Sports Picks Archive — Saturday, June 6, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· -134

A stiff fifteen-mile-per-hour breeze is blowing out to left field today at Comerica Park as the division-leading Seattle Mariners look to even the series against a surging Detroit Tigers squad. On paper, a game in Detroit usually suggests a low-scoring pitcher's duel, but today's environmental conditions completely flip that expectation. Keider Montero has been a serviceable arm for the Tigers, but he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.56 GO/AO ratio and severe hard-contact vulnerabilities, including an 8.7% Barrel% and a 42.6% Hard-Hit% allowed. With a double-digit wind blowing directly out to the shallow left-field corner, Montero's tendency to surrender loud contact in the air is a massive liability. Seattle's power bats are poised to exploit this matchup, especially Julio Rodriguez, who has historically dominated Montero, going 3-for-4 with a 427-foot home run, and Luke Raley, who boasts a home run in just three career at-bats against him. Conversely, Bryce Miller is the perfect pitcher to navigate a wind-aided afternoon. Miller has been sensational, posting a 1.71 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 1.94 xERA. His elite contact-suppression metrics—including a microscopic 3.6% Barrel% and a 25% Hard-Hit%—mean that Tigers hitters simply won't have many opportunities to lift squared-up balls into the jet stream. While Detroit’s lineup has been rolling with an impressive .436 xwOBA, a 44.0% Hard-Hit rate, and a 9.9% Barrel rate over the last three games compared to Seattle’s .376 xwOBA and 37.2% Hard-Hit rate, Miller’s unique reverse-platoon splits (.162 AVG and a .421 OPS allowed against lefties) are designed to completely neutralize the core of Detroit’s left-handed-heavy lineup. The strongest case against the Mariners is their heavily depleted state up the middle. With J.P. Crawford out with a hand injury, Cal Raleigh sidelined by an oblique strain, and key depth compromised, Seattle is forced to rely on a very young middle-infield tandem of Cole Young and Colt Emerson, alongside backup catcher Jhonny Pereda. However, Miller’s shutdown secondary stuff—highlighted by a slider with a 43.2% whiff rate and a splitter that has held opponents to a .103 xwOBA—is good enough to bypass defensive concerns entirely. Furthermore, while Detroit's bullpen is fatigued and missing injured closer Kenley Jansen, Seattle’s elite high-leverage arms are completely rested and available. At -134, the market is offering a highly reasonable price on a premier starting pitcher in a matchup where the environmental factors directly punish the opposing starter. Back the Mariners to halt the slide and square the series.

Conversely, Bryce Miller is the perfect pitcher to navigate a wind-aided afternoon. Miller has been sensational, posting a 1.71 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 1.94 xERA. His elite contact-suppression metrics—including a microscopic 3.6% Barrel% and a 25% Hard-Hit%—mean that Tigers hitters simply won't have many opportunities to lift squared-up balls into the jet stream. While Detroit’s lineup has been rolling with an impressive .436 xwOBA, a 44.0% Hard-Hit rate, and a 9.9% Barrel rate over the last three games compared to Seattle’s .376 xwOBA and 37.2% Hard-Hit rate, Miller’s unique reverse-platoon splits (.162 AVG and a .421 OPS allowed against lefties) are designed to completely neutralize the core of Detroit’s left-handed-heavy lineup.

The strongest case against the Mariners is their heavily depleted state up the middle. With J.P. Crawford out with a hand injury, Cal Raleigh sidelined by an oblique strain, and key depth compromised, Seattle is forced to rely on a very young middle-infield tandem of Cole Young and Colt Emerson, alongside backup catcher Jhonny Pereda. However, Miller’s shutdown secondary stuff—highlighted by a slider with a 43.2% whiff rate and a splitter that has held opponents to a .103 xwOBA—is good enough to bypass defensive concerns entirely. Furthermore, while Detroit's bullpen is fatigued and missing injured closer Kenley Jansen, Seattle’s elite high-leverage arms are completely rested and available. At -134, the market is offering a highly reasonable price on a premier starting pitcher in a matchup where the environmental factors directly punish the opposing starter. Back the Mariners to halt the slide and square the series.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -146

We have a beautiful sunny afternoon at Target Field as the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals prepare to battle in this AL Central matchup. The pitching mound features a massive contrast in stability and depth today, which will ultimately dictate the flow of this contest. I am backing the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline here. The starting pitching matchup is a stark mismatch in favor of Minnesota's Joe Ryan. Ryan has been an absolute anchor for the Twins, boasting a 3.20 ERA and an elite 0.97 WHIP over 70.1 innings of work. He enters this game in peak form, having completed at least six innings in five consecutive starts. Furthermore, his ability to neutralize batters from both sides of the plate makes him virtually platoon-proof, and he has historically dominated Kansas City’s superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., holding him to a .222 average. Conversely, the Royals are sending Luinder Avila to the mound, who functions more as a volatile opener than a traditional starter. Avila carries a 4.44 ERA and a bloated 1.71 WHIP, and he has a glaring weakness against left-handed hitting, allowing a massive .943 OPS to lefties. The Twins' lineup is tailor-made to exploit this vulnerability, starting multiple left-handed and switch-hitters at the top of the card. Additionally, the emotional and offensive boost of recalling Royce Lewis—who hit .333 with 10 home runs in his 15 minor league rehab games—completely offsets the doubtful status of Byron Buxton. The primary argument against Minnesota is their leaky bullpen, which has been highly volatile this season. However, Ryan's ability to pitch deep into games should minimize the exposure of the Twins' relief corps. The Royals' sluggish offense, which features the second-worst ISO in baseball over the last 14 days, is highly unlikely to build the kind of early pressure needed to chase Ryan from the game. Combined with the Royals' abysmal 10-22 road record, the Twins are in a perfect position to secure a decisive home victory.

I am backing the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline here. The starting pitching matchup is a stark mismatch in favor of Minnesota's Joe Ryan. Ryan has been an absolute anchor for the Twins, boasting a 3.20 ERA and an elite 0.97 WHIP over 70.1 innings of work. He enters this game in peak form, having completed at least six innings in five consecutive starts. Furthermore, his ability to neutralize batters from both sides of the plate makes him virtually platoon-proof, and he has historically dominated Kansas City’s superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., holding him to a .222 average.

Conversely, the Royals are sending Luinder Avila to the mound, who functions more as a volatile opener than a traditional starter. Avila carries a 4.44 ERA and a bloated 1.71 WHIP, and he has a glaring weakness against left-handed hitting, allowing a massive .943 OPS to lefties. The Twins' lineup is tailor-made to exploit this vulnerability, starting multiple left-handed and switch-hitters at the top of the card. Additionally, the emotional and offensive boost of recalling Royce Lewis—who hit .333 with 10 home runs in his 15 minor league rehab games—completely offsets the doubtful status of Byron Buxton.

The primary argument against Minnesota is their leaky bullpen, which has been highly volatile this season. However, Ryan's ability to pitch deep into games should minimize the exposure of the Twins' relief corps. The Royals' sluggish offense, which features the second-worst ISO in baseball over the last 14 days, is highly unlikely to build the kind of early pressure needed to chase Ryan from the game. Combined with the Royals' abysmal 10-22 road record, the Twins are in a perfect position to secure a decisive home victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -126

We have a hot, breezy afternoon in St. Louis as the Cardinals look to secure a series victory over their division rivals at a sun-drenched Busch Stadium. The Cardinals enter this matchup with strong wind at their backs after a convincing 10-3 win yesterday, and they have a clear pitching and situational edge today to keep that momentum rolling. On the mound, Matthew Liberatore is coming off his strongest start of the season—a scoreless 5.1-inning gem—and is finding his rhythm with an elite breaking ball mix featuring a curveball and slider that generate massive whiff rates of 48.7% and 36.5%, respectively. Although Cincinnati loaded their lineup with right-handed hitters to counter the left-handed starter, they've played right into Liberatore's hands, as he has held righties to a solid .715 OPS this season while heavily protecting his vulnerable left-handed splits. On the other side, Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is a statistical ticking time bomb. While his 5.20 ERA is already high, his xERA sits at an alarming 6.65, meaning his results are resting on a very fragile foundation. Lodolo's primary sinker is getting hammered to the tune of a .433 batting average and a .578 xwOBA, which has contributed to a dangerous 2.28 HR/9 rate this season. With 87°F temperatures thinning out the air and an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Lodolo's command issues and fly-ball tendencies are a recipe for disaster against power-hitting threats like Jordan Walker (15 HR) and Alec Burleson. The return of Lars Nootbaar to the top of the Cardinals' lineup further lengthens their offense, giving them a disciplined, high-OBP presence that can exploit Lodolo's high walk rate. The strongest argument against the Cardinals is that baseball is high-variance and the Reds' righty-heavy lineup has some individual home run potential. However, the Reds are short-handed and their bullpen is heavily depleted, missing key relief arms and relying on heavily taxed, high-ERA options. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' premier late-inning arms, including Riley O'Brien and George Soriano, are fully rested after yesterday's blowout. When you combine Liberatore's high-whiff breaking stuff against an aggressive Reds lineup, Lodolo's home run vulnerability in a high-temperature game with wind blowing out, and the vastly superior bullpen of the home team, St. Louis at -126 is an exceptionally strong value. Back the Cardinals to take this game on the moneyline.

On the other side, Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is a statistical ticking time bomb. While his 5.20 ERA is already high, his xERA sits at an alarming 6.65, meaning his results are resting on a very fragile foundation. Lodolo's primary sinker is getting hammered to the tune of a .433 batting average and a .578 xwOBA, which has contributed to a dangerous 2.28 HR/9 rate this season. With 87°F temperatures thinning out the air and an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Lodolo's command issues and fly-ball tendencies are a recipe for disaster against power-hitting threats like Jordan Walker (15 HR) and Alec Burleson. The return of Lars Nootbaar to the top of the Cardinals' lineup further lengthens their offense, giving them a disciplined, high-OBP presence that can exploit Lodolo's high walk rate.

The strongest argument against the Cardinals is that baseball is high-variance and the Reds' righty-heavy lineup has some individual home run potential. However, the Reds are short-handed and their bullpen is heavily depleted, missing key relief arms and relying on heavily taxed, high-ERA options. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' premier late-inning arms, including Riley O'Brien and George Soriano, are fully rested after yesterday's blowout. When you combine Liberatore's high-whiff breaking stuff against an aggressive Reds lineup, Lodolo's home run vulnerability in a high-temperature game with wind blowing out, and the vastly superior bullpen of the home team, St. Louis at -126 is an exceptionally strong value. Back the Cardinals to take this game on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· +126

Under the partly cloudy skies of Wrigley Field, a classic afternoon matchup unfolds as the Cubs try to salvage their pride against a surging Giants squad. While the public is heavily backing the Cubs as a home favorite behind the shiny 1.92 ERA of Ben Brown, the market is overpaying for a fragile number here. Brown has pitched beautifully, but his 2.93 xERA indicates some looming regression, especially with a high 42.4% hard-hit rate that will test the boundaries of a Wrigley outfield missing defensive quarterback Dansby Swanson. On the other side, Landen Roupp’s 4.22 ERA is highly deceptive; his elite 3.3 xERA, 2.9% barrel rate, and 30% hard-hit rate show he has been incredibly unlucky. In a single-game sample, this pitching matchup is a virtual coin flip, which immediately makes the Giants at +126 moneyline the clear value play. The situational edges heavily favor San Francisco. The Giants are stack-heavy with five left-handed hitters to attack Brown's primary platoon vulnerability, where his OPS allowed climbs to .521 against lefties compared to .394 against righties. Meanwhile, Chicago is dealing with a complete bullpen crisis. After getting routed 18-3 yesterday, the Cubs had to burn six relievers for 166 total pitches, leaving their already-injured bullpen entirely depleted. Conversely, the Giants protected their leverage arms, using only two pitchers yesterday for a combined 57 pitches. This means San Francisco has a completely fresh late-inning arsenal, including Keaton Winn with his 2.30 ERA, while Chicago is running on empty if Brown cannot deliver a deep outing. The strongest argument against the Giants is that the 9 mph wind blowing in from center field will suppress their recent power surge—such as Casey Schmitt's two-homer performance or Matt Chapman's 8-RBI explosion yesterday. However, the Giants' offense does not rely solely on the long ball; contact specialists like Luis Arraez (.326 AVG) and Jung Hoo Lee (.321 AVG) are perfectly suited to manufacture runs through small ball. Given that the Giants have won six consecutive head-to-head meetings against the Cubs by a dominant 56-17 margin, they hold a massive psychological edge over a reeling Chicago team that has suffered 19 losses in its last 25 games. Grab the Giants at a premium price to complete another victory.

The situational edges heavily favor San Francisco. The Giants are stack-heavy with five left-handed hitters to attack Brown's primary platoon vulnerability, where his OPS allowed climbs to .521 against lefties compared to .394 against righties. Meanwhile, Chicago is dealing with a complete bullpen crisis. After getting routed 18-3 yesterday, the Cubs had to burn six relievers for 166 total pitches, leaving their already-injured bullpen entirely depleted. Conversely, the Giants protected their leverage arms, using only two pitchers yesterday for a combined 57 pitches. This means San Francisco has a completely fresh late-inning arsenal, including Keaton Winn with his 2.30 ERA, while Chicago is running on empty if Brown cannot deliver a deep outing.

The strongest argument against the Giants is that the 9 mph wind blowing in from center field will suppress their recent power surge—such as Casey Schmitt's two-homer performance or Matt Chapman's 8-RBI explosion yesterday. However, the Giants' offense does not rely solely on the long ball; contact specialists like Luis Arraez (.326 AVG) and Jung Hoo Lee (.321 AVG) are perfectly suited to manufacture runs through small ball. Given that the Giants have won six consecutive head-to-head meetings against the Cubs by a dominant 56-17 margin, they hold a massive psychological edge over a reeling Chicago team that has suffered 19 losses in its last 25 games. Grab the Giants at a premium price to complete another victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· -106

It's a beautiful afternoon under the closed dome at the Rogers Centre as the Baltimore Orioles look to keep their bats blazing against the Toronto Blue Jays in a high-stakes battle for third place in the AL East. The market has priced this game as a near pick'em, which feels like a major overvaluation of a fatigued and depleted Toronto squad. While the Blue Jays will start with a clean frame from opener Braydon Fisher, the bulk of this game falls onto the shoulders of Spencer Miles, who was absolutely shelled by this exact Baltimore lineup just six days ago on May 31, allowing six earned runs in only three innings. The Orioles' core of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Pete Alonso has fresh, dominant familiarity against Miles, and they come in red-hot after a massive thirteen-run explosion in the series opener. The strongest case against Baltimore is Kyle Bradish's underlying metrics and his extreme reverse platoon splits. Bradish sports a 3.44 ERA but a 4.03 xERA, indicating the market is paying for a somewhat fragile number, especially given his .295 AVG and .822 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Toronto's righty-heavy lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.320 AVG at home) and Ernie Clement (.303 AVG) is theoretically positioned to make him work. However, Bradish's recent form is spectacular, boasting a 1.72 ERA over his last five starts, showing he is currently pitching in peak flow. Furthermore, the environment of a closed dome neutralizes weather-related chaos, allowing Bradish to command his high-movement slider and sinker with precision. Behind Bradish, the relief matchup is heavily skewed in Baltimore's favor. Toronto is running a taxing bullpen game with key high-leverage arms highly fatigued and fourteen players on the injured list, including star center fielder Daulton Varsho who is out today with wrist discomfort. On the other hand, the Orioles feature a highly rested backend led by Rico Garcia, who has been sensational with a 0.68 ERA and 0.61 WHIP. While Baltimore is missing Samuel Basallo, their overall roster health and late-inning bullpen advantages are far more stable. Expect the Orioles to solve Miles in the middle innings and ride their rested bullpen to a second straight victory.

The strongest case against Baltimore is Kyle Bradish's underlying metrics and his extreme reverse platoon splits. Bradish sports a 3.44 ERA but a 4.03 xERA, indicating the market is paying for a somewhat fragile number, especially given his .295 AVG and .822 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Toronto's righty-heavy lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.320 AVG at home) and Ernie Clement (.303 AVG) is theoretically positioned to make him work. However, Bradish's recent form is spectacular, boasting a 1.72 ERA over his last five starts, showing he is currently pitching in peak flow. Furthermore, the environment of a closed dome neutralizes weather-related chaos, allowing Bradish to command his high-movement slider and sinker with precision.

Behind Bradish, the relief matchup is heavily skewed in Baltimore's favor. Toronto is running a taxing bullpen game with key high-leverage arms highly fatigued and fourteen players on the injured list, including star center fielder Daulton Varsho who is out today with wrist discomfort. On the other hand, the Orioles feature a highly rested backend led by Rico Garcia, who has been sensational with a 0.68 ERA and 0.61 WHIP. While Baltimore is missing Samuel Basallo, their overall roster health and late-inning bullpen advantages are far more stable. Expect the Orioles to solve Miles in the middle innings and ride their rested bullpen to a second straight victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +116

Citizens Bank Park welcomes a hot summer afternoon as the surging Philadelphia Phillies host the surprise Chicago White Sox in a cross-conference clash. While the home team is riding high on a four-game winning streak, the pitching matchup and environmental conditions make the visitors a highly attractive underdog play. The load-bearing reason to back Chicago in this spot is the matchup between Andrew Painter and these specific game conditions. Painter is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.57 GO/AO) who allows a high 9.2% barrel rate and has struggled recently, surrendering six home runs over his last five starts—including a blowout where he gave up three homers and eight earned runs in just 3.2 innings. Today, the game-time temperature is a sizzling 93 degrees with a 13 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, creating an environment where Painter’s fly-ball tendencies are a massive liability. Furthermore, Painter has struggled against righties, allowing a bloated .901 OPS, which right-handed bats like Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, and yesterday's two-home-run hero Randal Grichuk are primed to exploit. On the other side of the ledger, the White Sox are deploying a highly tactical pitching committee. Brandon Eisert will open the game, which is a brilliant strategic move to neutralize Bryce Harper early—whose OPS drops dramatically from .993 against righties to .697 against lefties. Eisert will then hand the ball to bulk-follower Sean Burke, who has been highly effective at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only two home runs in his last 25.2 innings while striking out 28 batters over his last five starts. While the Phillies’ lineup is extremely dangerous and their bullpen is anchored by the lights-out Jhoan Duran, getting to Duran requires holding a lead. With Painter starting in these weather conditions, the Phillies are highly vulnerable in the early frames. When evaluating the betting line, the Phillies are priced as -134 home favorites. This price is heavily inflated by Philadelphia’s recent 25-10 run under Mattingly and their overall home reputation, but the market is paying for a fragile situation. While Painter’s 5.74 ERA is slightly worse than his 4.75 xERA, even his luck-adjusted numbers are well below league average and highly suspect in this extreme heat. By contrast, Eisert's 3.55 ERA is backed by a superb 3.28 xERA, suggesting the White Sox's opening plan is built on very solid ground. Taking the White Sox moneyline at +116 offers tremendous value against a struggling starter in the worst possible park and weather context for his pitching profile.

On the other side of the ledger, the White Sox are deploying a highly tactical pitching committee. Brandon Eisert will open the game, which is a brilliant strategic move to neutralize Bryce Harper early—whose OPS drops dramatically from .993 against righties to .697 against lefties. Eisert will then hand the ball to bulk-follower Sean Burke, who has been highly effective at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only two home runs in his last 25.2 innings while striking out 28 batters over his last five starts. While the Phillies’ lineup is extremely dangerous and their bullpen is anchored by the lights-out Jhoan Duran, getting to Duran requires holding a lead. With Painter starting in these weather conditions, the Phillies are highly vulnerable in the early frames.

When evaluating the betting line, the Phillies are priced as -134 home favorites. This price is heavily inflated by Philadelphia’s recent 25-10 run under Mattingly and their overall home reputation, but the market is paying for a fragile situation. While Painter’s 5.74 ERA is slightly worse than his 4.75 xERA, even his luck-adjusted numbers are well below league average and highly suspect in this extreme heat. By contrast, Eisert's 3.55 ERA is backed by a superb 3.28 xERA, suggesting the White Sox's opening plan is built on very solid ground. Taking the White Sox moneyline at +116 offers tremendous value against a struggling starter in the worst possible park and weather context for his pitching profile.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· -104

The afternoon sun beats down on Truist Park as the surging Pittsburgh Pirates look to even the series against an Atlanta Braves squad navigating sudden roster turbulence. This matchup features an elite starting pitching clash on paper, but the tactical advantages heavily tilt toward the visiting underdogs. While Spencer Strider represents a premium name, his recent efficiency is a major concern compared to the stellar run of Braxton Ashcraft. Over his last five starts, Ashcraft has been virtually untouchable with a 2.45 ERA and an elite 36-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 33.0 innings. Meanwhile, Strider has struggled to find his classic rhythm, walking 12 batters in his last 27.2 innings and failing to complete six frames in four of his last five starts. The physical toll of today's 87°F heat will put a premium on starting pitcher stamina, and Ashcraft has shown the far superior length of late. Furthermore, Strider’s pronounced platoon vulnerability—allowing a high .808 OPS to left-handed hitters—is directly targeted by a Pirates lineup stacking seven left-handed or switch-hitters in their top eight slots. The Braves are also reeling from a sudden defensive and depth crisis. The fresh absence of center fielder Michael Harris II due to back tightness forces Mauricio Dubon out of his natural infield element, while injuries to Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin leave Atlanta starting third-string catcher Austin Wynns. Wynns has struggled severely behind the plate, throwing out just 18% of base stealers, which should allow the Pirates' speed elements to run wild. To be sure, backing Pittsburgh means facing a historically elite Atlanta bullpen featuring Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez, and doing so without Marcell Ozuna in the Pirates' starting lineup. But Strider's career 5.65 ERA against Pittsburgh suggests the Pirates have his number, and they are built to build an early lead before the late-inning relievers can interfere. With professional money collapsing this line from Braves -152 all the way down to -112, the value lies entirely with the Pirates.

While Spencer Strider represents a premium name, his recent efficiency is a major concern compared to the stellar run of Braxton Ashcraft. Over his last five starts, Ashcraft has been virtually untouchable with a 2.45 ERA and an elite 36-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 33.0 innings. Meanwhile, Strider has struggled to find his classic rhythm, walking 12 batters in his last 27.2 innings and failing to complete six frames in four of his last five starts. The physical toll of today's 87°F heat will put a premium on starting pitcher stamina, and Ashcraft has shown the far superior length of late. Furthermore, Strider’s pronounced platoon vulnerability—allowing a high .808 OPS to left-handed hitters—is directly targeted by a Pirates lineup stacking seven left-handed or switch-hitters in their top eight slots.

The Braves are also reeling from a sudden defensive and depth crisis. The fresh absence of center fielder Michael Harris II due to back tightness forces Mauricio Dubon out of his natural infield element, while injuries to Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin leave Atlanta starting third-string catcher Austin Wynns. Wynns has struggled severely behind the plate, throwing out just 18% of base stealers, which should allow the Pirates' speed elements to run wild. To be sure, backing Pittsburgh means facing a historically elite Atlanta bullpen featuring Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez, and doing so without Marcell Ozuna in the Pirates' starting lineup. But Strider's career 5.65 ERA against Pittsburgh suggests the Pirates have his number, and they are built to build an early lead before the late-inning relievers can interfere. With professional money collapsing this line from Braves -152 all the way down to -112, the value lies entirely with the Pirates.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -134

Good afternoon from Miami, where the roof is closed and the temperature is a pristine 72 degrees inside loanDepot park as the Tampa Bay Rays look to clinch a series victory over the Miami Marlins. The clear focal point of this afternoon's matchup is the stark discrepancy on the mound. Tampa Bay rolls out its premier ace Shane McClanahan, who is pitching at an All-Star level with a 6-2 record and a 2.45 ERA, having allowed one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The market price of -134 is remarkably soft here because McClanahan’s xERA of 3.60 suggests some regression, meaning the public might be slightly overpaying for a fragile surface number. However, even with his expected metrics factored in, McClanahan remains a dominant, elite southpaw facing a Miami squad that has been completely lost against left-handed starters, posting a miserable 3-14 record against them this season. To make matters worse for the Marlins, they are forced to counter with Lake Bachar in a desperate bullpen game. While Bachar has electric swing-and-miss stuff—including a sweeper generating a 45.5% whiff rate—he rarely goes beyond three innings, which means Miami will need to cover at least six frames with their relief staff. That plan is highly compromised because their top long-relief weapon, Tyler Phillips, was burned for 82 pitches yesterday and is physically unavailable today. With Miami’s starting rotation decimated by injuries to Eury Perez, Janson Junk, Robby Snelling, and Adam Mazur, they are simply running out of high-leverage arms to bridge the gap to closer Pete Fairbanks. The strongest argument for the Marlins lies in their spectacular 11-3 record in afternoon home games, alongside the presence of "lefty killers" Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards, who carry a .468 batting average and a .957 OPS against southpaws, respectively. Yet, outside of those two, the Marlins’ lineup severely lacks power and is starting backup catcher Joe Mack, a defensive liability with three passed balls. Conversely, the Rays' bullpen is completely rested after Drew Rasmussen threw seven dominant frames yesterday, meaning high-leverage arms like Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly are primed to shut the door. Backed by Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, the deeper, healthier, and highly motivated Rays are the clear choice to secure the win today.

To make matters worse for the Marlins, they are forced to counter with Lake Bachar in a desperate bullpen game. While Bachar has electric swing-and-miss stuff—including a sweeper generating a 45.5% whiff rate—he rarely goes beyond three innings, which means Miami will need to cover at least six frames with their relief staff. That plan is highly compromised because their top long-relief weapon, Tyler Phillips, was burned for 82 pitches yesterday and is physically unavailable today. With Miami’s starting rotation decimated by injuries to Eury Perez, Janson Junk, Robby Snelling, and Adam Mazur, they are simply running out of high-leverage arms to bridge the gap to closer Pete Fairbanks.

The strongest argument for the Marlins lies in their spectacular 11-3 record in afternoon home games, alongside the presence of "lefty killers" Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards, who carry a .468 batting average and a .957 OPS against southpaws, respectively. Yet, outside of those two, the Marlins’ lineup severely lacks power and is starting backup catcher Joe Mack, a defensive liability with three passed balls. Conversely, the Rays' bullpen is completely rested after Drew Rasmussen threw seven dominant frames yesterday, meaning high-leverage arms like Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly are primed to shut the door. Backed by Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, the deeper, healthier, and highly motivated Rays are the clear choice to secure the win today.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Astros· +102

We are live from Daikin Park as the Houston Astros host the Oakland Athletics in a pivotal American League West matchup, where a rookie's debut meets a volatile veteran on the mound. The Oakland Athletics (30-33) look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-1 loss, and they represent incredible value as road underdogs (+102) in this spot. The defining edge for this game lies in the bullpen dynamics. Yesterday, Houston had to utilize their high-leverage trio of Enyel De Los Santos (1.2 IP), Bryan King (1.0 IP), and Josh Hader (1.0 IP) to secure their win. In contrast, Oakland preserved their high-leverage arms, keeping Hogan Harris (2.48 ERA) and Scott Barlow (3.54 ERA) completely unused. This leaves Houston’s late-inning options extremely vulnerable, especially if they must turn to struggling arms like Bryan Abreu (7.52 ERA, 2.02 WHIP), while Oakland is armed with a rested relief crew to protect a lead. The mismatch between Oakland's left-handed hitters and Astros starter Tatsuya Imai (2-3, 5.52 ERA) will likely force an early bullpen game for Houston. Imai has struggled immensely with control, issuing 17 walks over his last 20.1 innings, and his 5.28 xERA shows his vulnerability to the big inning. Crucially, Imai struggles against left-handed batters, yielding a .780 OPS and four of his five home runs to the platoon. Oakland’s lineup features two high-impact lefties who are primed to exploit this weakness: rookie Nick Kurtz, who boasts a 1.007 OPS against right-handed pitching and an elite .475 batting average with runners in scoring position, and Carlos Cortes, who hits .301 with a .870 OPS against righties. This platoon advantage, combined with Imai's high walk rate, should lead to sustained run scoring opportunities for Oakland's offense. The primary case against Oakland is the uncertainty of starter Kade Morris making his Major League debut on the road against Yordan Alvarez (.316 AVG, 21 HR) and a surging Isaac Paredes. Alvarez's 1.171 home OPS and .557 xwOBA against four-seamers represent a major test. However, Morris is highly polished, featuring a 96.2 mph fastball and a 95.5 mph sinker that support his strong 3.33 projected xERA. Several key Astros right-handers struggle against righty pitching, including Jeremy Peña with a .742 OPS and Christian Walker with an .826 OPS. Oakland’s road resilience (19-16 on the road compared to Houston's 15-18 at home) and superior team bullpen situation make the Athletics the smart, high-value pick to take down this series middle game.

The mismatch between Oakland's left-handed hitters and Astros starter Tatsuya Imai (2-3, 5.52 ERA) will likely force an early bullpen game for Houston. Imai has struggled immensely with control, issuing 17 walks over his last 20.1 innings, and his 5.28 xERA shows his vulnerability to the big inning. Crucially, Imai struggles against left-handed batters, yielding a .780 OPS and four of his five home runs to the platoon. Oakland’s lineup features two high-impact lefties who are primed to exploit this weakness: rookie Nick Kurtz, who boasts a 1.007 OPS against right-handed pitching and an elite .475 batting average with runners in scoring position, and Carlos Cortes, who hits .301 with a .870 OPS against righties. This platoon advantage, combined with Imai's high walk rate, should lead to sustained run scoring opportunities for Oakland's offense.

The primary case against Oakland is the uncertainty of starter Kade Morris making his Major League debut on the road against Yordan Alvarez (.316 AVG, 21 HR) and a surging Isaac Paredes. Alvarez's 1.171 home OPS and .557 xwOBA against four-seamers represent a major test. However, Morris is highly polished, featuring a 96.2 mph fastball and a 95.5 mph sinker that support his strong 3.33 projected xERA. Several key Astros right-handers struggle against righty pitching, including Jeremy Peña with a .742 OPS and Christian Walker with an .826 OPS. Oakland’s road resilience (19-16 on the road compared to Houston's 15-18 at home) and superior team bullpen situation make the Athletics the smart, high-value pick to take down this series middle game.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

THE LONG SHOT

LUKE RALEYHR OVER 0.5

MLBMariners· +340

Luke Raley is the Mariners' premier power threat against right-handed starters, with all 13 of his home runs this season coming against RHP, supported by a .919 OPS in those matchups. He faces Keider Montero, whose 0.56 GO/AO ratio indicates he is one of the most fly-ball-prone starters in the league. Montero's platoon splits further favor this pick, as he has surrendered 5 of his 7 home runs this season to left-handed hitters like Raley. The environmental conditions at Comerica Park provide a significant boost, with 15 mph winds blowing directly out toward left field, which will assist fly balls in carrying. Given Raley's high barrel rate and Montero's tendency to allow fly balls to lefties, the probability of Raley clearing the fence exceeds the 22.7% implied by the +340 odds.

THE LONG SHOT

DOMINIC CANZONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMariners· +340

Dominic Canzone offers a secondary play on the matchup against Keider Montero's fly-ball tendencies. Canzone has hit all 7 of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching and enters this contest with momentum, having recorded a home run and a multi-hit game within his last five appearances. Like Raley, Canzone is a left-handed hitter poised to exploit Montero's specific vulnerability to the long ball from the left side (5 HR allowed to LHB in 127 AB). Montero's elevated Hard-hit rate (42.6%) and Barrel rate (8.7%) suggest that when contact is made, it is often damaging. With the 15 mph wind blowing out to left field at Comerica Park, Canzone’s ability to drive the ball to the gaps makes him a strong candidate to capitalize on a mistake pitch from a starter who allows a high volume of fly balls.

GARY'S PICK

KERRY CARPENTERTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBTigers· -150

While Kerry Carpenter is a primary power source for Detroit, he faces a significant tactical disadvantage against Bryce Miller. Miller has been elite at neutralizing left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a meager .162 batting average and a .421 OPS while allowing zero home runs in 37 at-bats. Miller's ability to suppress quality contact is evidenced by his 3.6% Barrel rate and 25% Hard-Hit rate, making it extremely difficult for hitters to find the extra-base hits required to clear this line. Historically, Carpenter has struggled in this specific head-to-head matchup, managing just one hit in seven career plate appearances against Miller while striking out three times. Miller's 0.86 WHIP further limits Carpenter's opportunities by reducing the overall number of baserunners and potential plate appearances for the Tigers' middle order. Despite Carpenter hitting a home run in the series opener, the shift to facing Miller's specific pitch profile and LHB-dominant splits makes the under the more probable side.

GARY'S PICK

JULIO RODRIGUEZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMariners· +101

Julio Rodriguez enters this matchup with both a historical and environmental edge. Against Tigers starter Keider Montero, Rodriguez has been exceptionally productive, posting a 3-for-4 line that includes both a home run and a double. This success aligns with Montero's underlying vulnerabilities; despite a respectable 3.69 ERA, Montero is allowing a high 42.6% Hard-Hit rate and an 8.7% Barrel rate, suggesting he is prone to giving up extra-base hits. Rodriguez has rediscovered his power recently, hitting 4 home runs over his last 10 games. The weather conditions further amplify this outlook, as a 15 mph wind blowing directly out to left field favors Rodriguez's ability to drive the ball into the gaps or over the wall at Comerica Park. Given his top-of-the-order volume and favorable matchup history, clearing two total bases is a high-probability outcome.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONEHITS OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +340

Jac Caglianone enters this matchup as the Royals' most productive recent hitter, slashing .306 over his last 10 games with three multi-hit performances in his last five outings. While Joe Ryan is a formidable opponent with a 0.97 WHIP, Caglianone has demonstrated success in their head-to-head encounters. Batting 5th in the order, Caglianone is positioned to see a high volume of plate appearances (4-5), giving him multiple opportunities to clear a hit line that he has surpassed with much greater frequency recently than the 23% probability implied by the +340 odds. His ability to produce against right-handed pitching (.266 season AVG) and his current hot streak make this an high-value outlier pick.

GARY'S PICK

ISAAC COLLINSH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +280

Isaac Collins provides a value opportunity in the 'hits_runs_rbis' market due to his platoon split and situational positioning. As a switch-hitter, Collins is more effective from the left side against right-handed starters like Joe Ryan, batting .235 compared to .179 vs lefties. He has also shown comfort at Target Field, posting a .333 average in his appearances there. Clearing a 1.5 HRR line is highly achievable for Collins, as it requires only a multi-hit game or a single hit combined with a run scored or an RBI. Given that he bats behind high-OBP threats like Jac Caglianone and Michael Massey, the probability of Collins contributing to a run or recording an RBI is higher than his modest season average suggests, especially at a price that only requires him to hit the mark roughly once every four games.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHITS OVER 0.5

MLBCubs· -190

Pete Crow-Armstrong enters this game as the hottest hitter in the Cubs' lineup, carrying a 10-game hitting streak with a .366 average over that span. His matchup against Landen Roupp is statistically favorable due to pitch-type convergence: Roupp relies on his sinker 37.2% of the time, and Crow-Armstrong has shredded that specific pitch this season to the tune of a .444 batting average. As the leadoff hitter, PCA is guaranteed the highest volume of plate appearances to secure a single hit. The risk is Roupp's curveball, which has a 46.7% whiff rate, but PCA's elite performance against the primary sinker provides a high floor for contact.

GARY'S PICK

BEN BROWNK'S OVER 5.5

MLBCubs· -115

Ben Brown has emerged as a high-upside strikeout threat, recording 53 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. His success is driven by a knuckle curve that generates a massive 54.4% whiff rate, a pitch that should prove effective against Giants hitters like Rafael Devers (14 K in last 10 games) and Casey Schmitt. Brown has surpassed this 5.5 strikeout line in 80% of his last five starts. Weather conditions also support the over; with wind blowing in from center field at 9 mph, the scoring environment is suppressed, typically allowing starting pitchers to work deeper into the game and accumulate more strikeouts. The primary risk is the Giants' high-contact performance yesterday (only 3 total team strikeouts), but Brown's elite whiff metrics suggest he can overcome a contact-oriented approach.

GARY'S PICK

TAYLOR WARDH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBOrioles· -116

Taylor Ward has established a remarkably high floor as the leadoff hitter for an Orioles offense that currently leads the division in scoring over the last 10 games (6.4 R/G). Ward has surpassed this 1.5 HRR line in 7 of his last 10 games, frequently contributing through both multi-hit performances (two 3-hit games in his last five) and his ability to score runs (39 on the season). Today's matchup against a Toronto bullpen game is particularly favorable; the bulk reliever, Spencer Miles, was tagged for 6 runs by Baltimore just last week. Ward also benefits from a positive day-game split (.264 AVG), making him a more reliable high-volume target than teammates like Adley Rutschman who struggle in the sun.

GARY'S PICK

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBlue Jays· +126

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters this afternoon as one of the best situational values on the board. While his season-long OPS (.771) is middle-of-the-road for his standards, he is a 'day game' specialist this season, batting .353 with a .536 slugging percentage in 3:00 PM starts. He faces Kyle Bradish, a pitcher who has struggled significantly away from home (5.32 road ERA) and specifically against right-handed hitters like Guerrero (.295 AVG allowed). Guerrero's career success against Bradish (.316) and his recent form (.359 AVG over his last 10 games) suggest he is primed to clear this 1.5 total bases line, which he has done in 6 of his last 10 outings.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE SCHWARBERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPhillies· +106

Kyle Schwarber enters this matchup in elite form, leading the major leagues in home runs and hitting .342 over his last ten games. His production at Citizens Bank Park is significantly higher than on the road, supported by a 1.095 home OPS. The environmental factors today create a massive edge for a fly-ball power hitter; with the temperature in the 90s and a stiff wind blowing straight out to center, any ball elevated by Schwarber has a vastly increased probability of clearing the fence. He faces an opener followed by Sean Burke, a right-handed bulk reliever. Schwarber has hit 16 of his 23 home runs against right-handed pitching this year. The risk is his high walk rate, which can limit official at-bat opportunities, but his current aggressiveness (including a 4-hit game yesterday) suggests he is looking to drive the ball.

GARY'S PICK

COLSON MONTGOMERYTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBWhite Sox· +117

Colson Montgomery is uniquely positioned to exploit the weaknesses of Phillies starter Andrew Painter. Painter has struggled with a 5.74 ERA and is particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .305 average against them. Crucially, Painter is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.57 ground-ball to fly-ball ratio) with a high barrel rate (9.2%). In the current weather conditions—high heat and wind blowing out—this pitching profile is highly dangerous. Montgomery provides significant left-handed power (15 HR) and hits in the middle of a White Sox lineup that has averaged 6.1 runs per game over their last 10. The risk is Montgomery's high strikeout rate, but the favorable matchup against a struggling fly-ball pitcher in these conditions makes the over on total bases a high-value play.

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBraves· -108

Matt Olson is the focal point of a Braves offense that is currently on a power surge, having homered in eight consecutive games. Olson himself is in peak form, batting .317 over his last 10 outings. The matchup against Braxton Ashcraft favors Olson's power profile; while Ashcraft has been excellent overall, he has shown a clear vulnerability to left-handed power, surrendering five of his seven home runs this year to lefties in only 143 at-bats. Olson’s elite .946 OPS against right-handed pitching and his position in the heart of the order (3rd) provide ample opportunity for him to accumulate hits, runs, and RBIs in a high-scoring environment. He has cleared this 1.5 line in three of his last four games, totaling 14 HRR in those three contests.

GARY'S PICK

HA-SEONG KIMTOTAL BASES UNDER 0.5

MLBBraves· -103

Ha-Seong Kim has struggled significantly in the 2026 campaign, managing just five hits in 49 at-bats for a .102 average. He faces a difficult matchup against Braxton Ashcraft, who has stifled right-handed hitters all season, holding them to a meager .560 OPS and .219 batting average. Batting in the ninth spot, Kim’s volume will be restricted, likely seeing only three plate appearances against a starter who has pitched at least six innings in nine of his 12 starts. Given that Kim has failed to record a single total base in four of his last five games, the statistical probability of him remaining hitless is significantly higher than the implied odds suggest.

GARY'S PICK

SHANE MCCLANAHANK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBRays· -145

Shane McClanahan remains one of the most effective starters in the league, but his strikeout volume is currently being capped by strict workload management. This season, McClanahan has averaged exactly 5.0 innings per start, and he has not pitched into the 6th inning in any of his last five outings. At his recent rate of 0.90 strikeouts per inning, McClanahan would realistically need to pitch into the 7th inning (roughly 20 outs) to consistently clear a 5.5-strikeout threshold. He has recorded 5 or fewer strikeouts in three of his last five starts. While the Marlins offense has struggled, McClanahan's consistent exit after 5.0-5.2 innings (15-17 outs) provides a narrow window for him to rack up six strikeouts, making the under the statistically superior play.

GARY'S PICK

JONATHAN ARANDATOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRays· +140

Jonathan Aranda enters this matchup with a significant tactical advantage against Marlins starter Lake Bachar. Bachar has shown a pronounced platoon split this season, allowing nearly double the batting average to left-handed hitters (.207) as he does to right-handed hitters (.132). Aranda, a left-handed hitter batting second in the Rays' order, is ideally positioned to exploit this vulnerability. Furthermore, Bachar allows a 44.2% hard-hit rate and a low 0.66 GO/AO ratio, creating an environment conducive to extra-base hits for a fly-ball power threat like Aranda. Despite a brief recent cooling period, Aranda has cleared 1.5 total bases in 60% of his last ten games, significantly outperforming the 42% implied probability of the +140 line. Facing a pitcher who struggles against lefties and surrenders high-quality contact, Aranda is well-positioned to record multiple bases.

GARY'S PICK

JEREMY PENAHITS OVER 0.5

MLBAstros· -220

Jeremy Pena is currently the most consistent contact hitter in the Astros' lineup, having recorded at least one hit in 9 of his last 10 games. Over this stretch, he is batting .421 (16-for-38) and has seen his season average climb to .308. Pena is confirmed to be batting leadoff for Houston, which maximizes his plate appearance opportunities against Kade Morris, an Athletics rookie making his MLB debut. Morris enters this game after posting a 4.45 ERA in Triple-A, a level where he did not display the dominance typically required to shut down elite MLB leadoff hitters. Given the Astros' potent top-of-the-order (featuring Alvarez and Walker behind him), Pena should see plenty of strikes and continue his high-efficiency contact run. The primary risk is facing an unfamiliar pitcher for the first time, but Pena's current contact rates suggest he can adapt quickly.

GARY'S PICK

HENRY BOLTEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBAthletics· -175

Henry Bolte has been the standout performer for an otherwise struggling Oakland offense, hitting .353 over his last seven days. He enters today’s game coming off a three-hit performance in the series opener on Friday. Bolte faces Astros starter Tatsuya Imai, who has struggled significantly in 2026 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Most importantly for a contact prop, Imai allows a high volume of hard contact, evidenced by his 48% Hard-hit rate and 9.3% Barrel rate. Bolte has recorded at least one hit in 7 of his last 10 games and is currently on a three-game hitting streak. Imai's tendency to allow baserunners and his vulnerability to hard-hit balls create a favorable environment for Bolte to extend his streak. The main risk is Bolte's strikeout rate, but Imai's high WHIP and hard-hit profile mitigate this concern.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhillies· +205

Kyle Schwarber is currently the most prolific power hitter in baseball, leading the majors with 23 home runs through 60 games. He enters this matchup in peak form, batting .342 over his last 10 games, including a four-hit performance in yesterday's series opener. The environmental conditions at Citizens Bank Park today are nearly perfect for power: 93-degree heat and a 13-mph wind blowing directly out to center field. As the leadoff hitter, Schwarber is guaranteed maximum plate appearances, increasing his opportunities to capitalize on the weather and his current hot streak. While he faces a left-handed opener in Brandon Eisert, the White Sox are expected to transition to right-hander Sean Burke, and Schwarber's .957 season OPS suggests he is a threat regardless of the matchup. Given his 38.3% seasonal home run rate per game, the +205 odds (requiring 32.8%) represent significant value in these conditions.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRays· -115

Junior Caminero is currently the most productive bat in the Rays' lineup, hitting .389 over his last 10 games and reaching base five times in the series opener. He faces Lake Bachar, a fly-ball-oriented pitcher (0.66 GO/AO) who allows a high hard-hit rate of 44.2%. Caminero's power profile (14 HR, .906 OPS) is well-suited for this matchup. Additionally, Bachar is not fully stretched out (49 pitches in his last start), meaning Caminero will likely face a Marlins bullpen that includes high-ERA arms like Pete Fairbanks (6.61 ERA). The primary risk is Bachar's high strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) potentially limiting Caminero's contact.

THE LONG SHOT

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.H+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBlue Jays· -145

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently the most productive bat in the Blue Jays lineup, hitting .359 over his last 10 games. This matchup is ideally suited for his splits; Guerrero Jr. is a significantly better hitter in day games, maintaining a .353 average that is nearly 60 points higher than his season average. He faces Kyle Bradish, who has struggled with location this season as evidenced by a 1.42 WHIP. Bradish has a pronounced platoon disadvantage against right-handed hitters, surrendering a .295 average and .822 OPS to them compared to a .215 average against lefties. With the game total set at a high 10.5 and significant wind blowing out toward the gaps, Guerrero Jr. is in a prime position to leverage his high contact rate and the pitcher's vulnerability to righties to clear this line.

THE LONG SHOT

MIGUEL VARGASHR OVER 0.5

MLBWhite Sox· +370

Miguel Vargas presents an excellent value proposition against Phillies starter Andrew Painter. Painter has struggled with contact quality in 2026, allowing a high 9.2% barrel rate and possessing a 0.57 GO/AO ratio, which indicates a strong tendency toward allowing fly balls. In a hitter-friendly environment with 93-degree temperatures and a 13-mph wind blowing out, a fly-ball-prone pitcher with a 5.74 ERA is highly vulnerable to the long ball. Vargas has already demonstrated significant power this season with 15 home runs and an .873 OPS, including a recent two-home run game. He occupies the second spot in the White Sox order, ensuring high-volume opportunities against a struggling starter. His season HR rate of 24.2% per game already exceeds the 21.3% implied probability of these +370 odds, and the specific matchup against a fly-ball pitcher in these weather conditions amplifies that edge.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -115

While Braxton Ashcraft has been exceptional for Pittsburgh, the evaluation of the Braves' offense points directly to Matt Olson as the most reliable producer. Olson has been in 'scorching' form, clearing the 1.5 total bases line in 80% of his last 10 games. As a left-handed hitter, Olson matches up better against Ashcraft than his right-handed teammates; Ashcraft's OPS allowed to lefties (.681) is significantly higher than his mark against righties (.560). Olson's consistency is backed by 13 hits in his last 10 games, including three home runs, demonstrating both a high floor and a high ceiling. With the weather in Atlanta reaching 87 degrees, the ball should carry well, further aiding Olson's power-heavy profile. As the heart of the Braves' offense, Olson will get multiple high-leverage plate appearances against both an emerging starter and a Pirates bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the league (19th in ERA).

THE LONG SHOT

SHANE MCCLANAHANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBRays· -125

Shane McClanahan has been elite, allowing one run or fewer in six of his last seven starts and posting a 1.73 ERA over his last 26.0 innings. He faces a Marlins offense that has struggled significantly against left-handed pitching, holding a 3-14 record against southpaws. McClanahan's dominant platoon splits (.114 AVG vs LHB, .199 AVG vs RHB) suggest he can navigate the Miami order with minimal damage. While loanDepot park has a 1.03 hitter-friendly factor, the Marlins' recent offensive drought (held to 2 hits yesterday) makes this a strong under candidate. The risk is McClanahan's 3.6 xERA, which suggests he has been overperforming and could be due for regression.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE BRADISHK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBOrioles· -120

While Bradish has shown high-ceiling strikeout potential earlier this season, his recent form suggests a tightening floor. He has failed to exceed 4 strikeouts in each of his last two starts. The 1.42 WHIP is a major concern tonight; in a game with a 10.5 total and 30 mph winds blowing out, any loss of command will likely result in high-stress innings and an early hook from the manager to protect the bullpen. Furthermore, the Blue Jays lineup features high-contact bats like Ernie Clement (only 16 K in 244 AB) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who are difficult to put away. If Bradish continues his trend of allowing significant baserunners (33 BB in 65 IP), he is unlikely to maintain the efficiency required to navigate deep enough into the game to record 6 strikeouts.

THE LONG SHOT

ONEIL CRUZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -110

The evaluation of this matchup centers on the 'vulnerable' version of Spencer Strider currently taking the mound. While Strider remains an elite strikeout threat, his 2026 form has been marred by uncharacteristic command issues and a significant susceptibility to left-handed power (1.45 HR/9 to LHB). The Pirates' lineup is perfectly constructed to exploit this, and Oneil Cruz is the primary beneficiary. Cruz is arguably the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, recording a .333 average and three home runs over his last 10 games. His ability to punish high-velocity fastballs—the primary weapon in Strider's arsenal—makes him a high-probability candidate for an extra-base hit. Strider's fastball has been hit hard this year (.283 BA allowed), and Cruz's top-tier exit velocity profile aligns perfectly with these defensive gaps. Despite batting lower in the confirmed order, Cruz only needs one authoritative contact to clear the 1.5 total bases mark.

THE LONG SHOT

BEN RICEHR OVER 0.5

MLBYankees· +390

With Aaron Judge on the shelf, Ben Rice has taken over as the primary power threat in the Yankees' lineup, and he enters tonight's contest in elite form. This season, Rice has been exceptionally efficient at Yankee Stadium, hitting 10 home runs in just 88 home at-bats. While tonight's starter Ranger Suarez is a left-hander, Rice has shown no platoon disadvantage, maintaining a .992 OPS against southpaws. The environmental factors at Yankee Stadium tonight are a massive boost for a fly-ball hitter; with temperatures near 90 degrees and a stiff 15 mph wind blowing directly out to center field, balls that would typically be caught at the warning track have a much higher probability of clearing the fence. Rice already homered in the series opener on Friday and matches up well against Suarez's 91.8 mph fastball.

THE LONG SHOT

WILLSON CONTRERASHR OVER 0.5

MLBRed Sox· +400

Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Red Sox lineup, having recorded home runs in consecutive games, including a crucial blast in the series opener at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .405 with a clear elevation in contact quality. He faces right-hander Will Warren, who has shown significant vulnerability recently. In Warren's last outing, he was tagged for six earned runs and two home runs in just 4.0 innings. Warren's season-long hard-hit rate allowed of 39.8% suggests that when hitters make contact, they are doing so with authority. Contreras has been more dangerous on the road this season, posting a .945 OPS away from Fenway Park. Combined with the 15 mph wind blowing out to center field, the veteran catcher is well-positioned to exploit Warren's recent struggles.

Research

PLATOON EDGEBOS @ NYY
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.292 OPS, 52 AB) sits well above his .554 mark the other way (75 AB). Tonight's starter Ranger Suarez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ PHI
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Andrew Painter (RHP)
Over 123 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .875 OPS versus .319 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Andrew Painter tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ TEX
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Kumar Rocker (RHP)
Over 82 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a 1.000 OPS versus .534 in 43 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kumar Rocker tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ SD
Gavin Sheets (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Gavin Sheets's vs. Right line (.879 OPS, 146 AB) sits well above his .345 mark the other way (30 AB). Tonight's starter Christian Scott throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ COL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.982 OPS, 153 AB) sits well above his .550 mark the other way (58 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Feltner throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
PLATOON EDGECIN @ STL
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Matthew Liberatore (LHP), batting 3rd
Spencer Steer carries a 1.154 OPS vs. Left (52 AB) against .697 the other way (160 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Liberatore from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ COL
Troy Johnston (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Troy Johnston's vs. Right line (.887 OPS, 164 AB) sits well above his .384 mark the other way (38 AB). Tonight's starter Brandon Sproat throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Phillies
Kyle Schwarber to go deep
Kyle Schwarber is currently the most prolific power hitter in baseball, leading the majors with 23 home runs through 60 games. He enters this matchup in peak form, batting .342 over his last 10 games, including a four-hit performance in yesterday's series opener.
PLATOON EDGEKC @ MIN
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 3rd against Zebby Matthews (RHP)
Over 161 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .753 OPS versus .375 in 66 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zebby Matthews tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
HEAT CHECKSF @ CHC
Jung Hoo Lee is scorching: 1.406 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 33 PA: a 1.406 OPS versus .805 for the season, 0.601 above his norm.
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Phillies
Miguel Vargas to go deep
Miguel Vargas presents an excellent value proposition against Phillies starter Andrew Painter. Painter has struggled with contact quality in 2026, allowing a high 9.2% barrel rate and possessing a 0.57 GO/AO ratio, which indicates a strong tendency toward allowing fly balls.
SITUATIONALNYM @ SD
NYM's bullpen has covered 17.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Sean Manaea (5) and Jonah Tong (3.3). SD's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
HEAT CHECKSF @ CHC
Willy Adames is scorching: 1.107 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (56 PA) he is at a 1.107 OPS, up 0.35 on his .757 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIN
17 bullpen innings in 3 games for MIN
Relievers have absorbed 17 innings over the last 3 games (Mike Paredes (3.7) and Andrew Morris (2.7) the heaviest). KC's pen has thrown 8.3 over the same span.
STREAKALG @ ARG
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup
Defending champions from 2022 — 6 wins in their last 8 World Cup matches (W-W-W-W-W-W-L-L).
HEAT CHECKOAK @ HOU
Tyler Soderstrom is scorching: 1.108 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (44 PA) he is at a 1.108 OPS, up 0.359 on his .749 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season.
HR THREATMariners @ Tigers
Luke Raley to go deep
Luke Raley is the Mariners' premier power threat against right-handed starters, with all 13 of his home runs this season coming against RHP, supported by a .919 OPS in those matchups. He faces Keider Montero, whose 0.56 GO/AO ratio indicates he is one of the most fly-ball-prone starters in the league.
HR THREATRed Sox @ Yankees
Ben Rice to go deep
With Aaron Judge on the shelf, Ben Rice has taken over as the primary power threat in the Yankees' lineup, and he enters tonight's contest in elite form. This season, Rice has been exceptionally efficient at Yankee Stadium, hitting 10 home runs in just 88 home at-bats.
HR THREATRed Sox @ Yankees
Willson Contreras to go deep
Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Red Sox lineup, having recorded home runs in consecutive games, including a crucial blast in the series opener at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .405 with a clear elevation in contact quality.
SITUATIONALWSH @ ARI
WSH's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Miles Mikolas (6) and Paxton Schultz (2.7). ARI's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
REGRESSIONOAK @ HOU
Jack Perkins: 6.19 ERA vs 3.3 xERA
Jack Perkins carries a 6.19 ERA against a 3.3 expected ERA (2.89 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .252 off him vs a .222 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
SITUATIONALTB @ MIA
MIA's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Phillips (4.7) and Ryan Gusto (2). TB's pen has thrown 14.3 over the same span.
REGRESSIONLAA @ LAD
Mookie Betts is hitting .179 with a .264 expected
Across 129 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .179 average versus a .264 xBA. His wOBA sits at .270 against a .331 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
SITUATIONALCIN @ STL
CIN's pen has logged 15 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 15 innings out of the pen — Brandon Leibrandt (6) and Caleb Ferguson (3.3) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
BATTER VS ARMBAL @ TOR
George Springer is 8-for-19 (.421) off Kyle Bradish
George Springer's career line off Kyle Bradish is 8-for-19, a .421 average over 19 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight.
HR THREATMariners @ Tigers
Dominic Canzone to go deep
Dominic Canzone offers a secondary play on the matchup against Keider Montero's fly-ball tendencies. Canzone has hit all 7 of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching and enters this contest with momentum, having recorded a home run and a multi-hit game within his last five appearances.
COOLING OFFCLE @ TEX
Angel Martinez has gone cold: .359 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .359 OPS spans the last 15 days (39 PA) against a .704 season baseline, a 0.345 drop.
COOLING OFFOAK @ HOU
Shea Langeliers has gone cold: .618 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a .618 OPS, down 0.282 from his .900 season mark.
COOLING OFFCLE @ TEX
Chase DeLauter has gone cold: .447 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a .447 OPS versus .738 for the season, 0.291 below his norm.
BALLPARKWSH @ ARI
Merrill Kelly owns a 7.66 ERA at Chase Field — 4.50 everywhere else
Across 4 games (22.3 IP) at this venue, Merrill Kelly has a 7.66 ERA against 4.50 at his other parks (36 IP). Hitters bat .293 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
COOLING OFFKC @ MIN
Austin Martin has gone cold: .458 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (56 PA) he is at a .458 OPS, down 0.234 from his .692 season mark.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr. is scorching: .916 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a .916 OPS, up 0.256 on his .660 season mark.
HEAT CHECKBAL @ TOR
Colton Cowser is scorching: 1.043 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.043 OPS spans the last 15 days (35 PA) against a .672 season baseline, a 0.371 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TEX
Joc Pederson is scorching: 1.118 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.118 OPS versus .823 for the season, 0.295 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
SITUATIONALBAL @ TOR
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Chad Dallas (3.7) and Yariel Rodriguez (2) the heaviest). BAL's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
SITUATIONALMIL @ COL
MIL's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Chad Patrick (4) and Jake Woodford (3) carried the load. COL's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
COOLING OFFPIT @ ATL
Dominic Smith has gone cold: .390 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 31 PA: a .390 OPS versus .792 for the season, 0.402 below his norm.
REGRESSIONWSH @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.24 ERA vs 4.56 xERA
Eduardo Rodriguez carries a 2.24 ERA against a 4.56 expected ERA (2.32 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .222 off him vs a .265 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONCIN @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 4.42 ERA vs 6.56 xERA
Kyle Leahy carries a 4.42 ERA against a 6.56 expected ERA (2.14 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .289 off him vs a .306 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
BALLPARKRSA @ MEX
Mexico vs South Africa kicks off at Estadio Azteca
Estadio Azteca sits 2,240m above sea level, the highest venue of the tournament. Thinner air at this elevation affects stamina and ball flight.
HEAT CHECKBOS @ NYY
Willson Contreras is scorching: 1.195 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 44 PA: a 1.195 OPS versus .934 for the season, 0.261 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
HEAT CHECKKC @ MIN
Michael Massey is scorching: 1.069 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.069 OPS, up 0.299 on his .770 season mark.
BALLPARKCZE @ KOR
South Korea vs Czechia kicks off at Estadio Akron
Estadio Akron sits 1,566m above sea level. Thinner air at this elevation affects stamina and ball flight.
COOLING OFFOAK @ HOU
Jeff McNeil has gone cold: .360 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (42 PA) he is at a .360 OPS, down 0.273 from his .633 season mark.
BALLPARKBAL @ TOR
Braydon Fisher owns a 1.15 ERA at Rogers Centre — 3.86 everywhere else
Across 13 games (15.7 IP) at this venue, Braydon Fisher has a 1.15 ERA against 3.86 at his other parks (18.7 IP). Hitters bat .122 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
COOLING OFFKC @ MIN
Carter Jensen has gone cold: .438 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a .438 OPS, down 0.219 from his .657 season mark.
COOLING OFFCIN @ STL
Nolan Gorman has gone cold: .307 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .307 OPS spans the last 15 days (35 PA) against a .615 season baseline, a 0.308 drop.
REGRESSIONMIL @ COL
Christian Yelich's .278 AVG hides a .213 xBA
Christian Yelich is hitting .278 against a .213 expected average (xBA) over 140 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .347 against a .287 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
REGRESSIONWSH @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 5.71 ERA vs 7.62 xERA
Merrill Kelly carries a 5.71 ERA against a 7.62 expected ERA (1.91 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .271 off him vs a .311 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONMIL @ COL
Jackson Chourio is hitting .295, but his xBA is .233
Across 123 plate appearances, Jackson Chourio carries a .295 average versus a .233 xBA. His wOBA sits at .369 against a .341 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
SITUATIONALOAK @ HOU
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Steven Okert (3) and Enyel De Los Santos (2) the heaviest). OAK's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
TOURNAMENTGROUP H
Spain are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Spain are -475 to win Group H — the shortest group-winner price of the tournament. The next side in Group H, Uruguay, is out at +400.
REGRESSIONNYM @ SD
Manny Machado is hitting .175 with a .231 expected
Across 249 plate appearances, Manny Machado carries a .175 average versus a .231 xBA. His wOBA sits at .273 against a .314 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
STREAKCOL @ UZB
Colombia are unbeaten in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 4 2018 World Cup matches they are 2-1-1 (D-W-W-L), carrying a 3-match unbeaten run.
STREAKCPV @ ESP
Spain are winless in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-4-2 (L-L-D-W-D-D-W-D), carrying 3 straight World Cup games without a win.
SITUATIONALPAR @ TUR
Türkiye arrive on 5 days' rest; Paraguay have had 7
Türkiye come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Paraguay have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the June 20 meeting.
BALLPARKWSH @ ARI
At Chase Field, Eduardo Rodriguez pitches to a 1.34 ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez starts at Chase Field tonight, where his ERA is 1.34 over 40.3 innings — 3.38 on a 32-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .175 off him here.
TOURNAMENTGROUP B
Group B is the tightest group-winner market
Group B's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Switzerland and Canada both priced inside +250.
BALLPARKSUI @ QAT
Qatar vs Switzerland: afternoon heat at Levi's Stadium
An open-air 12pm local kickoff at Levi's Stadium — open-air in hot Bay Area inland afternoons. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
BALLPARKBOS @ NYY
Will Warren owns a 3.96 ERA at Yankee Stadium — 2.25 everywhere else
Across 7 games (36.3 IP) at this venue, Will Warren has a 3.96 ERA against 2.25 at his other parks (28 IP). Hitters bat .234 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
STREAKEGY @ BEL
Belgium are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 5-1-2 (D-L-W-W-L-W-W-W), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
STREAKMAR @ BRA
Morocco are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 4-2-2 (L-L-W-W-W-W-D-D), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
STREAKCUW @ GER
Germany are unbeaten in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 6 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-1-3 (W-D-L-L-W-L), carrying a 2-match unbeaten run.
BALLPARKLAA @ LAD
Roki Sasaki's ERA drops to 3.26 at Dodger Stadium
Roki Sasaki carries a 3.26 ERA over 6 games (30.3 IP) at tonight's park vs 4.88 across 27.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .233 off him here. He starts here tonight.
BATTER VS ARMMIL @ COL
Christian Yelich is 5-for-12 (.417) off Ryan Feltner
Christian Yelich has gone 5-for-12 (.417) across 12 career at-bats off Ryan Feltner. They meet again tonight.
BALLPARKCHW @ PHI
Andrew Painter's ERA drops to 5.04 at Citizens Bank Park
Andrew Painter carries a 5.04 ERA over 6 games (30.3 IP) at tonight's park vs 6.65 across 23 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .252 off him here. He starts here tonight.
BALLPARKCIN @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 3.77 ERA
Kyle Leahy starts at Busch Stadium tonight, where his ERA is 3.77 over 28.7 innings — 5.04 on a 30.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .284 off him here.
BATTER VS ARMCIN @ STL
Lars Nootbaar is 3-for-10 (.300) off Brady Singer
Lars Nootbaar's career line off Brady Singer is 3-for-10, a .300 average over 10 at-bats — they meet again tonight.
TOURNAMENTGROUP STAGE
The eight best third-place sides advance
In the 48-team format the eight best third-place finishers reach the Round of 32 — a single win across the group stage can be enough to advance.
BALLPARKSF @ CHC
Ben Brown's ERA jumps to 2.57 at Wrigley Field
Ben Brown carries a 2.57 ERA over 8 games (21 IP) at tonight's park vs 1.47 across 30.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .232 off him here. He starts here tonight.
BALLPARKPAR @ USA
USA vs Paraguay: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
BALLPARKTUR @ AUS
Australia vs Türkiye: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
BALLPARKCUW @ GER
Germany vs Curaçao: indoors at NRG Stadium
NRG Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
TOURNAMENTGROUP A
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Mexico are the market favourite to win Group A at -140. Opens June 11: Mexico vs South Africa.
TOURNAMENTGROUP B
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar
Switzerland are the market favourite to win Group B at -135. Opens June 12: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.
TOURNAMENTGROUP C
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Brazil enter as the No. 5 title choice at +850. Opens June 13: Brazil vs Morocco. Shortest price to win Group C: Brazil at -340.
TOURNAMENTGROUP I
Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
France enter as the No. 2 title choice at +470. Opens June 16: France vs Senegal. Shortest price to win Group I: France at -215.
TOURNAMENTGROUP E
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao
Germany enter as the No. 7 title choice at +1300. Opens June 14: Germany vs Curaçao. Shortest price to win Group E: Germany at -270.
TOURNAMENTGROUP F
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Netherlands enter as the No. 8 title choice at +1600. Opens June 14: Netherlands vs Japan. Shortest price to win Group F: Netherlands at -135.
TOURNAMENTGROUP D
Group D: USA, Türkiye, Paraguay, Australia
USA are the market favourite to win Group D at +125. Opens June 13: USA vs Paraguay.
TOURNAMENTGROUP G
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium enter as the No. 9 title choice at +2200. Opens June 15: Belgium vs Egypt. Shortest price to win Group G: Belgium at -250.
TOURNAMENTGROUP H
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
Spain enter as the No. 1 title choice at +440. Opens June 15: Spain vs Cabo Verde. Shortest price to win Group H: Spain at -475.

Graded results

Games

W
Mariners ML -134
MLB · 4-0
L
Orioles ML -106
MLB · 4-6
L
Pirates ML -104
MLB · 3-6
L
Athletics ML +102
MLB · 2-13
W
Cardinals ML -126
MLB · 5-6
L
Giants ML +126
MLB · 2-3
W
White Sox ML +116
MLB · 6-3
L
Rays ML -134
MLB · 3-4
L
Twins ML -146
MLB · 3-2

Props

L
Ben Brown · over
Giants @ Cubs · Actual 5
L
Ben Rice · over
Red Sox @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Colson Montgomery · over
White Sox @ Phillies · Actual 4
W
Dominic Canzone · over
Mariners @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Ha-Seong Kim · under
Pirates @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Henry Bolte · over
Athletics @ Astros · Actual 3
L
Isaac Collins · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 2
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Athletics @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rays @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Julio Rodriguez · over
Mariners @ Tigers · Actual 1
L
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Kerry Carpenter · under
Mariners @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Kyle Bradish · under
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 3
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
White Sox @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
White Sox @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Luke Raley · over
Mariners @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Matt Olson · over
Pirates @ Braves · Actual 2
L
Matt Olson · over
Pirates @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Miguel Vargas · over
White Sox @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Oneil Cruz · over
Pirates @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Giants @ Cubs · Actual 4
L
Shane McClanahan · under
Rays @ Marlins · Actual 4
L
Shane McClanahan · under
Rays @ Marlins · Actual 6
L
Taylor Ward · over
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · over
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · over
Orioles @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Yankees · Actual 0