Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is the better team over a full season. It is at home, and it has had two days off. Winnipeg is playing its second game in two nights after being outshot 36 to 27 in Detroit on Sunday. Stuart Skinner made 34 saves on 36 shots to win that game, and Skinner sits tonight. The full-season gap is real. Last season Pittsburgh scored 3.54 goals per game to Winnipeg's 2.79, while the two teams allowed almost the same amount, 3.15 and 3.12. Special teams lean the same way: Pittsburgh ran a 24.1% power play and an 81.4% penalty kill, against 18.5% and 77.6% for Winnipeg. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang and Rickard Rakell all dress. Bryan Rust is out, and Pittsburgh has already played two games without Rust, averaging 34 shots for and 22 against. Winnipeg's early numbers raise more questions than they answer. The Jets hold a 42.5% share of 5-on-5 shot attempts through two games, and a .938 save percentage at 5-on-5 has covered for that. Tonight that cover depends on Clay Stevenson, making a Jets debut on the back end of a back-to-back. Stevenson posted a .921 save percentage in four starts for Washington last season, which is too few starts to lean on in either direction. Pittsburgh has its own question in net. Sergei Murashov's last two NHL starts came in at .857 and .861, and this is Murashov's first start of the season. Pittsburgh's 13.7% shooting at 5-on-5 will also cool. Those concerns are why the price stops at -180. With the goalie matchup close to even, the decision comes down to the teams in front of the goalies. That favors the home side, which has the stronger offense, the better special teams, and two days off against an opponent playing for the second straight night. The Jets' shot share gives me little reason to take the plus money.