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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

I’m riding Kansas City because Bergert’s 2.61 ERA travels, and his .184 opponents’ average suffocates contact-reliant lineups. Cleveland’s bats have been light, with Bo Naylor at .178, so that profile plays right into a starter carrying a 1.09 WHIP. On the other side, Cecconi’s 4.78 ERA invites traffic, and Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .294, which turns those base runners into real pressure. The risk is K.C.’s depth going cold—Caglianone at .151 shows the dip—but Frazier’s steady .268 gives them a floor to back Bergert’s advantage.