Brewers at Rays

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  DREW RASMUSSENPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5

  MLBTampa Bay Rays· -171

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm on Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks at -171. Rasmussen throws strikes. He issued 37 walks across 34 starts this year, a little over one per outing, and he has walked three total over his last three starts. One of those was the seven-inning, one-walk night in Cleveland that put the Rays one win from this Series. The bigger factor tonight is length. He's starting on three days' rest after throwing 89 pitches Saturday, and nobody has put a number on his workload. The board has his outs line at 12.5, so the market expects about four innings. Fewer batters faced means fewer chances to hand out a second free pass. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate, and his games have run a touch below league walk levels this season. The case against is this Brewers lineup, which grinds at bats. Bauers and Turang have both walked over 100 times counting the playoffs. Yelich drew two walks last night. Milwaukee got two free passes off Rasmussen in Game 2, to Bauers and Pratt, in only 3.2 innings. Short rest can show up as shaky command before it shows up in velocity. And with the Rays using seven pitchers last night, Cash may ask Rasmussen to push deeper than he'd like. Even so, at this price I'll trust a strike thrower on what should be a short night.

  ×

  Drew Rasmussen
  Pitcher Walks under 1.5

  -171 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Tampa Bay Rays

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm on Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks at -171.

  Rasmussen throws strikes. He issued 37 walks across 34 starts this year, a little over one per outing, and he has walked three total over his last three starts. One of those was the seven-inning, one-walk night in Cleveland that put the Rays one win from this Series.

  The bigger factor tonight is length. He's starting on three days' rest after throwing 89 pitches Saturday, and nobody has put a number on his workload. The board has his outs line at 12.5, so the market expects about four innings. Fewer batters faced means fewer chances to hand out a second free pass. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate, and his games have run a touch below league walk levels this season.

  The case against is this Brewers lineup, which grinds at bats. Bauers and Turang have both walked over 100 times counting the playoffs. Yelich drew two walks last night. Milwaukee got two free passes off Rasmussen in Game 2, to Bauers and Pratt, in only 3.2 innings. Short rest can show up as shaky command before it shows up in velocity. And with the Rays using seven pitchers last night, Cash may ask Rasmussen to push deeper than he'd like.

  Even so, at this price I'll trust a strike thrower on what should be a short night.

• GARY'S PICK

  JONATHAN ARANDAH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBTampa Bay Rays· -179

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm on Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -179. He bats second tonight against a right-hander, which is the side where he did nearly all his damage this year: an .837 OPS and 19 of his 22 homers. He has also already seen this arm in this Series. In Game 1 he singled off Jacob Misiorowski in the first, walked off him in the fourth and went 3 for 3 on the night. He scored the Rays' first run. The swing is still there through the cold stretch. Last night he hit a 101.8 mph liner that Brice Turang turned into a double play. That was a hard ball that found a glove. The Game 1 reporting on Misiorowski said his spin was down and Rays hitters kept fouling pitches off to extend counts. Batting second gets Aranda four or more trips most nights, and one hit, one run or one RBI cashes this. The case against is real. He's 0 for 7 over the last two games and 3 for 17 over the past week. Misiorowski has been brutal on left-handed hitters all season. Caminero, one of the bats behind Aranda, is playing on a sore foot, which trims Aranda's chances to score if he does reach. The price is steep, but I'll back what Aranda has already done against this pitcher on this stage.

  ×

  Jonathan Aranda
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -179 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Tampa Bay Rays

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm on Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -179.

  He bats second tonight against a right-hander, which is the side where he did nearly all his damage this year: an .837 OPS and 19 of his 22 homers. He has also already seen this arm in this Series. In Game 1 he singled off Jacob Misiorowski in the first, walked off him in the fourth and went 3 for 3 on the night. He scored the Rays' first run.

  The swing is still there through the cold stretch. Last night he hit a 101.8 mph liner that Brice Turang turned into a double play. That was a hard ball that found a glove. The Game 1 reporting on Misiorowski said his spin was down and Rays hitters kept fouling pitches off to extend counts. Batting second gets Aranda four or more trips most nights, and one hit, one run or one RBI cashes this.

  The case against is real. He's 0 for 7 over the last two games and 3 for 17 over the past week. Misiorowski has been brutal on left-handed hitters all season. Caminero, one of the bats behind Aranda, is playing on a sore foot, which trims Aranda's chances to score if he does reach. The price is steep, but I'll back what Aranda has already done against this pitcher on this stage.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.