Sports picks for Thursday, July 24, 2025
22 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
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Blue Jays MoneylineHere's the deal, kid, the Jays got a slight record advantage over the Tigers, but it's their man on the mound, Eric Lauer, who I'm really banking on. His ERA (2.80) and WHIP (0.97) are just a touch better than Detroit's Olson, and Lauer's been stingy with the hits, keeping the opponents' batting average down to .195. Add in Toronto's firepower with Bichette and Kirk, and I reckon the Jays have the edge here. The question is, do you have what it takes to bet against the home team and ride with me on the Jays?
Here's the deal, kid, the Jays got a slight record advantage over the Tigers, but it's their man on the mound, Eric Lauer, who I'm really banking on. His ERA (2.80) and WHIP (0.97) are just a touch better than Detroit's Olson, and Lauer's been stingy with the hits, keeping the opponents' batting average down to .195. Add in Toronto's firepower with Bichette and Kirk, and I reckon the Jays have the edge here. The question is, do you have what it takes to bet against the home team and ride with me on the Jays?
Astros MoneylineListen here, the Astros are hosting the Athletics, and while neither team's pitcher is having a banner year, it's Houston that's got the edge. Jason Alexander's ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.80) aren't exactly stellar, but he's facing off against Luis Severino who's carrying a 5.10 ERA and a 3-11 record. Oakland's hitters are struggling too, with only Brent Rooker hitting above .275. Meanwhile, the Astros have a more robust lineup, led by Cam Smith (.265 AVG). The combination of Houston's superior hitting and home field advantage leads me to believe they'll pull out a win tonight. Do you have the guts to ride with me on this one?
Listen here, the Astros are hosting the Athletics, and while neither team's pitcher is having a banner year, it's Houston that's got the edge. Jason Alexander's ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.80) aren't exactly stellar, but he's facing off against Luis Severino who's carrying a 5.10 ERA and a 3-11 record.
Oakland's hitters are struggling too, with only Brent Rooker hitting above .275. Meanwhile, the Astros have a more robust lineup, led by Cam Smith (.265 AVG).
The combination of Houston's superior hitting and home field advantage leads me to believe they'll pull out a win tonight. Do you have the guts to ride with me on this one?
Player props
20• Cal Raleigh is leading the Mariners with 39 HRs, which shows his power at the plate. • He has been consistent in his form, hitting a .256 AVG with an .989 OPS. • Raleigh is facing Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, indicating a favorable matchup for Raleigh. • The payout of +205 offers a strong value edge, with an expected value of approximately 24.39%.
• Cal Raleigh is leading the Mariners with 39 HRs, which shows his power at the plate. • He has been consistent in his form, hitting a .256 AVG with an .989 OPS. • Raleigh is facing Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, indicating a favorable matchup for Raleigh. • The payout of +205 offers a strong value edge, with an expected value of approximately 24.39%.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been consistently hitting home runs this season. • He is up against Reese Olson who has a BAA of .225, which favors strong hitters like Guerrero. • The odds of +540 offer a significant return on investment. • The confidence in this bet is high due to Guerrero's consistent performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been consistently hitting home runs this season.
• He is up against Reese Olson who has a BAA of .225, which favors strong hitters like Guerrero. • The odds of +540 offer a significant return on investment.
• The confidence in this bet is high due to Guerrero's consistent performance.
• Taylor Trammell has been hitting consistently, recording at least one hit in his last 5 games. • The opposing pitcher has been struggling, having a high WHIP. • Trammell's recent form and the matchup suggest a hit probability of around 65%. • Despite the negative odds, the bet offers a decent return with an expected value of approximately 10.31%.
• Taylor Trammell has been hitting consistently, recording at least one hit in his last 5 games. • The opposing pitcher has been struggling, having a high WHIP. • Trammell's recent form and the matchup suggest a hit probability of around 65%. • Despite the negative odds, the bet offers a decent return with an expected value of approximately 10.31%.
• Bo Bichette is another strong hitter for the Blue Jays with a decent average. • Despite the higher odds, Bichette's recent form and matchup against Reese Olson make this a solid bet. • The expected value is high due to the potential return on investment.
• Bo Bichette is another strong hitter for the Blue Jays with a decent average. • Despite the higher odds, Bichette's recent form and matchup against Reese Olson make this a solid bet. • The expected value is high due to the potential return on investment.
• Nick Kurtz has been in excellent form with a home run in each of his last three games. • The opposing team's starting pitcher has allowed multiple home runs in his previous two starts. • Kurtz's underlying metrics suggest he maintains a true home run probability near 30%. • At +250, the payout far exceeds the risk, creating a strong value edge of approximately 15.63% expected value.
• Nick Kurtz has been in excellent form with a home run in each of his last three games. • The opposing team's starting pitcher has allowed multiple home runs in his previous two starts. • Kurtz's underlying metrics suggest he maintains a true home run probability near 30%. • At +250, the payout far exceeds the risk, creating a strong value edge of approximately 15.63% expected value.
• Tatis Jr. has consistently been a top performer for the Padres, with a .262 average and 67 runs scored this season. • He's facing Sonny Gray, who has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, indicating potential scoring opportunities. • Tatis Jr.'s ability to get on base combined with his team's offensive capability makes this an attractive bet. • The odds at -105 offer good value given Tatis Jr.'s prolific scoring record.
• Tatis Jr. has consistently been a top performer for the Padres, with a .262 average and 67 runs scored this season.
• He's facing Sonny Gray, who has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, indicating potential scoring opportunities. • Tatis Jr.'s ability to get on base combined with his team's offensive capability makes this an attractive bet.
• The odds at -105 offer good value given Tatis Jr.'s prolific scoring record.
• Mitch Garver has been consistent in getting hits with a .243 AVG. • The matchup with Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, is favorable. • The odds of -145 for the over bet offers a good value edge, with an expected value of approximately 10.34%.
• Mitch Garver has been consistent in getting hits with a .243 AVG. • The matchup with Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, is favorable. • The odds of -145 for the over bet offers a good value edge, with an expected value of approximately 10.34%.
• Carlos Santana has an OPS of .664, suggesting he frequently gets on base. • Facing Morton, who has a high ERA and WHIP, increases Santana's chances of getting at least one base. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Santana getting at least one total base to be around 65%.
• Carlos Santana has an OPS of .664, suggesting he frequently gets on base. • Facing Morton, who has a high ERA and WHIP, increases Santana's chances of getting at least one base. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Santana getting at least one total base to be around 65%.
• Bo Naylor has an average of .172, which, while low, suggests he gets hits in roughly 1 out of every 5 at-bats. • He's facing Charlie Morton, who has a high ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.54, indicating that he gives up a significant number of hits and walks. • Based on these factors, I estimate the true probability of Naylor getting at least one hit to be around 60%.
• Bo Naylor has an average of .172, which, while low, suggests he gets hits in roughly 1 out of every 5 at-bats. • He's facing Charlie Morton, who has a high ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.54, indicating that he gives up a significant number of hits and walks. • Based on these factors, I estimate the true probability of Naylor getting at least one hit to be around 60%.
• George Springer has a good batting average and reasonable number of home runs this season. • The matchup against Reese Olson is advantageous for Springer. • The odds provide a good return on investment, making this a valuable bet.
• George Springer has a good batting average and reasonable number of home runs this season. • The matchup against Reese Olson is advantageous for Springer. • The odds provide a good return on investment, making this a valuable bet.
• Nolan Schanuel has been consistent in scoring runs with a total of 35 R. • He is facing Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, giving him a good chance to score. • The odds of -121 for the over bet offer a good value edge, with an expected value of approximately 12.4%.
• Nolan Schanuel has been consistent in scoring runs with a total of 35 R. • He is facing Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.13 ERA, giving him a good chance to score. • The odds of -121 for the over bet offer a good value edge, with an expected value of approximately 12.4%.
• Luis Urias has been performing well recently, averaging more than one base per game. • The opposing pitcher has a high BAA, favoring hitters like Urias. • Urias's underlying stats and current form suggest a true total base probability of around 55%. • Despite -145 odds, the potential return is reasonable, yielding an expected value of roughly 9.38%.
• Luis Urias has been performing well recently, averaging more than one base per game. • The opposing pitcher has a high BAA, favoring hitters like Urias. • Urias's underlying stats and current form suggest a true total base probability of around 55%. • Despite -145 odds, the potential return is reasonable, yielding an expected value of roughly 9.38%.
• Dylan Carlson has an OPS of .633, suggesting he often reaches base. • Facing Logan Allen, who has a higher ERA and WHIP, increases Carlson's chances of getting at least one base. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Carlson getting at least one total base to be around 60%.
• Dylan Carlson has an OPS of .633, suggesting he often reaches base. • Facing Logan Allen, who has a higher ERA and WHIP, increases Carlson's chances of getting at least one base. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Carlson getting at least one total base to be around 60%.
• Christian Walker has been consistent in hitting home runs, achieving it in 4 of his last 5 games. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high ERA, indicating susceptibility to home runs. • Walker's current form and metrics suggest a home run probability of around 25%. • At +330 odds, the bet provides a significant return, resulting in an expected value of roughly 20.83%.
• Christian Walker has been consistent in hitting home runs, achieving it in 4 of his last 5 games. • The opposing team's pitcher has a high ERA, indicating susceptibility to home runs. • Walker's current form and metrics suggest a home run probability of around 25%. • At +330 odds, the bet provides a significant return, resulting in an expected value of roughly 20.83%.
• Sheets has been a reliable run producer for the Padres this season with 51 RBIs. • Facing Sonny Gray could provide Sheets with opportunities to drive in runs. • Sheets' RBI potential combined with the matchup advantage make this bet worth considering. • The odds at +175 offer a solid return on investment.
• Sheets has been a reliable run producer for the Padres this season with 51 RBIs. • Facing Sonny Gray could provide Sheets with opportunities to drive in runs. • Sheets' RBI potential combined with the matchup advantage make this bet worth considering. • The odds at +175 offer a solid return on investment.
• Addison Barger has hit 14 home runs this season, showing his capability to hit the ball out of the park. • Reese Olson's BAA of .225 provides an opportunity for Barger. • The odds are very favorable for this prop, leading to a high expected value.
• Addison Barger has hit 14 home runs this season, showing his capability to hit the ball out of the park. • Reese Olson's BAA of .225 provides an opportunity for Barger. • The odds are very favorable for this prop, leading to a high expected value.
• Cedric Mullins has shown solid performance with an average of .214 and 13 HRs. • He's facing Logan Allen, who has a relatively high ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.37. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Mullins contributing to at least two hits, runs, or RBIs to be around 55%.
• Cedric Mullins has shown solid performance with an average of .214 and 13 HRs. • He's facing Logan Allen, who has a relatively high ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.37. • Given these factors, I estimate the true probability of Mullins contributing to at least two hits, runs, or RBIs to be around 55%.
• Jose Altuve is a proven power hitter and his recent form has been promising. • The opposing pitcher has struggled against right-handed hitters like Altuve. • Altuve's performance in similar situations indicates a home run probability of 20%. • At +510, the potential payout provides significant value with an expected return of approximately 22.09%.
• Jose Altuve is a proven power hitter and his recent form has been promising. • The opposing pitcher has struggled against right-handed hitters like Altuve. • Altuve's performance in similar situations indicates a home run probability of 20%. • At +510, the potential payout provides significant value with an expected return of approximately 22.09%.
• Mike Trout's recent form has been less consistent, with a lower batting average of .237. • He is facing Logan Evans, who has a respectable 3.81 ERA. • The under bet offers a value edge with +220 odds, giving an expected value of approximately 18.18%.
• Mike Trout's recent form has been less consistent, with a lower batting average of .237. • He is facing Logan Evans, who has a respectable 3.81 ERA. • The under bet offers a value edge with +220 odds, giving an expected value of approximately 18.18%.
• Scott II has shown consistent hitting this season which gives him a good chance to get a hit in today's game. • He's up against Sonny Gray, which could provide him with opportunities to get on base. • Scott II's hitting form and the matchup make this bet a good choice. • The odds at -134 offer a good balance of risk and potential return.
• Scott II has shown consistent hitting this season which gives him a good chance to get a hit in today's game. • He's up against Sonny Gray, which could provide him with opportunities to get on base. • Scott II's hitting form and the matchup make this bet a good choice. • The odds at -134 offer a good balance of risk and potential return.