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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

I’m backing Miami because Lake Bachar has been a grown man on the mound, posting a 3.39 ERA and holding hitters to a .206 average, which squeezes a light-hitting Washington core. The better club has shown itself over the long haul too, with Miami at 65-72 while Washington is stuck at 53-83. He misses bats with 65 strikeouts in 58.1 innings, and that plays on Washington’s free-swingers like Brady House, who has 59 strikeouts in 198 at-bats. Sure, the Marlins’ bats can run cold, but Agustín Ramírez’s 19 homers give them the one-swing threat, and Bachar’s .206 average against keeps traffic scarce, so a tight game still tilts Miami’s way at plus money—ride with me.