San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars

Dallas has one goal through two games, but the way they've played says the scoring is coming. The Stars hold 50.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts and outshot both St. Louis and Nashville. They're converting just 2.6% of their 5-on-5 shots after shooting 10.8% last season. Forwards like Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz won't stay at that rate. Rantanen plays tonight after a maintenance day at morning skate. Matt Duchene has been out since before the opener, so both losses already came without him. San Jose's 2-0-0 start is thinner than it looks. Both wins came at home in overtime, and the Sharks still have no regulation wins. They hold 42.9% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, Los Angeles outshot them 35-25 on Oct. 3, and their penalty kill sits at 66.7%. Tonight is also their first road game of the season. Goaltending is where I see the gap. Yaroslav Askarov is at .885 through two starts, right on last season's .884 with a 3.63 goals against average. That is a goalie playing at his normal level, not one in a slump. Jake Oettinger went 35-12-6 last season with a .899 save percentage and 2.59 goals against average, and allowed two goals on 22 shots in the opener. Dallas putting pucks on a goalie at Askarov's level is the matchup I want. San Jose can still score. Macklin Celebrini already has five assists and the power play is at 33.3%. But Dallas wins 54.5% of draws to San Jose's 44.9% and allows 25.0 shots per game. I'll lay the price with the better goalie, the better shot share and a home team due to start finishing.