The stored Gary board for Sun, Jun 21. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Belgium's high-possession attack is severely hindered by the absence of Jérémy Doku, making them prone to slow and predictable play against a packed low block. Iran is structurally committed to a 5-4-1 defensive setup to secure a draw and protect their position in Group G. Despite travel fatigue, Iran's deep-lying posture will allow them to frustrate Belgium's creative midfielders and grind out a low-scoring stalemate at excellent value.
With Jérémy Doku sidelined, Belgium lacks the vertical pace to easily break down Iran's defensive five-man backline. Iran will employ a highly defensive 5-4-1 low block and slow down the tempo to combat their late-travel fatigue, resulting in a low-possession, low-scoring affair that stays comfortably under the total.
Uruguay is overvalued laying 1.5 goals given their five-match winless streak and severe finishing struggles, averaging only 1.1 goals over their last 10 matches. They are also missing key defensive anchors Ronald Araujo and Jose Maria Gimenez, while Cabo Verde is fully healthy and fresh off a heroic clean sheet against Spain.
Uruguay's highly inefficient offense averages only 3.33 shots on target per match, and they will struggle to break through Cabo Verde's low block. The intense Miami heat and humidity will slow the game's tempo, leading to a low-scoring, cagey battle that stays under the 2.5-goal line.
Egypt's technical quality and defensive discipline make them a strong side play here. Conceding just 0.7 goals per match over their last 10, Egypt will dominate possession (46.2% possession and 85.4% pass accuracy) and neutralize New Zealand's direct verticality. While New Zealand can be dangerous with Chris Wood, their defensive vulnerability (1.9 GA/gm) will eventually expose them to Egypt's superior class.
This match projects as a cagey, low-scoring tactical battle typical of Matchday 2. Egypt's elite defensive shape has kept recent clean sheets against Spain and Russia and held Belgium to 1 goal, while they average a modest 1.3 GF/gm on just 7.4 shots per match. With both teams playing conservatively to protect their group standing, expect a controlled game that stays under the 2.5-goal threshold.
Under the afternoon sun at Coors Field, the Colorado Rockies look to secure a rare three-game sweep against a reeling Pittsburgh Pirates squad in the altitude of Denver. While the market has established the visiting Pirates as -144 favorites on the moneyline, the value lies entirely with the home underdogs at +122. This game hinges on a starting pitching matchup between two right-handers who are highly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, but Jared Jones’s specific profile represents a catastrophic mismatch for Denver's unique conditions. Jones is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.78 GO/AO ratio who relies on a high-velocity fastball and slider that tend to flatten out at high altitude. Facing a Rockies lineup stacked with seven left-handed or switch-hitters—specifically the red-hot T.J. Rumfield, who is batting 14-for-38 with four home runs over his last 10 games—Jones’s tendency to allow fly balls in 89°F heat is a recipe for a high-scoring disaster. On the other side, Michael Lorenzen’s season-long 7.13 ERA is admittedly unsightly, but he represents a pitcher finding his footing with much better recent form, having allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts. Lorenzen’s sinker-reliant approach (1.07 GO/AO) is far better suited to keeping the ball in the yard at Coors than Jones's fly-ball-heavy attack. Furthermore, the defensive matchup heavily favors the Rockies. With Bryan Reynolds limited to DH duties due to a lingering groin injury, the Pirates are forced to employ a defensively compromised outfield of Ryan O'Hearn and Jake Mangum to patrol Coors Field's massive gaps. Colorado, meanwhile, features the elite speed of Jake McCarthy in center field, providing an essential safety net that can track down deep flies and limit extra-base damage. The primary concern for Colorado is their late-inning relief, where Victor Vodnik and his shaky 7.78 ERA could create high-stakes tension compared to Pittsburgh's elite closer, Gregory Soto. However, the Pirates are dealing with severe late-inning psychological distress after failing to score with the bases loaded and no outs in the ninth inning of both games this series. Additionally, Colorado's bullpen has a multi-inning weapon in Antonio Senzatela, who has excelled in relief with a 2.23 ERA over 40.1 innings to help bridge the gap. Backed by home-field familiarity, superior outfield range, and the sheer confidence of a two-game winning streak in tight games, the Rockies are in an ideal spot to capitalize on their platoon advantages and complete the home sweep as generous plus-money underdogs.
A high-stakes Sunday matinee is on tap in the desert as the Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks lock horns in a Father's Day rubber match at Chase Field. With both teams fighting for Wild Card positioning, the battle comes down to a clash of pitching stability versus offensive adaptability. The market price of -134 for the Diamondbacks is an absolute bargain here because the Twins are extremely vulnerable under the afternoon sun. Minnesota's primary power threat, Byron Buxton, is a different player during the day, where his OPS drops to .582 compared to a spectacular 1.164 at night. This massive daytime drop-off, combined with the fresh injury to Twins star catcher Ryan Jeffers—who is sidelined with a left hand injury—severely caps the ceiling of Minnesota's lineup today. On the other hand, Arizona's Corbin Carroll is built for these conditions, carrying a dominant .991 OPS in day games. Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are primed to feast on Mike Paredes, who has been heavily overperforming his metrics. Paredes carries an actual opponent wOBA of .264, but his expected xwOBA is .313, meaning the market is paying for a fragile, luck-driven number. With a fly-ball tendency (0.84 GO/AO) and a high 43.2% Hard-Hit rate, Paredes is a prime regression candidate. While Arizona is turning to rookie Jose Cabrera for his MLB debut due to fresh rotation injuries to Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka, Cabrera is well-positioned to succeed. Having posted a stellar 3.69 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A this season, his high-strikeout stuff will keep a free-swinging Twins lineup off-balance, especially since Minnesota has zero major-league data or film on his pitching sequences. More importantly, Cabrera has an elite defensive unit (.990 fielding percentage with only 28 errors) behind him to clean up routine balls, unlike the Twins, whose leaky defense has committed 45 errors this season. Even if Cabrera only goes four or five frames, the Diamondbacks can hand the ball to their highly rested late-inning weapons, including setup man Jonathan Loaisiga (2.86 ERA), Juan Morillo (2.48 ERA), and closer Paul Sewald (18 SV, 0.74 WHIP). Because Saturday's game was a blowout, Arizona avoided burning these high-leverage arms, giving them a monumental advantage over a terrible Minnesota relief group. The counter-argument against backing Arizona is that the Twins are coming off an absolute offensive explosion after putting up 16 runs and 20 hits on Saturday, bringing immense momentum into this game. However, standard baseball variance shows that teams coming off huge double-digit run outbursts frequently experience a major offensive "hangover" the next day, especially in quick-turnaround afternoon games. Minnesota's sub-.500 road record of 17-22 further highlights their inconsistency away from home. Relying on Mike Paredes to give depth when he has been averaging under four innings per appearance is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona squad that is 24-16 at Chase Field. Trust the stronger home team, the superior bullpen, and the favorable day-game splits to carry the Diamondbacks to victory today.
The sun is shining bright over Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento as the Athletics and Angels prepare to wrap up a high-stakes four-game series with divisional and spoiler implications on this warm Sunday afternoon. The market has priced the Athletics as home favorites, paying a premium for their division-chase narrative as they sit at 38-39 overall and just 0.5 games back in the AL West, compared to the last-place Angels who are 31-47 overall and 8.0 games back. However, a sharp look at this matchup reveals that the line is overvaluing Oakland's standing and neglecting a staggering starting pitching advantage for the visiting Angels. Angels starter Reid Detmers has performed like an absolute ace this season, backing up a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with an elite 2.79 xERA. Over his last five starts, Detmers has been virtually untouchable, posting a 1.36 ERA and 0.52 WHIP. He is the ultimate lefty eraser, limiting left-handed bats to a .185 average and a .499 OPS, which perfectly positions him to neutralize Oakland's top left-handed threats like Nick Kurtz (.287 average, 18 HR) and Tyler Soderstrom. On the other side, Athletics starter Jack Perkins has labored with a 6.15 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, struggling to a 7.62 ERA over his last three starts while surrendering four home runs over his last 13.0 innings. Perkins also allows a massive .295 average and .873 OPS to right-handed hitters, creating a perfect storm against an Angels lineup loaded with right-handed power in Zach Neto (16 HR) and Logan O'Hoppe (.424 average over his last 10 games). The most compelling argument for Oakland lies in their defensive stability and late-inning bullpen security. The Athletics have committed only 30 errors with a .989 fielding percentage, while the Angels have struggled with 48 errors and a .983 fielding percentage. Additionally, if this game becomes a race to the bullpen, Oakland features a rested Hogan Harris (3.03 ERA), whereas the Angels are anchored by a highly vulnerable Jordan Romano (10.13 ERA, 2.13 WHIP). Nevertheless, yesterday's commanding 7-0 blowout victory showed that a strong starting pitching performance can completely suppress the Athletics' lineup. With Detmers capable of working deep and exploiting Oakland's left-handed core, the Angels are well-positioned to take an early lead and avoid high-leverage bullpen exposure altogether. At +110, the Angels represent the clear value side.
It’s a gorgeous but overcast afternoon in Los Angeles as the Orioles and Dodgers prepare to settle this high-stakes interleague series in a Father’s Day rubber match at Dodger Stadium. The market has placed a hefty -230 premium on the defending champion Dodgers, but there is a clear reason why the smart money is laying the juice. This game boils down to an extreme disparity in situational readiness and roster health. The Dodgers are a flawless 10-0 this season immediately following a loss, displaying a championship DNA that refuses to let brief slumps turn into series defeats. Conversely, the Orioles are completely reeling from a brutal wave of fresh injuries to their core. While the Dodgers’ starting lineup is bolstered by the return of Shohei Ohtani, who hit his 16th home run of the season yesterday after returning from paternity leave, Baltimore is facing a functional crisis. The Orioles were dealt a devastating blow yesterday when star catcher Adley Rutschman was placed on the concussion list, and second baseman Jackson Holliday was forced to exit with groin tightness. Without Rutschman’s elite on-field leadership and his 54.1% caught-stealing rate, the Orioles must rely on rookie Samuel Basallo (38.8% caught-stealing rate) to guide Brandon Young. Young carries a shiny 3.18 ERA, but his underlying 4.35 xERA suggests his luck is running out. He faces a disciplined Dodgers lineup that features elite hitters like Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, both of whom excel at punishing Young’s fastball-heavy arsenal. The strongest argument against backing Los Angeles is Young's impressive reverse-split dominance (.206 AVG allowed against left-handed hitters), which could theoretically neutralize the Dodgers' lefty-heavy middle order. However, the sheer gap in fundamental execution and late-inning bullpen strength will overwhelm that single matchup advantage. The Dodgers boast the cleanest defense in baseball with a league-best .991 fielding percentage and only 25 errors, while the Orioles have coughed up a sloppy 46 errors. Behind Emmet Sheehan, who is primed for positive regression with a 3.81 xERA that is nearly a run better than his 4.76 actual ERA, the Dodgers can play clean, error-free baseball. With a fully rested Tanner Scott (2.32 ERA) waiting in the wings to slam the door, compared to Baltimore's overworked and struggling closer Ryan Helsley (5.11 ERA), trust the Dodgers to take care of business and secure their 50th win of the season.
It is a beautiful afternoon at T-Mobile Park as the Seattle Mariners host the Boston Red Sox, looking to salvage a game and avoid a sweep in front of a crucial Father's Day crowd. While the Mariners enter with the division lead and send their red-hot starter Logan Gilbert to the mound, the real value lies with the visitors at a highly attractive plus-money price. The market is overpaying for a fragile number with Logan Gilbert. While Gilbert has been on an incredible run over his last five starts—boasting a 1.50 ERA and a microscopic 0.80 WHIP—his full-season xERA of 4.03 suggests he has been skating on thin ice. Gilbert allows a dangerous 11.8% Barrel rate and a 45% Hard-hit rate, making him highly vulnerable to a disciplined lineup. Boston's Willson Contreras, who leads the Red Sox with 16 home runs and a .917 OPS, is a matchup nightmare for Gilbert, crushing both righties and afternoon pitching. Furthermore, Ceddanne Rafaela has historically hit Gilbert well, and the Red Sox have consistently generated run support on the road, where they hold a solid 19-18 record. On the other side of the ball, Payton Tolle (2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) represents a formidable challenge for a slumping Mariners offense. Tolle’s underlying 2.67 xERA proves his success is entirely sustainable, and his fly-ball-heavy profile (0.53 GO/AO) matches up perfectly with T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly 0.94 park factor and heavy marine air. The slumping Mariners have been absolutely stifled by left-handed pitching lately, including a two-hit shutout performance yesterday. Without key bats, their current lineup relies heavily on players like Dominic Canzone, who struggles with a .200 average against southpaws. Tolle’s mid-90s heat from the left side should keep Seattle completely off-balance. Even if the Mariners' high-floor defense and Gilbert keep this game close, the late-inning bullpen mismatch heavily favors Boston. The Red Sox can hand a late lead to a fully rested Aroldis Chapman, who has been completely dominant with a microscopic 0.83 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Conversely, Seattle's closer Andrés Muñoz has struggled immensely, posting a 5.47 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP that makes him a major liability in tight situations. Expect the Red Sox to maintain their road poise, exploit the platoon advantages, and complete the sweep.
Sunday Night Baseball rolls into Citizens Bank Park as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets for a high-stakes divisional rubber match under the national spotlight. The pitching matchup presents a massive disparity. The Phillies send out ace Zack Wheeler, who enters with a pristine 2.01 ERA, a league-best 0.85 WHIP, and a dominant 2.03 ERA over his last five starts. While the market is paying a slight premium for his surface performance—as his 3.04 xERA indicates—he remains a premier stopper who neutralizes left-handed batters to a .173 average. The Mets counter with David Peterson, whose 5.91 season ERA and a staggering 8.75 ERA over his last five appearances reflect deep command issues, having walked 15 batters in his last 23.2 innings. The hitting matchups and environmental conditions create a perfect storm for the Phillies' offense. Peterson is highly vulnerable against right-handed hitters, allowing a .303 average and a .793 OPS. The Phillies' lineup features right-handed "Peterson killers" like Edmundo Sosa (.667 AVG, 1.711 OPS in 9 career ABs) and Alec Bohm (.321 AVG, .952 OPS in 28 ABs). Moreover, the warm 83°F heat and a 10 mph wind blowing out to right field transform this hitter-friendly venue (1.06 Park Factor) into a launching pad. This setup directly favors left-handed pull hitters like Kyle Schwarber, who carries a massive 1.013 OPS against lefties, and Bryce Harper, who holds a career 1.007 OPS against Peterson. Peterson's 43.3% hard-hit rate is extremely dangerous in these conditions. The best argument for the Mets lies in their bounce-back desperation and Juan Soto's historical success against Wheeler (.892 career OPS in 54 ABs). However, the Mets' offense is compromised without Francisco Lindor, and their bullpen is heavily taxed after yesterday's 15-3 blowout. The Phillies, conversely, have a fresh high-leverage unit ready to support Wheeler, anchored by Jhoan Duran (1.82 ERA, 18 saves). Supported by a superior defense (.987 fielding percentage with 36 errors compared to the Mets' .984 and 42 errors), the Phillies have too many pathways to victory. Take the Phillies ML at -188 to lock in the home win.
Ayase Ueda is the clinical focal point of a Japan attack that has averaged 1.9 goals per match over its last 10 games and scored 6 goals in its first two World Cup fixtures. Ueda's individual production is elite, tallying 8 goals in 9 caps, suggesting he is responsible for nearly half of Japan's offensive output when on the pitch.
While Tunisia has struggled to generate high-quality chances (0.17 xG/match), they still average 7.25 shots per match, many of which come from low-probability long-range efforts or set pieces. Hannibal Mejbri is the central figure in Tunisia's midfield and demonstrated high individual shot volume in his most recent cap, recording 3 shots.
Kazuma Okamoto is in a prime position to go deep for the second consecutive game. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has been a home run liability throughout the 2026 season, surrendering 17 home runs in 86.2 innings.
Matt Olson is in a premier spot to exploit Robert Gasser's significant platoon struggle against left-handed hitters. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Gasser has been historically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a 1.055 OPS and 2 home runs in just 29 at-bats.
Colson Montgomery has established himself as one of the premier power-hitting shortstops in the league this season, totaling 20 home runs through 72 games. His recent form is even more impressive, as he has launched five home runs over his last 10 contests.
James Wood is the premier power threat in the Nationals lineup, leading the team with 20 home runs and demonstrating a significant preference for right-handed pitching. He carries a massive .989 OPS against righties, the side from which Nick Martinez throws.
Yordan Alvarez is in peak form at home, batting .347 with a 1.107 OPS at Daikin Park this season. He faces Slade Cecconi, a right-hander who has struggled with contact quality, allowing an 8.2% barrel rate and 11 home runs over 78.1 innings.
Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 15 home runs and faces a left-handed starter in Andrew Alvarez who is highly susceptible to hard contact. Alvarez allows a hard-hit rate of 51.3%, one of the highest marks among today's starters.
**MATCHUP:** vs Chase Burns (R). Rice is hitting .299 with a 1.052 OPS and 16 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Rice faces a fly-ball-oriented pitcher in Chase Burns (0.76 GO/AO), which creates an ideal home run environment at Yankee Stadium for a pull-heavy lefty.
While much of the focus is on Houston's left-handed bats, Slade Cecconi actually shows a reverse platoon split that favors right-handed hitters like Christian Walker. Cecconi has allowed a .285 average and a .805 OPS to right-handed batters this season, compared to a .274 average and .730 OPS against lefties.
Jac Caglianone is the definition of 'hot,' having homered in both games of this series against St. Louis pitching to reach 10 on the season. While Dustin May is coming off a dominant one-hit shutout, his season-long profile reveals a specific vulnerability that Caglianone is equipped to exploit.
**MATCHUP:** vs Elmer Rodriguez (R). Bleday hits .272 with a .991 OPS and 10 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Bleday faces Elmer Rodriguez, who has struggled with control in his 2026 MLB sample, posting a 1.85 WHIP and a 6.2 BB/9. Rodriguez's inability to find the zone consistently should lead to high-traffic situations and hitter-friendly counts for the top of the Reds' order. Bleday has demonstrated significant power this year (13 HR in 47 GP) and hits a home run every 13.4 at-bats, making him a major threat against a pitcher allowing high baserunner volume. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** The short porch at Yankee Stadium and 8 mph wind blowing out to right field directly benefit Bleday's left-handed swing. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Bleday is batting 2nd in the Reds' lineup, maximizing his plate appearance volume (likely 4-5) against a starter and a Yankees bullpen that has seen significant recent usage. **THE RISK:** Rodriguez was a high-velocity prospect (reaching 99 mph); if he manages his command better than his season stats suggest, his raw velocity could neutralize Bleday's power and force ground-ball contact.
Carter Jensen provides significant value at +400 due to his secured volume and elite recent contact. As the Royals' leadoff hitter, Jensen will see the maximum number of plate appearances, providing more opportunities to extend his 10-game hitting streak and find a home run.
This matchup presents a statistical anomaly that heavily favors the hitter. Pirates starter Jared Jones has been historically vulnerable against left-handed hitting this season, surrendering a massive .439 batting average and a 1.306 OPS to the platoon.
Brandon Lowe occupies the second spot in the Pirates' lineup, maximizing his plate appearance volume in a game with a high total (10.5). He faces Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled immensely at Coors Field this season (8.44 ERA) and possesses a severe platoon disadvantage against lefties (.403 AVG allowed). Lowe is the Pirates' primary power threat from the left side, having hit 14 of his 18 home runs against right-handed pitching. Given Lorenzen's 1.85 WHIP and 45.5% hard-hit rate allowed, Lowe is positioned to benefit from both his own power and the high volume of baserunners expected ahead of and behind him in the order.
Byron Buxton is currently playing at an elite level, tied for the American League lead in home runs (24) and coming off a grand slam in yesterday's 16-run explosion. He faces rookie right-hander Jose Cabrera in his MLB debut, a high-pressure situation for a pitcher with a projected opponent wOBA of .349.
While the Twins' offense is surging, Royce Lewis remains a high-variance hitter with a low statistical floor. Despite some recent home run production, Lewis's season average sits at just .200, and he has been significantly less effective against right-handed pitching, batting only .193 with a .622 OPS in that split.
While Nick Kurtz has had a standout season, this specific matchup against Reid Detmers is historically oppressive for left-handed hitters. Detmers has neutralized same-side batters all season, limiting lefties to a .185 batting average, a .499 OPS, and only one home run across 81 at-bats.
Zack Gelof enters this matchup as the Athletics' most productive hitter, currently riding a 10-game hitting streak during which he has batted .368 with four home runs. He possesses a clear platoon advantage against Angels starter Reid Detmers; while Detmers is tough overall, Gelof has thrived against left-handed pitching this season with a .309 average and .861 OPS.
Pete Alonso enters the series finale on a power surge, having homered in both the Friday and Saturday contests at Dodger Stadium. He serves as the primary offensive engine for an Orioles lineup currently missing star catcher Adley Rutschman.
Mookie Betts has reclaimed his role as the catalyst for the Dodgers' offense, posting a .300 average over his last 10 games. He faces Brandon Young, whose surface-level success (3.18 ERA) is contradicted by several underlying metrics that suggest he is vulnerable against elite competition.
Rob Refsnyder has struggled immensely in 2026, batting just .133 with a .432 OPS across 46 games. Tonight, he faces a difficult matchup against left-hander Payton Tolle, who has been highly effective against right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .203 batting average.
Willson Contreras is the clear standout in the Red Sox offense and enters this matchup with significant statistical advantages. While Logan Gilbert is a formidable pitcher, he has struggled significantly at T-Mobile Park this season, carrying a 5.02 ERA compared to his 1.04 road mark.
Vozinha is set for a high-volume workload based on Cabo Verde's established tournament identity. In their opening match against Spain, Cabo Verde surrendered 74% of possession and allowed an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.1, yet managed a clean sheet, indicating that Vozinha was forced to mitigate significant pressure.
Valverde serves as Uruguay's primary threat from distance, a role that becomes exponentially more important when facing a disciplined low block like Cabo Verde's. While his average of 1.33 shots per match is lower than this line, that figure includes games against elite competition where Uruguay does not dictate play.
Jo Adell provides significant power potential in a game tailored for the long ball. He faces Jack Perkins, who has struggled with a 6.15 ERA and has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .295 average and a .873 OPS to the platoon this season.
Nick Kurtz is the premier power threat in the Athletics lineup and has shown a dramatic preference for his home environment in Sacramento, where he has hit 12 of his 18 home runs this season while maintaining a 1.079 OPS. While facing Reid Detmers is a challenging lefty-on-lefty matchup, Detmers is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.59 GO/AO ratio.
Alec Bohm enters this matchup with a significant statistical edge against Mets left-hander David Peterson. Peterson has struggled immensely against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .303 batting average.
While Bo Bichette has been on a hot streak recently, he faces a monumental challenge tonight against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, carrying a 2.01 ERA and an elite 0.85 WHIP.
Taking the under on Omar Marmoush's shot volume is a play on extreme statistical regression. Marmoush has averaged only 0.75 shots per match across his last four international appearances, yet his line is set at a lofty 4.0.
Chris Wood enters this match in extraordinary international form, having netted 9 goals in his last 5 appearances for New Zealand. While Egypt possesses a disciplined defensive unit that has conceded only 0.7 goals per match over their last 10, Wood remains the undisputed focal point of the All Whites' attack and their primary goal-scoring threat.
Max Muncy enters this matchup as the Dodgers' most consistent power threat currently in the lineup, with 16 home runs on the season. While Brandon Young's surface numbers are impressive (3.18 ERA), his 4.35 xERA and high 41.3% hard-hit rate allowed suggest significant vulnerability to power hitters.
Ryan Ward presents significant value at +390, requiring only a 20.4% implied probability to be a winning selection. In a limited sample size of 16 games, Ward has demonstrated legitimate power with 3 home runs in just 46 at-bats, showing he can capitalize on mistakes.
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)
Over 110 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a 1.009 OPS versus .535 in 58 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kai-Wei Teng tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Stephen Kolek (RHP)
Over 199 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .993 OPS versus .446 in 89 AB the other way. He sees RHP Stephen Kolek tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB, 1 BB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Keider Montero (RHP)
Over 151 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .911 OPS versus .483 in 40 AB the other way. He sees RHP Keider Montero tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.967 OPS, 186 AB) sits well above his .499 mark the other way (79 AB). Tonight's starter Bryce Elder throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Zac Gallen (RHP)
Over 168 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .838 OPS versus .493 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zac Gallen tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
Kazuma Okamoto to homer
Kazuma Okamoto is in a prime position to go deep for the second consecutive game. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has been a home run liability throughout the 2026 season, surrendering 17 home runs in 86.2 innings.
CHW's bullpen has covered 19 innings over the last 3 games
That is 19 relief innings in 3 games, led by Sean Burke (7.3) and Erick Fedde (4.7). DET's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-5
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.776 OPS, 179 AB) sits well above his .454 mark the other way (32 AB). Tonight's starter Keider Montero throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
Kodai Senga: 9 ERA vs 5.11 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHC. A 9 ERA against a 5.11 expected ERA (3.89 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .292 vs .241 expected.
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .934 OPS vs. Right (192 AB) against .621 the other way (82 AB), and faces RHP Tomoyuki Sugano from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
17.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 17.3 innings over the last 3 games (Griffin Canning (4.3) and Jason Adam (3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-4
Matt Olson to leave the yard
Matt Olson is in a premier spot to exploit Robert Gasser's significant platoon struggle against left-handed hitters. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Gasser has been historically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a 1.055 OPS and 2 home runs in just 29 at-bats.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
James Wood to homer
James Wood is the premier power threat in the Nationals lineup, leading the team with 20 home runs and demonstrating a significant preference for right-handed pitching. He carries a massive .989 OPS against righties, the side from which Nick Martinez throws.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
Xavier Edwards: .422 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Webb
Xavier Edwards's .422 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .787 season mark, down 0.365. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Webb — his weaker side: a .762 OPS vs RHP across 216 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
Colson Montgomery to go deep
Colson Montgomery has established himself as one of the premier power-hitting shortstops in the league this season, totaling 20 home runs through 72 games. His recent form is even more impressive, as he has launched five home runs over his last 10 contests.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
A.J. Ewing (bats L) hits 5th against Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Over 87 AB vs. Right, A.J. Ewing owns a .815 OPS versus .437 in 33 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
WSH's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Miles Mikolas (6) and Mitchell Parker (4.3). TB's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-4
Yordan Alvarez to leave the yard
Yordan Alvarez is in peak form at home, batting .347 with a 1.107 OPS at Daikin Park this season. He faces Slade Cecconi, a right-hander who has struggled with contact quality, allowing an 8.2% barrel rate and 11 home runs over 78.1 innings.
P 1 HR — 1-for-2, 4 TB, 2 BB
Victor Caratini: 1.252 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.252 OPS spans the last 15 days (29 PA) against a .700 season baseline, a 0.552 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB, 1 BB
Logan O'Hoppe: 1.168 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.168 OPS spans the last 15 days (33 PA) against a .683 season baseline, a 0.485 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Junior Caminero to go deep
Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 15 home runs and faces a left-handed starter in Andrew Alvarez who is highly susceptible to hard contact. Alvarez allows a hard-hit rate of 51.3%, one of the highest marks among today's starters.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
Josh Bell: .998 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a .998 OPS versus .703 for the season, 0.295 above his norm. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB, 1 BB
Zack Gelof: 1.147 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (51 PA) he is at a 1.147 OPS, up 0.304 on his .843 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
Nolan Arenado: .353 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Taj Bradley
Nolan Arenado's .353 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .701 season mark, down 0.348. Tonight he draws RHP Taj Bradley — his stronger side: a .713 OPS vs RHP across 174 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
Nasim Nunez: 1.033 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 35 PA: a 1.033 OPS versus .592 for the season, 0.441 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
Christian Walker to homer
While much of the focus is on Houston's left-handed bats, Slade Cecconi actually shows a reverse platoon split that favors right-handed hitters like Christian Walker. Cecconi has allowed a .285 average and a .805 OPS to right-handed batters this season, compared to a .274 average and .730 OPS against lefties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
Ben Rice to leave the yard
**MATCHUP:** vs Chase Burns (R). Rice is hitting .299 with a 1.052 OPS and 16 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
P 1 HR — 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
Willy Adames: .338 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Gusto
Willy Adames's .338 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .696 season mark, down 0.358. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Gusto — his stronger side: a .743 OPS vs RHP across 224 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Tyler Soderstrom: 1.122 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a 1.122 OPS, up 0.306 on his .816 season mark. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 3.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
France head the title market at +370
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +370. Spain (+500) and England (+600) are the next shortest.
Bo Bichette: .933 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .933 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .667 season baseline, a 0.266 swing. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 3.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
MIA's bullpen has covered 14.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Zuber (3) and Cade Gibson (2.7). SF's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-2
Japan are unbeaten in 4 internationals
Their last 5 at the World Cup read W-D-D-W-L — a 2-2-1 record and a 4-match unbeaten run.
P team won 4-0
Saudi Arabia are winless in 4 internationals
Their last 5 at the World Cup read L-D-L-L-W — a 1-1-3 record and a 4-match run without a win.
P team lost 0-4
Belgium are winless in 4 internationals
Recent tournament form sits 1-3-1 over the last 5 (D-D-D-L-W), with a 4-match run without a win live.
P team drew 0-0
Spencer Steer: .469 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Elmer Rodriguez
Spencer Steer's .469 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .752 season mark, down 0.283. Tonight he draws RHP Elmer Rodriguez — his weaker side: a .656 OPS vs RHP across 196 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
Lawrence Butler: .954 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .954 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .583 season baseline, a 0.371 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
BOS's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Ranger Suarez (6.7) and Greg Weissert (2) carried the load. SEA's pen has thrown 14 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-1
Egypt are winless in 4 internationals
Recent tournament form sits 0-1-3 over the last 4 (D-L-L-L), with a 4-match run without a win live.
P team won 3-1
Andy Pages: .581 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Trevor Rogers
Andy Pages's .581 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .801 season mark, down 0.22. Tonight he draws LHP Trevor Rogers — his weaker side: a .739 OPS vs LHP across 74 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.31 ERA vs 6.92 xERA
Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 4.31 ERA against a 6.92 expected ERA (2.61 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .308 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Elmer Rodriguez: 2.44 ERA vs 4.95 xERA
Elmer Rodriguez carries a 2.44 ERA against a 4.95 expected ERA (2.51 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .226 off him vs a .266 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
What Tunisia vs Japan decides
In Group F, Tunisia sit 4th on 0 points and Japan sit 2nd on 4 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Tunisia are 1500-1 outsiders. The market has it Tunisia +5500 / the draw +1600.
Spain vs Saudi Arabia: the group picture
In Group H, Spain sit 1st on 4 points and Saudi Arabia sit 4th on 1 point — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Spain are the No. 2 title choice at +500, Saudi Arabia are 1000-1 outsiders. The market has it Spain -6000 / the draw +1900 / Saudi Arabia +4500.
Belgium vs Iran — Group G at stake
In Group G, Belgium sit 2nd on 2 points and Iran sit 1st on 2 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Iran are 750-1 outsiders. The market has it Belgium +1900 / the draw -3000 / Iran +2500.
What Uruguay vs Cabo Verde decides
In Group H, Uruguay sit 2nd on 2 points and Cabo Verde sit 3rd on 2 points — three points reshape who advances. To lift the trophy: Uruguay are 80-1 outsiders, Cabo Verde are 2500-1 outsiders. The market has it Uruguay +150 / the draw -125 / Cabo Verde +900.
Jack Perkins: 6.15 ERA vs 3.76 xERA
Jack Perkins carries a 6.15 ERA against a 3.76 expected ERA (2.39 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .234 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Ecuador out-created the field but only drew
Ecuador won the xG battle 3.0–0.5 yet were held to a draw (0–0). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Jose Suarez (4.7) and Luis Medina (3) the heaviest). LAA's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 7-0
Dylan Crews: .198 AVG vs .272 xBA
Dylan Crews's .198 average comes against a .272 expected (xBA) on 106 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .264 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PHI's bullpen has covered 14 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14 relief innings in 3 games, led by Max Lazar (3) and Tim Mayza (2). NYM's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-6
Shea Langeliers: .671 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Walbert Urena
Shea Langeliers's .671 OPS over the last 15 days (60 PA) trails his .854 season mark, down 0.183. Tonight he draws RHP Walbert Urena — his weaker side: a .783 OPS vs RHP across 215 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Ben Rice: .716 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Chase Burns
Ben Rice's .716 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .987 season mark, down 0.271. Tonight he draws RHP Chase Burns — his stronger side: a 1.052 OPS vs RHP across 177 AB.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
Stephen Kolek owns a 1.32 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 4.30 everywhere else
Across 4 games (27.3 IP) at this venue, Stephen Kolek has a 1.32 ERA against 4.30 at his other parks (23 IP). Hitters bat .216 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 1.2 IP, 9 ER, 0 K
Wandy Peralta: 1.96 ERA vs 4.2 xERA
Wandy Peralta carries a 1.96 ERA against a 4.2 expected ERA (2.24 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .233 off him vs a .251 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Riley Greene: .514 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Riley Greene's .514 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .810 season mark, down 0.296. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his stronger side: a .813 OPS vs RHP across 196 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
ARI's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.7 innings out of the pen — Drey Jameson (3.7) and Brandyn Garcia (2) carried the load. MIN's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 16-8
Saudi Arabia set up to contain
Confirmed XI: Saudi Arabia named 5 at the back with a lone striker vs Spain — a sheet built to absorb pressure and frustrate, not to chase the game. Lineups like this point to a low-event match: leans UNDER on total goals, and Saudi Arabia on the handicap / draw-no-bet carries value the reputation-priced line underrates.
Iran set up to contain
Confirmed XI: Iran named 5 at the back with a lone striker vs Belgium — a sheet built to absorb pressure and frustrate, not to chase the game. Lineups like this point to a low-event match: leans UNDER on total goals, and Iran on the handicap / draw-no-bet carries value the reputation-priced line underrates.
Spain rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Spain made 4 changes from their last match (Marcos Llorente, Ferran Torres, Fabián Ruiz… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on Saudi Arabia (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
Zack Gelof: .286 AVG vs .226 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .286 against a .226 expected average (xBA) over 222 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .366 against a .295 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
Mookie Betts: .217 AVG vs .276 xBA
Across 182 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .217 average versus a .276 xBA. His wOBA sits at .298 against a .336 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
Belgium rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Belgium made 4 changes from their last match (Timothy Castagne, Amadou Onana, Jérémy Doku… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on Iran (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
Bryce Harper vs David Peterson: .370
Bryce Harper's career line off David Peterson is 10-for-27, a .370 average over 27 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (.834 OPS, L15).
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
Japan rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Japan made 4 changes from their last match (Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Takefusa Kubo, Shogo Taniguchi… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on Tunisia (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
Spain are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Spain are -700 to win Group H — the shortest group-winner price on the day. The next side in Group H, Uruguay, is out at +550.
Nick Martinez: 2.6 ERA vs 4.5 xERA
Nick Martinez carries a 2.6 ERA against a 4.5 expected ERA (1.9 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .256 off him vs a .284 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Spain are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Spain carry the shortest price to reach the final at +260 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
Michael Lorenzen owns a 8.44 ERA at Coors Field — 6.05 everywhere else
Across 7 games (32 IP) at this venue, Michael Lorenzen has a 8.44 ERA against 6.05 at his other parks (38.7 IP). Hitters bat .373 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Uruguay's top scorer benched
Confirmed XI: Uruguay left D. Núñez (5 goals this cycle — their leading scorer) out of the XI. Their primary goal source isn't starting: fade Uruguay's team total and the over, while Cabo Verde's clean-sheet / defensive markets gain.
Portugal are slipping in Group K
Portugal, a +1000 title pick, sit 3rd in Group K on 1 point after 1 — outside the automatic places.
Tunisia changed keepers
Confirmed XI: Tunisia start Aymen Dahmen in goal — a different keeper than their last match (Abdelmouhib Chamakh). A switch between the sticks signals rotation or a fitness doubt; shot-stopping and set-piece command are the variables. Leans OVER and toward Japan's shots-on-target.
Group G is the tightest group-winner market
Group G's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Egypt and Belgium both priced inside +250.
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of NYM @ PHI
PHI games have produced a first-inning run in 8 of their last 10; NYM games in 8 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
Merrill Kelly: 5.81 ERA vs 7.5 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 5.81 ERA against a 7.5 expected ERA (1.69 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .280 vs .309 expected.
Freddie Freeman vs Trevor Rogers: .417
In 12 career at-bats against Trevor Rogers, Freddie Freeman is 5-for-12 for a 1.167 OPS (2 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.811 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
Canada created the better chances
Canada led the xG 4.6–0.2 and took the result to match (6–0).
Norway are the surest bet to advance
Norway are -10000 to escape their group out of Group I — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight
Conditions at Citizens Bank Park: Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 10 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 8 vs 9.5 (over lean)
Jarren Duran vs Logan Gilbert: .300
Jarren Duran's career line off Logan Gilbert is 3-for-10, a .300 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.492 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Luis Torrens (43% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Philadelphia Phillies attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 12 of 28 runners (43%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
Jake Bennett: 4.79 ERA vs 3.4 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 4.79 ERA against a 3.4 expected ERA (1.39 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .280 vs .242 expected.
New Zealand vs Egypt: the group picture
In Group G, New Zealand sit 3rd on 1 point and Egypt sit 4th on 1 point — three points reshape who advances. The market has it New Zealand +500 / the draw +310 / Egypt -175.
Emmet Sheehan's ERA drops to 4.01 at Dodger Stadium
Emmet Sheehan carries a 4.01 ERA over 7 games (33.7 IP) at tonight's park vs 5.58 across 30.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .234 off him here. He starts here tonight.
P 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Brice Turang vs Bryce Elder: .400
Brice Turang's career line off Bryce Elder is 4-for-10, a .400 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.673 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
Türkiye dominated the ball but didn't win
Türkiye held 79% of possession yet lost to Paraguay (0–1) — control without the cutting edge.
Tyler Phillips: 3.1 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 3.1 ERA against a 4.17 expected ERA (1.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .227 vs .235 expected.
Foster Griffin: 3.32 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 3.32 ERA against a 4.35 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .222 vs .249 expected.
Anthony Kay: 4.61 ERA vs 5.64 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 4.61 ERA against a 5.64 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .265 vs .279 expected.
Kerry Carpenter vs Davis Martin: .300
Kerry Carpenter has gone 3-for-10 (.300) across 10 career at-bats off Davis Martin, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.772 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
Zebby Matthews: 4.78 ERA vs 3.81 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 4.78 ERA against a 3.81 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .253 vs .238 expected.
Kumar Rocker: 4.17 ERA vs 5.08 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 4.17 ERA against a 5.08 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .250 vs .274 expected.
Belgium vs Iran: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
New Zealand vs Egypt: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
Spain vs Saudi Arabia: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
Nathan Eovaldi vs Manny Machado: 2-for-17, 5 K
Across 17 career at-bats, Manny Machado is just 2-for-17 against Nathan Eovaldi with 5 strikeouts and a .580 OPS. The rematch is tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
Riley Greene vs Davis Martin: .400
Riley Greene's career line off Davis Martin is 4-for-10, a .400 average over 10 at-bats — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.514 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
Draw +360
WC · 0-0
Under 2.5 -105
WC · 0-0
Cabo Verde +1.5 -160
WC · 2-2
Under 2.5 -155
WC · 2-2
Rockies ML +122
MLB · 1-2
Diamondbacks ML -134
MLB · 16-8
Angels ML +110
MLB · 7-0
Dodgers -1.5 -110
MLB · 3-2
Red Sox ML +110
MLB · 5-1
Egypt ML -175
WC · 3-1
Under 2.5 -125
WC · 3-1
Phillies ML -188
MLB · 2-6
Alec Bohm · over
Mets @ Phillies · Actual 1
Ayase Ueda · over
Japan @ Tunisia · Actual 2
Ben Rice · over
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 1
Bo Bichette · under
Mets @ Phillies · Actual 0
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 2
Byron Buxton · over
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 4
Carter Jensen · over
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 1
Christian Walker · over
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 0
Chris Wood · over
Egypt @ New Zealand · Actual 0
Colson Montgomery · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 0
Federico Valverde · over
Cabo Verde @ Uruguay · Actual 7
Hannibal Mejbri · over
Japan @ Tunisia · Actual 1
Jac Caglianone · over
Cardinals @ Royals · Actual 2
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 0
JJ Bleday · over
Reds @ Yankees · Actual 0
Jo Adell · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
Junior Caminero · over
Nationals @ Rays · Actual 0
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Cubs · Actual 0
Matt Olson · over
Brewers @ Braves · Actual 0
Max Muncy · over
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 0
Mookie Betts · over
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 1
Nick Kurtz · under
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 2
Nick Kurtz · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0
Omar Marmoush · under
Egypt @ New Zealand · Actual 3
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 0
Rob Refsnyder · under
Red Sox @ Mariners · Actual 0
Royce Lewis · under
Twins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
Ryan Ward · over
Orioles @ Dodgers · Actual 0
TJ Rumfield · over
Pirates @ Rockies · Actual 1
Vozinha · over
Cabo Verde @ Uruguay · Actual 0
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Mariners · Actual 1
Yordan Alvarez · over
Guardians @ Astros · Actual 0
Zack Gelof · over
Angels @ Athletics · Actual 0