The stored Gary board for Mon, Jun 22. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Austria's elite form and 1.63 xG/match generation make them a formidable opponent, while Argentina's injury-shuffled fullbacks will lead to a more conservative defensive approach. With Argentina's attack overperforming their underlying 1.47 xG/match, the market is overpaying for a fragile finishing rate, making the 1.5-goal cushion on a disciplined Austrian side highly valuable.
With both teams holding massive tournament incentives to secure a draw and virtually guarantee advancement, neither side will take unnecessary risks. Missing primary playmaker Christoph Baumgartner hampers Austria's scoring ceiling, and Argentina's elite 0.30 xGA defense will keep this a low-risk, possession-heavy battle of attrition under the 2.5-goal line.
Welcome to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, where a Group I showdown between tournament heavyweights France and a desperate Iraq side is set to kick off under the threat of severe local thunderstorms. On paper, France is expected to control the pitch, but a closer look at the environmental factors and tournament math reveals an incredibly valuable spot to back a heavily underpriced Draw at 1000. The primary driver for this pick is the intersection of severe weather and Iraq's defensive desperation. Philadelphia is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which threatens to bring heavy rain, high winds, and lightning delays that will disrupt the game's flow and make technical play difficult. Iraq, currently sitting at the bottom of Group I with a -3 goal difference, must avoid another blowout at all costs to remain alive for a best third-place spot. They are highly likely to employ an ultra-defensive low block to park the bus. France is resting key starters and missing their primary midfield anchor Aurélien Tchouaméni, which could lead to a lack of cohesion and clinical execution in the final third. The strongest argument against backing a Draw is France's elite talent pool, including Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, who can manufacture goals out of nothing. However, breaking down a packed, determined Iraqi defense on a storm-slicked pitch is a massive equalizer. At +1000, the market is offering an extraordinary price on a scenario where weather, squad rotation, and tactical desperation combine to produce a frustrated, low-scoring stalemate.
Welcome to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, where a Group I showdown between tournament heavyweights France and a desperate Iraq side is set to kick off under the threat of severe local thunderstorms. While France represents a high-powered offense, the structural conditions of this match point directly toward a low-scoring affair, making the Under 3.5 at 100 the premier play. The load-bearing reason to back the Under 3.5 goals is Iraq's offensive impotence combined with their need to protect their goal difference. Iraq averages a meager 0.8 xG per match and has only 1.5 shots on target over their recent fixtures. With primary forward Mohanad Ali ruled out, they lack any credible transition threat. Consequently, Iraq will commit fully to a deep defensive setup, focusing entirely on damage control to avoid another blowout. France, meanwhile, is expected to rotate their squad and is missing midfield anchor Aurélien Tchouaméni, which will slow down their build-up play. The main counterargument is that France has scored 2.6 goals per match over their last 10 and could easily run up the score if they break through early. However, the severe weather watch in Philadelphia threatens heavy rain and lightning delays, which will slick the pitch and slow down play. France's rotated squad will likely struggle to find its fluid passing rhythm in these conditions. This combination of weather, squad rotation, and Iraq's complete lack of attacking ambition makes a high-scoring game highly unlikely, giving the Under 3.5 exceptional value.
The lights are on at Comerica Park as the division-leading New York Yankees roll into Detroit to kick off a three-game series against a hungry Tigers squad. At a modest price of -124, the Yankees look to snap their two-game skid behind their ace, Gerrit Cole, who faces off against Detroit's left-handed veteran Framber Valdez. The decisive edge in this game belongs to Gerrit Cole and the catastrophic matchup he presents for the Detroit offense. The Tigers are starting six left-handed hitters tonight, directly feeding into Cole's greatest statistical strength; he has completely neutralized lefties this season, holding them to a microscopic .183 batting average and a .599 OPS. On the flip side, Framber Valdez represents a fragile price on the mound. His 4.09 ERA is masking a concerning 4.47 xERA and a heavy 42.3% Hard-hit rate, which is a massive liability against a patient Yankees order. Paul Goldschmidt, who is carrying a stellar 1.218 OPS against left-handed pitchers, is uniquely positioned to punish Valdez’s sinker-heavy approach, while Cody Bellinger's robust .865 OPS against lefties ensures the Yankees' offense remains highly productive despite missing their primary power bats. The strongest counter-argument to backing New York is their fatigued bullpen and the 13 mph wind blowing out to right field, which could threaten Cole's fly-ball profile. However, Cole's elite 31% Hard-hit rate suggests that even with the wind, the contact he allows is rarely barreled, and his deep outfield security blanket in Cody Bellinger (16 DRS) will help track down anything in the gaps. While Detroit has a fresher bullpen with Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen waiting, they cannot leverage those arms if Cole and the Yankees' offense build an early lead. At this price, the pitching mismatch is too pronounced to ignore, making the Yankees the clear and value-driven play to get back in the win column.
Under the lights of the Tropicana Field dome, a high-stakes series gets underway tonight as the Tampa Bay Rays host a depleted Kansas City Royals team looking to survive without their superstar anchor. This matchup completely hinges on Drew Rasmussen’s absolute dominance against right-handed hitters and Michael Wacha's severe road vulnerabilities. Rasmussen is holding righties to a ridiculous .125 batting average and .350 OPS this season. With Bobby Witt Jr. sidelined with a knee sprain, the Royals are forced to send out a heavily right-handed lineup featuring Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. This leaves the Royals’ offense highly exposed to Rasmussen, who has yielded just a single run over his last 21 innings and comes in with an elite 0.88 WHIP. On the other side, Michael Wacha is prime for a reality check on the road. The market is pricing him on a solid 3.64 ERA, but his 4.15 xERA reveals a fragile underbelly. Wacha's road splits are troubling, ballooning to a 4.44 ERA in 46.2 innings away from home. He matches up poorly against a disciplined Rays offense that leads the AL with a .334 team OBP and features Yandy Diaz, who bats .364 at home and is a career .400 hitter against Wacha. Combine Wacha's contact-reliant style (6.9 K/9) with the Rays' stellar infield positioning—which leads the league with +26 positioning runs—and Tampa Bay holds a massive defensive and pitching advantage. Of course, the strongest argument against laying this juice on Tampa Bay is that Wacha has historically performed well against the Rays, logging quality starts in four consecutive matchups. However, those past matchups don’t account for the massive current talent disparity, nor the fact that the Royals' pitching staff has compiled a brutal 5.73 ERA when young catcher Carter Jensen is behind the plate. While the Rays' bullpen has some minor fatigue, their high-leverage arms like Bryan Baker (1.78 ERA) offer a much safer floor than Kansas City's volatile relief unit. Expect Rasmussen to dictate the pace and secure a comfortable home victory for the Rays.
Under the glowing roof of loanDepot park, the surging Miami Marlins look to defend their turf against a hungry Texas Rangers squad seeking a spark. While the home team brings all the recent momentum, the value lies with the visitors tonight. The market is heavily favoring the Marlins due to their impressive home win streak and 14-4 run in June, creating an overpriced line that fails to account for the sudden loss of Liam Hicks, who went on the injured list yesterday with a back strain. Hicks' team-leading 13 home runs and 53 RBIs represent a massive offensive void that the Marlins' lineup cannot easily replace. Furthermore, Miami starting pitcher Tyler Phillips is a prime regression candidate whose 3.10 ERA is highly fragile, masked by a much less impressive 4.21 xERA and a recent blowup start where he yielded eight earned runs. Texas manager Skip Schumaker returns to Miami with intimate knowledge of the Marlins' roster, and he is deploying a clever "Tandem" pitching strategy to exploit it. Left-handed opener Tyler Alexander (2.97 ERA) will handle the top of the lineup, shielding bulk follower Kumar Rocker from his first-inning struggles, where he has posted an 11.25 ERA. Rocker has already demonstrated great success in this exact follower role earlier this season, tossing 7.2 shutout innings on May 19. Offensively, the Rangers are well-positioned to attack Phillips’ platoon vulnerabilities with their left-handed bats, while veteran catcher Elias Diaz brings a reverse-split .450 average against righties and an elite 44.4% caught-stealing rate to shut down Miami’s aggressive baserunners on the path. The strongest case for Miami lies in their stellar bullpen and Otto Lopez, who is hitting .332 and crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .458 average. Lopez will certainly challenge Alexander early, and if the Marlins can knock out the opener and force the Rangers into middle relief, they can control the game. However, the Rangers' offensive power potential through Jake Burger—who is 2-for-2 against Phillips and crushes sinkers—alongside the tactical edge of the Alexander-Rocker tandem, makes Texas the superior choice. At +110, the market is overpaying for Miami's fragile surface numbers, making the Rangers the smart, value-driven play to win outright.
The scenery is set at Nationals Park as the Philadelphia Phillies travel south to take on the Washington Nationals in a pivotal NL East division showdown under overcast, 83-degree skies. The market has installed Washington as a home favorite tonight largely due to the starting pitcher matchup on paper, but this represents a spot where the line is overpaying for a fragile surface-level number. Foster Griffin’s 7-2 record and 3.32 ERA look stellar, but his 4.35 xERA reveals significant underlying vulnerability. Griffin surrenders a dangerous 11% Barrel rate, which is highly problematic tonight with a 10 mph wind blowing directly out to Right Field. This is a nightmare environment for a fly-ball pitcher, particularly when facing left-handed power like Kyle Schwarber—who boasts an elite 1.036 OPS against southpaws—and right-handed bats like Trea Turner and Alec Bohm who can exploit Griffin’s weakness against righties (a .739 OPS and 12 of his 15 home runs allowed). The Phillies are also clicking under interim manager Don Mattingly, putting up a 33-16 record since he took over and coming off a sweep of the Mets where they outscored them 21-5. While Philadelphia is utilizing reliever Tim Mayza as an opener in a bullpen game, Mayza’s metrics are incredibly clean, featuring a 2.97 ERA, a 3.09 xERA, and an elite 5.6% Barrel rate allowed. The main argument against Philadelphia is the risk of bullpen fatigue, as closer Jhoan Duran has worked consecutive days, and the Nationals’ offense has been hot, producing a .420 xwOBA and 5.3 runs per game. However, the Phillies’ defense and basepaths management will severely limit Washington's opportunities. Philadelphia has committed only 36 errors (.987 FPCT) compared to Washington’s sloppy 63 errors (.978 FPCT). Furthermore, the catching mismatch completely neutralizes Washington's high-speed offense. Phillies catcher Rafael Marchan is a defensive wall, holding an elite 57% caught-stealing rate (8 caught stealings against 6 stolen bases), whereas Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz is incredibly vulnerable, allowing 32 stolen bases while catching only 10 (a 23.8% rate) and committing 3 passed balls. Trea Turner and Bryson Stott should run at will to manufacture runs, while Marchan shuts down Washington’s speed on the other side. With the Nationals carrying a poor 16-22 record at Nationals Park compared to a 24-16 road mark, backing the hotter, more defensively sound Phillies at plus money is the smart play.
The roof is closed at Rogers Centre as the AL Wild Card race heats up in a high-stakes series opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the visiting Houston Astros. Dylan Cease gives Toronto a highly reliable advantage on the mound in this high-velocity showdown. Cease has been an absolute workhorse this season, racking up 110 strikeouts over 73.0 innings with a stellar 2.71 ERA and a highly sustainable 3.04 xERA. What makes Cease especially lethal tonight is his elite platoon split against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .208 batting average and a .542 OPS. This aligns perfectly against an Astros lineup that features six right-handed bats in their starting nine. While Hunter Brown has been flashy with a 1.10 ERA through his first 16.1 innings since returning from the IL, his 2.18 xERA suggests some regression is lurking, and his fly-ball profile (0.77 GO/AO) is a dangerous recipe against Blue Jays sluggers like Kazuma Okamoto, who slugged .600 against 4-seam fastballs. The late innings highlight the absolute widest gap in this matchup. Toronto rolls out one of the most lockdown back-ends in baseball, featuring Tyler Rogers (1.77 ERA) and an untouchable closer in Louis Varland (0.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 15 saves), both of whom are rested and fully available. Conversely, Houston's bullpen is entering this high-pressure opener highly compromised. Elite closer Josh Hader is sidelined with biceps tendinitis, forcing the Astros to lean on a heavily taxed Bryan King and the highly erratic Bryan Abreu, who has struggled to a 6.39 ERA and a bloated 1.82 WHIP. If this game is tied or close in the seventh inning, Toronto’s late-inning options give them a clear, decisive path to lock down the victory. The counter-argument to the Blue Jays is Houston's pure star power, specifically the terrifying bat of Yordan Alvarez (.322 AVG, 25 HR, 1.113 OPS vs. RHP), and the Astros' superior defense (.989 fielding percentage compared to Toronto's error-prone .983). Alvarez has the rare ability to destroy any right-handed pitcher on earth with a single swing. However, the Blue Jays have the deeper, more disciplined lineup overall, with productive lefties like Nathan Lukes (.336 vs. RHP) and Jesus Sanchez (.830 OPS vs. RHP) ready to drive up Brown's pitch count early. With Toronto playing in front of their home crowd where they are a solid 21-18, the combination of Cease's durability, a major bullpen advantage, and tactical platoon depth makes the Blue Jays the side to back at a very fair home price of -130.
Two of Japan's premier pitching exports clash under the overcast skies of Citi Field tonight as Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs open a crucial four-game set against Kodai Senga and the New York Mets. While the market has priced the Mets as short home underdogs at +106, the reality is they are asking a struggling, short-handed starting pitcher to hold off a surging offense while playing in front of an entirely depleted bullpen. The market is overpaying for Senga's name value and his theoretical positive regression based on his 5.12 xERA compared to his actual 9.00 ERA. However, Senga's current 1.88 WHIP, 17 walks over 24.0 innings, and a complete absence of his legendary splitter have made him a massive liability. He has failed to reach the fifth inning in four of his last five starts, posting a bloated 11.21 ERA in that span, which spells disaster for a Mets bullpen running on fumes after David Peterson threw 79 pitches and Austin Warren threw 37 yesterday. The Cubs' offense is perfectly optimized to exploit Senga's primary weakness. Senga has been completely dismantled by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a massive 1.000 OPS and a .333 batting average. Chicago counterpunches with high-impact lefties like Pete Crow-Armstrong (16 HR, .883 OPS) and switch-hitter Ian Happ, who boasts a strong .891 OPS against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs' patient, disciplined hitters will run up Senga's pitch counts early and force this game into the hands of the tired Mets middle relief. Meanwhile, Shota Imanaga has fully stabilized with a 0.84 ERA over his last two starts. His 1.06 WHIP and 3.65 xERA show his true underlying strength, and his neutral splits (.216 AVG vs RHB, .217 AVG vs LHB) effectively take the sting out of Juan Soto, who drops to an .818 OPS against lefties. The primary argument for the Mets lies in their recent 8-1 win over Atlanta and the potential for right-handed bats like Bo Bichette—who is hitting .381 over his last 10 games—to ride a 14 mph wind blowing out to left field. However, Imanaga's elite command means he rarely permits baserunners to cluster, whereas Senga's extreme fly-ball profile (0.54 GO/AO), high walk rate, and 11.8% barrel rate make him the prime candidate to surrender a wind-aided multi-run home run. Backed by a clean defense that has committed only 31 errors this season compared to the Mets' 44, the fresh-bullpen Cubs have all the logical advantages to secure a road victory.
Under the partly cloudy skies of Cincinnati, the division-leading Brewers roll into Great American Ball Park to open up a crucial ten-game stretch against their NL Central rivals. While the -152 moneyline on the visiting Brewers might feel steep for a team re-integrating their starting pitcher from an injury layoff, the pricing is highly favorable when looking at the matchup. The market is paying for a fragile number in Brady Singer’s 5.32 ERA, especially since his underlying metrics show a 5.79 xERA and a .394 opponent wOBA allowed. Singer is a fly-ball leaning pitcher (0.88 GO/AO) in a park that is already a hitter's haven, and tonight's weather features an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field. This is a catastrophic environment for Singer, who is being decimated by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .324 batting average and a .948 OPS. Milwaukee’s lineup is perfectly optimized to exploit this weakness. They are starting six left-handed batters today, including Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, who will look to elevate Singer’s sinker and let the wind carry it toward GABP's short right-field porch. Furthermore, the Reds are playing tonight without their most dynamic offensive piece in Elly De La Cruz, who remains sidelined on the injured list until tomorrow. The Reds also face a severe mismatch behind the plate. Brewers catcher William Contreras has shut down opposing run games with a stifling 78.9% caught-stealing rate (15 of 19), whereas Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has permitted a high success rate, catching just 12 of 55 runners. This gives high-volume base stealers like Turang a green light to run at will. The strongest argument against backing Milwaukee is the potential rust of Brandon Woodruff in his first Major League appearance since April 30. His fastball velocity in rehab was 92.1 mph, and the Reds are starting seven right-handed batters to target his weaker platoon split (.731 OPS allowed to righties). However, Woodruff’s 3.18 xERA indicates he was throwing with elite control before his injury, and he was stretched out to 82 pitches in his final rehab outing. Even if he is on a pitch count, the Brewers' bullpen is in excellent shape, with high-leverage arms Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe fully rested after not pitching yesterday. Conversely, Cincinnati's bullpen is heavily taxed, and relying on newly activated Pierce Johnson directly off elbow inflammation is a risky proposition. The Brewers hold the clear tactical edge.
The AL Central crown is up for grabs tonight in the Windy City as the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians open a massive three-game series with first place on the line. The White Sox return to Rate Field, where they have been a dominant 24-12 this season, facing a fatigued Guardians team currently playing their seventh consecutive road game. The energy in the home dugout will be off the charts tonight as Chicago welcomes the 2026 season debut of top catcher prospect Kyle Teel, who slots immediately into the cleanup spot after hitting .387 with a 1.000+ OPS in his rehab assignment. Teel’s arrival provides an instant emotional lift and offensive upgrade, helpfully softening the blow of Munetaka Murakami’s absence due to a hamstring injury. The physical environment heavily tilts this matchup in Chicago’s favor, thanks to a 14 mph wind blowing straight out to right field on a clear, 64-degree night. This jet stream is a nightmare scenario for Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (9-4, 3.83 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), who is in the midst of a major home run slump. Over his last three starts, Williams has surrendered 13 earned runs and 6 home runs in just 15.1 innings of work. Williams allows a high 49.1% Hard-hit rate and a 12.8% Barrel rate, making him extremely vulnerable to a White Sox lineup packed with left-handed and switch-hitting pull power, such as Colson Montgomery and Andrew Benintendi, who can launch balls into the right-field breeze. The biggest argument against Chicago is Anthony Kay’s (6-2, 4.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) extreme platoon split, as he has surrendered a .296 average and a massive .879 OPS with 9 home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Cleveland has understandably stacked their lineup with righty bats to exploit this, but they are doing so without superstar third baseman José Ramírez, which severely dampens their overall punch. Furthermore, Kay has shown much better control recently—issuing only 6 walks over his last 5 starts (24.0 innings)—and holds a major individual advantage over Cleveland's dangerous leadoff hitter, Travis Bazzana, who hits a measly .169 with a .527 OPS against left-handed pitchers. With Kay's improved zone command and the wind blowing in the home team's favor, back the White Sox at this short home price.
Target Field is bathed in early evening light as the Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Minneapolis to square off against the surging Minnesota Twins in a compelling interleague clash. While the Twins enter this series hot, the Dodgers present a major matchup nightmare for young Twins starter Zebby Matthews. Matthews relies heavily on a 95.1 mph four-seam fastball that has been vulnerable this year, yielding a .381 xwOBA, which matches up poorly against the Dodgers' elite left-handed hitters. Freddie Freeman (.341 BA against fastballs) and Max Muncy (.694 SLG against fastballs) are primed to exploit this heater, especially since Matthews has struggled with same-side matchups, yielding a .782 OPS to left-handed batters. The strongest counter-argument to the Dodgers is bulk reliever Eric Lauer’s massive reverse platoon split, as he has surrendered a staggering 1.028 OPS to lefties this season. However, the Dodgers' "Opener" strategy utilizing Will Klein is engineered to disrupt the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup early, and the Dodgers' defense provides a massive safety net. Los Angeles is a fundamentally clean unit, boasting an elite .991 fielding percentage with only 25 errors on the year, compared to the Twins' 46 errors. This defensive reliability minimizes free base runners, while a 5 mph wind blowing in from left field will suppress the right-handed pull power of Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, leaving the Dodgers' left-handed pull power to right field unaffected. Finally, the late-inning discrepancy heavily favors the Dodgers' price. Having rested their primary arms during yesterday's blowout, their high-leverage core of Tanner Scott (2.32 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) and Alex Vesia (2.49 ERA) is completely fresh. The Dodgers also officially activated Brock Stewart today, adding immediate depth. In contrast, the Twins' pitching staff sports a 4.79 season ERA and their bullpen is thinned, with high-leverage reliever Yoendrys Gomez heavily taxed. Back the deeper, defensively sound Dodgers to bounce back and secure the win.
We’ve got a critical National League clash tonight at Busch Stadium as the surging St. Louis Cardinals host a heavily depleted Arizona Diamondbacks squad to open a crucial four-game series. The pitching matchup represents a massive contrast in form and execution. St. Louis sends Andre Pallante to the mound, who is 8-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a nearly identical 3.68 xERA, showing he is pitching some of his best baseball of the season. On the other side, Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, whose 5.81 ERA actually masks an incredibly concerning 7.51 xERA, indicating the market is overpaying for a highly fragile performance profile. The biggest tactical edge of this game is the Cardinals' left-handed bats matching up against Kelly’s primary weakness. Kelly has been dismantled by lefties this season, allowing a massive .943 OPS and 10 home runs in 156 at-bats. St. Louis has stacked five left-handed hitters in their starting lineup tonight, including the red-hot rookie JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson, who is slashing .330 with a 1.005 OPS and 12 home runs against righties this season. Furthermore, Pallante's sinker-heavy profile is perfectly optimized for Busch Stadium (0.96 park factor), and he is backed by second baseman JJ Wetherholt, who ranks second in all of MLB with a +12.22 Fielding Run Value, giving him elite infield protection. The strongest argument against the Cardinals is Kelly’s historical success against St. Louis, where he holds a 2.25 career ERA in four starts. However, those historic stats came against past, veteran-heavy lineups; tonight, he faces a young, aggressive St. Louis core that has zero career at-bats against him and enters with high momentum after scoring 12 runs yesterday. When you combine Arizona’s severe roster fatigue—manning a makeshift outfield with Tommy Troy and Tim Tawa due to recent injuries to Jordan Lawlar and Ryne Nelson, and starting defensive downgrade Adrian Del Castillo (four passed balls in 15 games) behind the plate—the Cardinals are in a perfect position to secure a victory. We are backing St. Louis on the moneyline.
The high-altitude stage is set at Coors Field as the Boston Red Sox roll into Denver to kick off a three-game interleague series against the Colorado Rockies in an 88-degree, wind-blowing-out shootout. This matchup presents a massive opportunity to target a starting pitching and bullpen discrepancy that the current market price doesn't fully capture. The starting pitching matchup is the main driver here. While surface ERAs look similar, the expected metrics reveal a huge gap. Jake Bennett has been extremely unlucky, holding a 3.40 xERA and a .289 xwOBA allowed, supported by a 7.6% barrel rate and a 36.4% hard-hit rate. Ryan Feltner, meanwhile, is pitching on borrowed time with a 5.79 xERA, a .367 xwOBA allowed, a 10.6% barrel rate, and a 44.7% hard-hit rate. The market is overpaying for Feltner's fragile surface numbers, while Boston's right-handed bats like Willson Contreras are primed to capitalize. Contreras has been lethal against sinkers, batting .394 with an .818 SLG, which matches up perfectly with Feltner's primary offering, especially in an 88°F environment where high-impact contact easily carries out of the park. Furthermore, the late-inning discrepancy is astronomical. If this game is close in the seventh or eighth, the Red Sox have a massive edge. Boston boasts a fully rested Aroldis Chapman, who has been sensational with a 0.83 ERA, 14 saves, and a 29:9 K/BB ratio in 21.2 innings. Colorado's bullpen is heavily fatigued and must rely on Victor Vodnik, who has struggled to a 7.78 ERA, a 2.08 WHIP, and 15 walks in 19.2 innings. The best counter-argument for Colorado is Feltner's strong reverse splits against lefties (.192 AVG and .633 OPS allowed). However, Boston's elite hard-hit metrics over their last three games (90.4 mph average exit velocity and a 40.3% hard-hit rate compared to Colorado's 84.8 mph and 27.5% hard-hit rate) and their right-handed platoon advantages should allow them to bypass Feltner's strength and out-slug the Rockies in the altitude.
Under the bright lights of MetLife Stadium, a critical Group I battle unfolds as a high-flying Norway side looks to book its ticket to the knockout rounds against a desperate Senegal team fighting for World Cup survival. With both teams at full strength and resting on equal preparation, this matchup promises to reveal who truly belongs in the upper echelon of international football. My read here is simple: the market is not fully pricing in the massive structural disparity between these two sides, making Norway at plus money an exceptional value. Norway is a hyper-efficient machine right now, averaging 1.97 expected goals (xG) per match over their last six fixtures and converting that into a massive 3.4 goals per match over their last ten. Their elite attacking weapons, led by Erling Haaland (2 goals in 2 caps) and Alexander Sørloth (2 goals in 2 caps), require very little room to punish an opponent. On the other hand, Senegal's defense has suffered a severe regression, conceding 1.79 xGA per match over their last six. While Senegal holds 53% possession, they are incredibly vulnerable when they lose the ball, and they simply do not have the transition protection to contain Norway's counter-attacking speed. The best counter-argument to this pick is Senegal's urgent situation and their raw squad talent, with proven match-winners like Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson capable of making something out of nothing. Senegal is in a must-earn-points situation, and they will likely play with an intensity that matches their desperation. However, Senegal's offensive generation has been remarkably poor, averaging just 0.53 xG per match over their last six fixtures. Despite taking 9.75 shots and putting 4.5 on target, they are constantly settling for low-probability, low-danger shots that struggle to break down structured defenses. Norway's solid defensive line, allowing only 0.84 xGA per match over their last six, is exceptionally well-suited to isolate Senegal's attackers and force them into sterile possession. As Senegal is forced to push forward for a result, they will leave massive gaps in behind that Ødegaard and Haaland will ruthlessly expose.
Under the bright lights of MetLife Stadium, a critical Group I battle unfolds as a high-flying Norway side looks to book its ticket to the knockout rounds against a desperate Senegal team fighting for World Cup survival. With both teams possessing world-class individual attacking talent, this match is primed to showcase an open and high-tempo affair. My play here is on the Over, as the market is offering a very reasonable price of -110 on a line of 2.5 goals that does not reflect the defensive vulnerabilities and finishing quality present on the pitch. Norway’s attack has been absolutely lethal, finding the back of the net four times in their opening match against Iraq and averaging 3.4 goals per match over their last ten internationals. Their high-quality chance creation (1.97 xG per match) matches up perfectly against a Senegal backline that is leaking opportunities, allowing 1.79 xGA per match over their last six games. With Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth in clinical form, Norway has the potential to threaten this total single-handedly against an expansive Senegal team. The primary concern for an Under bettor is Senegal's incredibly low xG generation, which sits at a mere 0.53 per match over their last six. It is easy to look at that number and assume Senegal will struggle to contribute to the scoreline, especially against a disciplined Norway defense allowing just 0.84 xGA per match. However, Senegal’s low xG is somewhat misleading given their volume; they still take 9.75 shots and put 4.5 on target per game, and they possess world-class individual finishers like Sadio Mané (2 goals in 2 caps) and Nicolas Jackson who can capitalize on a single defensive lapse. Furthermore, Senegal is in survival mode and has no choice but to push the tempo and take risks, which will naturally stretch the game and lead to high-turnover transitions. Combined with Senegal's high average of 6.5 corners per match to create set-piece chaos, we should see plenty of high-danger moments in both boxes, easily pushing this match past the 2.5-goal threshold.
We've got a warm, clear night under the big A as the high-powered Baltimore Orioles begin a three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. While the price tag of -162 on a road team under .500 might raise some eyebrows, the starting pitching mismatch and the environmental conditions make the Orioles the clear play tonight. Sam Aldegheri is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a GO/AO of 0.39, and facing a lineup with power threats like Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso (18 HR) in a park with an 8 mph wind blowing out to center field is a recipe for a blowout. Aldegheri's struggles are compounded by his extreme platoon vulnerability, having yielded a massive 1.196 OPS and .391 AVG against left-handed hitters, which sets up perfectly for a huge night from Henderson at the top of the order. The biggest argument against Baltimore is the absence of their star catcher Adley Rutschman, who was recently placed on the concussion IL, forcing backup Sam Huff into action. Huff's defensive drop-off is a real concern against an aggressive Angels team that might try to test him on the basepaths. Additionally, Orioles starter Kyle Bradish (4-7, 4.00 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) has a reverse platoon split, yielding a .300 average and .853 OPS to right-handed hitters, which aligns with the Angels' righty-heavy core. However, Bradish's elite swing-and-miss stuff—coming off a dominant 12-strikeout performance—gives him a much higher ceiling than Aldegheri. Moreover, Bradish's ground-ball profile (1.47 GO/AO) is exactly what is needed to neutralize the wind blowing out to center field. If this game comes down to the later frames, the gap in bullpen depth becomes a chasm. The Orioles feature a shutdown setup arm in Rico Garcia, who boasts a minuscule 1.72 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, and is fully rested after throwing just 11 pitches yesterday. Conversely, the Angels' bullpen is heavily fatigued with Kirby Yates and Sam Bachman working back-to-back days, and they are anchored by Jordan Romano, who has struggled to a disastrous 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP over 8.0 innings. Baltimore's bats, fresh off a 12-1 demolition of the Dodgers, are primed to chase Aldegheri early and expose a fragile, worn-out Angels relief core. Back the Orioles' superior talent and pitching depth to roll in the series opener.
Under the bright national lights of ESPN at Petco Park, the high-powered Atlanta Braves clash with the San Diego Padres in a crucial series opener that features two clubs desperate to shake off their June slumps. While the Padres send Michael King to the hill, the market appears to be significantly overpaying for King's 3.60 season ERA, which is highly fragile. His expected ERA sits at a much higher 4.79, and his actual performance has cratered over his last five starts, resulting in a 6.41 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a massive drop in swing-and-miss stuff down to a 4.73 K/9. Atlanta’s left-handed hitters are uniquely structured to break this matchup wide open, particularly against King’s primary pitch mix. King's sinker-changeup combination faces a brutal challenge against the heart of the Braves' order. Left-handed slugger Matt Olson, sporting an .892 OPS and 20 home runs against righties, along with breakout catcher Drake Baldwin, who carries an .828 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, both possess expected slugging percentages over .640 against sinkers. Additionally, Michael Harris II is statistically primed to torment King's primary offspeed offering, having posted a stellar .371 batting average and a .629 slugging percentage against changeups this season. While the Padres' pitcher-friendly home park and Rodolfo Duran's elite 75% caught-stealing rate provide San Diego with strong defensive support, their depleted lineup—starting the light-hitting Duran and his .135 average—lacks the punch to match Atlanta's offensive depth. The decisive edge in this matchup comes down to the late innings. If Atlanta starter Grant Holmes struggles to find length after walking five batters over his last 5.2 innings, the Braves can hand the game over to a dominant, fully rested bullpen. Lock-down setup man Robert Suarez (0.56 ERA) and closer Raisel Iglesias (1.48 ERA) have not thrown a pitch since June 19 and are at maximum strength to secure the final frames. Conversely, the Padres' bridge to closer Mason Miller is heavily taxed, as high-leverage arm Jason Adam has thrown 39 pitches over the last three days. With a superior matchup against King's pitch-mix and a massive bullpen rest advantage, the Braves represent tremendous value to take this opener on the road at an even-money price.
With tournament survival on the line in Santa Clara, Jordan and Algeria head to Levi's Stadium for a high-stakes Group J clash that neither side can afford to drop. The market is overpaying for Algeria's historical pedigree here, establishing them as heavy favorites and pricing their -1.5 spread at a steep -150 odds. That price completely ignores the profound attacking stagnation Algeria has experienced recently, averaging a tiny 0.3 xG and managing a mere 0.5 shots on target per match over their last six games. While they remain the superior squad on paper, they simply lack the offensive volume and cohesion at this moment to comfortably justify laying a multiple-goal margin. Supporting this read is the tactical shift Jordan is forced to make. With key forward threats Ibrahim Sabra and Yazan Al-Naimat sidelined with recent injuries, Jordan will likely abandon any high-pressing ambitions and set up in a rigid, low-block defensive shell to protect their fragile backline. While Jordan has shown they can generate shots under normal circumstances, their personnel shortages mean they will prioritize defensive damage control and look to slow the game down. Algeria will dominate possession, but breaking down a packed defense has been a massive challenge for them during their recent offensive slump. The strongest counter-argument to this play is Jordan's defensive weakness, having conceded 1.7 goals per match over their last 10 internationals and giving up three goals in their opener against Austria. However, with Algeria's toothless attack struggling to put more than half a shot on target per match recently, they are highly unlikely to execute a high-scoring blowout. Backing Jordan with a 1.5-goal cushion provides immense security, cashing on a Jordan win, a draw, or a tight, one-goal Algeria victory.
Defensive caution and depleted front lines look set to take center stage in Santa Clara as Jordan and Algeria square off in a high-stakes, direct-elimination Group J battle. This matchup is a textbook Under scenario, primarily driven by a dramatic decline in offensive efficiency for Algeria and severe injury blows to Jordan’s attacking unit. Algeria's recent attacking metrics are historically low for a favorite, as they have averaged just 0.3 xG, 6.0 shots, and a stunningly low 0.5 shots on target per match over their last six fixtures. Breaking down any defensive structure has become a slow, labor-intensive process for this squad. Jordan’s attacking teeth have been effectively removed for this match, with key goal-scorers Ibrahim Sabra and Yazan Al-Naimat officially ruled out. Although Jordan has averaged a decent 1.15 xG over their last six games, that number was built on the back of a healthy attacking line. Without their primary outlets, Jordan's offense will struggle heavily to test an Algerian backline that is bolstered by the return of key defender Ramy Bensebaïni. Expect Jordan to play with extreme defensive discipline to avoid conceding early, grinding the match to a crawl. The main argument against the Under is the sheer desperation of the tournament standings, where a draw does little to help either team's chances of catching Austria, potentially leading to an open, frantic second half. However, in high-pressure World Cup matches, desperation is far more likely to produce rigid tension, defensive panic, and poor finishing rather than fluid, high-scoring soccer. Both teams will be terrified of making the fatal mistake that sends them home, making a tight, low-scoring struggle under the 2.5-goal line the sharpest play on the board.
Lionel Messi remains the most lethal goal-scoring threat in the Argentine lineup, recording 8 goals in 12 caps during the current international cycle. His 0.67 goals-per-game average significantly exceeds the 51% implied probability of this -105 line.
Alexander Schlager is expected to face a heavy workload as the starting goalkeeper for an Austrian side that is statistically outmatched in possession and shot suppression. Argentina averages 10 shots per match with a high accuracy rate of 4.83 shots on target.
France enters this matchup as a dominant favorite, possessing the ball 61.5% of the time and generating over 15 shots per match. While Kylian Mbappé's recent average of 2.5 shots per game came against high-caliber defenses like Brazil and Colombia, this fixture against Iraq represents a massive drop in defensive quality.
Michael Olise has been the most clinical finisher for France in the current international cycle, scoring three goals in his first four caps. He faces an Iraqi defense that was thoroughly dismantled by Norway, conceding four goals and appearing vulnerable to runners coming from the second line.
Paul Goldschmidt presents the strongest platoon advantage on the board today. Facing southpaw Framber Valdez, Goldschmidt carries an elite .386 batting average and 1.218 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
While Riley Greene is the Tigers' most consistent bat, he faces a significant statistical hurdle in Gerrit Cole. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Cole has been overwhelmingly dominant against left-handed hitters this season, limiting them to a meager .183 batting average and .599 OPS across 71 at-bats.
Ben Rice has emerged as the Yankees' premier power threat in the absence of Aaron Judge, slugging 22 home runs in 263 at-bats—a rate of one home run every 11.95 at-bats. He enters this contest on a hot streak, having homered twice in his last three games.
Riley Greene has a significant environmental advantage tonight with a 13 mph wind blowing directly out to right field at Comerica Park. Greene, a left-handed hitter, faces Gerrit Cole, who has shown a distinct vulnerability to lefties this season; three of the four home runs Cole has surrendered in 2026 have come against left-handed bats. Cole's fly-ball tendency (0.53 GO/AO) makes him susceptible to wind-assisted home runs, especially in a park like Comerica when the wind is gusting toward the shallowest parts of the outfield for lefties. While Greene has only eight home runs on the season, the matchup against a fly-ball pitcher and the favorable wind conditions provide a clear path for him to exceed the 20% implied probability of this line.
Yandy Diaz enters this matchup with a significant statistical edge over Royals starter Michael Wacha. Diaz has historically dominated Wacha, recording four hits in ten career at-bats, including a home run.
Salvador Perez faces a daunting matchup tonight against Drew Rasmussen, who has been nearly unhittable for right-handed batters this season. Rasmussen is holding righties to a .125 batting average, and Perez himself has managed just one hit in eight career at-bats against him.
Otto Lopez is the most consistent offensive force for the Marlins, and tonight he draws a matchup that perfectly suits his statistical profile. Lopez is batting an elite .458 against left-handed pitching this season, and the Rangers are opening with left-hander Tyler Alexander.
Xavier Edwards is a high-contact hitter but possesses almost zero extra-base power, making him a prime candidate for the under on a 1.5 total bases line. Over his last five games, Edwards has failed to record an extra-base hit, totaling just two bases in that span (games of 1, 0, 0, 1, and 0 TB).
Kyle Schwarber is in the midst of a significant power surge, having recorded six home runs and 12 RBIs over his last 10 games while hitting .385. While a matchup against a left-handed starter like Foster Griffin typically suppresses left-handed bats, Schwarber has maintained elite reverse splits this season, posting a .294 average and a 1.036 OPS against southpaws.
While James Wood has strong season-long numbers, he has entered a sharp cooling period over the last week. In his last five games, Wood is just 2-for-19 at the plate, failing to record an extra-base hit or a run in that span.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters this matchup in a significant slump, batting just .205 over his last 10 games with only one home run in that span.
Christian Walker faces one of the toughest challenges in the league tonight in Dylan Cease, who has been particularly dominant at home with a 2.21 ERA. Cease leads the league in strikeout potential (13.6 K/9), a profile that matches up poorly for Walker, who has struggled for consistency recently.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest hitter in the Cubs lineup, entering tonight's game with five consecutive multi-category performances. Over his last five games, he has cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line with totals of 5, 5, 3, 3, and 7.
While Juan Soto is an elite offensive talent, this matchup favors the pitcher. Shota Imanaga has been dominant against left-handed hitters in 2026, holding them to a .217 batting average and a meager .708 OPS.
Jackson Chourio enters this matchup on an elite power surge, having recorded 5 home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games. This includes hitting a home run in three of his last four starts.
Sal Stewart provides a unique value opportunity against a returning Brandon Woodruff. While Woodruff was elite earlier this season (1.03 WHIP), tonight is his first Major League start since April 30.
Andrew Benintendi enters this matchup in the midst of a significant slump, having recorded zero hits in four of his last five games. His season average of .234 provides little confidence that he will break out against Gavin Williams, who has been dominant against left-handed hitters.
While Travis Bazzana has been on a recent hot streak hitting .314 over his last 10 games, tonight's matchup represents a significant statistical wall. Bazzana's production is heavily skewed toward right-handed pitching; against lefties like Anthony Kay, he is hitting just .169 with a .527 OPS.
Josh Bell is currently the most consistent producer in the Twins' lineup, entering this contest with a .412 batting average and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. He has successfully cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in 8 of those 10 contests.
Kyle Tucker has struggled with consistency recently, failing to record more than a single total base in any of his last five games (Total Bases: 1, 1, 1, 0, 0). While he remains a dangerous hitter, his season-long .234 average reflects a lower floor than in previous years. He faces Twins starter Zebby Matthews, who is a significant positive regression candidate; despite a 4.78 ERA, Matthews' xERA is nearly a full run lower (3.81), and his 1.18 WHIP demonstrates elite command and ability to limit baserunners. In a matchup where Matthews is expected to pitch better than his surface numbers suggest, and Tucker has lacked extra-base hit production for nearly a week, the Under on 1.5 Total Bases provides strong value.
The statistical intersection between Merrill Kelly's primary weakness and Alec Burleson's greatest strength makes this the strongest over on the board. Kelly has been severely punished by left-handed hitters this season, yielding a massive .943 OPS.
While the narrative of Arenado returning to St. Louis is compelling, the data heavily favors the under. Arenado is currently mired in a significant slump, failing to record even one total base in 19 of his last 25 outings.
Masataka Yoshida enters tonight's matchup at Coors Field as a prime candidate for the under on his Hits+Runs+RBIs line. Despite the hitter-friendly environment, Yoshida's recent production has been non-existent relative to this line; he has failed to record 3 or more combined HRR in each of his last 10 games.
Tyler Freeman's total bases line is significantly inflated by the Coors Field context, despite his actual production data suggesting the under is the clear value play. Freeman has failed to record multiple total bases in 9 of his last 10 games, consistently producing single-hit performances or going hitless.
Erling Haaland is the focal point of a Norway offense that is currently operating at a very high efficiency, averaging 3.4 goals and 11.4 shots per match over their last 10 internationals. Haaland's personal volume in this cycle has been elite, recording 9 shots in just 2 caps (4.5 per game), significantly higher than this 3.5 line.
Julian Ryerson occupies the right-back role for Norway and will be the primary defender tasked with containing Senegal's left-sided attack, typically led by Sadio Mané. Senegal is in a must-win situation after their opening loss to France and will likely utilize their wingers to progress the ball, as evidenced by their 53% possession in their previous fixture.
Junior Caminero is a significant power threat with 15 home runs on the season, but he enters this contest in a power drought, having failed to go deep in any of his last five games. While Michael Wacha is a fly-ball leaning pitcher (0.80 GO/AO) who can be susceptible to the long ball, Caminero's recent contact quality has been inconsistent (0 HR in L5).
Alec Burleson is in an ideal situational matchup to extend his recent power surge. Burleson has recorded a home run in three of his last four games (according to game logs) and thrives against right-handed pitching, slugging 12 of his 13 home runs this season against them while maintaining a 1.005 OPS. He faces Merrill Kelly, whose statistical profile is one of the most vulnerable in the league tonight.
Colson Montgomery is currently 'on a tear' per recent reports, having launched 4 home runs over his last five games to reach 20 on the season. This power surge aligns perfectly with Gavin Williams' primary weakness: the long ball.
Byron Buxton enters this matchup in elite form, hitting .366 with 4 home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces a Dodgers pitching staff utilizing an opener followed by bulk reliever Eric Lauer.
Shohei Ohtani continues to be the primary power engine for the Dodgers, recording 5 home runs in his last 10 games. He faces Zebby Matthews, who despite a solid WHIP, allows significant hard contact with an 11.3% barrel rate. Matthews is a fly-ball-leaning pitcher (0.72 GO/AO), which is dangerous against Ohtani, who has 11 of his 16 home runs against right-handed pitching and an elite 1.002 OPS in that split. Matthews has also shown higher vulnerability to left-handed hitters (.782 OPS allowed vs .705 vs RHB), providing Ohtani with the ideal matchup to drive the ball in the air.
Yordan Alvarez is performing at a Triple Crown level in 2026, leading the Astros with 25 home runs and a 1.067 OPS. He is in peak form, hitting .350 with 3 HR over his last 10 games, including a multi-HR game recently.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently the hottest hitter in the Cubs lineup, having launched four home runs in his last five games while batting .476 over his last ten. This power surge coincides with a matchup against Kodai Senga, whose 2026 campaign has been defined by extreme vulnerability to the long ball.
JJ Bleday is a significantly more dangerous power threat at Great American Ball Park, where he has launched 8 of his 13 home runs this season in just 75 at-bats (a 10.6% home run rate). While Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff has been dominant against lefties this season (.177 AVG allowed), he is making his first start since April 30 and displayed a velocity dip in his final rehab start (91-92 mph, roughly 2-3 mph below his average). The environmental factors are ideal for Bleday tonight, with an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field in one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues. Given his elite .983 OPS against right-handed pitching, Bleday is well-positioned to exploit any rust or decreased velocity from Woodruff.
Juan Soto's power production is heavily concentrated at Citi Field, where he has hit 9 of his 17 home runs this season while maintaining a massive 1.153 OPS. Tonight he faces Shota Imanaga, a fly-ball specialist (0.79 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression throughout the year, giving up 17 homers in 86.2 innings.
Eugenio Suarez enters this matchup with significant momentum after a 2-homer, 6-RBI explosion in his last game. While his season average remains low (.208), he remains a high-ceiling power threat, especially at home.
Willson Contreras is the Red Sox's primary offensive engine, leading the team with 16 home runs and a .903 OPS. He enters Coors Field in a favorable matchup against Ryan Feltner, whose underlying metrics suggest significant vulnerability to power.
Hunter Goodman is the Rockies' most prolific power threat this season, having launched 21 home runs in just 272 at-bats. Tonight, he faces rookie left-hander Jake Bennett at Coors Field, a venue perfectly suited for Goodman's right-handed pull power.
Despite the left-on-left matchup, Henderson holds a distinct statistical advantage due to Samuel Aldegheri's pronounced struggles against left-handed hitters. Aldegheri is currently yielding a .391 batting average and a staggering 1.196 OPS to left-handers this season, including two home runs in just 23 at-bats.
Zach Neto has been the primary engine of the Angels' offense, clearing the 1.5 hits-runs-rbis threshold in four of his last five games. Tonight he faces Kyle Bradish, who despite a recent 12-strikeout performance, has been vulnerable against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .300 batting average and a .853 OPS—significantly higher than his marks against lefties.
Jackson Merrill has become the Padres' most consistent contact threat with Jake Cronenworth sidelined, hitting .295 over his last 10 games. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five starts, including three multi-hit games and a home run.
While Matt Olson leads the Braves with 20 home runs, he has been held in check during Atlanta's recent cold spell where they have lost seven of their last 10 games. Olson has failed to clear 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, recording one or zero bases in those contests.
Algeria's offensive profile in the current international cycle is exceptionally low-volume, averaging just 6.0 total shots per match and 0.3 xG. Mohamed Amoura has not been a significant contributor to this limited output, recording only a single shot across his four most recent appearances.
This prop requires Olwan to record at least one shot in both the first and second halves, a high consistency bar for a player averaging just 1.23 shots per total match. Olwan is Jordan's top goalscorer in this cycle, but his volume is concentrated; he frequently records matches with zero or one shot when Jordan is starved of possession (averaging just 33.3%). Against an Algeria side that prioritizes a compact defensive structure and has allowed only 0.6 goals per game, Jordan's attacking opportunities will be limited to counter-attacks. The statistical likelihood of these transition opportunities being distributed perfectly such that Olwan finds a shooting window in both distinct 45-minute periods is low, especially given his career average suggests he often doesn't even reach two shots in a full 90-minute game.
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.218 OPS, 70 AB) sits well above his .683 mark the other way (110 AB). Tonight's starter Framber Valdez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Merrill Kelly (RHP)
Over 203 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a 1.005 OPS versus .463 in 90 AB the other way. He sees RHP Merrill Kelly tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Gavin Williams (RHP)
Over 154 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .895 OPS versus .472 in 41 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gavin Williams tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.953 OPS, 191 AB) sits well above his .499 mark the other way (79 AB). Tonight's starter Brady Singer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
MIA have won 6 straight
6 wins in a row for MIA, a +19 run margin across the streak — they come in 6-0 over their last 6.
P team lost 4-3
Argentina are unbeaten in 7 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 3-2-0 (W-D-W-D-W), carrying a 7-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 0-2
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Will Klein (RHP)
Over 172 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .853 OPS versus .493 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Will Klein tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.319 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a 1.319 OPS versus .883 for the season, 0.436 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Kodai Senga: 9 ERA vs 5.12 xERA
Kodai Senga carries a 9 ERA against a 5.12 expected ERA (3.88 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .292 off him vs a .241 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
Zebby Matthews's ERA drops to 1.80 at Target Field
Zebby Matthews carries a 1.80 ERA over 3 games (20 IP) at tonight's park vs 7.33 across 23.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .200 off him here. He starts here tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Kyle Schwarber to clear a fence
Kyle Schwarber enters tonight on a legendary power surge, having hit five home runs in his last five games, including four in a two-game set against the Mets. While he faces a left-hander in Foster Griffin, Schwarber has defied traditional platoon splits this season, batting .294 with 10 home runs against southpaws.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
Otto Lopez (bats R) draws Tyler Alexander (LHP), batting 2nd
Otto Lopez carries a 1.099 OPS vs. Left (72 AB) against .748 the other way (232 AB), and faces LHP Tyler Alexander from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
Jackson Chourio to homer
Jackson Chourio is the hottest hitter in the Brewers' lineup, coming off a 10-game stretch where he has mashed 5 home runs, including a 4-for-5, 2-HR performance recently. He faces Brady Singer, who has been highly vulnerable to the long ball this season, allowing 1.61 baserunners per inning and a total of 17 home runs.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
Jake Bauers to clear a fence
Jake Bauers represents a high-upside play based almost entirely on Brady Singer's severe struggles against left-handed hitting. Singer has surrendered 11 home runs to lefties in just 170 at-bats this season, resulting in a massive .948 opponent OPS.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
Yordan Alvarez to leave the yard
Alvarez is a Triple Crown candidate with 25 home runs in 78 games, a rate of one every 3.12 games. The +290 odds imply a 26% probability, offering clear value against his season-long performance.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
Alec Burleson to go deep
Alec Burleson is in an ideal situational matchup to extend his recent power surge. Burleson has recorded a home run in three of his last four games (according to game logs) and thrives against right-handed pitching, slugging 12 of his 13 home runs this season against them while maintaining a 1.005 OPS.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
Ben Rice to leave the yard
Ben Rice has emerged as the Yankees' premier power threat in the absence of Aaron Judge, slugging 22 home runs in 263 at-bats—a rate of one home run every 11.95 at-bats. He enters this contest on a hot streak, having homered twice in his last three games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
Kodai Senga: 9 ERA vs 5.12 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHC. A 9 ERA against a 5.12 expected ERA (3.88 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .292 vs .241 expected.
Josh Bell: 1.099 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a 1.099 OPS versus .708 for the season, 0.391 above his norm. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
Jac Caglianone: 1.236 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a 1.236 OPS, up 0.407 on his .829 season mark. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Pete Crow-Armstrong to leave the yard
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently the hottest hitter in baseball, posting a .476 average and 5 home runs over his last 10 games. He enters this matchup having homered in four of his last five games, showcasing an elite power surge.
Colson Montgomery to go deep
Colson Montgomery is currently 'on a tear' per recent reports, having launched 4 home runs over his last five games to reach 20 on the season. This power surge aligns perfectly with Gavin Williams' primary weakness: the long ball.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
Byron Buxton to homer
Byron Buxton enters this matchup in elite form, hitting .366 with 4 home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces a Dodgers pitching staff utilizing an opener followed by bulk reliever Eric Lauer.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB
Shohei Ohtani to clear a fence
Shohei Ohtani enters this matchup in elite power form, having launched five home runs over his last 10 games. He faces Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, which is a favorable split for Ohtani; the Dodgers DH carries a 1.002 OPS and 11 of his 16 season home runs against right-handed pitching.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
ARI's pen has logged 17 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 17 innings out of the pen — Philip Abner (2.7) and Ryan Thompson (2) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 16.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-3
Riley Greene to go deep
Riley Greene has a significant environmental advantage tonight with a 13 mph wind blowing directly out to right field at Comerica Park. Greene, a left-handed hitter, faces Gerrit Cole, who has shown a distinct vulnerability to lefties this season; three of the four home runs Cole has surrendered in 2026 have come against left-handed bats.
P 1 HR — 1-for-2, 4 TB, 2 BB
France are unbeaten in 5 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 4-1-0 (W-D-W-W-W), carrying a 5-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 0-3
WSH's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Miles Mikolas (6) and Brad Lord (3). PHI's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-4
Nasim Nunez: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 35 PA: a 1.087 OPS versus .602 for the season, 0.485 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.764 OPS, 182 AB) sits well above his .454 mark the other way (32 AB). Tonight's starter Gavin Williams throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
MIA's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by John King (2.7) and Cade Gibson (2.7). TEX's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-3
JJ Bleday (bats L) draws Brandon Woodruff (RHP), batting 2nd
JJ Bleday carries a .983 OPS vs. Right (126 AB) against .705 the other way (51 AB), and faces RHP Brandon Woodruff from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Carter Jensen: 1.110 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (44 PA) he is at a 1.110 OPS, up 0.361 on his .749 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Tyler Phillips: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.24 ERA over his last 13.7 innings with a 1.68 WHIP (1.38 season) — the 3.10 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Coby Mayo to go deep
Coby Mayo is a premier candidate for a home run tonight based on his dominant splits against left-handed pitching. Mayo has posted a 1.079 OPS against southpaws this season, with two-thirds of his home run production coming in those matchups.
Jake Burger: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.087 OPS spans the last 15 days (45 PA) against a .754 season baseline, a 0.333 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Rate Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Rate Field — Clear, 64°, wind 14 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry.
P final total 11 vs 0 (over lean)
Dillon Dingler: 1.175 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a 1.175 OPS versus .884 for the season, 0.291 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Gavin Williams: 7.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.3 IP) he has been tagged for 13 earned runs — a 7.63 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP (1.13 season) against a 3.83 season mark.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Anthony Kay: 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 8.31 ERA over his last 13 innings with a 1.62 WHIP (1.44 season) — the 4.61 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Brice Turang: .525 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Brice Turang's .525 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .823 season mark, down 0.298. Tonight he draws RHP Brady Singer — his stronger side: a .953 OPS vs RHP across 191 AB.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
France head the title market at +400
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +400. Spain (+500) and England (+600) are the next shortest.
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Overcast, 70°, wind 14 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry.
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Dillon Dingler's vs. Right line (.954 OPS, 183 AB) sits well above his .721 mark the other way (77 AB). Tonight's starter Gerrit Cole throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Spencer Steer: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Woodruff
Spencer Steer's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .752 season mark, down 0.267. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Woodruff — his weaker side: a .658 OPS vs RHP across 200 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
DET have won 4 straight
Detroit Tigers have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 16 runs over the run; 5-1 across their last 6.
P team won 3-5
Royce Lewis: .939 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a .939 OPS versus .662 for the season, 0.277 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Miguel Vargas: .545 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gavin Williams
Miguel Vargas's .545 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .818 season mark, down 0.273. Tonight he draws RHP Gavin Williams — his weaker side: a .702 OPS vs RHP across 190 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CHW's bullpen has covered 14.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Erick Fedde (4.7) and Joe Rock (2.3). CLE's pen has thrown only 5.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-6
Wyatt Langford: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.046 OPS spans the last 15 days (54 PA) against a .794 season baseline, a 0.252 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
Rhys Hoskins: .368 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay
Rhys Hoskins's .368 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .670 season mark, down 0.302. Tonight he draws LHP Anthony Kay — his weaker side: a .590 OPS vs LHP across 61 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Xavier Edwards: .431 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Tyler Alexander
Xavier Edwards's .431 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .786 season mark, down 0.355. Tonight he draws LHP Tyler Alexander — his stronger side: a .875 OPS vs LHP across 64 AB.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
KC's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Beck Way (4) and Mason Black (2). TB's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-1
Ecuador out-created the field but only drew
Ecuador won the xG battle 3.0–0.5 yet were held to a draw (0–0). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Conditions at Comerica Park: Partly Cloudy, 67°, wind 13 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 8 vs 8.5 (over lean)
Jordan Walker: .682 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Merrill Kelly
Jordan Walker's .682 OPS over the last 15 days (56 PA) trails his .876 season mark, down 0.194. Tonight he draws RHP Merrill Kelly — his weaker side: a .848 OPS vs RHP across 222 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Nolan Arenado: .415 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
Nolan Arenado's .415 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .703 season mark, down 0.288. Tonight he draws RHP Andre Pallante — his stronger side: a .715 OPS vs RHP across 177 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Brady Singer: 2.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 4 earned runs, 16 Ks. That 2.40 ERA sits 2.92 runs under his 5.32 season number.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Ben Rice: .816 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Framber Valdez
Ben Rice's .816 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his 1.004 season mark, down 0.188. Tonight he draws LHP Framber Valdez — his weaker side: a .858 OPS vs LHP across 84 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Dylan Crews: .200 AVG vs .268 xBA
Dylan Crews's .200 average comes against a .268 expected (xBA) on 110 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .266 against a .338 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.44 ERA vs 4.95 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 2.44 ERA against a 4.95 expected ERA (2.51 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .226 vs .266 expected.
NYM's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tobias Myers (2.3) and Cionel Perez (2). CHC's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Lazaro Estrada (2.3) and Tommy Nance (2) the heaviest). HOU's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-4
Spain are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Spain carry the shortest price to reach the final at +250 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
Argentina are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Argentina are -700 to win Group J — the shortest group-winner price on the day. The next side in Group J, Austria, is out at +475.
Merrill Kelly: 8.27 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 16.3 innings, 15 earned runs, 21 hits. That 8.27 ERA runs 2.45 over his 5.81 season number.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mookie Betts: .218 AVG vs .275 xBA
Across 186 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .218 average versus a .275 xBA. His wOBA sits at .296 against a .334 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
Blake Dunn: .289 AVG vs .237 xBA
Blake Dunn is hitting .289 against a .237 expected average (xBA) over 140 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .334 against a .279 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Yandy Diaz vs Michael Wacha: .400
Yandy Diaz's career line off Michael Wacha is 4-for-10, a .400 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (.832 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
Portugal are slipping in Group K
Portugal, a +1000 title pick, sit 3rd in Group K on 1 point after 1 — outside the automatic places.
Merrill Kelly: 5.81 ERA vs 7.51 xERA
Merrill Kelly carries a 5.81 ERA against a 7.51 expected ERA (1.7 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .280 off him vs a .309 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Brady Singer owns a 4.03 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.32 everywhere else
Across 6 games (29 IP) at this venue, Brady Singer has a 4.03 ERA against 6.32 at his other parks (37 IP). Hitters bat .276 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Great American Ball Park tonight
Conditions at Great American Ball Park: Partly Cloudy, 74°, wind 11 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight.
P final total 3 vs 0 (over lean)
12 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 12 innings over the last 3 games (Jonathan Hernandez (2.7) and Edgardo Henriquez (2) the heaviest). MIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-1
Drew Rasmussen: 0.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (21 IP) he has a 0.43 ERA with a 0.48 WHIP (0.88 season) and 29 strikeouts — his season mark is 2.59, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cincinnati Reds like to run — William Contreras (44% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 44% caught-stealing rate (15 of 34) and Cincinnati Reds run anyway — 0.8 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 0 bases
Edmundo Sosa: .237 AVG vs .280 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .237 average comes against a .280 expected (xBA) on 128 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .290 against a .328 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
Jac Caglianone (.877 vs RHP) replaces Vinnie Pasquantino at 1B tonight
Jac Caglianone draws RHP Drew Rasmussen from the 3rd spot. He carries a .877 OPS vs RHP (170 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .829 season line. On the injury report for 8 days (Hand).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Nathan Lukes (.832 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Nathan Lukes draws RHP Hunter Brown from the 2nd spot. He carries a .832 OPS vs RHP (113 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .762 season line. Hit the injury report today (Elbow).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Adrian Del Castillo (.628 vs RHP) replaces James McCann at C tonight
Adrian Del Castillo draws RHP Andre Pallante from the 6th spot. He carries a .628 OPS vs RHP (112 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .562 season line. On the injury report for 7 days (Quadriceps).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Freddie Freeman (.902 vs RHP) replaces Enrique Hernandez at 1B tonight
Freddie Freeman draws RHP Zebby Matthews from the 3rd spot. He carries a .902 OPS vs RHP (198 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .832 season line. On the injury report for 3 days (Oblique).
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
Miguel Vargas (.702 vs RHP) replaces Munetaka Murakami at 1B tonight
Miguel Vargas draws RHP Gavin Williams from the 2nd spot. He carries a .702 OPS vs RHP (190 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .818 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Hamstring).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Wyatt Langford (.831 vs RHP) replaces Michael Helman at CF tonight
Wyatt Langford draws RHP Tyler Phillips from the 2nd spot. He carries a .831 OPS vs RHP (101 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .794 season line. On the injury report for 3 days (Hand).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
Chase Meidroth: .271 AVG vs .227 xBA
Across 313 plate appearances, Chase Meidroth carries a .271 average versus a .227 xBA. His wOBA sits at .323 against a .284 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Norway are the surest bet to advance
Norway are -10000 to escape their group out of Group I — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
Spain created the better chances
Spain led the xG 2.9–0.1 and took the result to match (4–0).
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Nationals Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Nationals Park — Overcast, 83°, wind 10 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 5 vs 9.5 (over lean)
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
Ketel Marte: .259 AVG vs .300 xBA
Across 321 plate appearances, Ketel Marte carries a .259 average versus a .300 xBA. His wOBA sits at .332 against a .370 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.53 ERA
Andre Pallante starts at Busch Stadium tonight, where his ERA is 4.53 over 43.7 innings — 2.73 on a 33-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .272 off him here.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Otto Lopez: .332 AVG vs .295 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .332 against a .295 expected average (xBA) over 327 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .361 against a .337 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
Justin Wrobleski: 2.72 ERA vs 4.21 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 2.72 ERA against a 4.21 expected ERA (1.49 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .215 vs .267 expected.
Kyle Leahy: 4.63 ERA vs 6.1 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 4.63 ERA against a 6.1 expected ERA (1.47 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .298 vs .296 expected.
Tyler Phillips: 3.1 ERA vs 4.21 xERA
Tyler Phillips carries a 3.1 ERA against a 4.21 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .227 off him vs a .236 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Green light: Chicago White Sox run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 7%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 7% on the season (2-for-27 throwing), and Chicago White Sox attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Chicago White Sox stole 3 bases
Jordan vs Algeria — Group J at stake
In Group J, Jordan sit 3rd on 0 points and Algeria sit 4th on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. The market has it Jordan +550 / the draw +330 / Algeria -190.
Norway vs Senegal: the group picture
In Group I, Norway sit 1st on 3 points and Senegal sit 3rd on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Norway are 33-1 outsiders, Senegal are 100-1 outsiders. The market has it Norway +120 / the draw +245 / Senegal +235.
What France vs Iraq decides
In Group I, France sit 2nd on 3 points and Iraq sit 4th on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: France are the No. 1 title choice at +400, Iraq are 2500-1 outsiders. The market has it France -1100 / the draw +1100 / Iraq +2800.
Argentina vs Austria — Group J at stake
In Group J, Argentina sit 1st on 3 points and Austria sit 2nd on 3 points — three points reshape who advances. The market has it Argentina -215 / the draw +340 / Austria +650.
Framber Valdez owns a 4.94 ERA at Comerica Park — 3.59 everywhere else
Across 6 games (31 IP) at this venue, Framber Valdez has a 4.94 ERA against 3.59 at his other parks (52.7 IP). Hitters bat .264 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Zack Littell: 5.45 ERA vs 6.66 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 5.45 ERA against a 6.66 expected ERA (1.21 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .267 vs .296 expected.
Türkiye dominated the ball but didn't win
Türkiye held 79% of possession yet lost to Paraguay (0–1) — control without the cutting edge.
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Carter Jensen (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (10 of 29) and Tampa Bay Rays run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
Luinder Avila: 5.5 ERA vs 4.38 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 5.5 ERA against a 4.38 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .277 vs .230 expected.
Robbie Ray: 4.07 ERA vs 5.02 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 4.07 ERA against a 5.02 expected ERA (0.95 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .233 vs .242 expected.
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 2.21 ERA
Dylan Cease starts at Rogers Centre tonight, where his ERA is 2.21 over 40.7 innings — 3.34 on a 32.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .197 off him here.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Brandon Sproat: 5.94 ERA vs 5.08 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 5.94 ERA against a 5.08 expected ERA (0.86 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .257 vs .250 expected.
Jesús Luzardo: 4.2 ERA vs 3.35 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 4.2 ERA against a 3.35 expected ERA (0.85 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .259 vs .226 expected.
Minnesota Twins like to run — Dalton Rushing (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Minnesota Twins attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Dalton Rushing has cut down 7 of 20 runners (35%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
Argentina vs Austria: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
Everson Pereira (RF) is out for CHW — Braden Montgomery starts in his place tonight
With Everson Pereira out (Concussion; on the injury report for 4 days), Braden Montgomery draws the start at RF and bats 7th tonight and carries a .653 OPS / .231 AVG this season.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
Tommy Troy (.506 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
Tommy Troy draws RHP Andre Pallante from the 8th spot. He carries a .506 OPS vs RHP (55 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .705 season line. On the injury report for 2 days (Hamstring).
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
France v Iraq: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but tchouameni, jasim are a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
Argentina v Austria: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but montiel, posch are a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
Norway v Senegal: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.
Jordan v Algeria: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.
Under 2.5 -120
WC · 0-2
Austria +1.5 -120
WC · 0-2
Draw +1000
WC · 0-3
Under 3.5 +100
WC · 0-3
Rays ML -184
MLB · 12-5
Yankees ML -124
MLB · 4-3
Rangers ML +110
MLB · 4-6
Brewers ML -152
MLB · 2-0
Norway ML +135
WC · 2-3
Over 2.5 -110
WC · 2-3
Blue Jays ML -130
MLB · 9-7
Dodgers ML -154
MLB · 12-3
Cardinals ML -146
MLB · 4-3
Phillies ML +106
MLB · 14-9
White Sox ML -106
MLB · 1-2
Red Sox ML -136
MLB · 2-3
Orioles ML -162
MLB · 6-1
Braves ML +100
MLB · 0-1
Jordan +1.5 +110
WC · 2-1
Under 2.5 -115
WC · 2-1
Cubs ML -124
MLB · 9-6
Alec Burleson · over
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 1
Alec Burleson · over
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 0
Alexander Schlager · over
Austria @ Argentina · Actual 2
Ali Olwan · under
Algeria @ Jordan · Actual 3
Andrew Benintendi · under
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 2
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Tigers · Actual 0
Byron Buxton · over
Dodgers @ Twins · Actual 1
Christian Walker · under
Astros @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
Colson Montgomery · over
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 0
Erling Haaland · over
Senegal @ Norway · Actual 5
Eugenio Suarez · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 0
Gunnar Henderson · over
Orioles @ Angels · Actual 5
Hunter Goodman · over
Red Sox @ Rockies · Actual 0
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 0
Jackson Merrill · over
Braves @ Padres · Actual 0
James Wood · under
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 3
JJ Bleday · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 0
Josh Bell · over
Dodgers @ Twins · Actual 0
Juan Soto · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 0
Juan Soto · under
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 0
Julian Ryerson · over
Senegal @ Norway · Actual 1
Junior Caminero · under
Royals @ Rays · Actual 0
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 0
Kyle Tucker · under
Dodgers @ Twins · Actual 0
Kylian Mbappé · over
Iraq @ France · Actual 8
Lionel Messi · over
Austria @ Argentina · Actual 2
Masataka Yoshida · under
Red Sox @ Rockies · Actual 0
Matt Olson · under
Braves @ Padres · Actual 1
Michael Olise · over
Iraq @ France · Actual 0
Mohamed Amoura · under
Algeria @ Jordan · Actual 0
Nolan Arenado · under
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 2
Otto Lopez · over
Rangers @ Marlins · Actual 1
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ Tigers · Actual 2
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 0
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Mets · Actual 0
Riley Greene · under
Yankees @ Tigers · Actual 4
Riley Greene · over
Yankees @ Tigers · Actual 1
Sal Stewart · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 0
Salvador Perez · under
Royals @ Rays · Actual 0
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Twins · Actual 1
Travis Bazzana · under
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 3
Tyler Freeman · under
Red Sox @ Rockies · Actual 4
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · under
Astros @ Blue Jays · Actual 2
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Rockies · Actual 0
Xavier Edwards · under
Rangers @ Marlins · Actual 4
Yandy Diaz · over
Royals @ Rays · Actual 2
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
Zach Neto · over
Orioles @ Angels · Actual 1