Dominican Republic picks

Under the bright lights of Miami's loanDepot park, we have a heavyweight clash that feels like the true World Baseball Classic championship, as the undefeated Dominican Republic squares off against a loaded United States squad. The starting pitching matchup heavily dictates the market price here, and for good reason. The United States hands the ball to 2025 NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, who operates as the ultimate tournament equalizer against high-powered offenses. Skenes enters off a dominant four-inning, seven-strikeout performance against Mexico and holds a massive statistical edge over this Dominican core. In 27 combined plate appearances against Skenes, the current DR starters have managed just three hits (.111 average). While the Dominican lineup has been untouchable, averaging a staggering 10.2 runs per game, Skenes has the sheer velocity to neutralize their top-heavy power and keep them out of rhythm through his expected 85-pitch limit. On the other side, the Dominican Republic relies on Luis Severino, who posted a 4.54 ERA during the 2025 MLB season and profiles as a highly vulnerable target against a disciplined United States lineup. The US offense, anchoring an MVP in Aaron Judge and heavy thumpers like Cal Raleigh, matches up exceptionally well against Severino's arsenal. Several US bats, including Alex Bregman, have historically punished Severino in MLB play. The US lineup does not need to match the Dominican Republic's tournament-record 14 home runs to build a lead; they simply need to exploit Severino's known vulnerabilities early and force the Dominican Republic out of their ideal pitching script. The deciding factor lies in how the United States strategically managed its roster specifically for these knockout rounds. Recognizing the need for elite late-inning suppression against a team like the DR, the US proactively overhauled its pitching staff, swapping out bulk inning-eaters for premium, high-leverage relievers like Jeff Hoffman—who boasts a 1.46 ERA and 33 saves from his 2025 campaign—and Mason Miller. While the Dominican bullpen is exceptionally rested thanks to back-to-back mercy-rule victories, they haven't faced a lineup with the top-to-bottom MLB pedigree of the United States this tournament. With Skenes heavily favored to win the early innings and a newly constructed US bullpen ready to build a firewall for the final twelve outs, the United States has the exact structural formula required to halt the Dominican Republic's perfect run.