Sports picks for Thursday, August 7, 2025
18 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
3
Mariners MoneylineLogan Gilbert (ERA 3.45, WHIP 0.98) is a solid arm, especially at home, while Shane Smith (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.31) has been vulnerable to high-powered offenses. The Mariners have a significant advantage with their pitching and hitting depth, making it hard for the struggling White Sox lineup to keep pace. With Seattle's playoff aspirations on the line, I see them taking care of business here without a hitch.
Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.45, WHIP 0.98) is a solid arm, especially at home, while Shane Smith (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.31) has been vulnerable to high-powered offenses. The Mariners have a significant advantage with their pitching and hitting depth, making it hard for the struggling White Sox lineup to keep pace. With Seattle's playoff aspirations on the line, I see them taking care of business here without a hitch.
Pirates MoneylineLook, Paul Skenes is a beast on the mound with that shiny 2.02 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92, making him a nightmare for Cincinnati's hitters, who are prone to strikeouts (like Elly De La Cruz with 123 K's). Meanwhile, Brady Singer's 4.36 ERA and .247 BAA suggests he's vulnerable, and Pittsburgh's lineup could capitalize on that. The Pirates need this win at home, and Skenes gives them the edge they need to get it done.
Look, Paul Skenes is a beast on the mound with that shiny 2.02 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92, making him a nightmare for Cincinnati's hitters, who are prone to strikeouts (like Elly De La Cruz with 123 K's). Meanwhile, Brady Singer's 4.36 ERA and .247 BAA suggests he's vulnerable, and Pittsburgh's lineup could capitalize on that. The Pirates need this win at home, and Skenes gives them the edge they need to get it done.
Marlins MoneylineI'm backing the Marlins here because Eury Pérez's stellar performance (ERA 2.70, WHIP 0.94) gives them a decisive edge over Carlos Carrasco, who’s struggling with a 5.68 ERA and a concerning BAA of .295. The Braves' offense, while capable, has too many holes, especially against a pitcher like Pérez who's adept at keeping hitters off balance. Miami's lineup, although not elite, should capitalize on Carrasco's inconsistency, making this a solid play on their moneyline.
I'm backing the Marlins here because Eury Pérez's stellar performance (ERA 2.70, WHIP 0.94) gives them a decisive edge over Carlos Carrasco, who’s struggling with a 5.68 ERA and a concerning BAA of .295. The Braves' offense, while capable, has too many holes, especially against a pitcher like Pérez who's adept at keeping hitters off balance. Miami's lineup, although not elite, should capitalize on Carrasco's inconsistency, making this a solid play on their moneyline.
Player props
15• Oneil Cruz has shown powerful hitting ability, consistently generating home run potential in recent games. • The matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates presents favorable conditions for him, as they struggle with pitching depth. • The current odds provide a significant value compared to his true probability of hitting a home run. • Overall, the risk-reward scenario suggests a strong play on the over for home runs.
• Oneil Cruz has shown powerful hitting ability, consistently generating home run potential in recent games. • The matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates presents favorable conditions for him, as they struggle with pitching depth. • The current odds provide a significant value compared to his true probability of hitting a home run. • Overall, the risk-reward scenario suggests a strong play on the over for home runs.
• Raleigh has shown strong power, contributing to a high home run rate in recent games. • He faces a pitcher with a susceptibility to giving up home runs, creating an advantageous matchup. • The odds of +225 provide significant value given his recent form and the matchup context.
• Raleigh has shown strong power, contributing to a high home run rate in recent games. • He faces a pitcher with a susceptibility to giving up home runs, creating an advantageous matchup. • The odds of +225 provide significant value given his recent form and the matchup context.
• Ramírez has shown significant power recently, hitting multiple home runs in the last few games. • He faces a pitcher with a high home run rate, increasing his chances of going deep. • The odds of +425 provide substantial value considering his current form and matchups.
• Ramírez has shown significant power recently, hitting multiple home runs in the last few games. • He faces a pitcher with a high home run rate, increasing his chances of going deep. • The odds of +425 provide substantial value considering his current form and matchups.
• Arozarena has been hitting home runs at a consistent rate, particularly against similar pitching styles. • He is in a good form currently, making this a strong opportunity for him to hit a home run today. • The odds of +330 represent a solid value considering his power potential and matchup.
• Arozarena has been hitting home runs at a consistent rate, particularly against similar pitching styles. • He is in a good form currently, making this a strong opportunity for him to hit a home run today. • The odds of +330 represent a solid value considering his power potential and matchup.
• Jack Suwinski has demonstrated an ability to hit home runs with solid frequency, particularly against right-handed pitchers. • Facing a Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff that has struggled against left-handed batters increases his chances significantly. • The odds reflect an enticing payout that exceeds the expected probability of him hitting a home run. • This prop bet offers a compelling opportunity for profit based on his current form and matchup.
• Jack Suwinski has demonstrated an ability to hit home runs with solid frequency, particularly against right-handed pitchers. • Facing a Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff that has struggled against left-handed batters increases his chances significantly. • The odds reflect an enticing payout that exceeds the expected probability of him hitting a home run. • This prop bet offers a compelling opportunity for profit based on his current form and matchup.
• Suarez has a solid track record of power hitting, especially in favorable matchups like today's. • He has been consistently hitting well, with a favorable matchup against a pitcher known for giving up home runs. • The +290 odds reflect a strong potential for value based on his recent performance.
• Suarez has a solid track record of power hitting, especially in favorable matchups like today's. • He has been consistently hitting well, with a favorable matchup against a pitcher known for giving up home runs. • The +290 odds reflect a strong potential for value based on his recent performance.
• White has been aggressive on the base paths, successfully stealing bases in recent games. • His speed gives him an edge against the opposing catcher's weaker throwing arm. • The +310 line offers significant value given his increased chances of stealing a base.
• White has been aggressive on the base paths, successfully stealing bases in recent games. • His speed gives him an edge against the opposing catcher's weaker throwing arm. • The +310 line offers significant value given his increased chances of stealing a base.
• Olson has been consistently driving in runs, with a solid opportunity to do so in this matchup. • He has a favorable batting position and is likely to face pitchers who struggle with runners on base. • The +180 line offers good value given his productive streak.
• Olson has been consistently driving in runs, with a solid opportunity to do so in this matchup. • He has a favorable batting position and is likely to face pitchers who struggle with runners on base. • The +180 line offers good value given his productive streak.
• Naylor has been a consistent performer lately, showcasing his power hitting ability. • He faces a pitcher who has struggled against left-handed power hitters, increasing his chances for a home run. • The +370 odds provide a favorable risk-reward scenario given his recent performance.
• Naylor has been a consistent performer lately, showcasing his power hitting ability. • He faces a pitcher who has struggled against left-handed power hitters, increasing his chances for a home run. • The +370 odds provide a favorable risk-reward scenario given his recent performance.
• Bryan Reynolds has been consistent in generating power, particularly in matchups against weaker pitching teams. • The Cincinnati Reds' lineup can create scoring opportunities that benefit Reynolds, increasing his chances of a home run. • The odds provide a strong payout that suggests favorable value in this bet given his potential. • This bet leverages his recent performance trends and favorable matchup conditions.
• Bryan Reynolds has been consistent in generating power, particularly in matchups against weaker pitching teams. • The Cincinnati Reds' lineup can create scoring opportunities that benefit Reynolds, increasing his chances of a home run. • The odds provide a strong payout that suggests favorable value in this bet given his potential. • This bet leverages his recent performance trends and favorable matchup conditions.
• Andrew McCutchen has shown flashes of his power recently, making him a viable candidate for a home run. • The matchup against a struggling Pirates pitching staff presents a solid opportunity for him to capitalize. • His current odds suggest an opportunity for profit that aligns well with his likelihood of hitting a home run. • This prop bet is a strategic play based on his form and the favorable conditions.
• Andrew McCutchen has shown flashes of his power recently, making him a viable candidate for a home run. • The matchup against a struggling Pirates pitching staff presents a solid opportunity for him to capitalize. • His current odds suggest an opportunity for profit that aligns well with his likelihood of hitting a home run. • This prop bet is a strategic play based on his form and the favorable conditions.
• Elly De La Cruz has been impactful at the plate, showcasing his power potential consistently. • The matchup against the Pirates is beneficial, as they have weaknesses that he can exploit. • The odds for this prop bet present a considerable value in relation to his chances of hitting a home run. • Given his recent performance and the favorable matchup, this bet is a solid opportunity for profit.
• Elly De La Cruz has been impactful at the plate, showcasing his power potential consistently. • The matchup against the Pirates is beneficial, as they have weaknesses that he can exploit. • The odds for this prop bet present a considerable value in relation to his chances of hitting a home run. • Given his recent performance and the favorable matchup, this bet is a solid opportunity for profit.
• Polanco has displayed strong power numbers recently and has a good matchup against a vulnerable pitcher. • His recent consistency in hitting makes him a strong candidate for a home run today. • The odds of +475 are enticing, providing a solid expected value based on his performance.
• Polanco has displayed strong power numbers recently and has a good matchup against a vulnerable pitcher. • His recent consistency in hitting makes him a strong candidate for a home run today. • The odds of +475 are enticing, providing a solid expected value based on his performance.
• Johnston has been a catalyst at the top of the lineup, frequently getting on base. • He will face a pitcher who allows a high on-base percentage, enhancing his potential to score. • The odds at +185 present a favorable return given his recent performance.
• Johnston has been a catalyst at the top of the lineup, frequently getting on base. • He will face a pitcher who allows a high on-base percentage, enhancing his potential to score. • The odds at +185 present a favorable return given his recent performance.
• Edwards has been consistently making contact and getting on base in recent games. • He is likely to face a pitcher who has struggled to limit hits in similar matchups. • The odds of +115 provide a reasonable return considering his current hitting form.
• Edwards has been consistently making contact and getting on base in recent games. • He is likely to face a pitcher who has struggled to limit hits in similar matchups. • The odds of +115 provide a reasonable return considering his current hitting form.