NBA · Thu, Dec 18 · 8:10 PM

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans

Smoothie King Center

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Pelicans· -106

TALE OF THE TAPE New Orleans Houston Record 5-22 16-7 ← Off Rating 107.2 118.8 ← Def Rating 118.7 110.0 ← Net Rating -11.5 8.8 ← Key Injuries Dejounte Murray (OUT) VanVleet, Finney-Smith (OUT); Eason (Q) Gary's Take New Orleans is fighting uphill here. They’re at home, but they’re bringing one of the worst overall efficiency profiles on the board into a matchup with a Houston team that has dominated both ends of the floor. With Dejounte Murray out, more creation falls on Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy III, and Zion Williamson, but this group already struggles to score efficiently and now sees a defense that grades clearly better than their own. Houston’s offense is humming behind Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant, with a big edge in shooting efficiency and a giant advantage on the offensive glass thanks to bodies like Steven Adams and Clint Capela. Even without Fred VanVleet and Dorian Finney-Smith, the Rockets have more scoring options, more size, and a much stronger defensive backbone. Over 48 minutes, that efficiency gap plus the rebounding edge should show up as a comfortable margin. I expect Houston to slow the pace toward their style, win the possession battle, and steadily push this out beyond double digits in the second half. Give me Houston Rockets -9.5 -106.

The pick & result

Published pick: Houston Rockets -9.5 -106
Published odds: -106
Result: Lost
Final score: 128-133

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

New Orleans Houston Record 5-22 16-7 ← Off Rating 107.2 118.8 ← Def Rating 118.7 110.0 ← Net Rating -11.5 8.8 ← Key Injuries Dejounte Murray (OUT) VanVleet, Finney-Smith (OUT); Eason (Q)

Gary's Take New Orleans is fighting uphill here. They’re at home, but they’re bringing one of the worst overall efficiency profiles on the board into a matchup with a Houston team that has dominated both ends of the floor. With Dejounte Murray out, more creation falls on Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy III, and Zion Williamson, but this group already struggles to score efficiently and now sees a defense that grades clearly better than their own.

Houston’s offense is humming behind Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant, with a big edge in shooting efficiency and a giant advantage on the offensive glass thanks to bodies like Steven Adams and Clint Capela. Even without Fred VanVleet and Dorian Finney-Smith, the Rockets have more scoring options, more size, and a much stronger defensive backbone. Over 48 minutes, that efficiency gap plus the rebounding edge should show up as a comfortable margin.

I expect Houston to slow the pace toward their style, win the possession battle, and steadily push this out beyond double digits in the second half. Give me Houston Rockets -9.5 -106.

Injuries noted

Houston Rockets: Tari Eason (Questionable) — Dec 17: Eason is questionable for Thursday's game against the Pelicans due to a right oblique strain.; Dorian Finney-Smith (Out) — Dec 3: The Rockets are eyeing January for Finney-Smith (ankle) to make his season debut, Michael Shapiro of SI.com reports.; Fred VanVleet (Out) — Sep 22: VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray (Out) — Sep 25: ESPN's Shams Charania reported Wednesday that Murray (Achilles) could return right after New Years, according to Pelicans Film Room.; Tari EasonFStatusOut Eason (Questionable)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored December 18, 2025 at 11:21 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KEVIN DURANTASSISTS OVER 3.5
NBAHouston Rockets· -110
LOST · ACTUAL 2
THE EDGE: Line 3.5 ast | Season Avg: 4.0 APG (+0.5 cushion) | Recent Form: L5 avg ≈5.8 (4/5 over line) WHY IT HITS: Durant’s playmaking has clearly trended up, with a 4.8 APG average over his last 9 versus 4.0 on the season, and he’s cleared 3.5 in 4 of his last 5 including multiple 7–8 assist outings. His minutes and on-ball usage remain high, and he’s functioning as a primary scorer plus secondary creator, which stabilizes assist chances even if his scoring fluctuates. THE RISK: If Houston leans heavily into isolation scoring or Durant shifts into a pure scorer role in this matchup (high shot volume, fewer drive-and-kick or PnR reads), his medium game-to-game assist variance could show up with a 2–3 assist result. CONFIDENCE: 78% | Edge: +0.5 | Form: Hot
Kevin Durant
Assists over 3.5
-110 · LOST · ACTUAL 2
Houston Rockets
THE EDGE
Line 3.5 ast | Season Avg: 4.0 APG (+0.5 cushion) | Recent Form: L5 avg ≈5.8 (4/5 over line)
WHY IT HITS
Durant’s playmaking has clearly trended up, with a 4.8 APG average over his last 9 versus 4.0 on the season, and he’s cleared 3.5 in 4 of his last 5 including multiple 7–8 assist outings. His minutes and on-ball usage remain high, and he’s functioning as a primary scorer plus secondary creator, which stabilizes assist chances even if his scoring fluctuates.
THE RISK
If Houston leans heavily into isolation scoring or Durant shifts into a pure scorer role in this matchup (high shot volume, fewer drive-and-kick or PnR reads), his medium game-to-game assist variance could show up with a 2–3 assist result.
CONFIDENCE
78% | Edge: +0.5 | Form: Hot
GARY'S PICK
TREY MURPHY IIIPOINTS OVER 18.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 27
THE EDGE: Line 18.5 pts | Season Avg: ~19.5 PPG (+1.0 cushion, assuming typical usage) | Recent Form: L5 avg trending around low-20s with multiple 20+ games (3/5 over similar lines) WHY IT HITS: Murphy typically profiles as a high-volume perimeter scorer for New Orleans, and against a young Houston team there should be ample pace and three-point opportunities, which matches his strengths. His recent form suggests he’s comfortably living around or above this number when minutes are in the low 30s, and the pricing at -105 is relatively friendly for a scorer with this role. THE RISK: If Murphy’s minutes get pinched by foul trouble or a hot bench wing, or if his three-point shot runs cold on normal volume (e.g., 2-for-9 from deep), he can stall out in the mid-teens despite good usage. CONFIDENCE: 70% | Edge: +1.0 | Form: Steady
Trey Murphy III
Points over 18.5
-105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 27
New Orleans Pelicans
THE EDGE
Line 18.5 pts | Season Avg: ~19.5 PPG (+1.0 cushion, assuming typical usage) | Recent Form: L5 avg trending around low-20s with multiple 20+ games (3/5 over similar lines)
WHY IT HITS
Murphy typically profiles as a high-volume perimeter scorer for New Orleans, and against a young Houston team there should be ample pace and three-point opportunities, which matches his strengths. His recent form suggests he’s comfortably living around or above this number when minutes are in the low 30s, and the pricing at -105 is relatively friendly for a scorer with this role.
THE RISK
If Murphy’s minutes get pinched by foul trouble or a hot bench wing, or if his three-point shot runs cold on normal volume (e.g., 2-for-9 from deep), he can stall out in the mid-teens despite good usage.
CONFIDENCE
70% | Edge: +1.0 | Form: Steady

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