Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Philadelphia has been outshot in all three of its games: 18-40 against Carolina, 25-44 at New Jersey and 19-38 against Pittsburgh. Those are three different opponents and the same result each time. The Flyers sit at a 33.7% five on five shot-attempt share, with 20.7 shots for and 40.7 against per game. Three games is a small sample, and last season's 47.6% share says this club is better than what it has shown. Even a full move back to that level still leaves Philadelphia on the wrong side of a Tampa group that controlled 52.7% of attempts through two games and 53.0% last season. The two overtime losses kept the Flyers' record respectable, and Joseph Woll carried those games with 37 saves on 40 shots and 41 on 44. Woll sits tonight. Dan Vladar is confirmed, and Vladar's lone start this season was 31 saves on 38 shots in the 0-7 loss. Vladar had a solid 2025-26 in Philadelphia at .906 with a 2.42 goals against average, and I expect better than the opener. The trouble is volume. If Tampa gets anything close to the shot share Carolina and New Jersey got, Vladar needs a standout night to keep this close. Tampa's early numbers undersell the club. A .879 five on five save percentage and 8.3% shooting both sit well under last season's .908 and 11.1%, and I expect both to climb. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the expected starter, coming off 20 saves on 21 shots in a win over Washington, after going 39-15-4 at .912 last season. The skill gap is wide. Nikita Kucherov had 130 points, Jake Guentzel 88 and Brandon Hagel 74 last season, while Philadelphia has 4 goals in 3 games and no power play goal yet. Philadelphia's penalty kill is at 66.7% against a Tampa power play that ran at 20.7% last year. The new absence is on Tampa's side. Emil Lilleberg is out and Max Crozier makes his season debut on the blue line. One defensive change does not erase a gap this large in territorial play. The price is steep, and I make Tampa a stronger favorite than the number at home tonight.