Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver's 2-1 start rests on finishing it can't sustain. The Canucks are shooting 20.8% at 5-on-5 after sitting at 8.2% across last season. That is carrying an offense that averages only 23.7 shots per game while allowing 30.7. Their 5-on-5 shot-attempt share is 43.8%, and it drops to 40.6% when the score is close. Edmonton outshot them 37-23 and 31-22. When that shooting percentage comes back to earth, what remains looks like last season's club: 2.56 goals for and 3.83 against per game. Vegas has the sturdier underlying game. The Golden Knights own 54.2% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, put 33.5 shots per game on net and allow 23.0. Their 9.3% 5-on-5 shooting matches last season exactly, so their offense isn't running on luck. The crease points the same way. Reporting this afternoon has Kevin Lankinen as Vancouver's likely starter, with Leevi Merilainen having gone last night, though no starter is confirmed. Lankinen sits at .789 this season and gave up 8 goals on 20 shots against Edmonton on Oct 1. Over 43 starts last year, Lankinen posted .875. A Vegas attack averaging 33.5 shots can test that. Special teams add to the edge. Vancouver's penalty kill is 63.6% this season and was 71.5% last season. It faces a Vegas power play at 33.3% now and 24.6% a year ago. Availability tilts further. Jake DeBrusk is out with an illness, a fresh absence that most of Vancouver's numbers still include. DeBrusk scored 23 goals with 24 power-play points last season. Filip Chytil remains out. Vancouver is also on the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in seven days, while Vegas comes in two days removed from its last game. The risk on this ticket is Vegas goaltending. Carter Hart is at .870 this season. Adin Hill posted .871 last year and has yet to play this season. The team's 5-on-5 save percentage is .850. That is the path to a Vancouver upset. What softens it is volume: Vancouver averages 23.7 shots and managed 26.0 per game last season, so whichever Vegas goalie starts shouldn't be buried in work. Vancouver also scored two goals or fewer in all three meetings last season. At this price Vegas needs to win roughly three times in four. Shot share, the likely goalie matchup, special teams and a fresh Vancouver absence all line up behind the Golden Knights, and I'm laying it.