests he can score from outside the 20-yard line as well. Key factors: • 0.42 TD/game rate in a high-scoring offensive environment. • High total (51.5) increases the probability of multiple passing touchdowns. • Josh Allen's trust in Kincaid during high-leverage third-down and red zone situations. Risk: Dawson Knox (4 TDs) often splits red zone looks at the tight end position. Confidence: 60% | Value rating: moderate

James Cook is the engine of the Bills' backfield, recording 14 total touchdowns in 17 games (0.82 per game) during the 2025 season. With backup Ty Johnson ruled OUT due to an ankle injury, Cook's projected workload increases significantly in a game with the highest total on the slate (51.5). The Jaguars' defense faces a Bills offense that averaged 95.4 rushing yards per game from Cook alone. Key factors: • Elite production with 12 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns this season. • Increased snap share expected with secondary back Ty Johnson inactive. • High-scoring game script (51.5 O/U) provides maximum red zone opportunities. Risk: Josh Allen remains a significant threat to vulture rushing touchdowns at the goal line. Confidence: 85% | TD equity: high

Josh Allen is essentially the Bills' goal-line back, leading the team with 14 rushing touchdowns in 17 games. In a projected shootout (51.5 total), Allen's ability to scramble or take designed runs near the pylon makes him a near-lock for scoring opportunities. He has practiced fully this week despite a minor foot injury in Week 18. Key factors: • 14 rushing touchdowns in 17 games (0.82/g) is elite for any position, let alone QB. • Bills' pass-heavy red zone approach often breaks down into Allen scrambles. • Jacksonville's defense must account for both Cook and Allen in the read-option game. Risk: Bills may opt to pass more frequently if Allen's foot injury limits his designed runs. Confidence: 80% | TD equity: high

The market is pricing NAW like a secondary bench piece when he is currently playing like a primary scoring option, averaging 21.4 PPG over his last five games. My edge is the consistency of his volume; he has cleared this 18.5 line in four of his last five outings, thriving as the Hawks' designated floor-spacer in the new offensive hierarchy. With the Warriors likely focusing their defensive rotations on Jalen Johnson, NAW will continue to see high-quality looks in a game expected to be a shootout. The risk is that the debuts of CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert could immediately siphon off shot attempts. I'm betting it anyway because NAW's defensive value will keep him on the floor for 30+ minutes, and his current shooting rhythm is too elite to ignore at this low number.

The market's line of 22.5 is a massive mistake because it doesn't account for Jalen Johnson's transformation into Atlanta's undisputed 'Alpha' following the Trae Young trade. My specific edge is the usage vacuum; Johnson's usage has surged over 30% recently, and he's already averaging 23.7 PPG on the season, making this line lower than his season average despite a significantly larger role. In a game script with a 235.5 total and a high-paced Warriors opponent, Johnson will have ample possessions to attack a Golden State interior that ranks 20th in paint defense. The risk is Draymond Green's veteran defensive IQ potentially baiting the young star into foul trouble or turnovers. However, I'm betting this because a 30% usage player with Johnson's downhill athleticism is a lock for 20+ shots tonight.

Odds value: +230 for the Chargers' leading TD receiver (8 TDs in 14 games). Johnston has emerged as Justin Herbert's favorite target in the end zone, averaging 0.57 touchdowns per game. As road underdogs, the Chargers may be forced into a more aggressive passing script, benefiting their primary deep and red zone threat. Key factors: • Leading the Chargers with 8 receiving touchdowns this season. • High 0.57 TD/game rate suggests these odds should be closer to +150. • Matchup against a Patriots secondary that will likely focus on Keenan Allen. Risk: Chargers' offensive philosophy under Jim Harbaugh can be run-heavy. Confidence: 70% | Value rating: strong

Odds value: +270 for a player with 9 touchdowns in 15 games (0.60/g). Jennings has become a red zone specialist for Brock Purdy, often being the third or fourth option that defenses ignore in favor of McCaffrey or Kittle. With the 49ers as 6-point underdogs, a pass-heavy script in the second half is likely. Key factors: • High efficiency with 9 touchdowns on just 15 games played. • Reliable 'Big Slot' role makes him a mismatch for smaller cornerbacks in the red zone. • Potential for increased targets if Ricky Pearsall (Questionable) is limited. Risk: Low overall target volume compared to McCaffrey and Kittle. Confidence: 65% | Value rating: strong

McCaffrey remains the most consistent scoring threat in the NFL, averaging exactly 1.00 touchdowns per game with 17 TDs in 17 starts. His versatility is unmatched, having recorded 10 rushing and 7 receiving touchdowns this year. Facing an Eagles defense missing Azeez Ojulari, McCaffrey should see heavy usage as both a runner and a safety valve for Brock Purdy. Key factors: • Perfect 1:1 touchdown-to-game ratio over a full 17-game sample. • Dual-threat capability makes him script-proof, whether the 49ers are leading or trailing. • High red zone target share as the primary option in the 49ers' passing progression. Risk: Philadelphia's defensive front is stout, and the 49ers are 6-point underdogs. Confidence: 90% | TD equity: high

The line of 19.5 is a massive undervaluation of a player who becomes a one-man offense whenever Michael Porter Jr. sits out. With MPJ's 26 points per game removed from the lineup, Thomas's usage rate spikes to a staggering 40%, ensuring he will see 20+ field goal attempts tonight. While he's recently dealt with a hamstring issue, the Nets' lack of alternative scoring options forces them to lean on Thomas for every critical possession. The primary risk is a minutes restriction if the coaching staff remains cautious, but Thomas's scoring efficiency in a high-volume role typically clears 20 points even in 28 minutes of action. You bet this because the usage vacuum is simply too large for the books to price correctly, especially in a contract year where Thomas is motivated to put up numbers.

The market is hanging a 6.5 line on a player who has cleared this mark in four of his last five games and now steps into a massive rebounding void with Zach Edey sidelined. Aldama's 7.2 rebound average over the last week is no fluke, as he's being asked to anchor the glass for a Memphis team that lacks interior depth. Tonight's matchup is a dream scenario, as the Brooklyn Nets are officially the worst rebounding team in the NBA, ranking 30th in boards per game. The risk is if Jaren Jackson Jr. has a career-high rebounding night and siphons off the defensive boards, but the Nets' inability to box out creates enough second-chance opportunities for both. You bet this because the structural mismatch between the league's worst glass-cleaners and a starting-role Aldama is too wide to ignore.

Trevor Lawrence is entering the playoffs on an MVP-esque surge, and this 222.5 line is a gift considering he's cleared 250 yards in four straight full games. My edge is catching the market before it adjusts to his late-season efficiency, where he's averaged roughly 280 yards per game over his last four relevant starts. The game script is perfect for passing volume, with a high 51.5 total and a tight spread ensuring neither team can afford to go conservative. While the Bills defense is formidable, they are missing key pieces like LB Terrel Bernard, which should open up the middle of the field for Lawrence's quick-strike passing game. The risk is a low-possession game, but the 'shootout potential' environment makes that unlikely. Lawrence's recent form and the 24.8 implied team total make this over a high-probability play.

The 39.5 line for Josh Allen is based on his season averages, but it fails to account for the 'Playoff Allen' effect where his rushing volume typically spikes in must-win games. My edge is the historical context of Allen taking over with his legs in the postseason, combined with his record-breaking 14 rushing TDs this season proving his mobility is at an all-time high. In a toss-up game with a 1.5-point spread, Allen will be forced to use his legs to extend drives against a Jaguars defense that ranked 3rd in points allowed per drive. The risk is a spy-heavy defensive scheme, but Allen's physical dominance makes him nearly impossible to stop when he commits to running. I'm taking the over because his recent form shows he's already ramping up (48 and 78 yards in 2 of last 3 full games) and the high-stakes environment demands his maximum rushing output.

The market is significantly undervalueing Parker Washington, setting his line at 47.5 despite him leading the Jaguars in targets and catches during the 2025 season. My edge here is the massive discrepancy between this line and his recent production, where he's averaged 80.0 yards over his last five games and cleared this total in four of those five. With a game total of 51.5 suggesting a shootout, Trevor Lawrence will lean on his most reliable target who has emerged as the clear alpha in this passing attack. The risk is the Bills secondary focusing on him, but Washington's high volume (6.4 targets/game avg) provides a safe floor. I'm betting this because his role as the primary possession receiver is locked in, and the shootout script ensures he'll see the 8+ targets needed to crush this low number.

Steven Adams is the most physical force on the court tonight, and the Kings have zero answer for him with Sabonis sidelined. Adams is already averaging 8.6 boards on the season in limited minutes, but his real edge is on the offensive glass where he leads the league with 4.5 OREB per game. Sacramento's interior defense is non-existent right now, allowing the most points in the paint and struggling to secure defensive rebounds. Houston is the #1 rebounding team in the league, and they will likely dominate the glass against a Kings squad that is sliding toward the lottery. The blowout risk is real, but Adams usually does his damage early, and he only needs his season average to hit this. If he logs 24+ minutes, his floor is double digits against this undersized frontcourt.

The market is hanging a 27.5 line that ignores Durant's recent surge, where he's cleared this in four of his last five games while averaging nearly 30 a night. With Alperen Sengun out, the Rockets' offense is funneling even more through KD, and he's facing a Sacramento defense that is currently the worst in the league. The Kings have no one to put on him with Keegan Murray out, and Durant is historically efficient in high-pace environments like the Golden 1 Center. As -13 favorites, Houston will look to KD to build an early lead, and his elite 62.4% True Shooting suggests he won't need massive volume to hit this. The only risk is a massive blowout limiting his 4th quarter minutes, but KD's milestone chasing (passing Dirk) and Houston's need to snap a losing streak should keep him aggressive early.

The 222.5 line is a reputation number for a superstar QB that ignores the physical and historical reality Herbert faces in Foxborough. Herbert is playing through a fractured left hand, an injury that complicates his ability to take snaps under center and handle the ball-handling nuances of Greg Roman's run-heavy scheme. Historically, Herbert has been stifled by New England's defensive structures, posting a dismal 72.8 passer rating in four career meetings. With the Patriots' defense entering the playoffs on a 5-game winning streak and the weather projected in the 30s with 20mph gusts, this is a nightmare environment for a precision passer with a hand injury. The risk is a garbage-time volume spike if L.A. falls behind, but the Chargers' commitment to the run and Herbert's limited mobility make this a low-volume affair.

Vegas is anchoring to Vidal's early-season backup status rather than his recent explosion into the lead role. Since Najee Harris moved to IR and Omarion Hampton's status became questionable, Vidal has taken the reins, punctuated by a massive 126-yard performance in his last outing. The Chargers' offensive identity under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman is built on the ground game, and Vidal is currently the only healthy explosive option in that room. Even in a competitive script where the Chargers are slight underdogs, Roman's scheme will force-feed the hot hand to take pressure off a banged-up Justin Herbert. The risk is a blowout where they abandon the run, but the -3.5 spread suggests a one-score game where Vidal's fresh legs will be the focal point of the L.A. offense.

The market is pricing Diggs at 54.5 based on a few low-volume games late in the season, but this ignores the schematic goldmine he is walking into. The Chargers' defense relies heavily on two-high safety looks, a coverage shell Diggs has shredded this year as Drake Maye's primary read. With a 26% target share and a revenge narrative against an old AFC rival, Diggs is the clear engine of this Patriots passing attack in a high-stakes playoff environment. New England's implied total of 24.5 suggests they will move the ball effectively, and Diggs is the guy who creates the chunk plays needed to sustain drives. The risk is the cold weather limiting the deep ball, but Diggs' route-running excellence in the intermediate game makes him a strong bet to clear this modest line.

With Isaiah Hartenstein sidelined, Chet Holmgren has transformed into a double-double machine, averaging 10.4 rebounds over his last five outings. He has cleared this 8.5 line in four of his last five games, including massive efforts of 12 and 15 boards. Tonight's matchup is a perfect storm for rebounding volume, as Miami's #1 ranked pace ensures a high number of shot attempts and subsequent misses. While Bam Adebayo is a tough box-out, Chet's 38% contested rebound rate shows he isn't just picking up scraps—he's fighting for the ball. The risk is Chet getting pulled away from the rim by Miami's shooters, but his recent usage as the primary rim protector makes 9 rebounds a very achievable target.

The market is offering 30.5 on a guy averaging nearly 32, which is a gift considering the track meet he's about to enter. Shai is facing a Miami team that has abandoned their slow-and-grind identity for the league's fastest pace (104.5), creating the exact high-possession environment where he thrives. With Terry Rozier out, Miami lacks the point-of-attack defense to stop Shai from getting to his spots at the rim and the free-throw line. The risk is a blowout where he sits the fourth quarter, but with his 109-game streak of 20+ points and a recent 46-point explosion, he usually does his damage early. Betting on the reigning MVP in a pace-up game is the sharpest move on the board.

Giannis is going to treat the Ball Arena paint like his personal playground with Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas both out of the lineup. Denver is missing over 20 rebounds per game of production from their frontcourt, leaving Aaron Gordon as their only legitimate glass-cleaner. Even on a minutes restriction, Giannis has averaged 10.4 boards over his last five games and consistently finds himself in position for easy defensive rebounds in Denver's slow-paced system. The Bucks' own rebounding struggles (ranked 27th) mean Giannis has to do the heavy lifting himself, ensuring his rebound rate remains elite. While the altitude can be a factor, the lack of physical resistance at the rim makes this 10.5 line look soft.

The market is still pricing Watson near his season average, but he has undergone a total role transformation with Jokic and Murray sidelined. I see Watson continuing his scoring tear as the Nuggets' primary offensive engine, having cleared this 18.5 line in five straight games. With Jokic's 20+ shots per game vacated, Watson's usage has spiked to over 28%, and he's averaging nearly 25 points this month. The Bucks' defense is middle-of-the-pack, and they don't have a wing defender with the length and speed to contain Watson's current aggressive mindset. The only risk is a massive shooting slump, but his high-efficiency 51% FG floor makes that unlikely in a high-volume role.

Derik Queen has evolved into a legitimate point-center for New Orleans, and the books haven't adjusted to his massive playmaking leap. With the Pelicans missing their primary ball-handlers in Alvarado and Jones, Queen has seen his assist average spike to 6.0 over the last four games, culminating in a 12-assist masterclass just two nights ago. Orlando's defense is stout, but they often struggle with bigs who can facilitate from the high post, which is exactly where Queen thrives. The risk here is a potential blowout leading to reduced 4th quarter minutes, but Queen's 'untouchable' status in trade rumors suggests the coaching staff will keep him on the floor regardless of the score. Bet this because he's essentially playing the Nikola Jokic role for this depleted roster right now.

The market is asleep at the wheel with a 21.5 line for a guy currently leading the NBA in January scoring at nearly 35 points per night. Trey Murphy has fully ascended into the Pelicans' primary scoring role with Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado sidelined, as evidenced by his career-high 42-point explosion earlier this week. In this game script, the Pelicans enter as 6.5-point underdogs and will need Murphy's elite floor-spacing to keep pace with Orlando's high-octane offense. The primary risk is Orlando's 11th-ranked defense focusing their entire scheme on stopping him, but his current volume of 6.7 made threes per game provides a statistical floor that makes this line look like a clerical error. Even if he regresses toward his season average, his current usage vacuum makes 22 points a very reachable target.

The market is pricing Camara like a role player at 13.5, but he has evolved into a secondary scoring pillar during Portland's five-game win streak. He has cleared this point total in five consecutive games, averaging 17.6 points over that span—a significant jump from his 13.2 season average. With the Blazers' backcourt depth depleted, Camara is logging heavy minutes (36.8 MPG lately) and benefiting from the defensive attention focused on Avdija and Sharpe. The risk here is a regression in his three-point shooting, as he hit five triples in his last outing, but his floor has stabilized well above this line. I'm taking the over because his increased minutes and shot volume are consistent, not a fluke, and the Knicks' perimeter defense has been leaky during their recent slump.

The line of 25.5 is anchored to Avdija's season average, but it completely ignores his explosion since becoming Portland's primary offensive engine with Lillard and Grant sidelined. Over his last five games, he is averaging a massive 31.4 points, clearing this number in four of those contests including a 41-point outburst. As the Blazers ride a five-game winning streak, Avdija is seeing elite usage and playing 36+ minutes per night as the focal point of their 'chaos' offense. The primary risk is drawing OG Anunoby's defensive attention, but the sheer volume of shots Avdija is taking (averaging 31.4 PPG recently) makes this line look far too low. I'm betting this because his role has fundamentally changed, and the market hasn't caught up to his status as a 30-point threat.

The line of 19.5 is a significant market oversight, sitting well below Fox's 21.0 season average despite a projected high-scoring environment. While he has had a minor scoring dip recently, he remains the Spurs' most reliable source of individual offense and their primary closer in tight games. As +2.5 road underdogs in a game with a 235.5 total, San Antonio will rely on Fox's ability to penetrate the paint and get to the free-throw line. The risk is fatigue-induced shooting inefficiency on the second night of a back-to-back, but his volume in the fourth quarter provides a reliable floor. Bet this because the line has overcorrected for a small sample size, and Fox is the go-to guy in a projected shootout.

The market is anchoring this line to Gobert's 11.3 season average, ignoring a dominant five-game stretch where he hasn't dipped below 12 boards once. His recent 13.4 average is the product of elite positioning and a Timberwolves defense that is funneling shots into his vicinity. With Minnesota enjoying a rest advantage at home while the Spurs navigate a travel-heavy back-to-back, Gobert will have the physical edge in the paint to capitalize on tired legs and missed shots. The primary risk is if Victor Wembanyama plays and drags Gobert to the perimeter, but even then, Gobert's contested rebound rate remains among the league's best. Bet this because the situational fatigue for San Antonio creates a perfect environment for Gobert to continue his double-digit rebounding heater.

I'm hammering the over on Saquon because the San Francisco defense is essentially a hollowed-out shell in the middle. Losing Fred Warner and the rest of the starting linebacker corps is a death sentence against a back of Barkley's caliber, especially one averaging over 91 yards in his last five outings. The weather forecast of high winds and rain will force Philadelphia to keep the ball on the ground, funneling massive volume to Barkley. San Francisco has already shown cracks, giving up over 130 yards per game to RBs recently, and that was with better health. The risk is Jalen Hurts vulturing too many carries, but the yardage floor for Barkley is elevated by the lack of disciplined tackling in the 49ers' second level. This is a structural mismatch that the Eagles will exploit from the first whistle.

The market is pricing Purdy based on his season averages, but the 'Gary vision' sees a total shutdown in the Philadelphia elements. We are looking at sustained 14 mph winds and gusts approaching 40 mph, which historically guts the 49ers' timing-based passing attack. Purdy has already shown a significant floor drop in wet, windy weather, notably his 168-yard clunker against Cleveland. Facing an Eagles secondary that allows the lowest completion percentage in the league (56.8%), Purdy won't have the windows to push the ball downfield. The risk is a late garbage-time surge if the 49ers trail big, but the competitive spread suggests a tight, low-scoring trench battle. Bet this under because the weather is the ultimate 12th man today.

Opening drive equity: The Patriots' game plan at home will likely focus on ball security and clock management, leading to high early volume for Stevenson. He has 9 touchdowns in 14 games and is the engine of the New England offense. As a 3.5-point favorite, New England will look to score first and play from ahead. Key factors: • Patriots' offensive identity is built around Stevenson's success. • Chargers' defense is traveling across time zones, often leading to slow starts. • Stevenson's role as both a runner and receiver on the opening script. Risk: Drake Maye's mobility could lead to a broken-play TD early. Confidence: 20% | First TD equity: present

Odds value: +360 for a receiver with 6 touchdowns in 14 games (0.43/g). Boutte has developed strong chemistry with Drake Maye and has become a reliable scoring threat. At these odds, you are getting a player who scores in nearly half his games at a massive payout. Key factors: • 0.43 TD/game rate is significantly higher than these +360 odds imply. • Emerging as a preferred target for rookie QB Drake Maye. • Chargers' secondary can be vulnerable to explosive plays. Risk: Low floor if the Patriots rely exclusively on the run game with Stevenson. Confidence: 55% | Value rating: strong

Stevenson is the clear lead back for a Patriots team favored by 3.5 points at home. He has maintained a strong scoring rate of 0.64 touchdowns per game (9 TDs in 14 games) and is the primary goal-line option. Against a Chargers defense traveling across the country, Stevenson's physical running style is expected to be the centerpiece of the Patriots' red zone attack. Key factors: • Strong 0.64 TD/game average with 7 rushing and 2 receiving scores. • Home favorite status suggests a positive game script for the running game. • Primary beneficiary of Drake Maye's ability to extend drives into the red zone. Risk: Drake Maye's own rushing ability (4 TDs) could take away goal-line carries. Confidence: 75% | TD equity: medium

Opening drive equity: Philadelphia is a 6-point home favorite and typically looks to establish Barkley early to set the tone. Against a 49ers defense missing Fred Warner, the Eagles are likely to exploit the middle of the defense immediately. Barkley's 28% positional equity for first TDs makes him the smartest play in this matchup. Key factors: • Eagles' tendency to run behind their elite offensive line on scripted plays. • Missing Fred Warner significantly weakens SF's early-game run fits. • Barkley is the primary goal-line option for the favored home team. Risk: Jalen Hurts (600 odds) often takes the first goal-line carry. Confidence: 30% | First TD equity: present

Odds value: +200 for a player with 11 touchdowns in 15 games (0.73/g) is an incredible oversight by the market. Goedert is the Eagles' primary red zone target, and with backup TE Grant Calcaterra on IR, his snap count and target share should be near 100%. The 49ers' defense is vulnerable in the middle of the field without Fred Warner. Key factors: • Exceptional 0.73 TD/game rate, higher than many elite WRs. • Absence of Fred Warner (IR) creates a massive void in SF's tight end coverage. • PHI -6 spread suggests multiple red zone trips for the Eagles' offense. Risk: Competition for targets with DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley. Confidence: 78% | Value rating: strong

Barkley is the focal point of a Philadelphia offense favored by 6 points at home. He has recorded 9 touchdowns in 16 games this season and benefits immensely from the absence of 49ers' All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (IR). As a home favorite, the game script likely favors a heavy dose of Barkley to control the clock and finish drives. Key factors: • Facing a 49ers defense missing its primary run-stuffer and leader (Fred Warner). • Home favorite status (PHI -6) typically correlates with high RB1 touchdown equity. • Consistent volume with 7 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving scores this season. Risk: Jalen Hurts vulturing short-yardage touchdowns via the 'Tush Push' maneuver. Confidence: 82% | TD equity: high

The market is giving us a discount on Dillon Brooks with a line of 19.5, despite him averaging 21.3 points on the season. With Jalen Green ruled out tonight, the Suns lose a significant chunk of their scoring, and Brooks is the primary candidate to absorb that usage alongside Booker. He's already shown he can handle the load, clearing 20 points in three of his last five games, including a 27-point outburst in his most recent outing. Washington is the perfect opponent for a volume-heavy wing, as they allow a league-worst 124.3 points per game and lack the perimeter defenders to contain Brooks' aggressive style. The risk is that Booker takes every shot, but Brooks' 20.6 PPG average over his last five suggests he's already a focal point of this offense. Facing a defense that essentially offers a red carpet to the rim, Brooks should reach 20 points before the bench takes over in the fourth.

Royce O'Neale has become the model of consistency on the glass, securing at least 6 rebounds in four of his last five outings. The market is still hanging a 5.5 line despite his 5.8 average over the last week and a season-long baseline that suggests he's always around the ball. Tonight's matchup is a dream for a role-playing rebounder, as the Wizards play at the 8th fastest pace in the league and rank near the bottom in field goal percentage defense, leading to a high volume of missed shots. While the -14 spread suggests a blowout, O'Neale's role as a versatile wing usually keeps him on the floor even in lopsided games to provide veteran stability. The risk is a total collapse of the Wizards' offense where they simply don't miss, but given their 10-27 record, that is unlikely. I'm backing the high floor and the pace-up environment for O'Neale to clear this mark for the fifth time in six games.