NHL · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:00 PM

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

O/U 5.5 · SPREAD Seattle Kraken -1.5 · Climate Pledge Arena

GARY'S PICK

NHL@ Seattle Kraken· +130

These two clubs finished last season in nearly the same place. Calgary allowed 3.12 goals a game and Seattle allowed 3.13. Calgary was the better five-on-five team by shot-attempt share, 49.2% to 46.0%. It also put 28.1 shots on goal a night to Seattle's 25.6. Seattle closed the gap by finishing better. That profile does not support Seattle at -155, even at home. The first week has moved this number further than the play supports. Calgary has controlled 55.8% of five-on-five shot attempts through two games and has nothing to show for it. It is shooting 2.2% with a .844 save percentage, far below last season's 7.8% and .906. Seattle is shooting 12.2% with a .921 save percentage while taking only 43.0% of the attempts. Calgary is absorbing bad bounces and Seattle is cashing good ones. Two games is too small a stretch to treat either as the real level. The goalie matchup only looks lopsided if you stop at Thursday's game. Dustin Wolf posted .813 against Seattle that night, while Joey Daccord stopped 24 of 25. Over full seasons they are nearly the same goalie: Wolf at .899, Daccord at .897. Late last season the trend favored Wolf. Daccord's closing stretch included .806 against Utah and an early pull against Colorado. Wolf finished with .946 against Colorado and .966 against Utah. Seattle has won three of the last four meetings, including the 6-1 result three days ago, and tonight is its home opener. Calgary landed in Seattle after midnight. Seattle is also playing the second night of a back-to-back after flying home from Edmonton. Its 3.50 goals per game comes almost entirely from the Calgary game, since it scored once on 20 shots in Edmonton. Seattle also killed only 72.2% of its penalties last season, which gives Calgary a path even if its five-on-five shooting stays cold. Calgary has played both games without Jonathan Huberdeau, so his absence is already reflected in these numbers. In a matchup that the full-season numbers rate as close to even, I'll take the plus price on the team whose process has been better.

The first week has moved this number further than the play supports. Calgary has controlled 55.8% of five-on-five shot attempts through two games and has nothing to show for it. It is shooting 2.2% with a .844 save percentage, far below last season's 7.8% and .906. Seattle is shooting 12.2% with a .921 save percentage while taking only 43.0% of the attempts. Calgary is absorbing bad bounces and Seattle is cashing good ones. Two games is too small a stretch to treat either as the real level.

The goalie matchup only looks lopsided if you stop at Thursday's game. Dustin Wolf posted .813 against Seattle that night, while Joey Daccord stopped 24 of 25. Over full seasons they are nearly the same goalie: Wolf at .899, Daccord at .897. Late last season the trend favored Wolf. Daccord's closing stretch included .806 against Utah and an early pull against Colorado. Wolf finished with .946 against Colorado and .966 against Utah.

Seattle has won three of the last four meetings, including the 6-1 result three days ago, and tonight is its home opener. Calgary landed in Seattle after midnight. Seattle is also playing the second night of a back-to-back after flying home from Edmonton. Its 3.50 goals per game comes almost entirely from the Calgary game, since it scored once on 20 shots in Edmonton. Seattle also killed only 72.2% of its penalties last season, which gives Calgary a path even if its five-on-five shooting stays cold.

Calgary has played both games without Jonathan Huberdeau, so his absence is already reflected in these numbers. In a matchup that the full-season numbers rate as close to even, I'll take the plus price on the team whose process has been better.

The pick & result

Published pick: Calgary Flames ML +130
Published odds: +130
Result: Lost
Final score: 1-6

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Calgary Flames: Jonathan Huberdeau (Injured Reserve) — Hip. Huberdeau (hip) was placed on injured reserve Monday, per Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM.

Seattle Kraken: Jacob Melanson (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Melanson (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake O'Brien (Injured Reserve) — Lower Body. O'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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