NHL · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:00 PM

Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks

O/U 6.5 · SPREAD Florida Panthers -1.5 · Honda Center

GARY'S PICK

NHLvs Panthers· +114

Florida's two results so far came with Aleksander Barkov in the lineup. Tonight is the first game without him after his move to long-term injured reserve on Saturday. Lars Eller moves up to center Brady Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart. Even with Barkov, Florida managed only 23.0 shots per game and a 7.7% power play across two overtime games. The lineup now has to reshuffle, and those results don't reflect that yet. Goaltending doesn't separate these teams. Jacob Markstrom is confirmed for Florida after a 15-shot shutout in Carolina, which was a light test. His 2025-26 season in New Jersey finished at .883 with a 3.07 goals against average. Lukas Dostal is Anaheim's projected starter, at .888 and 3.10 last season. If Ville Husso starts instead, his .884 last year puts him in the same tier. Whoever starts for Anaheim, this is an even matchup in net. Over a full 82 games last season, Anaheim produced more: 30.8 shots and 3.23 goals per game, against Florida's 28.0 and 3.00. The top of the Ducks lineup is intact: - Cutter Gauthier scored 41 goals last season and put 5 shots on net in the opener. - Leo Carlsson had 67 points and Beckett Sennecke had 60. - Jackson LaCombe logged 29:37 at Vegas after a 58-point season. Drew Helleson and Ian Moore were already out for the win in Vegas, so nothing new is missing on Anaheim's side. There are risks. Anaheim was outshot 30 to 20 in Vegas and won on 22.2% shooting at 5-on-5, which won't hold. Florida's 57.9% shot-attempt share shows the Panthers have controlled play, and they killed penalties better last season, 81.0% against 76.4%. Still, this is Anaheim's home opener against a team on game 3 of a road trip, playing its first game without Barkov, with even goaltending. A game this close is worth backing with the home side at +114.

The pick & result

Published pick: Anaheim Ducks ML +114
Published odds: +114
Result: Won
Final score: 2-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Goaltending doesn't separate these teams. Jacob Markstrom is confirmed for Florida after a 15-shot shutout in Carolina, which was a light test. His 2025-26 season in New Jersey finished at .883 with a 3.07 goals against average. Lukas Dostal is Anaheim's projected starter, at .888 and 3.10 last season. If Ville Husso starts instead, his .884 last year puts him in the same tier. Whoever starts for Anaheim, this is an even matchup in net.

Over a full 82 games last season, Anaheim produced more: 30.8 shots and 3.23 goals per game, against Florida's 28.0 and 3.00. The top of the Ducks lineup is intact: - Cutter Gauthier scored 41 goals last season and put 5 shots on net in the opener. - Leo Carlsson had 67 points and Beckett Sennecke had 60. - Jackson LaCombe logged 29:37 at Vegas after a 58-point season.

Drew Helleson and Ian Moore were already out for the win in Vegas, so nothing new is missing on Anaheim's side.

There are risks. Anaheim was outshot 30 to 20 in Vegas and won on 22.2% shooting at 5-on-5, which won't hold. Florida's 57.9% shot-attempt share shows the Panthers have controlled play, and they killed penalties better last season, 81.0% against 76.4%. Still, this is Anaheim's home opener against a team on game 3 of a road trip, playing its first game without Barkov, with even goaltending. A game this close is worth backing with the home side at +114.

Injuries noted

Florida Panthers: Gustav Forsling (Day-To-Day) — Upper Body. Forsling (upper body) is expected to be a game-time decision for Sunday's tilt in Anaheim, per Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site.; Aleksander Barkov (Injured Reserve) — Knee; MacKenzie Entwistle (Injured Reserve) — Undisclosed; Jonah Gadjovich (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Gadjovich (upper body) is out indefinitely, the team announced Thursday.

Anaheim Ducks: Drew Helleson (Injured Reserve) — Lower Body; Troy Terry (Injured Reserve) — Hip. Terry (hip) was moved from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Cavanagh of The Sporting Tribune reports.; Ian Moore (Injured Reserve) — Lower Body

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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