streakNYK @ SAS
NYK has won 12 straight
NYK won its last 12 by an average of 22.7; their last-10 mark is 10-0.
P team won 105-104
ballpark_shiftCHW @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 7.31 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 1.54 everywhere else
Across 6 games (32 IP) at this venue, Jesus Luzardo has a 7.31 ERA against 1.54 at his other parks (35 IP). Hitters bat .286 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
platoon_edgePIT @ HOU
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Kai-Wei Teng (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .975 OPS vs. Right (159 AB) against .610 the other way (63 AB), and faces RHP Kai-Wei Teng from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
platoon_edgeLAD @ ARI
Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Corbin Carroll's vs. Left line (1.181 OPS, 76 AB) sits well above his .809 mark the other way (143 AB). Tonight's starter Justin Wrobleski throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
cooling_offLAD @ ARI
Ildemaro Vargas has gone cold: .307 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (46 PA) he is at a .307 OPS, down 0.447 from his .754 season mark.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
heat_checkSF @ CHC
Jung Hoo Lee is scorching: 1.483 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.483 OPS versus .803 for the season, 0.68 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Cubs
Ian Happ to go deep
Ian Happ is perfectly positioned to exploit Robbie Ray's extreme platoon splits. Ray has allowed 13 home runs this season, and every single one has been hit by a right-handed batter.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Cubs
Casey Schmitt to go deep
Casey Schmitt has emerged as the Giants' primary power threat, leading the team's active starters with 13 home runs. His production is heavily concentrated in day games, where he maintains a .957 OPS and has hit 7 of his 13 home runs in just 85 at-bats.
P 2 HR — 4-for-6, 10 TB
rest_fatigueTB @ MIA
TB's bullpen has covered 17.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Mason Englert (5) and Trevor Martin (3). MIA's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-0
platoon_edgeLAD @ ARI
Will Smith (bats R) hits 5th against Ryne Nelson (RHP)
Over 129 AB vs. Right, Will Smith owns a .813 OPS versus .452 in 42 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryne Nelson tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
streakALG @ ARG
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup
Defending champions from 2022 — 6 wins in their last 8 World Cup matches (W-W-W-W-W-W-L-L).
heat_checkOAK @ CHC
Tyler Soderstrom is scorching: 1.093 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (46 PA) he is at a 1.093 OPS, up 0.343 on his .750 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
heat_checkOAK @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong is scorching: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a 1.046 OPS versus .745 for the season, 0.301 above his norm. He has 9 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSF @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong is scorching: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a 1.046 OPS versus .745 for the season, 0.301 above his norm. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueOAK @ CHC
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Luis Medina (3) and Jack Perkins (2.3) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 13.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-7
platoon_edgeSF @ CHC
Willy Adames (bats R) draws Edward Cabrera (RHP), batting 4th
Willy Adames carries a .791 OPS vs. Right (184 AB) against .513 the other way (66 AB), and faces RHP Edward Cabrera from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-2, 8 TB, 2 BB
regression_watchTB @ MIA
Ryan Gusto: 9 ERA vs 6.34 xERA
Ryan Gusto carries a 9 ERA against a 6.34 expected ERA (2.66 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .357 off him vs a .363 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
platoon_edgePIT @ HOU
Ryan O'Hearn (bats L) hits 4th against Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)
Over 124 AB vs. Right, Ryan O'Hearn owns a .932 OPS versus .656 in 49 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kai-Wei Teng tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
heat_checkLAD @ ARI
Ketel Marte is scorching: 1.017 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.017 OPS spans the last 15 days (54 PA) against a .776 season baseline, a 0.241 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
regression_watchLAD @ ARI
Mookie Betts is hitting .183 with a .261 expected
Across 126 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .183 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .271 against a .326 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHC
Shea Langeliers (bats R) draws Shota Imanaga (LHP), batting 3rd
Shea Langeliers carries a 1.067 OPS vs. Left (61 AB) against .860 the other way (167 AB), and faces LHP Shota Imanaga from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB
cooling_offOAK @ CHC
Jeff McNeil has gone cold: .352 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (43 PA) he is at a .352 OPS, down 0.29 from his .642 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ CHC
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Robbie Ray (LHP), batting 6th
Carson Kelly carries a .894 OPS vs. Left (54 AB) against .627 the other way (91 AB), and faces LHP Robbie Ray from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
ballparkCZE @ KOR
South Korea vs Czechia kicks off at Estadio Akron
Estadio Akron sits 1,566m above sea level. Thinner air at this elevation affects stamina and ball flight.
ballparkRSA @ MEX
Mexico vs South Africa kicks off at Estadio Azteca
Estadio Azteca sits 2,240m above sea level, the highest venue of the tournament. Thinner air at this elevation affects stamina and ball flight.
cooling_offSF @ CHC
Seiya Suzuki has gone cold: .485 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a .485 OPS, down 0.245 from his .730 season mark.
P 1-for-1, 4 TB, 3 BB
cooling_offOAK @ CHC
Michael Conforto has gone cold: .404 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .404 OPS spans the last 15 days (24 PA) against a .863 season baseline, a 0.459 drop.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
rest_fatigueSF @ CHC
13.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for CHC
Relievers have absorbed 13.3 innings over the last 3 games (Ryan Rolison (2.3) and Hoby Milner (2.3) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 18-3
heat_checkPIT @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez is scorching: 1.328 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 43 PA: a 1.328 OPS versus 1.077 for the season, 0.251 above his norm. He has 21 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchCHW @ PHI
Anthony Kay: 3.77 ERA vs 5.69 xERA
Anthony Kay carries a 3.77 ERA against a 5.69 expected ERA (1.92 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .256 off him vs a .278 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
tournamentGROUP H
Spain are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Spain are -475 to win Group H — the shortest group-winner price of the tournament. The next side in Group H, Uruguay, is out at +400.
rest_fatigueBAL @ TOR
12.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 12.7 innings over the last 3 games (Chad Dallas (3.7) and Braydon Fisher (1.7) the heaviest). BAL's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 13-3
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHC
Michael Busch (bats L) hits 3rd against J.T. Ginn (RHP)
Over 157 AB vs. Right, Michael Busch owns a .817 OPS versus .651 in 67 AB the other way. He sees RHP J.T. Ginn tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueSEA @ DET
SEA's pen has logged 12.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.7 innings out of the pen — Cooper Criswell (3) and Eduard Bazardo (2.7) carried the load. DET's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-7
cooling_offSF @ CHC
Nico Hoerner has gone cold: .524 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a .524 OPS, down 0.17 from his .694 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkPIT @ HOU
Bryan Reynolds is scorching: 1.011 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a 1.011 OPS, up 0.191 on his .820 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchLAD @ ARI
Ketel Marte is hitting .258 with a .307 expected
Across 256 plate appearances, Ketel Marte carries a .258 average versus a .307 xBA. His wOBA sits at .338 against a .380 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
situationalPAR @ TUR
Türkiye arrive on 5 days' rest; Paraguay have had 7
Türkiye come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Paraguay have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the June 20 meeting.
streakCOL @ UZB
Colombia are unbeaten in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 4 2018 World Cup matches they are 2-1-1 (D-W-W-L), carrying a 3-match unbeaten run.
streakCPV @ ESP
Spain are winless in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-4-2 (L-L-D-W-D-D-W-D), carrying 3 straight World Cup games without a win.
rest_fatiguePIT @ HOU
12 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 12 innings over the last 3 games (Alimber Santa (3) and Nate Pearson (2) the heaviest). PIT's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-1
tournamentGROUP B
Group B is the tightest group-winner market
Group B's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Switzerland and Canada both priced inside +250.
regression_watchPIT @ HOU
Spencer Horwitz's .285 average outruns a .238 expected
Spencer Horwitz's .285 average comes against a .238 expected (xBA) on 223 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .371 against a .337 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
beneficiaryLAD @ ARI
James McCann (C) is out for ARI — Gabriel Moreno starts in his place tonight
Quadriceps; On the injury report for 2 days; Gabriel Moreno bats 3rd tonight and carries a .717 OPS / .254 AVG this season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offLAD @ ARI
Jose Fernandez has gone cold: .437 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (38 PA) he is at a .437 OPS, down 0.204 from his .641 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
heat_checkLAD @ ARI
Will Smith is scorching: .984 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .984 OPS spans the last 15 days (29 PA) against a .724 season baseline, a 0.26 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
ballparkSUI @ QAT
Qatar vs Switzerland: afternoon heat at Levi's Stadium
An open-air 12pm local kickoff at Levi's Stadium — open-air in hot Bay Area inland afternoons. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
regression_watchBOS @ NYY
Sonny Gray: 3.06 ERA vs 4.39 xERA
Sonny Gray carries a 3.06 ERA against a 4.39 expected ERA (1.33 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .243 off him vs a .266 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
regression_watchOAK @ CHC
Nico Hoerner's .253 AVG masks a .294 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .253 against a .294 expected average (xBA) over 285 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .315 against a .337 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
regression_watchSF @ CHC
Nico Hoerner's .253 AVG masks a .294 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .253 against a .294 expected average (xBA) over 285 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .315 against a .337 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
streakMAR @ BRA
Morocco are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 4-2-2 (L-L-W-W-W-W-D-D), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
ownedNYK @ SAS
NYK leads the series 3-1
Series edge: NYK holds a 3-1 mark on SAS (avg 11-point win margin, 4 prior meetings).
P team won 105-104
streakEGY @ BEL
Belgium are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 5-1-2 (D-L-W-W-L-W-W-W), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
streakCUW @ GER
Germany are unbeaten in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 6 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-1-3 (W-D-L-L-W-L), carrying a 2-match unbeaten run.
ballpark_shiftSF @ CHC
Edward Cabrera owns a 3.55 ERA at Wrigley Field — 4.71 everywhere else
Across 6 games (33 IP) at this venue, Edward Cabrera has a 3.55 ERA against 4.71 at his other parks (21 IP). Hitters bat .283 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
tournamentGROUP STAGE
The eight best third-place sides advance
In the 48-team format the eight best third-place finishers reach the Round of 32 — a single win across the group stage can be enough to advance.
ballpark_shiftBAL @ TOR
Trey Yesavage's ERA jumps to 2.81 at Rogers Centre
Trey Yesavage carries a 2.81 ERA over 3 games (16 IP) at tonight's park vs 1.71 across 21 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .224 off him here. He starts here tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
ballpark_shiftSEA @ DET
Framber Valdez owns a 5.14 ERA at Comerica Park — 4.05 everywhere else
Across 4 games (21 IP) at this venue, Framber Valdez has a 5.14 ERA against 4.05 at his other parks (46.7 IP). Hitters bat .253 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
ballpark_shiftOAK @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Shota Imanaga pitches to a 5.13 ERA
Shota Imanaga starts at Wrigley Field tonight, where his ERA is 5.13 over 47.3 innings — 4.08 on a 28.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .227 off him here.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
ballparkCUW @ GER
Germany vs Curaçao: indoors at NRG Stadium
NRG Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkPAR @ USA
USA vs Paraguay: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkTUR @ AUS
Australia vs Türkiye: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
tournamentGROUP I
Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
France enter as the No. 2 title choice at +470. Opens June 16: France vs Senegal. Shortest price to win Group I: France at -220.
tournamentGROUP A
Group A: Mexico, Czechia, South Korea, South Africa
Mexico are the market favourite to win Group A at -140. Opens June 11: Mexico vs South Africa.
tournamentGROUP B
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar
Switzerland are the market favourite to win Group B at -135. Opens June 12: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.
tournamentGROUP C
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Brazil enter as the No. 5 title choice at +850. Opens June 13: Brazil vs Morocco. Shortest price to win Group C: Brazil at -350.
tournamentGROUP G
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium enter as the No. 9 title choice at +2200. Opens June 15: Belgium vs Egypt. Shortest price to win Group G: Belgium at -250.
tournamentGROUP D
Group D: USA, Türkiye, Paraguay, Australia
USA are the market favourite to win Group D at +125. Opens June 13: USA vs Paraguay.
tournamentGROUP E
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao
Germany enter as the No. 7 title choice at +1300. Opens June 14: Germany vs Curaçao. Shortest price to win Group E: Germany at -280.
tournamentGROUP H
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
Spain enter as the No. 1 title choice at +450. Opens June 15: Spain vs Cabo Verde. Shortest price to win Group H: Spain at -475.
tournamentGROUP F
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Netherlands enter as the No. 8 title choice at +1600. Opens June 14: Netherlands vs Japan. Shortest price to win Group F: Netherlands at -135.
rest_fatigueNYK @ SAS
Both sides on 2 days rest
No rest gap here — both sides on 2 days rest.