Brewers at Reds
O/U 9.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Brewers ML -152
- Published odds
- -152
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 2-0
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Under the partly cloudy skies of Cincinnati, the division-leading Brewers roll into Great American Ball Park to open up a crucial ten-game stretch against their NL Central rivals. While the -152 moneyline on the visiting Brewers might feel steep for a team re-integrating their starting pitcher from an injury layoff, the pricing is highly favorable when looking at the matchup. The market is paying for a fragile number in Brady Singer’s 5.32 ERA, especially since his underlying metrics show a 5.79 xERA and a .394 opponent wOBA allowed. Singer is a fly-ball leaning pitcher (0.88 GO/AO) in a park that is already a hitter's haven, and tonight's weather features an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field. This is a catastrophic environment for Singer, who is being decimated by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .324 batting average and a .948 OPS.
Milwaukee’s lineup is perfectly optimized to exploit this weakness. They are starting six left-handed batters today, including Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, who will look to elevate Singer’s sinker and let the wind carry it toward GABP's short right-field porch. Furthermore, the Reds are playing tonight without their most dynamic offensive piece in Elly De La Cruz, who remains sidelined on the injured list until tomorrow. The Reds also face a severe mismatch behind the plate. Brewers catcher William Contreras has shut down opposing run games with a stifling 78.9% caught-stealing rate (15 of 19), whereas Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has permitted a high success rate, catching just 12 of 55 runners. This gives high-volume base stealers like Turang a green light to run at will.
The strongest argument against backing Milwaukee is the potential rust of Brandon Woodruff in his first Major League appearance since April 30. His fastball velocity in rehab was 92.1 mph, and the Reds are starting seven right-handed batters to target his weaker platoon split (.731 OPS allowed to righties). However, Woodruff’s 3.18 xERA indicates he was throwing with elite control before his injury, and he was stretched out to 82 pitches in his final rehab outing. Even if he is on a pitch count, the Brewers' bullpen is in excellent shape, with high-leverage arms Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe fully rested after not pitching yesterday. Conversely, Cincinnati's bullpen is heavily taxed, and relying on newly activated Pierce Johnson directly off elbow inflammation is a risky proposition. The Brewers hold the clear tactical edge.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona confirmed that De La Cruz (hamstring) will be reinstated from the 10-day injured list prior to Tuesday's game against the Brewers, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 0d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) threw 20 pitches and used his entire repertoire in a live batting practice session/simulated game Friday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) struck out six over four scoreless frames Thursday in his first rehab start with the Reds' Arizona Complex League affiliate. (Jun 19 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 19d ago) Brewers: [KNOWN] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow said Sunday that an MRI on his right forearm revealed a mild flexor strain, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall received an anti-inflammatory injection for his left pectoral strain Friday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right knee Thursday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Koenig (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 10 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports. (Jun 8 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday. (Jun 3 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 22d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Brady Singer: 2.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
2.40The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 4 earned runs, 16 Ks. That 2.40 ERA sits 2.92 runs under his 5.32 season number.
PLATOON EDGE
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
.953Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.953 OPS, 191 AB) sits well above his .499 mark the other way (79 AB). Tonight's starter Brady Singer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
JJ Bleday (bats L) draws Brandon Woodruff (RHP), batting 2nd
.983JJ Bleday carries a .983 OPS vs. Right (126 AB) against .705 the other way (51 AB), and faces RHP Brandon Woodruff from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
COOLING OFF
Brice Turang: .525 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
.525Brice Turang's .525 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .823 season mark, down 0.298. Tonight he draws RHP Brady Singer — his stronger side: a .953 OPS vs RHP across 191 AB.
Spencer Steer: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Woodruff
.485Spencer Steer's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .752 season mark, down 0.267. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Woodruff — his weaker side: a .658 OPS vs RHP across 200 AB.
HR THREAT
Jackson Chourio to homer
+340Jackson Chourio is the hottest hitter in the Brewers' lineup, coming off a 10-game stretch where he has mashed 5 home runs, including a 4-for-5, 2-HR performance recently. He faces Brady Singer, who has been highly vulnerable to the long ball this season, allowing 1.61 baserunners per inning and a total of 17 home runs.
Jake Bauers to clear a fence
+300Jake Bauers represents a high-upside play based almost entirely on Brady Singer's severe struggles against left-handed hitting. Singer has surrendered 11 home runs to lefties in just 170 at-bats this season, resulting in a massive .948 opponent OPS.
RUNNING GAME
Cincinnati Reds like to run — William Contreras (44% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
44% CSWilliam Contreras owns a 44% caught-stealing rate (15 of 34) and Cincinnati Reds run anyway — 0.8 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
BALLPARK
Brady Singer owns a 4.03 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.32 everywhere else
4.03Across 6 games (29 IP) at this venue, Brady Singer has a 4.03 ERA against 6.32 at his other parks (37 IP). Hitters bat .276 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Great American Ball Park tonight
OUT 11Conditions at Great American Ball Park: Partly Cloudy, 74°, wind 11 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight.
REGRESSION
Blake Dunn: .289 AVG vs .237 xBA
.237Blake Dunn is hitting .289 against a .237 expected average (xBA) over 140 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .334 against a .279 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 22, 2026 at 11:33 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKJACKSON CHOURIOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Jackson Chourio enters this matchup on an elite power surge, having recorded 5 home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games. This includes hitting a home run in three of his last four starts.
He faces Brady Singer, who has struggled significantly with home-run suppression at Great American Ball Park, posting a 2.79 HR/9 rate at home this year. Singer also relies heavily on a sinker-slider mix that allows a 42.4% hard-hit rate and a 10.7% barrel rate.
In a hitter-friendly environment with wind blowing 11 mph out to right field, Chourio's current contact quality and power profile align perfectly to exceed this total bases line. He has recorded 15 total bases in his last three games alone.
- GARY'S PICKSAL STEWARTTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Sal Stewart provides a unique value opportunity against a returning Brandon Woodruff. While Woodruff was elite earlier this season (1.03 WHIP), tonight is his first Major League start since April 30.
Crucially, in his final rehab outing on June 16, Woodruff's fastball velocity was clocked at 91-92 mph, which is approximately 2-3 mph below his career average. Facing a power hitter like Stewart (14 HR, 11 RBI in last 10 games) in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with wind blowing out to right field creates a high-variance situation for a pitcher shaking off two months of rust.
Stewart has cleared this 1.5 total bases line in three of his last five games and is the most likely candidate to exploit any diminished velocity or lack of command from the Brewers' starter.
- THE LONG SHOTJJ BLEDAYHR OVER 0.5
JJ Bleday is a significantly more dangerous power threat at Great American Ball Park, where he has launched 8 of his 13 home runs this season in just 75 at-bats (a 10.6% home run rate). While Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff has been dominant against lefties this season (.177 AVG allowed), he is making his first start since April 30 and displayed a velocity dip in his final rehab start (91-92 mph, roughly 2-3 mph below his average). The environmental factors are ideal for Bleday tonight, with an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field in one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues. Given his elite .983 OPS against right-handed pitching, Bleday is well-positioned to exploit any rust or decreased velocity from Woodruff.
- THE LONG SHOTEUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5
Eugenio Suarez enters this matchup with significant momentum after a 2-homer, 6-RBI explosion in his last game. While his season average remains low (.208), he remains a high-ceiling power threat, especially at home.
Brandon Woodruff has shown a clear platoon vulnerability this season, allowing a .265 average and .731 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to much lower marks against lefties. Suarez's fly-ball profile aligns perfectly with the hitter-friendly conditions at Great American Ball Park, and if Woodruff struggles with location in his return from the injured list, Suarez has the barrel rate to capitalize.
The combination of a right-handed starter returning from a long layoff and Suarez's recent power surge creates a strong opportunity for another long ball.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day