Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings

These two clubs finished last season almost dead even. Detroit scored 2.91 goals and allowed 3.10 a game, while Winnipeg scored 2.79 and allowed 3.12. With the teams that close, I'm deciding on the crease and on where the game is played. Winnipeg plays without Connor Hellebuyck, who is suspended. Scott Arniel has not named a starter for the front half of a back-to-back that finishes in Pittsburgh tomorrow, and both goalies will play across the two games. If Stuart Skinner starts, the Jets get a goalie who posted a .888 save percentage over 50 starts last season and opened this year at .867, allowing 4 goals on 30 shots against Boston. If Clay Stevenson starts, they lean on a goalie with 4 NHL starts. John Gibson is the expected Detroit starter. He had a .901 season across 57 starts and stopped 19 of 20 on Friday. Detroit's 0-2 opener against the Rangers looked worse on the scoreboard than on the ice. The Wings won 53.7% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, rising to 59.1% with the score close. They allowed only 21 shots and shot 0.0% at 5-on-5, which should not last. Winnipeg scored three against Boston but held just 43.9% of 5-on-5 attempts. It also got a 33.3% power play from a unit that ran at 18.5% last season. Detroit had the stronger power play last year at 22.6%, and its main pieces all dress: Moritz Seider (28 power play points), Lucas Raymond (27) and Alex DeBrincat (23). The risk on this ticket is down the middle. Detroit is without Dylan Larkin and Marco Kasper. Kasper's absence is new since Friday, which moves Emmitt Finnie up to second line center and puts Carter Mazur into his first game of the season. Winnipeg's top end is intact. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi all project to dress, and Connor put 9 shots on goal in the opener. At an even price, I'll take the home side with the steadier expected goalie and the better opening night process. Winnipeg starts a road trip at 1 PM with no morning skate and an unsettled crease.