Reds at Cardinals
O/U 9 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium
Cardinals ML-126
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 5-6
The read
We have a hot, breezy afternoon in St. Louis as the Cardinals look to secure a series victory over their division rivals at a sun-drenched Busch Stadium. The Cardinals enter this matchup with strong wind at their backs after a convincing 10-3 win yesterday, and they have a clear pitching and situational edge today to keep that momentum rolling. On the mound, Matthew Liberatore is coming off his strongest start of the season—a scoreless 5.1-inning gem—and is finding his rhythm with an elite breaking ball mix featuring a curveball and slider that generate massive whiff rates of 48.7% and 36.5%, respectively. Although Cincinnati loaded their lineup with right-handed hitters to counter the left-handed starter, they've played right into Liberatore's hands, as he has held righties to a solid .715 OPS this season while heavily protecting his vulnerable left-handed splits.
On the other side, Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is a statistical ticking time bomb. While his 5.20 ERA is already high, his xERA sits at an alarming 6.65, meaning his results are resting on a very fragile foundation. Lodolo's primary sinker is getting hammered to the tune of a .433 batting average and a .578 xwOBA, which has contributed to a dangerous 2.28 HR/9 rate this season. With 87°F temperatures thinning out the air and an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Lodolo's command issues and fly-ball tendencies are a recipe for disaster against power-hitting threats like Jordan Walker (15 HR) and Alec Burleson. The return of Lars Nootbaar to the top of the Cardinals' lineup further lengthens their offense, giving them a disciplined, high-OBP presence that can exploit Lodolo's high walk rate.
The strongest argument against the Cardinals is that baseball is high-variance and the Reds' righty-heavy lineup has some individual home run potential. However, the Reds are short-handed and their bullpen is heavily depleted, missing key relief arms and relying on heavily taxed, high-ERA options. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' premier late-inning arms, including Riley O'Brien and George Soriano, are fully rested after yesterday's blowout. When you combine Liberatore's high-whiff breaking stuff against an aggressive Reds lineup, Lodolo's home run vulnerability in a high-temperature game with wind blowing out, and the vastly superior bullpen of the home team, St. Louis at -126 is an exceptionally strong value. Back the Cardinals to take this game on the moneyline.
Injuries noted
Cardinals: [NEW] Nathan Church (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Church (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, Derrick Goold and Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) [NEW] JJ Wetherholt (2B) — Groin (Not Specified): Wetherholt (groin) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game versus the Reds, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jun 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ryan Fernandez (RP) — Back: The Cardinals recalled Fernandez from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday. (Jun 5 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbow) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Memphis as soon as this weekend, Derrick Goold and Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) Reds: [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): De La Cruz (hamstring) had his scheduled MRI moved up three days to this coming Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters Saturday that Greene (elbow) could return from the 60-day injured list prior to the All-Star break, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino (hamstring) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona confirmed Wednesday that Lowder (shoulder) will be reinstated from the injured list to start Sunday's game in St. Louis, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 3 — 2d ago) [NEW] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) underwent an MRI exam Friday that showed positive results, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson threw a scoreless seventh inning in Tuesday's win over the Phillies to pick up his fourth hold of the season. He struck out two while allowing a walk. (May 30 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 29d ago)
About this analysis
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- Board stored June 6, 2026 at 11:44 AM ET.
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