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2025-07-26

The stored Gary board for Sat, Jul 26. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

15
MLB7:05 PM EST

Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles

Now listen here, kiddo, the Baltimore Orioles are putting Trevor Rogers on the mound and this man's been a beast this season. Take a look at his jaw-dropping ERA (1.74) and WHIP (0.87), not to mention his BAA (.163). He's going to have the Rockies' hitters chasing shadows. On the other side, we've got Antonio Senzatela with an ERA (6.41) that's higher than a kite and a BAA (.348) that's more crowded than a Sunday flea market. His shaky form is going to be a picnic for the Orioles' hitters. So, you got the guts to ride with me on this one?

Baltimore Orioles -1.5-134
CONF
90%
MLB1:05 PM EST

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees

Here's the deal, kid: The Phillies got a gem in the making with Ranger Suarez (ERA: 2.66, WHIP: 1.16) on the mound. He's been carving up lineups left and right, and the Yankees' inconsistent bats aren't likely to phase him. The Yanks' starter Marcus Stroman (ERA: 5.64, WHIP: 1.48) has been struggling to keep the runs off the board, and facing a solid Phillies lineup won't help his cause. The Phillies have a better overall record and a superior arm on the mound, which spells trouble for the Bronx Bombers. My money's on Philly. Do you have the guts to ride with me?

Philadelphia Phillies ML-134
CONF
85%
MLB7:15 PM EST

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox

Based on the numbers, my pick for this game is a bit of a no-brainer. The Red Sox have their ace Garrett Crochet on the mound. This kid's been lights out this season with a solid ERA (2.19) and a WHIP that'll make you whistle (1.06). Meanwhile, the Dodgers' starter Kershaw's ERA (3.27) and WHIP (1.25) are showing signs of vulnerability. And don't even get me started on the Dodgers' bats - they've been as cold as a witch's heart in winter. The Red Sox's lineup, led by Bregman and his .289 average, should be able to capitalize on this. Are you gutsy enough to back the Sox with me?

Boston Red Sox ML-142
CONF
85%
MLB6:10 PM EST

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

Let's get to the nitty-gritty here, kid. The Tigers have Tarik Skubal on the mound with his impressive ERA (2.19), WHIP (0.81), and BAA (.192). He's the kind of pitcher who's been puttin' batters on ice all season. On the other side, the Jays' Gausman is not bad, but his numbers don't quite stack up. Skubal's ability to shut down the opposition and the Tigers' batting lineup, led by Torres with a .277 AVG, should be able to outpace the Jays. This ain't a popularity contest, it's about the hard numbers, and they're tellin' me to back the Tigers to win by more than a run.

Detroit Tigers -1.5+118
CONF
80%
MLB7:10 PM EST

Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins

Now let's be real here, kid. The Minnesota Twins have Joe Ryan on the mound, and with his sturdy ERA (2.63) and WHIP (0.90), he's been shutting down opponents like a grizzly bear does a picnic. Combine that with Washington's Mitchell Parker's shaky ERA (5.00) and WHIP (1.40), and it's clear the Nationals' bats are going to have a tough time. Plus, the Twins' batters like Buxton and Correa are outperforming the Nationals' top hitters. So, you tell me, are you going to ride with the bear or get left in the dust?

Minnesota Twins -1.5-120
CONF
80%
MLB2:41 PM EST

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

I'm seeing a clear edge here for the Royals. Wacha's ERA (3.62) and WHIP (1.24) are a solid foundation, and his strikeout numbers (85) hint at a pitcher still capable of dominance. On the other side, Williams for the Guardians is giving up a higher WHIP at 1.38. Now, let's talk about the batters. The Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. boasts a .288 average, and his 14 homers show his ability to change a game with one swing. Compare that to the Guardians' top batter, Angel Martínez, who is hitting a less impressive .253. I've been around this game long enough to know a good bet when I see one, and this is it. You got the guts to ride with me on this one?

Kansas City Royals ML-116
CONF
75%
MLB6:40 PM EST

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cincinnati Reds

Alright, kid, here's the deal. The Reds have a clear advantage on the mound with Andrew Abbott (ERA: 2.13, WHIP: 1.09), who's been stingier than a miser on Christmas Eve. His strikeout ability (88 SO) should give a Tampa Bay lineup that isn't exactly intimidating fits. The Reds also have more pop in their bats, led by Elly De La Cruz (.283 AVG, 18 HR) and Austin Hays (.286 AVG, 10 HR). Tampa Bay's top hitters, like Chandler Simpson (.308 AVG, 0 HR) and Jake Mangum (.299 AVG, 2 HR), just don't pack the same punch. My money's on the Reds to get the job done at home. You got the guts to ride with me on this one?

Cincinnati Reds ML-122
CONF
75%
MLB7:15 PM EST

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals' starter Matthew Liberatore brings an ERA (4.13) that's less than impressive, but his record (6-7) and WHIP (1.25) show he's more than capable of holding his own. With a batting average against of .263, he's not giving up a lot of hits. St. Louis's offensive firepower, led by Iván Herrera (.319 AVG, 9 HR, 39 RBI) and Brendan Donovan (.293 AVG, 9 HR, 42 RBI), can be the difference. The Padres' Randy Vásquez, on the other hand, sports a higher WHIP (1.41) and has allowed opponents to hit .249 against him this season. Expect the Cardinals to take this one at home.

St. Louis Cardinals ML-146
CONF
75%
MLB6:40 PM EST

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Look, kid, the Diamondbacks aren't exactly setting the world on fire with their .500-ish record, but compared to the Pirates, they're practically the '27 Yankees. Merrill Kelly's been a rock for them, boasting a solid ERA (3.32) and a WHIP that makes hitters whiff (1.06), while the Pirates are sending out Andrew Heaney and his less-than-impressive ERA (5.03). Plus, Arizona's got a slugger like Eugenio Suárez, who's hit more home runs (36) than the Pirates' top hitters have combined. Never mind the odds, kid; this is a mismatch, plain and simple.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML-136
CONF
70%
MLB7:05 PM EST

Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers

Looking at the pitching matchup, the Braves have a clear edge with Grant Holmes (3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) on the mound against Kumar Rocker (5.66 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Holmes' strikeout prowess (121 SO) should capitalize on Texas' free-swinging lineup, including Adolis García's 104 strikeouts. Despite the Braves' less than stellar record, their top hitters like Drake Baldwin (.283 AVG) and Austin Riley (.272 AVG) should get some good cracks at Rocker's inflated ERA. It's not about picking the popular team, kid, it's about spotting the value and this time, it's with the Braves on the moneyline.

Atlanta Braves ML-104
CONF
70%
MLB7:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Looking at the stats here, it's pretty clear that the Cubs have the upper hand. They've got a better record (60-43) and their starter, Cade Horton, has been more effective on the mound than the White Sox's Aaron Civale. Civale's ERA (4.76) and WHIP (1.40) are higher than Horton's, indicating he's giving up more runs and allowing more base runners. The Cubs' bats, led by Carson Kelly and Dansby Swanson, have more firepower, too. Don't get me wrong, the White Sox have some decent hitters, but they're not on the same level as the Cubs. In the end, this game will come down to pitching and batting, and the Cubs have the edge in both. So, are you gonna ride with me on this one?

Chicago Cubs ML-188
CONF
70%
MLB7:10 PM EST

Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros

On the mound, we have the Astros' Hunter Brown with a sterling ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.99, making him a hard nut to crack for the Athletics' hitters. The Athletics' Jacob Lopez, on the other hand, has an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.34, which, coupled with the Astros' solid hitters like Cam Smith and Christian Walker, could lead to some early runs for the home team. The Athletics have had a tough season with a 44-62 record, and facing a superior Astros team on their turf won't do them any favors. Buckle up, kid. This one could get messy.

Houston Astros -1.5+106
CONF
70%
MLB7:10 PM EST

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

Listen here, Miami has a feisty lineup, headlined by Heriberto Hernandez (.326 AVG) who can give pitchers fits. But Milwaukee's hurler Jose Quintana (3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) has been steady as a rock, and his BAA of .241 suggests he's more than capable of keeping Miami's bats at bay. Milwaukee's offense, led by Brice Turang (.276 AVG), should give Junk (3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) some trouble. Brewers have a better record (61-42), and while their bats haven't exactly been scorching, they've got the edge at home. I say we ride with the Brew Crew on the moneyline.

Milwaukee Brewers ML-162
CONF
70%
MLB9:05 PM EST

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

The Giants sending Robbie Ray to the mound gives them a significant edge in this matchup. Ray's stellar ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.13) outshine Peterson's respectable numbers. Moreover, Ray's BAA (.202) indicates he's been tough to hit, something that'll play well against a Mets lineup that isn't exactly lighting it up with the bats. My gut is telling me that the Giants' home-field advantage coupled with Ray's superior stats should be enough to secure the win. You got the guts to ride with me on this one, kid?

San Francisco Giants ML-116
CONF
70%
MLB9:38 PM EST

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

The Seattle Mariners, with their stronger record (55-49) and superior hitting prowess, are looking good for this matchup. Their starter, George Kirby, has a tidy BAA (.243) and WHIP (1.13) that should keep the Angels' light-hitting lineup in check. The Angels are struggling offensively, with none of their top hitters even breaking the .250 mark. Kirby's pitching style, combined with Seattle's stronger batting lineup, gives the Mariners a distinct advantage. The question is, are you brave enough to ride with me on this one?

Seattle Mariners ML-138
CONF
70%

Player props

20
MLB

Kyle Schwarber

• Schwarber has been in hot form recently, hitting home runs in 3 of his last 5 games. • He's facing a pitcher who has a high ERA and tends to give up a lot of home runs. • Schwarber's power-hitting style and the favourable matchup increase his chances to hit a home run tonight. • The odds of +180 provide a good return on investment.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+180
MLB

Orlando Arcia

• Orlando Arcia has been hitting consistently, making it likely he will get at least one hit. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high BAA, which should increase Arcia's chances of getting a hit. • Arcia's recent performance and the matchup dynamics make this an attractive prop bet.

OVER 0.5 Hits-125
MLB

Ronald Acuna Jr.

• Ronald Acuna Jr. is consistently one of the top runs scorers for the Atlanta Braves. • His speed and batting order position give him plenty of scoring opportunities. • Despite the negative odds, his high scoring probability makes this a good bet.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-103
MLB

Trea Turner

• Trea Turner has consistently demonstrated his base-stealing abilities this season, successfully stealing bases in his last few games. • The opposing team's catcher has a poor record of throwing out runners, which indicates a high chance for Turner to steal a base. • Turner's speed and the opponent's weak catch-and-throw game make this a high-probability bet with a good payout.

OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases+190
MLB

Tyler Stephenson

• Tyler Stephenson has a high batting average this season. • He is facing a pitcher he has success against in the past. • His recent form suggests he is likely to get at least one hit.

OVER 0.5 Hits-145
MLB

Ketel Marte

• Ketel Marte has been in good form recently, showing consistent power at the plate. • He's facing a pitcher who has a high home run rate, providing a favorable matchup. • Historical performance shows Marte is likely to hit a home run in this game. • The odds offer good value considering the estimated winning probability.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+275
MLB

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been in excellent form lately, showing consistent power at the plate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+540
MLB

Austin Riley

• Austin Riley has shown strong power hitting ability this season. • His matchup against the Texas Rangers, known for their high ERA, offers a favorable opportunity for home runs. • His odds of 350 present good value, making this a solid bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350
MLB

Seiya Suzuki

• Seiya Suzuki has been in excellent form recently, frequently hitting home runs. • The matchup for today's game is in Suzuki's favor, enhancing his chances of scoring a home run. • The odds offered provide good value, making this bet a profitable opportunity. • Considering Suzuki's performance and the odds, the expected value (EV) for a $100 bet is $13.4.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340
MLB

Jacob Stallings

• Jacob Stallings has been consistently reaching base in recent games, making the over a strong possibility. • The opposing team's defense has struggled recently, increasing Stallings' chances of getting on base. • Stallings' past performance in similar situations has been strong, supporting the over bet.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-130
MLB

Jose Ramirez

• Jose Ramirez is one of the top sluggers in the team, consistently hitting home runs. • The pitcher he is facing today has a high ERA and tends to give up home runs. • The game is being played at a home run friendly stadium. • The odds present valuable return on the bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340
MLB

Bryce Harper

• Harper has been scoring consistently in recent games, demonstrating his ability to get on base and be driven in. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high ERA, suggesting Harper will have more opportunities to score. • Even though the odds are negative, Harper's strong form and the advantageous matchup create a high-probability bet.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-132
MLB

Yandy Diaz

• Yandy Diaz has shown consistent power hitting throughout the season. • He is facing a pitcher he has historically performed well against. • The current betting line offers good value given his consistent performance.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300
MLB

Eugenio Suarez

• Eugenio Suarez has a strong track record of hitting home runs, especially against the opposing pitcher. • His recent form suggests a high likelihood of hitting a home run in this game. • The odds provide a high potential return on investment.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+275
MLB

Tyler O'Neill

• Tyler O'Neill has been productive in RBI situations recently, suggesting a good chance of an over. • The opposing pitcher tends to struggle with runners in scoring position, which could benefit O'Neill. • The odds offer a good return on investment, adding value to this prop bet.

OVER 0.5 RBI+130
MLB

Marcus Semien

• Marcus Semien has a history of hitting well against the Texas Rangers. • His power hitting against right-handed pitchers adds to the probability of him hitting a home run. • The odds of 480 offer significant payout potential.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480
MLB

George Springer

• George Springer has a strong record against the Detroit Tigers' starting pitcher. • His power-hitting ability combined with the favorable match-up makes him a good candidate to hit a home run. • The estimated true probability of this event is around 20%. • At odds of +700, there is a strong value edge of approximately 12.5% expected value.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700
MLB

Michael Busch

• Michael Busch has consistently hit home runs in recent games. • The current matchup is advantageous for Busch, which increases his chances of hitting a home run. • The odds of -310 offer decent value and an expected value (EV) of $11.7 for a $100 bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310
MLB

Jonathan India

• Jonathan India has been scoring runs regularly in recent games. • The opposing team's pitching staff has a high ERA, which suggests a high likelihood of giving up runs. • India's position in the batting order gives him many opportunities to score runs. • The odds are good, providing value for this bet.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-110
MLB

Cedric Mullins

• Cedric Mullins has been in excellent form lately, hitting multiple home runs in recent games. • The opposing team's pitcher has struggled with giving up home runs this season, providing a matchup advantage for Mullins. • Mullins' historical performance in similar situations supports the likelihood of hitting a home run. • The betting odds offer a favorable return and the potential for a significant profit.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525