NBA · Fri, Dec 5 · 7:40 PM

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Hornets· -106

TALE OF THE TAPE Toronto Raptors Charlotte Hornets Record 15-8 ← 5-17 Off Rating 116.0 ← 111.0 Def Rating 113.2 ← 121.8 Net Rating +2.8 ← -10.9 Key Injuries RJ Barrett (OUT), Kalkbrenner (Q) Cam Thomas (OUT), Highsmith (OUT) Gary's Take I love this spot for Toronto tonight. The Raptors have been strong at home (8-3) while Charlotte has struggled overall (5-17 with just 4-7 on the road). The efficiency gap is massive: Toronto owns clear edges in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating (a double-digit advantage per 100 possessions), and they shoot more efficiently with a better effective field goal mark. Brandon Ingram is the key to this whole game, driving Toronto’s offense with a strong efficiency/usage combo (offensive rating 116.4 with 27.2 usage), while Immanuel Quickley adds another efficient creator (offensive rating 115.4, defensive rating 111.3). Jakob Poeltl stabilizes the interior defense (team defensive rating 113.2), and even without RJ Barrett (listed out), Toronto has been closing games better (3-1 in clutch spots vs Charlotte’s 0-1). Charlotte’s recent highs, like the 125-107 win over Brooklyn, are the exception, not the rule for a team with a deeply negative net rating. Unless Charlotte catches absolute fire again, Toronto’s efficiency edge and home form should show over 48 minutes. Lock this in: Raptors -7.5 -106.

The pick & result

Published pick: Toronto Raptors -7.5 -106
Published odds: -106
Result: Lost
Final score: 111-86

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

Toronto Raptors Charlotte Hornets Record 15-8 ← 5-17 Off Rating 116.0 ← 111.0 Def Rating 113.2 ← 121.8 Net Rating +2.8 ← -10.9 Key Injuries RJ Barrett (OUT), Kalkbrenner (Q) Cam Thomas (OUT), Highsmith (OUT)

Gary's Take I love this spot for Toronto tonight. The Raptors have been strong at home (8-3) while Charlotte has struggled overall (5-17 with just 4-7 on the road). The efficiency gap is massive: Toronto owns clear edges in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating (a double-digit advantage per 100 possessions), and they shoot more efficiently with a better effective field goal mark.

Brandon Ingram is the key to this whole game, driving Toronto’s offense with a strong efficiency/usage combo (offensive rating 116.4 with 27.2 usage), while Immanuel Quickley adds another efficient creator (offensive rating 115.4, defensive rating 111.3). Jakob Poeltl stabilizes the interior defense (team defensive rating 113.2), and even without RJ Barrett (listed out), Toronto has been closing games better (3-1 in clutch spots vs Charlotte’s 0-1). Charlotte’s recent highs, like the 125-107 win over Brooklyn, are the exception, not the rule for a team with a deeply negative net rating.

Unless Charlotte catches absolute fire again, Toronto’s efficiency edge and home form should show over 48 minutes. Lock this in: Raptors -7.5 -106.

Injuries noted

Charlotte Hornets: Michael Porter Jr. (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Porter (back) won't play Thursday against the Jazz, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Drake Powell (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Powell (knee) is out for Thursday's game against the Jazz, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Cam Thomas (Out) — Nov 7: Thomas has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and he will be re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks, Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com reports.; Haywood Highsmith (Out) — Oct 19: Highsmith (knee) experienced swelling during rehab and will re-evaluated in eight weeks, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

Toronto Raptors: Ochai Agbaji (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Agbaji (personal reasons) will not play Thursday against the Lakers.; Jakob Poeltl (Day-To-Day) — Dec 5: Poeltl (rest) will sit out Thursday's game against the Lakers, Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca reports.; RJ Barrett (Out) — Nov 26: The Raptors announced Wednesday that an MRI on Barrett's right knee revealed no structural damage, Esfandiar Baraheni of The Athletic reports. He has been diagnosed with a sprain and will be re-evaluated in seven days before the team updates his status.; day Kalkbrenner (Questionable); Dealing with ankle contusion Kalkbrenner (Questionable)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored December 5, 2025 at 12:48 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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