Sports picks for Wednesday, June 18, 2025
5 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
5
Phillies -1.5You want to beat the number, you ride with Philly here—simple as that. Ranger Suárez is one of the most reliable arms going this year with a sharp ERA (2.32), stingy WHIP (1.07), and he holds batters to a meager .222 average, while Miami trots out a rookie with zero MLB stats to his name. The Marlins’ lineup is top-heavy with a couple of solid averages, but they lack punch outside Heriberto Hernandez’s small sample and Myers’ contact work, and Philly’s deeper, more balanced order has the edge in both experience and production. With a proven arm versus an untested kid and the Phillies’ stronger all-around roster, this is the kind of spot where I don’t just want to win—I want to get paid for being right, and the -1.5 run line is how you do it if you’ve got the guts.
You want to beat the number, you ride with Philly here—simple as that. Ranger Suárez is one of the most reliable arms going this year with a sharp ERA (2.32), stingy WHIP (1.07), and he holds batters to a meager .222 average, while Miami trots out a rookie with zero MLB stats to his name. The Marlins’ lineup is top-heavy with a couple of solid averages, but they lack punch outside Heriberto Hernandez’s small sample and Myers’ contact work, and Philly’s deeper, more balanced order has the edge in both experience and production. With a proven arm versus an untested kid and the Phillies’ stronger all-around roster, this is the kind of spot where I don’t just want to win—I want to get paid for being right, and the -1.5 run line is how you do it if you’ve got the guts.
Tigers -1.5I'm not here to sugarcoat it—the gap between these clubs is wider than a rookie's strike zone on opening day. Skubal's got a Cy Young-caliber grip on games with that 1.99 ERA and a suffocating 0.81 WHIP, and Pittsburgh's bats are ice-cold, with no regular hitting above .262 and a whiff-heavy core. Detroit's lineup doesn't have to be world-beaters when their ace is doing the heavy lifting, and Heaney, while solid (3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), just doesn't have the horses behind him. If you've got the guts to lay the run and a half, the Tigers should cover this without breaking a sweat.
I'm not here to sugarcoat it—the gap between these clubs is wider than a rookie's strike zone on opening day. Skubal's got a Cy Young-caliber grip on games with that 1.99 ERA and a suffocating 0.81 WHIP, and Pittsburgh's bats are ice-cold, with no regular hitting above .262 and a whiff-heavy core. Detroit's lineup doesn't have to be world-beaters when their ace is doing the heavy lifting, and Heaney, while solid (3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), just doesn't have the horses behind him. If you've got the guts to lay the run and a half, the Tigers should cover this without breaking a sweat.
Nationals -1.5Look, the Rockies are an absolute train wreck on the road and Márquez's ugly ERA (6.62) and sky-high WHIP (1.66) tell you everything about his struggles putting hitters away and keeping runners off base. Parker might not be a shutdown ace with his 4.84 ERA, but he limits damage well enough, and Colorado's bottom-heavy lineup—with three regulars hitting .230 or worse—plays right into his hands. The Nats' top sticks, led by Abrams (.275) and Call (.276), should feast on Márquez's .318 BAA, and with the Rockies showing zero bite all season (16-57 record), I like Washington to win by a couple and offer some plus-money value. If you want to make money, you can't be scared of a little chalk when the matchup screams mismatch.
Look, the Rockies are an absolute train wreck on the road and Márquez's ugly ERA (6.62) and sky-high WHIP (1.66) tell you everything about his struggles putting hitters away and keeping runners off base. Parker might not be a shutdown ace with his 4.84 ERA, but he limits damage well enough, and Colorado's bottom-heavy lineup—with three regulars hitting .230 or worse—plays right into his hands. The Nats' top sticks, led by Abrams (.275) and Call (.276), should feast on Márquez's .318 BAA, and with the Rockies showing zero bite all season (16-57 record), I like Washington to win by a couple and offer some plus-money value. If you want to make money, you can't be scared of a little chalk when the matchup screams mismatch.
Yankees -1.5If you want the straight goods, this is a mismatch tailor-made for a runline play. Yarbrough’s control (1.18 WHIP, .230 BAA) will chew up an Angels lineup that’s flailing—nobody in their top five hitters above .220, and Kochanowicz’s bloated ERA (5.53) and massive WHIP (1.59) means he’s prime meat for Judge (.372, 26 HR) and this Bronx order. The Yankees’ bats are built to punish mistakes, and with LA’s starter serving up nearly .300 to hitters, I see a blowout brewing—if you’ve got the guts, ride the runline for the better payoff.
If you want the straight goods, this is a mismatch tailor-made for a runline play. Yarbrough’s control (1.18 WHIP, .230 BAA) will chew up an Angels lineup that’s flailing—nobody in their top five hitters above .220, and Kochanowicz’s bloated ERA (5.53) and massive WHIP (1.59) means he’s prime meat for Judge (.372, 26 HR) and this Bronx order. The Yankees’ bats are built to punish mistakes, and with LA’s starter serving up nearly .300 to hitters, I see a blowout brewing—if you’ve got the guts, ride the runline for the better payoff.
Blue Jays MoneylineLook, if you want to hand me Eric Lauer with that sparkling ERA (2.37) and WHIP (0.92) at home against a guy like Eduardo Rodriguez—who’s been getting knocked around all year (6.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, opponents hitting .302 off him)—I’ll grab it every time. Toronto’s got professional at-bats at the top with Kirk (.310) and Bichette (.270), and Lauer’s control just eats lineups that chase, which Arizona’s power bats are prone to do. This is the kind of spot the sharp money loves: reliable arm, home field, and a price that doesn’t punish you for backing the better starter. If you’ve got the guts, you ride with the Jays here.
Look, if you want to hand me Eric Lauer with that sparkling ERA (2.37) and WHIP (0.92) at home against a guy like Eduardo Rodriguez—who’s been getting knocked around all year (6.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, opponents hitting .302 off him)—I’ll grab it every time. Toronto’s got professional at-bats at the top with Kirk (.310) and Bichette (.270), and Lauer’s control just eats lineups that chase, which Arizona’s power bats are prone to do. This is the kind of spot the sharp money loves: reliable arm, home field, and a price that doesn’t punish you for backing the better starter. If you’ve got the guts, you ride with the Jays here.