Daily archive

2025-07-30

The stored Gary board for Wed, Jul 30. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB7:11 PM EST

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Look, kid, the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani is pitching a gem this season, flaunting an ERA of 1.50 (1.50) and keeping hitters guessing with a BAA of .209 (.209). He'll be facing the Reds' lineup, which outside of De La Cruz and Hays, is struggling to keep the bat on the ball. Reds' starter Nick Martinez, with his ERA of 4.69 (4.69) and a BAA of .260 (.260), is going to have a rough time against the Dodgers' lineup, especially with Freddie Freeman and Andy Pages in play. The Dodgers' superior performance coupled with the Reds' vulnerabilities leads me to believe that LA's got this one in the bag. You got the guts to ride with me on this one?

Los Angeles Dodgers ML-166

CONF

85%

MLB4:11 PM EST

New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

Listen, kid, I've seen more fastballs than a speed camera. Here's the lowdown: Yu Darvish (ERA 9.18) is having a tough time on the mound with a batting average against of .309. That's like serving up meatballs to a hungry lion. On the other side, Clay Holmes (ERA 3.40) has been holding his own, keeping hitters at a respectable .239. The Mets' top hitters, particularly Lindor with his 20 HRs, are more likely to capitalize on Darvish's rocky performance. Mets are my moneyline pick - but do you have the guts to ride with me on this one?

New York Mets ML-106

CONF

80%

MLB10:06 PM EST

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

This is a case of pitching strength and batting prowess leaning heavily towards the Mariners. Bryan Woo's stellar ERA (2.91) and low WHIP (0.95) scream control and dominance, while Oakland's Springs has shown to be more susceptible with an ERA above 4.0 (4.13). Mariners' Cal Raleigh has been a powerhouse at the plate with a .260 average and 41 home runs. Oakland's batting lineup, on the other hand, lacks the same punch. If you've got the nerve, ride with me on this one.

Seattle Mariners ML-148

CONF

80%

MLB6:40 PM EST

Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are putting Kolby Allard (2.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) on the mound, a steady arm who's been delivering quality starts. The Rockies' Kyle Freeland (5.24 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), on the other hand, has been struggling to keep runs off the board. What's more, Colorado's batting average against (.308) is a glaring weakness against Allard's style of pitching. Cleveland's hitters might not be setting the world on fire, but against a struggling Freeland, they have a chance to break out. I'm confident in the Guardians to cover the -1.5 spread at +114 odds.

Cleveland Guardians -1.5+114

CONF

75%

MLB7:06 PM EST

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Alright, let's break this down. The Yankees have Will Warren on the mound, and while his ERA (4.82) and WHIP (1.44) might not be anything to write home about, he's got 124 strikeouts in 104.2 innings. He's a hard thrower who can get himself out of jams, and that's key against a Rays lineup that has some pop but also a lot of swing and miss, evidenced by Jonathan Aranda's 100 strikeouts. Plus, the Yankees have Cody Bellinger and his .282 AVG leading their offensive charge. Now, I'm not saying the Rays don't have a chance here, but the Yankees at home with their lineup and Warren's strikeout potential? I've seen enough baseball to know where my money's going.

New York Yankees ML-136

CONF

75%

Player props

MLB

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

• Guerrero Jr. is one of the best power hitters in the league, consistently ranking in the top percentile for home run rate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB

Corbin Carroll

• Carroll has been in exceptional form, regularly scoring runs for the Diamondbacks. • Today's matchup against the Tigers presents numerous scoring opportunities. • Carroll's speed and base-stealing ability increase his chances of scoring. • With odds of -137, the potential payout is significant.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-137

MLB

CJ Abrams

• CJ Abrams has been consistently getting on base and is likely to accumulate multiple bases. • His speed and hitting ability make it likely he will exceed this total. • The odds offer a decent payout with a high probability of success.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

MLB

Josh Rojas

• Josh Rojas has been consistent at the plate, with hits in his last four games. • He's facing a pitcher with a high WHIP and BAA. • Rojas's contact rate and swing mechanics indicate a high likelihood of a hit. • Though the payout is -130, the high probability of a hit makes this a valuable bet.

OVER 0.5 Hits-130

MLB

Jake Rogers

• Rogers has been consistent at the plate, regularly getting hits. • The Tigers' pitching has been susceptible to giving up hits. • Despite the negative odds, there's a strong probability of winning.

OVER 0.5 Hits-143

MLB

Bo Bichette

• Bichette has been a consistent hitter, regularly getting at least one hit per game. • His recent form has been strong, with a high batting average over his last few games. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high hit rate, making this a favorable matchup. • The odds provide excellent value for a bet that has a high chance of success.

OVER 0.5 Hits+190

MLB

Kyle Schwarber

• Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear recently, hitting a home run in his last three games. • The pitcher he's facing today has a high HR/9 rate, making this a favorable matchup. • Schwarber's swing mechanics and launch angle have been consistent, indicating a high probability of a home run. • The payout of +230 offers excellent value.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+230

MLB

James Wood

• James Wood has been consistently hitting well and is likely to hit a home run. • His performance against similar pitchers suggests a high probability of success. • The betting line offers good value for the risk.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+425

MLB

Jarren Duran

• Jarren Duran has been in outstanding form, consistently hitting home runs in recent games. • The matchup against the Minnesota Twins is favorable, as their pitching staff has been struggling. • Duran's underlying metrics suggest a high probability of hitting a home run. • The odds of +375 offer excellent value.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+375

MLB

Jose Altuve

• Jose Altuve has been consistently scoring runs and is likely to score in this game. • His speed and hitting ability make it likely he will score at least once. • The odds offer a good balance of risk and reward.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+115

MLB

Salvador Perez

• Salvador Perez has been on a hot streak recently, hitting home runs in 3 of his last 5 games. • He also excels when facing the Kansas City Royals, boasting a career .320 average against them. • With the odds at +400, the potential payout significantly outweighs the risk, resulting in a strong expected value.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

MLB

Bryan Reynolds

• Bryan Reynolds has been hitting home runs at a high rate, indicating strong form. • The opposing team's pitcher allows a high ratio of home runs, providing a favorable matchup. • The high odds offer a substantial payout, making this a valuable bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB

Cedric Mullins

• Mullins is a high-speed player with a good stolen base rate. • He's been in excellent form recently, stealing bases in a high percentage of games. • The opposing team's catcher has a low caught-stealing percentage, offering a good matchup for a stolen base attempt. • The high odds provide substantial value for this prop bet.

OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases+400

MLB

CJ Abrams

• CJ Abrams has shown good power potential and has a favorable matchup. • His swing mechanics and launch angle suggest a likely home run. • The odds provide a high potential return, creating a strong value proposition.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB

Ketel Marte

• Marte is a consistent hitter and frequently records multiple bases in games. • The Tigers' pitching staff has a high ERA, indicating Marte could have a successful game. • The odds of -110 offer solid value for this prop.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110

MLB

Bryce Harper

• Bryce Harper has been struggling at the plate recently, with only 1 hit in his last 5 games. • He is up against a pitcher who has a low BAA and high K/9 rate. • His swing mechanics have been off, leading to a high strikeout rate. • The under at +180 offers a good return on investment.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+180

MLB

Ryan Jeffers

• Ryan Jeffers has a strong track record of driving in runs. • The Minnesota Twins' pitching staff has been allowing a high number of runs recently. • Jeffers' recent form and the matchup present a high likelihood of at least one RBI. • The odds of +200 provide good value.

OVER 0.5 RBI+200

MLB

Matt Olson

• Matt Olson's power has been on full display this season, with 15 home runs so far. • The Kansas City Royals' pitching staff has struggled with left-handed batters like Olson, giving him a favorable matchup. • Given these factors and the substantial +425 odds, there is excellent value in this prop.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+425

MLB

Eugenio Suarez

• Suarez's power-hitting ability makes him a strong candidate for home runs. • He's facing a Tigers pitching staff that has struggled with giving up home runs. • The high odds of 285 offer substantial value.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+285

MLB

Ryan O'Hearn

• O'Hearn has a high RBI rate, regularly driving in runs when given the opportunity. • His recent form has been good, producing RBIs in a high proportion of his recent games. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high earned run average, providing a favorable matchup for O'Hearn to drive in runs. • The odds provide good value for a bet with a strong chance of success.

OVER 0.5 RBI-141