NHL · Mon, Oct 5 · 7:30 PM

Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins

O/U 5.5 · SPREAD Ottawa Senators -1.5 · TD Garden

GARY'S PICK

NHLvs Ottawa Senators· -102

Boston is at home at close to a pick'em price, with the better confirmed goalie, against an Ottawa blue line that just lost its top defenseman. Goaltending is the clearest edge in this game. Jeremy Swayman is confirmed for Boston after a .908 season and a .947 start through two games. Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa after a .891 season, and Ullmark's closing stretch last year ranged from .688 to 1.000. Last season Ottawa had the better shot numbers: 28.9 shots for and 24.4 against per game, with a 52.6% 5-on-5 shot-attempt share. Ottawa still finished with a .893 5-on-5 save percentage, while Boston's was .916. That goaltending gap kept Boston level with a team that controlled more of the play, and the same two goalies start tonight. The lineup change that matters is Ottawa's. Jake Sanderson is out tonight and tomorrow after an injury in the opener, so Ottawa's 3-2 win at Toronto came with Sanderson in the lineup. Sanderson played 24:50 a night last season with 22 power-play points. Artem Zub is also out and Cameron Crotty makes a season debut. On game day, reports still listed Ottawa's defense pairs differently. Thomas Chabot already played 27:06 in the opener and now has to carry more. The shot suppression Ottawa showed last season came with Sanderson on the ice. Ridly Greig is also listed as suspended. Boston's missing player is Charlie McAvoy. Boston has played all three games without McAvoy and has allowed 2.33 goals per game, so that absence already shows up in Boston's numbers. Matthew Poitras returns tonight, and Boston's top three forward lines stay together. The early samples also lean Boston's way. Ottawa won at Toronto with a 39.0% 5-on-5 shot-attempt share, 16.7% shooting and a .958 save percentage. Boston has a 53.0% share across three games with 7.5% shooting, and David Pastrnak has 13 shots without a goal. These are small samples, and I expect Boston's finishing to improve sooner than Ottawa's results hold up. Ottawa won three of four meetings last season, including a 6-2 win in this building. Those games had Sanderson on Ottawa's blue line and different rosters on both sides. Tonight Boston is home, two days removed from its last game, with Swayman in net at -102. I'll take that price.

Boston is at home at close to a pick'em price, with the better confirmed goalie, against an Ottawa blue line that just lost its top defenseman.

Goaltending is the clearest edge in this game. Jeremy Swayman is confirmed for Boston after a .908 season and a .947 start through two games. Linus Ullmark is confirmed for Ottawa after a .891 season, and Ullmark's closing stretch last year ranged from .688 to 1.000. Last season Ottawa had the better shot numbers: 28.9 shots for and 24.4 against per game, with a 52.6% 5-on-5 shot-attempt share. Ottawa still finished with a .893 5-on-5 save percentage, while Boston's was .916. That goaltending gap kept Boston level with a team that controlled more of the play, and the same two goalies start tonight.

The lineup change that matters is Ottawa's. Jake Sanderson is out tonight and tomorrow after an injury in the opener, so Ottawa's 3-2 win at Toronto came with Sanderson in the lineup. Sanderson played 24:50 a night last season with 22 power-play points. Artem Zub is also out and Cameron Crotty makes a season debut. On game day, reports still listed Ottawa's defense pairs differently. Thomas Chabot already played 27:06 in the opener and now has to carry more. The shot suppression Ottawa showed last season came with Sanderson on the ice. Ridly Greig is also listed as suspended.

Boston's missing player is Charlie McAvoy. Boston has played all three games without McAvoy and has allowed 2.33 goals per game, so that absence already shows up in Boston's numbers. Matthew Poitras returns tonight, and Boston's top three forward lines stay together.

The early samples also lean Boston's way. Ottawa won at Toronto with a 39.0% 5-on-5 shot-attempt share, 16.7% shooting and a .958 save percentage. Boston has a 53.0% share across three games with 7.5% shooting, and David Pastrnak has 13 shots without a goal. These are small samples, and I expect Boston's finishing to improve sooner than Ottawa's results hold up.

Ottawa won three of four meetings last season, including a 6-2 win in this building. Those games had Sanderson on Ottawa's blue line and different rosters on both sides. Tonight Boston is home, two days removed from its last game, with Swayman in net at -102. I'll take that price.

The pick & result

Published pick: Boston Bruins ML -102
Published odds: -102
Result: Lost
Final score: 4-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Boston is at home at close to a pick'em price, with the better confirmed goalie, against an Ottawa blue line that just lost its top defenseman.

Injuries noted

Ottawa Senators: Jake Sanderson (Out) — Lower Body; Andre Burakovsky (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Burakovsky (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Monday, according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia.; Blake Montgomery (Injured Reserve) — Undisclosed; Kurtis MacDermid (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. MacDermid (upper body) was moved to the injured non-roster list Monday.; Artem Zub (Injured Reserve) — Knee

Boston Bruins: Charlie McAvoy (Suspension) — Suspension. McAvoy logged an even-strength goal on three shots and four PIM in a game-high 28:35 of ice time during Sunday's 3-2 shootout win over the Capitals in preseason play.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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