Daily archive

2026-01-12

The stored Gary board for Mon, Jan 12. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers

TALE OF THE TAPE Cleveland Cavaliers Utah Jazz Record 22-18 ← 13-25 Net Rating +2.5 ← -6.5 Pace 104.1 → 103.6 EFG% 54.3% → 55.3% Key Injuries Dean Wade Ace Bailey Gary's Take This spread is a massive over-correction based on two extreme statistical outliers from last Saturday. The market is pricing this game as if the Utah Jazz are a historical disaster after their 55-point loss to Charlotte, while simultaneously treating the Cleveland Cavaliers as an unstoppable juggernaut following their 146-point explosion against Minnesota. In thirty years of betting, I have learned that the best time to back a professional team is immediately after they have been thoroughly embarrassed. This is the 'Dead Cat Bounce' in its purest form; the Jazz are facing a 'pride check' tonight, and NBA teams almost always respond with a high-intensity defensive effort after a humiliation of that magnitude. Cleveland is walking into a classic letdown spot. After playing their most efficient game of the season against a top-tier Timberwolves defense, it is nearly impossible to maintain that level of focus and shooting accuracy, especially against an opponent the public has already written off. While Donovan Mitchell is playing elite basketball, the Cavaliers are likely to experience significant offensive regression. When a team exhales after a big win, they often struggle to put away a motivated underdog, and a 13.5-point spread provides an enormous amount of room for error. The pace of this game also favors the underdog side of the spread. Both teams rank in the top ten for pace of play, which creates more possessions and increases the likelihood of high-scoring variance. In a high-possession environment, a double-digit lead is never safe from garbage-time compression. Even if Cleveland controls the game, Utah’s bench—led by Brice Sensabaugh and Kyle Filipowski—is productive enough to chip away at the lead in the closing minutes to secure a cover. Lauri Markkanen remains a matchup nightmare for any frontcourt, and his ability to pull Cleveland's rim protectors away from the basket will open up driving lanes for Keyonte George and Collin Sexton. While the Jazz may not have the defensive consistency to win this game outright on the road, they have more than enough offensive talent to keep the final margin within three or four possessions. I am betting on professional pride and market regression here. Utah Jazz +13.5.

Utah Jazz +13.5-105

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings

TALE OF THE TAPE Los Angeles Lakers Sacramento Kings Record 23-13 ← 9-30 Net Rating +0.4 ← -11.3 Road/Home Record 13-6 ← 6-13 Bench Depth 24.7 ← 18.0 Key Injuries Reaves (OUT) Sabonis (OUT) Gary's Take The Los Angeles Lakers are entering a massive situational advantage tonight in Sacramento. With three days of rest under their belts, LeBron James and Luka Doncic should be fresh and ready to exploit a Kings team that is not only playing the second night of a back-to-back but is also missing its heart and soul in Domantas Sabonis. The absence of Sabonis and Keegan Murray leaves a gaping hole in the Kings' frontcourt that rookie Maxime Raynaud and Precious Achiuwa simply aren't equipped to fill against the likes of Deandre Ayton and a returning Rui Hachimura. While the Lakers have had their own struggles recently, losing two straight without Austin Reaves, this is a prime spot to get back on track. The Kings' defensive rating has been abysmal all season, and without Sabonis to facilitate the offense and anchor the glass, they become a one-dimensional perimeter team. Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan can all score, but they lack the defensive discipline to stop a motivated Luka Doncic, who is looking to erase the memory of a poor showing against Milwaukee. With Malik Monk forced into more playmaking duties due to the suspension of Dennis Schroder, the Kings' second unit loses its primary scoring punch. The scheduling situation has done the Kings no favors here. Teams on no rest against opponents with three-plus days of rest typically see a significant drop-off in efficiency in the fourth quarter. I expect the Lakers to pull away late as the Kings' tired legs lead to turnovers and missed assignments. The talent gap, combined with the extreme rest disparity, makes this a clear spot for the Lakers to assert their dominance and cover the number on the road. I'm laying the points with the Lakers as they overwhelm a depleted and exhausted Kings squad.

Los Angeles Lakers -9.5-112

Player props

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is in a nuclear groove right now, averaging 31.0 PPG over his last five contests and clearing this 29.5 line in four of them. He faces a Utah Jazz defense that is currently the worst in the NBA and is reeling from a 55-point loss where they looked completely disinterested in guarding the perimeter.

OVER 29.5 Points-111

· L5 Points: 28, 30, 30, 33, 34 (31.0 avg)
· Season avg: 29.8 PPG
· Revenge Factor: Mitchell vs former team Utah

NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers

John Collins

The books are asleep at the wheel on John Collins, still pricing him based on his 13.3 PPG season average despite a massive role expansion. Over his last five games, he's been a different player, averaging nearly 20 points and clearing this 14.5 line in every single outing (25, 16, 18, 18, 22). With Kawhi Leonard questionable and the Clippers missing several key rotation pieces like Beal and Jones Jr., Collins has become a primary scoring option in Ty Lue's system.

OVER 14.5 Points-108

· L5 points: 25, 16, 18, 18, 22 (avg 19.8)
· Season avg: 13.3 PPG
· Minutes: 32.8 avg in L5 vs 27.4 season avg

NBA · Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers

Neemias Queta

I'm all over Neemias Queta tonight because the books are still pricing him like a backup despite his massive recent production. Since being promoted to the primary starting center role, he's been a monster on the boards, averaging 12.2 rebounds over his last five games—clearing this 8.5 line in four of those five. He even recorded a 20-rebound night against Philly recently.

OVER 8.5 Rebounds-114

· L5 Rebounds: 13, 6, 20, 13, 9 (12.2 avg)
· Season avg: 8.3 RPG
· Matchup: Indiana ranks 25th in points allowed and lacks interior depth

NBA · Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook

While Westbrook's season average is 6.9, his role has fundamentally shifted with Dennis Schroder suspended and Domantas Sabonis out. He is currently the Kings' only high-level playmaker, evidenced by his 10-assist performance in his very last outing.

OVER 7.5 Assists-108

· Assist %: 34.2%
· L1 game assists: 10
· Kings missing: Schroder (Suspended) and Sabonis (OUT)

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland

While the Cavs are expected to score in bunches, Darius Garland is the most likely candidate for a scoring "under" in this environment. His season average (17.7) is already below this 18.5 line, and the massive blowout risk (-13.5 spread) means he is the starter most likely to see his minutes capped in the second half.

UNDER 18.5 Points-114

· Season avg: 17.7 PPG
· Line: 18.5 (above season average)
· Spread: Cleveland -13.5

NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors

Immanuel Quickley

The line of 4.5 is inflated based on his season average, ignoring his recent trend of 3.2 boards over the last five games. My specific edge is the presence of Collin Murray-Boyles and Scottie Barnes, who are currently vacuuming up all available rebounds for Toronto, leaving very little for the guards.

UNDER 4.5 Rebounds-160

· L5 Rebounding Avg: 3.2 RPG
· Season Avg: 4.2 RPG
· Line: 4.5 Rebounds

NFL · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Nico Collins

Nico Collins enters this Wild Card matchup as C.J. Stroud's primary target, especially with Tank Dell confirmed OUT. Collins recorded 7 total touchdowns in 15 games (0.47 per game) during the 2025 season, including 6 receiving and 1 rushing score. His high volume of 120 targets indicates he is the focal point of the passing attack in high-leverage situations.

OVER 0.5 Anytime Td+155

NFL · vs Houston Texans

Jaylen Warren

Odds value: +230 for a player with a 0.50 TD/game rate is an oversight by the market. Warren scored 8 touchdowns in 16 games (6 rushing, 2 receiving), providing dual-threat utility that is critical in low-scoring 'grind' games (38.5 O/U). With Aaron Rodgers under center and the weather likely a factor in Pittsburgh, Warren's ability to catch passes out of the backfield (40 catches) and run with a 4.5 YPC average makes him a prime candidate to find the end zone.

OVER 0.5 Anytime Td+230

NFL · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Woody Marks

Opening drive equity: Houston is expected to lean on the run early to settle into a cold-weather road environment. With Joe Mixon and Jawhar Jordan both OUT, Woody Marks is the definitive lead back for the Texans. RB1s historically account for 28% of all first touchdowns, the highest of any position.

OVER 0.5 First Td+700