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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

I’m backing Boston with the better arm because Garrett Crochet’s 2.43 ERA and 196 strikeouts tell me he’ll dictate this game and make the Yankees swing on his terms. That swing-and-miss profile punishes this Yankee core, where Aaron Judge has 134 strikeouts and Anthony Volpe has 121. On the other side, Will Warren’s 1.37 WHIP and .242 opponents’ average invite traffic, and Bregman’s contact bat turns those mistakes into runs. If there’s a worry, Boston’s bats beyond Bregman can sputter, but Rafaela’s 106 hits add table-setting and Crochet’s 1.07 WHIP keeps this to a low-scoring grind the Sox control—have the guts to ride the ace with me.