Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers

Over a full 82-game season, Utah was the better 5-on-5 team in this matchup, and that is where I'm putting my money. Last year the Mammoth controlled 52.9% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, outshot opponents 27.7 to 26.1 per game, and scored 3.27 goals per game while allowing 2.93. The Rangers sat at 48.6%, were outshot 28.8 to 25.2, and allowed more goals (3.04) than they scored (2.87). The opening week follows the same pattern: Utah at 57.8% through two games, New York at 48.4% through three. New York's 2-1 start rests on goaltending. Shots were nearly even in all three games (21-22, 25-24 and 24-23), and a .942 5-on-5 save percentage did the rest. Igor Shesterkin is the better goalie on paper, .912 last season against .897 for Karel Vejmelka. That gap is the strongest argument for the home side, and Vejmelka's late-season log ranged from .967 down to .733, so a bad night is possible. I still prefer the team that spends more of the game in the attacking zone, and at plus money Utah doesn't need to be the favorite to make this a good bet. The back-to-back is the obvious concern, and everyone knows about it. Utah rotated goalies to handle it. Sebastian Cossa started Saturday in Columbus, so Vejmelka, whom the Mammoth's own preview names as the likely starter, did not play last night. André Tourigny reported no lineup changes. Utah has the finishers to turn shot volume into goals. Clayton Keller had 88 points last season, Dylan Guenther scored 40 goals and Nick Schmaltz 33. Guenther and Schmaltz already have three goals apiece this year. Vincent Trocheck returns to the Garden as part of Utah's center group. Utah won both meetings last season, including a 3-2 overtime win at MSG.